Tunisia and the Domino Effect in the Islamic World

[Ray]

Anti-Mubarak protesters, police clash

Egyptians angry over joblessness, corruption

CAIRO | Thousands of anti-government protesters, some hurling rocks and climbing atop an armored police truck, clashed with riot police Tuesday in the center of Cairo in a Tunisia-inspired demonstration to demand the end of President Hosni Mubarak's nearly 30 years in power.

Police responded with blasts from water cannons and set upon crowds with batons and acrid clouds of tear gas to clear demonstrators crying out "Down with Mubarak" and demanding an end to Egypt's grinding poverty, corruption, unemployment and police abuses.

Tuesday's demonstration, the largest Egypt has seen in years, began peacefully, with police showing unusual restraint in what appeared to be a calculated strategy by the government to avoid further sullying the image of a security apparatus widely seen as little more than corrupt thugs in uniforms.

As crowds carrying Egyptian and Tunisian flags filled downtown Cairo's main Tahrir Square, however, security personnel changed tactics, and the protest turned violent. The scenes had particular resonance because Tuesday also was a national holiday honoring the much-feared police.

Demonstrators attacked a water-cannon truck, opening the driver's door and ordering the man out of the vehicle. Some hurled rocks and dragged metal barricades. Officers beat back protesters with batons as they tried to break cordons to join the main group of demonstrators downtown.

More at:

Washington Times

So has the domino effect started in the Islamic countries?

In such strict and regulated societies, such happenings occuring spontaneously, does appear suspect.

What's up?

 

[Ray]

What's Next for Tunisia?

By MICHAEL MEYER-RESENDE and PAUL O'GRADY
Published: January 26, 2011

Tunisia's uprising enters its second week since Zine el-Abidine Ben-Ali's departure, but its direction has become unclear. Will Mohamed Ghannouchi's government stay in power, or will it become a short-lived episode in the old regime's demise?

The uncertainty reflects the fact that the uprising is a true people's movement. Tunisians agreed that Ben-Ali had to go. But no coherent opposition force has emerged to pose key demands and drive events.

Instead, a void opened up, into which stepped the self-described technocrats of the old regime who formed a government and offered their own reading of events. They readily confess that Ben-Ali's rule was undemocratic, but suggest that this can be changed and that they are the best-placed to do it.

The protesters, trade unions and opposition figures see things differently. In their eyes, the state is so flawed after decades of dictatorship that it needs to be dismantled and rebuilt rather than fixed, but not by the people who undermined and abused it in the first place.

However, their message is neither loud nor clear. The trade unions have flip-flopped by first agreeing to government representation and then withdrawing their ministers. Until now, no widely agreed list of demands has emerged that would provide a roadmap up to and beyond elections. Consequently, the various opposition forces seem disoriented, if not divided. While most Tunisians would be happy to see the old regime go completely, they are also afraid that things could get out of hand.

The lack of drive by the opposition forces has weakened the protest movement's sense of purpose. While all are demanding democratic presidential and parliamentary elections, the way to get there has not been outlined. Thorny challenges involved in untangling the country's constitutional makeup need to be resolved if a drift into anarchy is to be avoided.

Most importantly, the chicken-and-egg problem of transition needs to be resolved: Should reforms to create the context for genuinely democratic elections come first, or should elections be held quickly, even though the country's current laws are not fit for the purpose? The risk with the first route is that the opposition could lose momentum and give the old Parliament and other institutions too much of a role in the transition. The risk with the alternative is that the elections would be undermined by an undemocratic framework.

The specific Tunisian context must also be considered: The Poles had Lech Walesa and Solidarity, and the South Africans had Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress, but Tunisia's opposition has no leading politician or party. This may be one reason why it seems to be looking at a timeframe of six months for elections, rather than six weeks. The opposition needs time to engage with the electorate.

Another difficulty concerns timing. According to the Constitution, the presidential election should be held by March 15. If the Constitution is ignored, it may imply that the legal framework has been abandoned, which could create a legal and political vacuum. A woman cannot be a little bit pregnant and a constitution cannot be ignored just a little bit. Unfortunately the Constitution also stipulates that it cannot be amended in the interim period, though it does contain a provision on postponing elections "because of imminent danger."

Finally, the opposition movement has not said much about the sequencing of elections. Even if the Constitution is overruled it may make sense to start with the presidential election, which can be organized more easily. A democratically elected president would then provide the legitimacy necessary to stabilize and consolidate the transition. However, in such a scenario there is a risk that as the only legitimately elected person in the country, the new president could turn into the next dictator.

There are no obvious answers to these difficult questions. But the various opposition forces need to address them urgently, otherwise the political space will be filled by others. A political vacuum also risks compelling the army into action. If the strength of the people's movement is not channeled into political negotiations, its broad-based character is in danger of becoming a liability. It is time for the opposition forces to find a consensus on their demands and to make them — loud and clear.

Michael Meyer-Resende and Paul O'Grady are directors of Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based NGO promoting political participation.
A version of this op-ed appeared in print on January 27, 2011, in The International Herald Tribune.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/opinion/27iht-edmeyer27.html?ref=global

The issue does not stop with Tunisia.

The question is what next for the Sheikdoms, and quasi democratic regimes of North Africa and the Middle East?

Will it have any repercussion on the activities of the AQ in Asia and North Africa, where it has made inroads?

Will there be any effect in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

 

[Ray]

Will Egypt's protests go the way of Tunisia's revolution?

By Mona Eltahawy
Wednesday, January 26, 2011

To understand what drove tens of thousands of Egyptians to erupt Tuesday in the largest protests in a generation against President Hosni Mubarak, you only had to see one photo of events in El-Mahalla El-Kubra, a Nile Delta factory city where an estimated 5,000 people turned out.

Some images from Tuesday show Egyptian police beating unarmed protesters and throwing rocks at them (sadly, an increasingly common tactic). But a photo of a man and a woman standing in Mahalla, posted on the citizen journalists' Web site Rassd News Network, instantly conveys why Egyptians have taken to the streets.

The woman holds a loaf of bread and a Tunisian flag. The man next to her holds a loaf of bread and a sign that reads "Yesterday Tunisia. Today Egypt. Jan. 25 the day we began to take our rights back."

It was no accident that the protests coincided with Police Day, as youthful activists sought to focus attention not on a sham holiday but, instead, on the systematic brutality associated with Mubarak's security services. Egyptians in Mahalla in particular have smarted since three people were killed there by police in 2008 during massive protests that followed months of strikes.

The big question now is how loyal the armed forces are to Mubarak and what role, if any, they will play should the protests escalate. Thousands of citizens set up camp in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday and vowed to occupy the space until Mubarak resigns. News reports from journalists and Twitter updates early Wednesday morning indicated that at about 1 a.m., security forces began forcibly emptying the square, spraying tear gas and arresting people. Protesters have promised more demonstrations.

Since a four-week uprising in Tunisia ended the 23-year rule of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali this month, the Arab world has been in a tizzy. Tunisia's revolution marked the first time Arabs toppled one of their leaders. While ordinary citizens wondered whether the "Tunisia effect" might spread, long-serving rulers were conspicuously silent or protested (too much) that their country had nothing in common with Ben Ali's mismanaged nation.
ad_icon

For years, Western observers of the Arab world have effectively helped shore up the dictators by stating as fact that Arabs don't revolt. Much to Egyptian pain and chagrin, analysts would point to our country, where protests have been the preserve of a small, dedicated but not always connected group of activists. Mubarak, the longest-serving ruler in modern-day Egypt, would smartly give in to enough of workers' demands as necessary to appease; then his security forces would beat and detain the street activists who persevered.

Whether tensions ran high over rigged elections, food shortages, Internet censoring, media repression or police brutality, the conventional wisdom has held that Mubarak would sleep without worry until thousands of Egyptians took to the streets.

Finally, on Tuesday, feet were on the ground. Thousands turned out in Cairo, Alexandria and across the country as the anti-government fervor fired up not just activists but families, too.

Watching Tunisians make possible what Arabs have always been told was impossible burned away the apathy that bound Egyptians - and revealed decades' worth of smoldering rage. It also destroyed the myth of youth "slactivists" who some alleged were content with organizing on the Internet and speaking out only on social networking sites.

Young Egyptians, like their Tunisian counterparts, are the majority of the country's population. They have known no leadership other than what they see as Mubarak's occupation.

Since becoming president in 1981, Mubarak has kept Egypt under a "state of emergency" that allows him to suspend regular laws. He has turned our country into a police state where torture and brutality often go unpunished, and he has jailed an estimated 12,000 to 14,000 political opponents.

Mubarak accused his main political opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, of provoking police violence on Tuesday, but the Islamist movement did not collectively join in. Although many individual members took to the streets, the Brotherhood said it would symbolically support activists' call to protest but would not ask its members to mobilize as a movement. That's a wise step in countering regime accusations but could affect its credibility with youth activists disaffected by politics.

Unlike Tunisia, Egypt is a major U.S. ally. When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday that the Obama administration's "assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," she showed once again how out of touch she is with popular anger at Mubarak. She also alerted Egyptians that Washington was as concerned about the protests and the potential "Egypt effect" as Mubarak must be.

Mona Eltahawy is an Egyptian-born writer and lecturer on Arab and Muslim issues. Her e-mail address is [email protected].

Quo Vadis

More material to mull upon.

 

[Ray]

In Lebanon, Sunnis stage angry protests against Hezbollah-backed prime minister

Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, January 25, 2011; 9:04 PM

TRIPOLI, LEBANON - Sunni Arabs took to the streets of Lebanon on Tuesday to protest the country's new prime minister and the growing influence of Hezbollah, the Shiite armed movement.

he crowds of Sunnis in Beirut and this northern city numbered just a few thousand. But the protesters' bitter rhetoric suggested that the ongoing political crisis here is hardening sectarian divisions and could lead to large-scale civil unrest.

The constitution in this sharply divided country requires that the prime minister be a Sunni. But Najib Mikati, the Sunni billionaire who took over that position Tuesday, did so with the support of Hezbollah, prompting accusations that he had betrayed his own people.

His appointment indicated an important shift in power in Lebanon, where the influence of the United States and its Sunni Arab allies in the region is waning, while that of Syria and Iran - which support Hezbollah - is growing.

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the United States hopes that Lebanon's government will represent its people, and not outside forces.

And State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley added, "The make-up of Lebanon's government is a Lebanese decision, but this decision should not be reached through coercion, intimidation, and threats of violence. Unfortunately, Hezbollah, backed by Syria, engaged in all three in pursuit of its political goals."

The protests in Beirut and Tripoli quickly turned violent as people burned tires in the streets and threw rocks at vehicles and passersby, cursing what they considered the Shiite consolidation of power in Lebanon. They attacked journalists and torched a news van, prompting the Lebanese Army in some parts of Beirut to use tear gas to contain the crowds.

"We are all named Sunni today," one demonstrator, his face covered in a scarf, said when asked to identify himself. Tires and garbage burned behind him, with orange flames shooting in the sky.

The government of Saad Hariri collapsed two weeks ago when Hezbollah and its allies pulled out of his cabinet to protest the then-prime minister's refusal to renounce a controversial U.N. tribunal investigating the assassination of his father and 22 others in 2005. Sealed indictments issued last week are believed to accuse some members of Hezbollah. The group, the most powerful military force in the country, denies the allegations and calls the tribunal an American and Israeli tool to attack it.

This week, Hezbollah garnered enough support in parliament to oust Hariri from power, and Mikati -former premier who is known as a neutral figure - won the backing of a parliamentary majority and became prime minister.

On Tuesday, Mikati promised to work for a national unity government that represented all people in this mixed nation of Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Christians and Druze. He rejected attempts to cast him as Hezbollah's prime minister and pledged to reach out to Hariri.
ad_icon

"There should be no party that doesn't want to take part in this kind of government," he said. "I will always stay moderate - in the middle. I call for calm."

But in this northern port city, Mikati's home town, Hariri supporters railed against Iranian influence in Lebanon and called Mikati, who was once allied with Hariri, a traitor.

Lawmakers close to Hariri likened Mikati's appointment to a coup. Demonstrators cursed the head of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, who is revered in much of the Shiite community, and chanted for Mikati to get out.

Khalid Dhaher, a Sunni lawmaker, called the prime minister's seat "the throne of the Sunni people" and issued what he called "an open message to the Islamic world and the Arab world that Lebanon is in danger."

Demonstrators hung from rooftops and filled the traffic square in the center of the city. Nearby, men gathered and screamed at a rooftop cameraman from a television channel generally sympathetic to Hezbollah. They tried to rush the building, but the army stopped them.

One demonstrator warned that the Sunni community would do anything to bring back Hariri. He vowed to fight what he views as a Hezbollah-controlled government that he and other protesters think would essentially be controlled by Iran; others said that if Lebanese Shiites want Iranian rule, they should go to Iran.

"If Iran wants to fight us, then we have no choice but [to join] al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden," said Abeed Daknash, a demonstrator in Tripoli, a city known for Sunni religious extremism. "Saad Hariri or al-Qaeda," he warned.

He also asked for U.S. help in arming those who are willing to fight.

"Why is Iran supporting Hezbollah with guns and everything they need," he said. "If they are against the Iranian project the U.S. should support us."

Officials close to Mikati said that he is not concerned about the protests and that they do not represent the Sunni community as a whole.

As the demonstrations grew out of control, Hariri called for calm from his supporters.

"You are the first line of defense - I will be with you in good or bad - and together we will protect and defend Lebanon," he said, standing in front of a portrait of his father. "We are today an angry people, but we are responsible for coexistence and civil peace."

But, for the first time since the crisis began, Hezbollah's leader broke his calm demeanor. During a televised address Tuesday afternoon, Nasrallah slammed Hariri and his March 14 alliance for using sectarian rhetoric and accused the United States of pitting one political coalition against another.

"Saying that Mikati is Hezbollah's candidate is a sectarian provocation," Nasrallah said. "The next prime minister will not be Hezbollah's, nor will the next cabinet. This is only said to provoke [foreign powers] against Lebanon, [including] the U.S. and Israel."

He added: "It is up to the Lebanese. If [we] do not seek to form a national unity cabinet, where are [we] taking the country?"

Special correspondent Moe Ali Nayel contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...25/AR2011012501897_2.html?sid=ST2011012501899

More unrest.

The Middle East is the most unstable of regions in the world and these happenings can have serious consequences.

 

[Ray]

A Region's Unrest Scrambles U.S. Foreign Policy

By MARK LANDLER
Published: January 25, 2011

WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration confronts the spectacle of angry protesters and baton-wielding riot police officers from Tunisia to Egypt to Lebanon, it is groping for a plan to deal with an always-vexing region that is now suddenly spinning in dangerous directions.

In Egypt, where a staunch ally, President Hosni Mubarak, faced the fiercest protests in years on Tuesday, and Lebanon, where a Hezbollah-backed government is taking shape, the administration is grappling with volatile, potentially hostile forces that have already realigned the region's political landscape.

These were surprising turns. But even the administration's signature project in the region — Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations — became even more intractable this week, with the publication of confidential documents detailing Palestinian concessions offered in talks with Israel. The disclosure makes it less likely that the Palestinians will agree to any further concessions.

In interviews in recent days, officials acknowledged that the United States had limited influence over many actors in the region, and that the upheaval in Egypt, in particular, could scramble its foreign-policy agenda.

So it is proceeding gingerly, balancing the democratic aspirations of young Arabs with cold-eyed strategic and commercial interests. That sometimes involves supporting autocratic and unpopular governments — which has turned many of those young people against the United States.

President Obama called Mr. Mubarak last week, after the uprising in Tunisia, to talk about joint projects like the Middle East peace process, even as he emphasized the need to meet the democratic aspirations of the Tunisian protesters.

Mr. Obama repeated this point during his State of the Union address on Tuesday, saying, "Tonight, let us be clear: the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people," a reference, a White House official said, to the protesters in Egypt.

The White House warned Hezbollah against coercion and intimidation, and officials said the United States might go as far as pulling hundreds of millions of dollars of aid from Lebanon. The administration sent a senior diplomat, Jeffrey D. Feltman, to Tunisia to express support for pro-democracy forces as they prepared for elections after the ouster of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

While there are important differences between North Africa and Lebanon, the two situations pose similar challenges.

Some analysts argue that the United States should seize on Tunisia to advance democracy across the Middle East — reprising the "freedom agenda" of the Bush administration and providing Mr. Obama a rare opportunity to deliver on pledges to build bridges to the Muslim world.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton came closest to doing that in Qatar two weeks ago, when she bluntly criticized Arab leaders for their autocratic ways, a mere 24 hours before Mr. Ben Ali was driven from office. But Mrs. Clinton's speech does not augur a return to the Bush approach, officials said.

For one thing, clamoring for democracy did not work so well for President George W. Bush, administration officials said. More important, a wave of upheaval could uproot valuable allies. An uprising in Tunisia, a peripheral player in the region, is not the same as one in Egypt, a linchpin. The Egyptian government is a crucial ally to Washington, but the population is very suspicious of American motives, and the potential for Islamic extremism lurks. "These countries are going to go at a different pace," said Daniel B. Shapiro, a senior Middle East adviser on the National Security Council. "One couldn't, or shouldn't try, to come up with a cookie-cutter ideal of how to approach it."

The administration has tried to balance its ties to Mr. Mubarak with expressions of concern about rigged elections and jailed dissidents in his country. But it may find it harder to avoid singling him out if the crowds keep building in Cairo, as separate statements of concern about the protests in Egypt, released by the White House and State Department late Tuesday, suggested.

"The challenge for the administration is to find the right balance between identifying the U.S. too closely with these changes, and thereby undermining them; and not finding ways to nurture them enough," said Aaron David Miller, a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

"They don't yet know how to do that," he said.

Some critics say the administration erred by putting the peace process at the center of its strategy for the region, overlooking a restive Arab population. "They put U.S.-Egyptian relations within the prism of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," said Elliott Abrams, a Middle East adviser in the Bush administration. "But what happens in Egypt originates in Egypt."

Mr. Obama came into office determined to play down the Bush administration's Iraq-centered "freedom agenda," the very public push for democratic change. In his speech to the Islamic world in Cairo in June 2009, Mr. Obama said each country should chart its own path to democracy and rejected military intervention as a way to accelerate the process.

Instead, the administration has worked with pro-democracy groups to advocate for freer media and assembly. It has pushed for outside monitors to scrutinize elections in Jordan and Egypt. And it has encouraged social networks like Twitter and Facebook to spread the word about pro-democracy movements — the very networks that helped spread word of demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt.

"In giving us guidance as we develop our policies in the region, the president was adamant that we take stock of the brittleness and hidden risks of the status quo," said Samantha Power, a senior director at the National Security Council who handles human rights issues.

But critics say bottom-up efforts have failed to open up political space in Arab countries. Despite the push for monitors in Egypt, its recent parliamentary elections were judged less honest than elections in 2005. Steven Heydemann, a vice president at the United States Institute of Peace, argued in a blog post this week that the time had come for the United States to confront Arab leaders more forcefully, demanding that they repeal emergency laws and scrap state security courts, which they use to exercise arbitrary power.

Administration officials said they pressed Mr. Mubarak repeatedly not to reinstate Egypt's emergency law, which has been in place since 1981. He did so anyway, but officials said he released virtually all the political prisoners that were on a list compiled by Human Rights Watch. In his call with Mr. Mubarak, Mr. Obama also linked the bombing of a Coptic Christian church to the rights of religious minorities.

Still, critics say the pressure has been mostly in private, which does little to build support among impatient young Arabs. Some analysts say the big question is whether the administration should seize on Tunisia as a lever to push for change elsewhere.

"If Tunisia works out, that could be much more of an inspiration to Arab countries than Iraq ever was," said Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It is an unexpected windfall. That's why they should be making the most of it."

David D. Kirkpatrick contributed reporting from Tunis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/world/26diplo.html?_r=1&ref=world

The turmoil in North Africa and the it creeping into the Middle East will surely give the US many a sleepless night, especially since this region is as fickle as the wind.

In case, these govts topple, there is no guarantee that there will be democratic govts. There could be radicals and their could be fundamentalist based govts.

How will this turmoil affect international geostrategy and geopolitics?

It must be also taken into account that the Mediterranean Rim is strategically important to the countries bordering it, especially the European ones and more so, those who had colonial past with the Nations on the Rim.

What will be its effect on the US and its position as the global policeman?

 

[Tshering22]

You know this is the problem in entire Muslim world-- all are despotic in that part of the world and in most cases, US puppets. These guys create the impression that the entire West would be like their oppression and push the people to dangerous ideologies like jihadi mentality. Look what happened in Iran in 1979; one tyrant's collapse brought the mulla company to power. If this happens in Arab world including Saudi, then there is going to be a dangerous rise in jihadi terrorism because the now in-control mullas would use their previous suppression as an excuse to silence anybody.

Saudi is already tipping the scale. Their king's iron fist rule and their compromise with Salafi clerics has a lot of tensions that is not being spoken of much in the open. On a short trip to Middle East, I had the opportunity to talk to this smart Jordanian female who (surprisingly for Arab women) was quite open and we discussed about this.

Lebanon is already in the grips of Hezbollah and Iran's puppets. Syria is also ruled by an absolutist president. The domino effect would be dangerous.

 

[ejazr]

As Arabs protest, Obama administration offers assertive support
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/26/AR2011012608249.html

The Obama administration is openly supporting the anti-government demonstrations shaking the Arab Middle East, a stance that is far less tempered than the one the president has taken during past unrest in the region.

As demonstrations in Tunis, Cairo and Beirut have unfolded in recent days, President Obama and his senior envoys to the region have thrown U.S. support clearly behind the protesters, speaking daily in favor of free speech and assembly even when the protests target longtime U.S. allies such as Egypt.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that "the Egyptian government has an important opportunity . . . to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people." She urged "the Egyptian authorities not to prevent peaceful protests or block communications, including on social media sites."

Asked whether the administration supports Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs replied only: "Egypt is a strong ally."

Administration officials say they will pursue a dual-track approach in the coming weeks, both speaking with civil activists in Egypt and meeting with officials to encourage reform in the bellwether Arab nation.

Such an approach comes with a degree of risk in the region, where democratic reforms have often empowered well-organized Islamist movements at odds with U.S. objectives. As a result, the United States has often favored the stability of authoritarian allies in the Middle East over the uncertainty of democratic change.
ad_icon
Advertisement

The administration's assertive stance contrasts sharply with Obama's approach during his first year in office, when he often tempered his advocacy of human rights and democracy with a large measure of pragmatism. His decision this time reflects the rising importance of those issues in his foreign policy goals.

The president is also less reluctant to inject the United States into the Arab Middle East after two years of speaking directly to the Muslim world, withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq and supporting a Israeli-Palestinian peace process, even though it has since faltered. Polls show U.S. popularity rising in many Arab countries since Obama took office and falling in a smaller number of others.

"Some of the confidence and assertiveness comes from having spent time in government, and now we've identified ways where we want to make our push," said a senor administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss White House thinking on the Middle East developments.

The official said Obama's emphasis on Internet freedom as well as on U.S.-funded programs to foster rule of law and government accountability are among the measures the administration is using to foster change.

"We've aligned our approach to where we see the currents of democratic reform moving," the official said.

On the sidelines in Iran

In his June 2009 address in Cairo to the Islamic world, Obama said "there is no straight line to realize this promise" of democratic government with respect for human rights. He offered mild advice to the region's autocrats, saying that "governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure."

But within weeks, tens of thousands of Iranians rallied in the streets after presidential elections widely believed to have been rigged in favor of the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

While calling on the Iranian government to respect the right of its people to demonstrate peacefully, Obama stayed largely on the sidelines as the Green Movement rose and fell under the weight of a government crackdown.

One senior administration official said at the time: "There is clearly a debate going on among Iranians about Iran. This is not about us." Conservatives criticized Obama for not calling for the Iranian government's overthrow.

Obama signaled a different approach to democracy last fall in his address to the U.N. General Assembly, where, in addition to calling for a final settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, he elevated human rights as a tenet of his foreign policy.

With the young populations, epidemic unemployment and political stagnation of the Arab world as his tacit target, Obama said that "America is working to shape a world that fosters . . . openness, for the rot of a closed or corrupt economy must never eclipse the energy and innovation of human beings."

But many in the Middle East have heard U.S. pledges of support before.

"Why should we follow American advice in the name of democracy?" asked Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader in Lebanon who recently threw his movement's support behind Hezbollah's choice for prime minister at the expense of the U.S.-backed candidate. "They have nothing to teach us when they have supported dictators."

No anti-U.S. rhetoric

While the current unrest is directed against U.S. allies, all of it is dictated by distinct political circumstances largely beyond Washington's control. So far, at least, the demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia have not featured anti-American rhetoric or been shaped by political Islam.

And in Lebanon, where Hezbollah, the armed Shiite movement, has pushed through its preferred candidate for prime minister, the United States has little leverage.

Administration officials say Obama has, as a result, felt less constrained in taking a firm position in favor of democratic reform, without fear that the United States will be blamed for instigating the unrest.

"Democracy had been characterized in some quarters as the United States seeking to control countries," said the senior official. "What we've made clear in the last few years is that democracy is important to the United States because of who we are, but not as a means of controlling governments. Quite the contrary, we're supporting a process in Tunisia now that we do not know how it will end or who will emerge as leader."

On Tuesday, Obama used his State of the Union address to highlight the Tunisian demonstrations, which this month drove authoritarian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali from power after more than two decades.

"The will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator," he said, adding that "the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia and supports the democratic aspirations of all people."

The senior administration official said the events in Tunisia played out as the speech was being drafted, and Obama settled on them as the example he would use to promote democratic values.

The Egyptian protests arose too late in the drafting process for inclusion, but the official said that last phrase was "intended to convey that we recognize that what happened in Tunisia resonated around the world."

Tunisia has never been a hotbed of Islamism, and the opposition has not claimed a religious mandate to govern. A day before Ben Ali was ousted from power, Clinton criticized Arab leaders for the autocratic control they exert on their societies.

Jeffrey Feltman, the top U.S. diplomat for the region, said during a visit to Tunisia this week that "I certainly expect that we'll be using the Tunisian example" in urging other Arab leaders to change.

Egypt, a longtime U.S. ally that has received billions of dollars annually in aid, is an influential player in the Arab world. The country's largest and most organized opposition is the Muslim Brotherhood, the seminal Islamist movement, which has declined so far to officially join the demonstrations.

"The most the U.S. can do in the short run is reorient their rhetoric," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Institution's Doha Center. "People want moral support; they want to hear words of encouragement. Right now, they don't have that. They feel the world doesn't care and the world is working against them."

 

[Iamanidiot]

I think those countries which have oil will not be allowed to fall but the rest of the countries with out oil will have regime changes

 

[SHASH2K2]

Tanks at Egypt government offices, pyramids closed​

CAIRO: Tanks guarded key government building around Cairo and the central square Saturday as protesters returned to the streets a day after massive and violent confrontations emboldened the movement demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. The Cabinet resigned in the midst of rampant looting across the sprawling city and the death toll since protests began rose to 45.

Dozens of military armored personnel carriers and tanks as well as soldiers on foot deployed around a number of key government buildings in the capital, including state television and the foreign ministry after thousands of protesters besieged the two offices in Friday's riots. The military was protecting important tourist and archaeological sites such as the Egyptian Museum, home to some of the country's most treasured antiquities, as well as the Cabinet building. The pyramids on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt's premiere tourist site, were closed by the military to tourists.

On Friday, protesters burned down the ruling party's headquarters complex along the Nile in one of the more dramatic scenes in a day of utter chaos.

The demonstrators did not appear satisfied with Mubarak's actions to address the discontent. The president of 30 years fired his Cabinet late Friday night and promised reforms, which many doubt he will deliver.

"What we want is for Mubarak to leave, not just his government," Mohammed Mahmoud, a demonstrator in the city's main Tahrir Square, said Saturday. "We will not stop protesting until he goes."

As the protests entered their fifth straight day, the military extended a night curfew imposed Friday in the three major cities where the worst violence has been seen, Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. State television reported the curfew would now begin at 4pm and last until 8 am, longer than the 6 pm to 7 am ban Friday night that appeared to not have been enforced.

Internet appeared blocked for a second day to hamper protesters who use social networking sites to organize. And after cell phone service was cut for a day Friday, two of the country's major providers were up and running Saturday.

After years of simmering discontent in this nation where protests are generally limited, Egyptians were emboldened to take to the streets by the uprising in Tunisia, another North African Arab nation.

But a police crackdown drew harsh criticism from the Obama administration and even a threat Friday to reduce a $1.5 billion foreign aid program if Washington's most important Arab ally escalates the use of force.

Stepping up the pressure, President Barack Obama told a news conference he called Mubarak immediately after his TV address and urged the Egyptian leader to take "concrete steps" to expand rights and refrain from violence against protesters.

"The United States will continue to stand up for the rights of the Egyptian people and work with their government in pursuit of a future that is more just, more free and more hopeful," Obama said.

Sen. John Kerry, a Democrat and chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland, said Saturday he believes Mubarak must address the issues that matter to the people of Egypt.

"Dismissing the government doesn't speak to some of those challenges," he said. "I think he's got to speak more to the real issues that people feel," he said. "Dismissing the government doesn't speak to some of those challenges."

Read more: Tanks at Egypt government offices, pyramids closed - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-closed/articleshow/7385396.cms#ixzz1CQlOXWyk

 

[S.A.T.A]

The joke about Ben Ali,the former Tunisian dictator, stopping his plane in Cairo to pick up Mubarak on his way into exile,was so prophetic...Mubarak however is no Ben Ali and the security apparatus he operates is much more efficient and less likely to crumble so easily,the guys in Cairo's streets should expect to stay on the streets a while longer and not be taken in by any promise of reforms by Mubarak.

There is a possibility that Egyptian military establishment,might be willing to sacrifice Mubarak to keep their hold on power, by carrying out a coup against Mubarak and thus take the sting out of the current series of massive demonstrations,once the momentum is lost you cannot gather it up again and all hopes of complete change will be lost.Revolution must stay up and the streets occupied until Mubarak goes..........

Its not every day that one can claim to be making history,Egyptians on the streets of Cairo have this one chance to make history and not just learn about it in history books

 

[civfanatic]

Interesting to see how Libya avoided the crisis in North Africa. Oil really is king!

Personally, I doubt the "domino effect" will continue on into Saudi Arabia and any other oil-rich countries. It will most likely stop in Egypt.

 

[S.A.T.A]

Syria is another Apple that is ripe for revolution and could drop if the strong breeze of revolution blows its way,there are already reports coming from Syria that the Assad govt has imposed internet blackouts to prevent Tunisian-Egyptian style organized protests.If Mubarak survives the revolution,Assad can breath easy,if Mubarak goes Assad will have revolution on his hands and on the streets of Damascus.

The Persian gulf states,including Saudi Arabia,may not have distributed power,but to an extent and largely thanks to their oil windfalls,have managed to distribute wealth,to a level where economic prosperity has managed to neutralize any pent up frustration resulting from lack of political reforms.However to what extent this will shield the sheikdoms from the rage of the people is a moot point.

 

[Ray]

Next Question for Tunisia: The Role of Islam in Politics

By THOMAS FULLER
Published: February 20, 2011

TUNIS — The Tunisian revolution that overthrew decades of authoritarian rule has entered a delicate new phase in recent days over the role of Islam in politics. Tensions mounted here last week when military helicopters and security forces were called in to carry out an unusual mission: protecting the city's brothels from a mob of zealots.

Police officers dispersed a group of rock-throwing protesters who streamed into a warren of alleyways lined with legally sanctioned bordellos shouting, "God is great!" and "No to brothels in a Muslim country!"

Five weeks after protesters forced out the country's dictator, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisians are locked in a fierce and noisy debate about how far, or even whether, Islamism should be infused into the new government.

About 98 percent of the population of 10 million is Muslim, but Tunisia's liberal social policies and Western lifestyle shatter stereotypes of the Arab world. Abortion is legal, polygamy is banned and women commonly wear bikinis on the country's Mediterranean beaches. Wine is openly sold in supermarkets and imbibed at bars across the country.


Women's groups say they are concerned that in the cacophonous aftermath of the revolution, conservative forces could tug the country away from its strict tradition of secularism.

"Nothing is irreversible," said Khadija Cherif, a former head of the Tunisian Association of Democratic Women, a feminist organization. "We don't want to let down our guard."

Ms. Cherif was one of thousands of Tunisians who marched through Tunis, the capital, on Saturday demanding the separation of mosque and state in one of the largest demonstrations since the overthrow of Mr. Ben Ali.

Protesters held up signs saying, "Politics ruins religion and religion ruins politics."


They were also mourning the killing on Friday of a Polish priest by unknown attackers. That assault was also condemned by the country's main Muslim political movement, Ennahdha, or Renaissance, which was banned under Mr. Ben Ali's dictatorship but is now regrouping.

In interviews in the Tunisian news media, Ennahdha's leaders have taken pains to praise tolerance and moderation, comparing themselves to the Islamic parties that govern Turkey and Malaysia.

"We know we have an essentially fragile economy that is very open toward the outside world, to the point of being totally dependent on it," Hamadi Jebali, the party's secretary general, said in an interview with the Tunisian magazine Réalités. "We have no interest whatsoever in throwing everything away today or tomorrow."

The party, which is allied with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, says it opposes the imposition of Islamic law in Tunisia.

But some Tunisians say they remain unconvinced.

Raja Mansour, a bank employee in Tunis, said it was too early to tell how the Islamist movement would evolve.

"We don't know if they are a real threat or not," she said. "But the best defense is to attack." By this she meant that secularists should assert themselves, she said.

Ennahdha is one of the few organized movements in a highly fractured political landscape. The caretaker government that has managed the country since Mr. Ben Ali was ousted is fragile and weak, with no clear leadership emerging from the revolution.

The unanimity of the protest movement against Mr. Ben Ali in January, the uprising that set off demonstrations across the Arab world, has since evolved into numerous daily protests by competing groups, a development that many Tunisians find unsettling.

"Freedom is a great, great adventure, but it's not without risks," said Fathi Ben Haj Yathia, an author and former political prisoner. "There are many unknowns."

One of the largest demonstrations since Mr. Ben Ali fled took place on Sunday in Tunis, where several thousand protesters marched to the prime minister's office to demand the caretaker government's resignation. They accused it of having links to Mr. Ben Ali's government.

Tunisians are debating the future of their country on the streets. Avenue Habib Bourguiba, the broad thoroughfare in central Tunis named after the country's first president, resembles a Roman forum on weekends, packed with people of all ages excitedly discussing politics.

The freewheeling and somewhat chaotic atmosphere across the country has been accompanied by a breakdown in security that has been particularly unsettling for women. With the extensive security apparatus of the old government decimated, leaving the police force in disarray, many women now say they are afraid to walk outside alone at night.

Achouri Thouraya, a 29-year-old graphic artist, says she has mixed feelings toward the revolution.

She shared in the joy of the overthrow of what she described as Mr. Ben Ali's kleptocratic government. But she also says she believes that the government's crackdown on any Muslim groups it considered extremist, a draconian police program that included monitoring those who prayed regularly, helped protect the rights of women.

"We had the freedom to live our lives like women in Europe," she said.

But now Ms. Thouraya said she was a "little scared."

She added, "We don't know who will be president and what attitudes he will have toward women."

Mounir Troudi, a jazz musician, disagrees. He has no love for the former Ben Ali government, but said he believed that Tunisia would remain a land of beer and bikinis.

"This is a maritime country," Mr. Troudi said. "We are sailors, and we've always been open to the outside world. I have confidence in the Tunisian people. It's not a country of fanatics."


We are not Fanatics

Religion can creep in and that will be the unfortunate face of the overthrow of the 'kleptocratic' government.

However, fundamentalism may have a harrowing time to exert itself since Tunisia has always had a liberal attitude to life where western culture also played its role and the people inculcating the open attitude that is equated with the West.

Can the beer, nightclub and brothel culture be replaced by religious fundamentalism?

If it does, will it not affect the remainder part of the Arab world?

If it does, what will be the consequences on the geopolitical and geostrategic matrix of North Africa and the Middle East?

 

[pmaitra]

The current violence in Libya is worth watching.

Latest news as of now: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12535883

Will Libya succeed in defeating the protesters? If it does, then the domino effect will probably stop. If it does not, it might spread to other countries in the Middle East.

One thing to note here is that so many authoritarian regimes (some of them) supported by the US will crumble. This is a growing concern for the US and its implicit control over of oil producing countries.