Troubling signs of the rise of Chinese ultra-nationalists

Discussion in 'China' started by Ray, Mar 5, 2013.

  1. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Excerpts from:

    www.canberratimes.com.au -

    Troubling signs of the rise of Chinese ultra-nationalists
    Troubling signs of the rise of Chinese ultra-nationalists

    Date: February 13 2013


    Michael Richardson

    The recent Japanese protest that Chinese warships recently locked their weapons-control radars on to a Japanese navy destroyer and a military helicopter in two separate incidents not far from the bitterly disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea raises disturbing questions.

    One is the extent to which effective civilian control is being exercised over the armed forces in China. If the military, or rogue ultra-nationalist officers, call the shots in a crisis that potentially involves not just Japan but also its ally, the United States, it could trigger a wider war that would destabilise the Asia-Pacific region.

    After several days of silence, China's Defence Ministry posted a denial on its website on Friday. It said that the radars on the frigates ''kept normal observation and were on alert'', but in neither case were fire-control radars used.

    Japan rejected the account and said that it was considering releasing data that would prove the fire-control radar was directed at its destroyer.

    Japan's Defence Minister, Itsunori Onodera, had earlier warned China it may have violated the United Nations Charter by threatening force against Japan, which administers the uninhabited Senkakus in the teeth of rival ownerships claims from China and Taiwan.

    In an apparent sign of escalating militarisation in the dispute, Japanese officials say the Chinese navy's use of weapons-targeting radar was highly threatening because it could signal preparations either for a missile or shelling attack..........



    The official said the destroyer was targeted ''for several minutes'' on January 30 by a Chinese frigate about three kilometres away, while a ship-based military helicopter was locked on to 11 days earlier. The January 30 incident occurred in international waters about 100 kilometres north of the Senkakus.........



    A key question is who is authorising the Chinese build-up and actions that could lead to an exchange of fire?

    Japan's Asahi newspaper reported on February 4 that China's response to the Senkaku dispute was now under the direct command and co-ordination of a top-level task force of the ruling Communist Party of China, which China's new leader Xi Jinping heads as general secretary.

    It seems highly unlikely that the captains of the two frigates involved in the radar-targeting incidents would have given the orders on their own. In China's military organisation, each senior commander is flanked by a political officer to ensure that the interests of the party are acted upon.

    Indeed, the CPC's 18th Congress in November that elevated Mr Xi to party chief and China's President-designate sought to tighten party (which in China means civilian) control over the armed forces. Among other things, the Congress named Mr Xi as the chairman of China's Central Military Commission. His two predecessors waited for two years for that job.

    Since then, Mr Xi has visited units of all five major service branches, including the army, navy, air force, armed police and the body responsible for missiles and nuclear weapons. One theme he has emphasised is the need for the armed forces to be combat-ready.

    Another theme he repeatedly underscored was the military's absolute loyalty to the CPC and its leadership. This suggests that Mr Xi and his civilian colleagues may worry about the growing political clout of the armed forces and the propensity of some nationalist hardliners to take unauthorised actions that could spark a military crisis and sabotage a negotiated settlement.

    As China's defence spending has risen rapidly to become the world's second-largest (though still well behind the US), its armed forces have acquired a powerful array of weapons and equipment. These give the military a more direct interest in the conduct and enforcement of foreign and security policy, including China's sweeping claims to ownership of disputed maritime zones in the East and South China seas that the armed forces consider vital for the country's strategic interests.

    Some of China's most strident hawks are serving or retired military officers. While they do not claim to speak for the leadership, they are given licence to speak out on some issues at certain times.

    Air Force Colonel Dai Xu is prominent among those calling for military action to secure offshore claims. With China challenging Japan in the East China Sea, and US ally the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, he has argued that a short, decisive war, such as China's 1962 border clash with India, would return maritime territory stolen by Japan and the former colonial masters of south-east Asian countries, and deliver long-term peace.

    Colonel Dai, a researcher at Beijing University's China Centre for Strategic Studies, asserts that the US would not risk war with China over these territorial disputes. ''Since we have decided that the US is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,'' he wrote in a commentary last August in the Global Times, published by the CPC's mouthpiece, the People's Daily. ''This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia,'' he wrote. ''We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.''

    The military hawks appear to make up only a small proportion of China's officer corps. But their influence, magnified by modern communications and social media, may be far more extensive than their numbers suggest. Their influence may also be shaping views and actions in the military command.

    Just last month, another hawk, Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu, an analyst at China's National Defence University, said the US was building ''a mini-NATO'' to contain China, with the US and Japan at its core, and Australia within its orbit. He told a correspondent for Fairfax Media that his views did not represent China's policy but were consistent with what political and military leaders thought, if not what they said.

    He and other hawks have been buoyed by Mr Xi's rise to the top. One of Mr Xi's new political mottoes, the ''China Dream'', echoes the title of a book by the colonel, which has had sales restrictions removed since Mr Xi emerged as leader.

    The US and China's Asia-Pacific neighbours, including Australia, will be hoping Mr Xi sees that it is in China's interest to rein in the hawks, not pander to their extreme views and allow them to dictate policy.

    ******************************************************

    The growing economic and military clout of China is possibly given China confidence to 'challenge; the world for a predominant place in the sun.

    The sleight of hand employment of '100 Years of National Shame' has cleverly around a flurry of nationalistic fervour to avenge the 'wrongs' done to China and the citizenry has lapped it up with patriotic glee.

    However, Rise of China with the sense of avenge for the perceived wrongs to China has become a heady mix leading to the rise of ultra nationalism that could and is, in small doses, spurring irresponsibility and irresponsible actions.

    The clarion call of Xi Jumping asking the Chinese military to be 'combat ready' does create doubts that the future may hold clouds of gloom and agony to the Asia Pacific region in particular.

    That the Chinese military is hard on the heels to become independent of the political shackles that so far had kept them within the ambit of reasonability is another dangerous trend.

    If the political control of the Armed Forces of China is compromised, then it can seriously embarrass the country with irresponsible actions of grave consequences

    The rise of XI and China's military's independence of its political shackles should be watched with interest and concern..
     
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  3. G90

    G90 Regular Member

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    :cool2: What grave conseqence? China is far stronger then Germany in 1930s, Germany in 1930s and their weak allies only control 10% or so world industrial output, thats why they lose to these who get 90%.

    if it were a highly prepared United States in 1940s started the world war, that will be a far more comparable scenario, and then they could have won that one, or the world might not even dare to fight them in the first place.

    China now control 50% of the world industrial outputs, comparable to the US in 1930s, and have enough resources for a big fight, thats some serious and fatal differences between China and the sore losers in WW2, so even if China start a war it will be China's enemy, instead of China, to take the grave conseqence:cool2:
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2013
  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    An overview worth considering.

    The statement - China now control 50% of the world industrial outputs, comparable to the US in 1930s, is not understood.

    Would comparison of WWII scenario be valid today?

    One could then go back to the age when time began and compare, but then that would not be valid since times have changed and the comparison is as diverse as chalk and cheese.


    Page last updated on February 21,

    Economy - overview:

    Since the late 1970s China has moved from a closed, centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one that plays a major global role - in 2010 China became the world's largest exporter. Reforms began with the phasing out of collectivized agriculture, and expanded to include the gradual liberalization of prices, fiscal decentralization, increased autonomy for state enterprises, creation of a diversified banking system, development of stock markets, rapid growth of the private sector, and opening to foreign trade and investment. China has implemented reforms in a gradualist fashion. In recent years, China has renewed its support for state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to "economic security," explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions. After keeping its currency tightly linked to the US dollar for years, in July 2005 China revalued its currency by 2.1% against the US dollar and moved to an exchange rate system that references a basket of currencies. From mid 2005 to late 2008 cumulative appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar was more than 20%, but the exchange rate remained virtually pegged to the dollar from the onset of the global financial crisis until June 2010, when Beijing allowed resumption of a gradual appreciation. The restructuring of the economy and resulting efficiency gains have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2010 stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US, having surpassed Japan in 2001. The dollar values of China's agricultural and industrial output each exceed those of the US; China is second to the US in the value of services it produces. Still, per capita income is below the world average. The Chinese government faces numerous economic challenges, including: (a) reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic demand; (b) sustaining adequate job growth for tens of millions of migrants and new entrants to the work force; (c) reducing corruption and other economic crimes; and (d) containing environmental damage and social strife related to the economy's rapid transformation. Economic development has progressed further in coastal provinces than in the interior, and approximately 200 million rural laborers and their dependents have relocated to urban areas to find work. One consequence of population control policy is that China is now one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. Deterioration in the environment - notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table, especially in the north - is another long-term problem. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and economic development. The Chinese government is seeking to add energy production capacity from sources other than coal and oil, focusing on nuclear and alternative energy development. In 2009, the global economic downturn reduced foreign demand for Chinese exports for the first time in many years, but China rebounded quickly, outperforming all other major economies in 2010 with GDP growth around 10%. The economy appears set to remain on a strong growth trajectory in 2011, lending credibility to the stimulus policies the regime rolled out during the global financial crisis. The government vows, in the 12th Five-Year Plan adopted in March 2011, to continue reforming the economy and emphasizes the need to increase domestic consumption in order to make the economy less dependent on exports for GDP growth in the future. However, China has made only marginal progress toward these rebalancing goals. Two economic problems China currently faces are inflation - which, late in 2010, surpassed the government's target of 3% - and local government debt, which swelled as a result of stimulus policies, and is largely off-the-books and potentially low-quality.

    GDP (purchasing power parity):
    $11.3 trillion (2011 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 3

    $10.32 trillion (2010 est.)

    $9.356 trillion (2009 est.)

    note: data are in 2011 US dollars
    [see also: GDP country ranks ]

    GDP (official exchange rate):

    $6.989 trillion
    note: because China's exchange rate is determine by fiat, rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries (2011 est.)

    http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/china/china_economy.html
     
  5. satish007

    satish007 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Ray, you should know how Chinese hate Japs although their AV and some products are good.
    we are not challenging the whole world, we also want peace.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I will be frank; there are many including me, who applaud China's economic boom, scientific progress, production of great defence products and so on.

    But what worries all is the unnecessary aggressive attitude that seems to have come out of such a immense progress.

    China must progress even more, but it should not be aggressive and spook the world is all that one hopes.

    While there are many people in China who want a peaceful progress, the ultra nationalists who seem to getting a hold of China and that is surely a cause for worry.

    For instance, t_co in his post in the economic thread, was most concerned with the rise of Modi. The reason for being concerned is obvious. Modi is too strident compared to Manmohan Singh!
     
  7. desicanuk

    desicanuk Regular Member

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    Nothing new here.PRC leaders were nicy nicy until they got some muscle.It does not take an Einstein to figure out what PRC is up to!One only needs to look at Germany after the fall of the Weimar republic. Germany became arrogant and belligerent soon after Hitler took power.Rapid and feverish rearmament followed.Sabrerattling and bullying weaker neighboring countries.Claims of territories of neighbours.Encroachment then occupation of such territories.It goes on and on.It will get worse as PRC gets emboldened since we have too many Chamberlains among us .One notable mention is the Aussie left esp.Kevin Rudd - a great apologist for PRC.
     

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