Tracking Indian Economy till general elections 2019

[Bornubus]

Oh, yes, you are right.

This guy is busy releasing short bursts of sweet nothings to the press. Everyday, I see some news about this. Looking forward to a white paper from him.

Today, even the Defence Minister jumped in the fray: Demonetisation 'choked funds to terrorism': Defence minister

While the Ministry of Finance does not come under her jurisdiction, the Ministry of Defence does. So, she has a legitimate position to comment from.

We were told, DeMonetization was done to reduce terror funding.

Has it worked?

A look at the data indicates that there has been no significant reduction in terrorist attacks or casualties.

Spoiler: Data 2016 and 2017 (partial)

View attachment 21477
Source: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/data_sheets/annual_casualties.htm

Coming to casualties, if we look at the past 5 years (excluding 2017, because it is not over yet), the best year was 2012.
View attachment 21478

So, we come back to the original claim:

DeMonetization was done to reduce terror funding. Fine.
What was ReMonetization done for? To increase terror funding?

Now, if demonetization is linked to terrorism, then the casualty count should also include those killed standing in front of queues. I don't think Jaitley would be particularly enthusiastic about this idea though. He is busy attacking Manmohan Singh instead.

Personally, I am glad we had Manmohan SIngh at the top in 2008 (year the recession manifested), and not this lousy leadership we have today.

Bhai data under spoiler ?

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[pmaitra]

Bhai data under spoiler ?

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So that it does not take up too much space. Also, it slows down the page loading. I used to post large pictures, but lately, I am leaning towards posting thumbnails and spoilers. If someone is interested, he can expand it.

 

[pmaitra]

Oil turns from Modi's blessing to burden threatening economy

While low prices helped shrink deficits as Modi cut subsidies after taking the reins of Asia’s third-largest economy in 2014, a 33 percent jump in global benchmark crude since June has lifted oil close to $65 a barrel. If it hits and stays at that level in the year through March, inflation could rise by 30 basis points and a key measure of growth may weaken by 15 basis points, the central bank estimates.

__________

The coming two quarters will be an opportunity for Modi and Jaitley to prove the naysayers wrong.

So far, low oil prices made the circumstances much easier. A lot of improvement was expected, but has not happened. Can they do a better job than Manmohan Singh did under even worse circumstances?

Non-fossil fuel based energy could be the saviour.

 

[hit&run]

Are you suggesting that people at world Bank are fools and can't do their research properly.

In Paying taxes: We were ranking 172 in 2017 and 119 in 2018.

After seeing tax data in 2018 you might say that govt. have fudged the data. Why should I believe in you.

I wonder these detractors even know the difference. Not only the Tax Payers have increased but the compliance who were already in the net.

 

[hit&run]

Juveline confirmation bias at display.

Data on causalities is the only measures of explaining terror activities and terror incidents. Lol.....

 

[hit&run]

Without taking any sides in the argument, I would like to add that casualties as indicators of effectiveness of reduction in terror funding is probably a flawed statistic:

• Smaller number of incidents can have large casualties, aka "fat tail" distributions
• Counter-intuitively, the number of incidents prevented pre- and post- could be a better indicator. But such stats would be classified
• Amount of "new" weapons or ammo confiscated pre- and post- could be another useful stat
• Number of arrests or tips-off could be another one

These kids have been using these simplistic tools for ages. This PIDI argument on twitter and NDTV has been a hit since ABV government. Unfortunately this kind of bias has been making home to many minds especially those who dare to venture into defence forums read by actual watchers and analysts.

Every time a hardliner government takes charge the casualties shoot up for the very basic fact that they tend to clean the house full of scorpions who complicit eco system had nourished.

 

[Flame Thrower]

I wonder these detractors even know the difference. Not only the Tax Payers have increased but the compliance who were already in the net.

All hail the most intelligent @hit&run ....he happens to know more than World Bank which actually did the survey and came to the conclusion.

 

[hit&run]

All hail the most intelligent @hit&run ....he happens to know more than World Bank which actually did the survey and came to the conclusion.

I hope you have understood my post. I am agreeing with your assertion. Please read again and correct your post.

BTW I can even answer your personal attack by proving my credentials and tested intelligence and cognitive score by a credible method but don't want to start the discussion which has started on misunderstanding :biggrin2: .

 

[Flame Thrower]

I hope you have understood my post. I am agreeing with your assertion. Please read again and correct your post.

BTW I can even answer your personal attack by proving my credentials and tested intelligence and cognitive score by a credible method but don't want to start the discussion which has started on misunderstanding :biggrin2: .

Sorry, I had kind of hot discussion with my friends over Demo and GST.

I got into the forum to refresh myself and found your post.

My mistake.

I usually quote someone if I disagree with the post.

Just had a bad start.

Bye the way I am dying for 2017Q2 GDP growth%.

 

[Akshay_Fenix]

Sorry, I had
kind of hot discussion with my friends over Demo and GST.

I got into the forum to refresh myself and found your post.

My mistake.

I usually quote someone if I disagree with the post.

Just had a bad start.

Bye the way I am dying for 2017Q2 GDP growth%.

those figures wont be good either..... but t will be higher than the one before.

 

[sorcerer]

India to overtake Japan as third largest economy by 2028: BofAML

India may emerge as the third largest economy overtakingJapan over the next ten years on the back of falling dependency, financial maturity and higher income and affordability, says a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch
.

“In 2028, we estimate it will overtake Japan in nominal GDP to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy ” said Indranil Sengupta and Aastha Gudwani, India economists at Bank of America Merril Lynch.

The report says that India is likely to cross Germany and Japan in nominal GDP in USD by 2028, assuming the economy grows at 10% in US dollar terms over the next 10 years, ahead of Japan's 1.6%. India is also well on track to become as the world's fifth largest economy by 2019.

Three strong growth drivers are expected to help India grow fast. First, falling dependency ratios is expected to raise saving and investment rates. Rising saving and investment rates, driven by falling dependency ratios, should fund an estimated 7% real growth. The report assumes build in 6% inflation and 3% depreciation to arrive at 10% nominal growth in US dollar terms.

Financial maturity, due to financial liberalization and inclusion, should continue to lower lending rates structurally. The credit to GDP ratio, a proxy for financial maturity, will likely climb to 83% of GDP from 44% in 2001-17 a driven by financial inclusion and financial market development among others. This, in turn, is expected to pull down interest rates.

Finally, increasing incomes and affordability will likely underpin the emergence of mass markets, supporting an expected 7% real GDP growth. The economists forecast emergence of mass markets powered by rising incomes, on the demand side, as well as economies of scale, on the supply side. A virtuous cycle is seeing higher affordability, as incomes rise, which allows manufacturers to hold the price line on economies of scale; this, in turn, reinforces affordability, the report said.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61630613.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[sorcerer]

Business confidence improves in Q4: Dun & Bradstreet


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61630499.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[sorcerer]

Confident to go past direct tax collection target of Rs 9.80 lakh crore: CBDT

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) today said it was not only confident that the Income Tax (IT) department would achieve the direct tax collection target for the current financial year, but that it would go past it.

"The collections (under the income tax, personal tax and other direct tax categories) have been buoyant and very good. I am very happy to say that the net growth of collections is about 15.2 per cent at the moment and I would say that the individual assessees under the advance tax category have responded very well.

"The advance tax of the individual assessees rose by 30 per cent, which is quite heartening for the department," CBDT Chairman Sushil Chandra said.

He added that the department had witnessed an overall increase of 20 per cent in returns filed post demonetisation and hence, the "tax will be much more".

"We have achieved 15.2 per cent and will meet the target. We are confident of going past the target of Rs 9.80 lakh crore," Chandra told reporters on the sidelines of an event here.

The CBDT, the policy-making body of the I-T department, had on November 7 said that direct tax collections had clocked 44.8 per cent of the total budget estimate of Rs 9.8 lakh crore for 2017-18.

Replying to a question on the presence of black money in the electoral process, the CBDT boss said the department took action whenever it received any information in this regard.

"As far as electoral reforms are concerned, the I-T law has been changed. Not more than Rs 2,000 can be given in cash to a political party. Also, the parties have to file their returns within the time-limit," he said.



https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...9-80-lakh-crore-cbdt/articleshow/61647156.cms

 

[sorcerer]

Indian Arbitration Council: Indian Arbitration Council takes shape, draft act ready
NEW DELHI: The Narendra Modi government will establish an Indian Arbitration Council via an Act, lending muscle to efforts to establish India as a global hub for institutional arbitration. Indian Arbitration Council is conceived as a flagship institution to conduct international and domestic arbitration.

The Indian Arbitration Council will be declared as an institution of “national importance.” ET has accessed the draft Act-The Indian Arbitration Council Act, 2017 - prepared by the government to set up a “robust” institution. The Act aims at establishment and incorporation of the Indian Arbitration Council for the purpose of creating an “independent and autonomous regime for institutionalized arbitration.”

The Council will be headquartered in New Delhi with branches in other places in the country. The acquisition and transfer of undertakings of The International Centre for Alternative Dispute Resolution will be done to facilitate establishment of the Council.

T

he International Centre for Alternative Disputes Resolution was set up in 1995 with the objective of promoting alternative dispute resolution mechanism and providing facilities for the same. The Centre received land and substantial funding by way of grants and other benefits from the Central government for constructing infrastructure and making other facilities.

The government has observed that the Centre has not been able to actively engage and embrace developments in the arbitration ecosystem and to create a reputation par excellence keeping pace with dynamic nature of arbitration for more than two decades.

A study conducted by the high powered committee appointed by the government indicated that the Centre failed to address the growing needs of the institutional arbitration and also to bear optimum caseload and to become better choice to the parties for arbitration.

The Act says that it has become “expedient” to take over the undertakings of the International Centre “without interfering” with its activities and “without adversely affecting its character as a society but to utilise its existing infrastructure and other facilities.” It adds that “dispute resolution has a huge impact on the Indian economy and global perception on doing business in our country and it has become necessary to inspire confidence and credibility among the litigants of commercial disputes.”

Rapidly changing economic activity demands expeditious settlement of disputes and creation and establishment of institutional arbitration. The chairperson of the body will either be a retired Supreme Court or High Court Judge or an eminent person with special knowledge and experience in the conduct or administration of arbitration. The chairperson will be appointed by the central government in consultation with the chief justice of India.

Other members will include “two eminent persons” having substantial knowledge and experience in institutional arbitration, both domestic and international, nominated by the central government in consultation with the chairperson. The two will be part-time members.

Also, a representative of a recognised body of commerce and industry, chosen on rotational basis by the ministry of commerce and industry will be a part of the council as a part-time member. The union law secretary or his representative - not below the rank of joint secretary - will be a member, ex-officio. One financial adviser nominated by the ministry of finance will also be a member of the council.

According to the Act, the objects of the council will be to “collaborate with other national and international institutions and organisations for ensuring credibility of the council as a specialised institution in arbitration and conciliation”.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...hape-draft-act-ready/articleshow/61634285.cms.

 

[aditya10r]

India to overtake Japan as third largest economy by 2028: BofAML

India may emerge as the third largest economy overtakingJapan over the next ten years on the back of falling dependency, financial maturity and higher income and affordability, says a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch
.

“In 2028, we estimate it will overtake Japan in nominal GDP to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy ” said Indranil Sengupta and Aastha Gudwani, India economists at Bank of America Merril Lynch.

The report says that India is likely to cross Germany and Japan in nominal GDP in USD by 2028, assuming the economy grows at 10% in US dollar terms over the next 10 years, ahead of Japan's 1.6%. India is also well on track to become as the world's fifth largest economy by 2019.

Three strong growth drivers are expected to help India grow fast. First, falling dependency ratios is expected to raise saving and investment rates. Rising saving and investment rates, driven by falling dependency ratios, should fund an estimated 7% real growth. The report assumes build in 6% inflation and 3% depreciation to arrive at 10% nominal growth in US dollar terms.

Financial maturity, due to financial liberalization and inclusion, should continue to lower lending rates structurally. The credit to GDP ratio, a proxy for financial maturity, will likely climb to 83% of GDP from 44% in 2001-17 a driven by financial inclusion and financial market development among others. This, in turn, is expected to pull down interest rates.

Finally, increasing incomes and affordability will likely underpin the emergence of mass markets, supporting an expected 7% real GDP growth. The economists forecast emergence of mass markets powered by rising incomes, on the demand side, as well as economies of scale, on the supply side. A virtuous cycle is seeing higher affordability, as incomes rise, which allows manufacturers to hold the price line on economies of scale; this, in turn, reinforces affordability, the report said.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61630613.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The calculation is quite wrong,given modi is gonna stay till 2024-he would have removed 4000 useless laws,passed more aggressive economic reforms and start ups and manufacturing pays off, then our GDP growth rate would be 8% easy, then to increase internal consumption and increase wages the rupee will appreciate to a point of 52-55.

__________________________________________

India would easily be 8 trillion economy.

 

[Indian Sniper.001]

The Benami Act is more dangerous for the corrupt and tax evaders than demonitization. Can't wait to hear the screams now.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In its drive against the benami property holders and shell companies, the Income Tax Department is checking the "tax profiles" of all property registrations above Rs 30 lakh. The inquiry is being done under the provisions of the Anti-Benami Act, the CBDT chief said on Tuesday. Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Sushil Chandra confirmed the department was also probing the shell companies - along with their directors - debarred by the government.

The top taxman said this while interacting with reporters after inaugurating the Income Tax Department pavilion at the India International Trade Fair (IITF), which began at Pragati Maidan here on Tuesday.

Sources in the I-T department said so far the taxman has attached around 621 properties , including some bank accounts. The total amount involved in these cases that is being probed under the Benami Transactions Act is about Rs 1,800 crore. "We will destroy all instruments that are used to convert black money into white. This also includes shell companies. Also, the department is checking the income tax profiles of all properties which have a registry value of over Rs 30 lakh. We get this information under the law. If these profiles are found suspicious or incorrect, action will be taken (under the Benami Act)," Chandra said.

Chandra added the issue was "very serious" and that the tax officials had done a lot of work on this front. "We have opened 24 units (of the I-T to implement the anti-benami Act) all over the country. We are getting information from different sources," he said. "Our efforts in this direction are being intensified further," he said.

Chandra said that the taxman is also matching the data "of shell companies which have been debarred recently". If anyone of these companies are found have benami property or any other financial transaction that the I-T department has received and that is not matching, action will be taken, he said. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the withdrawal of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in November 2016, the two highest value banknotes of the time, the I-T department had warned people against depositing their unaccounted banknotes in accounts maintained by someone else.

Such an act, it had said, would attract criminal charges under the Benami Property Transactions Act, 1988, applicable on both movable and immovable properties. The I-T department is the nodal department to enforce the Benami Act in the country. The department started initiating actions under the new Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act, 2016, from November 1 last year. The law provides for a maximum punishment of seven years in jail and a fine.

http://www.businesstoday.in/current...ets-income-tax-property-tax/story/264014.html

 

[Bullet]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gst/2017/11/17/moodys-upgrades-indias-credit-rating-in-boost-for-modi

 

[Akshay_Fenix]

OMG the sangh have infiltrated Moody as well. Long live the sangh. Long live Modi.

Moody's First India Upgrade in 14 Years Bets on Modi's Reforms

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-rating-upgraded-by-moody-s-in-boost-for-modi


The last upgrade was done during NDA 1 sarkar under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Then came the dark decade which some say was great. .

 

[Flame Thrower]

Gurus I have a question

https://www.ndtv.com/business/moody...for-first-time-in-13-years-markets-up-1776560

In this Article Bloomberg has shown that India in 2018 might have around 5% of budget deficit.

But recently there is an article where GOI and RBI is trying to reduce tr fisical deficit to 3.2% of GDP. Current deficit is 3.7%

http://googleweblight.com/i?u=http:...et/article9835492.ece&grqid=MMzoYiEZ&hl=en-IN

Can anyone please explain what I am missing

 

[hit&run]

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