Threatened by India's military and Anti-Americanism : Pakistan's Rush for more bombs

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by Singh, Feb 1, 2012.

  1. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Pakistan’s Rush For More Bombs — Why?


    The rush for more bombs has much to do with its changi-ng relati-onship with US and Indian milita-ry modern-isatio-n.



    On January 24, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon vented his frustration at Pakistan’s determined opposition to a treaty that would limit fissile material production for use in nuclear weapons. For three years, Pakistan has single-handedly — and successfully — blocked the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva from discussing an effort that would reduce nuclear weapons globally. Consequently, within diplomatic circles, Pakistan has acquired the reputation of an outlier that opposes all efforts towards this end.

    The opposition comes in the backdrop of news that Pakistan has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. This claim — which still reverberates around the world — was first published in a Bulletin of Atomic Scientists report entitled “Pakistan’s nuclear forces — 2011”. The authors, Hans M Kristensen and Robert S Norris, say although the numbers of Pakistani warheads and delivery vehicles is a closely-held secret, yet “we estimate that Pakistan has a nuclear weapons stockpile of 90-110 nuclear warheads, an increase from the estimated 70-90 warheads in 2009”. They reckon that if the expansion continues, Pakistan’s stockpile could reach 150-200 in a few years. By this count, Pakistan’s arsenal may have already exceeded India’s, and will soon rival Britain’s.

    The Bulletin report has not been denied by Pakistan. Its stockpile of highly enriched uranium is increased daily by thousands of centrifuges whirring away at the Kahuta Laboratory (and possibly elsewhere). This is augmented by plutonium producing reactors at Khushab; two are already at work and a third is undergoing trials. Google Earth photos show that a fourth one is under construction. The plutonium has no commercial purpose. Instead, the goal is to produce lighter but deadlier bombs to be fitted on to missile tips.

    Pakistan’s position is that it needs to produce still more bombs — and hence more bomb materials — because of India. It cites the US-India nuclear deal, along with older issues related to verification problems and existing stocks. Indeed, that infamous deal is Pakistan’s strongest argument and a correct criticism: the US has committed itself to nuclear cooperation with a state that is not a signatory to the NPT and one that made nuclear weapons surreptitiously. Now that the sanctions once imposed are long gone, India can import advanced nuclear reactor technology as well as natural uranium ore from diverse sources — Australia included. Although imported ore cannot be used for bomb-making, India could in principle divert more of its scarce domestic ore towards military reactors. Pakistan also says that “Cold Start” — an operation conceived by the Indian military in response to more Mumbai-type attacks — requires it to prepare tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use.

    But the US-India nuclear deal may actually be a fig leaf. Pakistan’s rush for more bombs has as much to do with its changing relationship with the United States as with Indian military modernisation. This racing reflects a paradigm shift within Pakistan’s military establishment, where feelings against the US have steadily hardened over many years. Post-bin Laden, the change is starkly visible.

    In the military’s mind, the Americans are now a threat, equal to or larger than India. They are also considered more of an adversary than even the TTP jihadists who have killed thousands of Pakistani troops and civilians. While the Salala incident was allowed to inflame public opinion, the gory video-taped executions of Pakistani soldiers by the TTP were played down. A further indication is that the LeT/JuD is back in favor (with a mammoth anti-US and anti-India rally scheduled in Karachi next month). Pakistani animosity rises as it sees America tightly embracing India, and standing in the way of a Pakistan-friendly government in Kabul. Once again “strategic defiance” is gaining ground, albeit not through the regional compact suggested by General Mirza Aslam Beg in the early 1990s.

    This attitudinal shift has created two strong non-India reasons that favour ramping up bomb production.

    First, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are seen to be threatened by America. This perception has been reinforced by the large amount of attention given to the issue in the US mainstream press, and by war-gaming exercises in US military institutes. Thus, redundancy is considered desirable — an American attempt to seize or destroy all warheads would have smaller chances of success if Pakistan had more.

    But such an attack is improbable. It is difficult to imagine any circumstances — except possibly the most extreme — in which the US would risk going to war against another nuclear state. Even if Pakistan had just a handful of weapons, no outside power could accurately know the coordinates of the mobile units on which they are located. It is said that an extensive network of underground tunnels exists within which they can be freely moved. Additionally, overground ones are moved from place to place periodically in unmarked trucks. Mobile dummies and decoys can hugely compound difficulties. Moreover, even if a nuclear location was exactly known, it would surely be heavily guarded. This implies many casualties when intruding troops are engaged, thus making a secret bin-Laden type operation impossible.

    The second – and perhaps more important — reason for the accelerated nuclear development is left unstated: nukes act as insurance against things going too far wrong. Like North Korea, Pakistan knows that, no matter what, international financial donors will feel compelled to keep pumping in funds. Else a collapsing system may be unable to prevent some of its hundred-plus Hiroshima-sized nukes from disappearing into the darkness.

    This insurance could become increasingly important as Pakistan moves deeper into political isolation and economic difficulties mount. Even today, load-shedding and fuel shortages routinely shut down industries and transport for long stretches, imports far exceed exports, inflation is at the double-digit level, foreign direct investment is negligible because of concerns over physical security, tax collection remains minimal, and corruption remains unchecked. An African country like Somalia or Congo would have sunk under this weight long ago.

    To conclude: throwing a spanner in the works at the CD (Geneva) may well be popular as an act of defiance. Indeed, many in Pakistan — like Hamid Gul and Imran Khan — derive delicious satisfaction from spiting the world in such ways. But this is not wise for a state that perpetually hovers at the edge of bankruptcy, and which derives most of its worker remittances and export earnings from the very countries it delights in mocking.

    Pakistan’s rush for more bombs — why? – The Express Tribune
     
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  3. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Who will finance these bombs since Pakistan is so anti-American?? Last few paragraphs sound like suicidal blackmail plan.
    why dosen't the NSG throw out the Pakistan-China nuclear deal to prevent this??
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2012
  4. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    defence (difai) budget sponsored by arabs, chinese and west ?
     
  5. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    I support this, make more bombs, send to every nook and corner of the world, threaten the world with it, why we should only get the threats. Let the world gets the taste of the medicine
     
  6. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    NSG also did not oppose the Pak-China nuclear deal seems like they want this??
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    They need to prove they have long range missile capability, not the upgraded 1950's scuds they have now.
     
  8. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    LF, they can always send the people with nuclear material to make detonation, with the so called power pussy footing in tackling the mess, in fact trying to keep directed the mess only towards us STILL. There is only way out for the jihadis, threaten the whole world.
     
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    you are right since there are Kafirs everywhere. AQ Khan's dream was to have nuclear weapons in every islamic country.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2012
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    ‘Pak-China civil nuclear deal to be okayed by NSG’ – The Express Tribune

    ‘Pak-China civil nuclear deal to be okayed by NSG’

    The US said on Tuesday it had sought clarification from China on the sale of two civilian nuclear reactors to Pakistan, saying the deal must be approved by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
    “We’ve asked China to clarify the details of its sale of additional nuclear reactors to Pakistan,” State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters.
    On Monday, The Washington Post reported that the US had decided to object to the deal.
    “This appears to extend beyond cooperation that was grandfathered when China was approved for membership in the NSG,” Crowley added.
    “We believe that such cooperation would require specific exemption approved by consensus of the NSG, as was done for India.”
    The 45-member NSG, which controls the export and sale of nuclear technology worldwide, has granted a waiver for India, a nuclear weapons state that has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
    The group controls trade in “dual-use” nuclear fuel, materials and technology to ensure they are applied only to civilian nuclear energy programs and not diverted into clandestine nuclear weapons work.
    The Financial Times reported in April that Chinese companies will build at least two new 650-megawatt reactors at Chashma in Punjab province.
    It quoted an expert saying China likely felt emboldened to go ahead with the deal after the US signed a civilian nuclear agreement with India in 2008.
    The Washington Post reported that China has suggested that the sale is grandfathered from before it joined the NSG in 2004, because it was completing work on two earlier reactors for Pakistan at the time
     
  11. Bhadra

    Bhadra Defence Professionals Defence Professionals Senior Member

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    The world would survive by donations to Pakistan but what about India? Indians have donated sufficient land, water and resources to Pakis every time but of no avail !!

    The Islamic bomb has more potency to be used against what Zaid says Christian and Zionist West and Hindu India. They get money and support from Islamic world to Scare Zionists and from China and America to scare Hindu India.
     
  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    India should announce they are increasing their fissile material stockpile already have enough for 700-2000 warheads according to experts.
     
  13. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    You are assuming that the status quo will remain aka: generals will concentrate on India and keep lower ranks in check for the money, and the lower rank will keep quite.

    Here the flaw comes, the ranks are getting more radicalized by each passing day, and their ambitions are not only India, but the whole world that includes China. To me the way these guys gives money to pakis looks like Jaziya getting paid to keep them safe. You know that this can not continue.
     
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  14. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    Why announce it, it is already increasing as we talk :D
     
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  15. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    So the world can feel a lot better.
     
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  16. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    All three

    Arabs= Money, Brotherhood and Islamic bomb.

    China= Technical know how

    West = Functional muteness and inaction even after catching AQ Khan.
     
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  17. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    LF, you know that we are never going to announce it don't you :D.

    This is the way we work
     
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  18. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The west has no influence like the other 2 except under the table financing or payoffs.
     
  19. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    If west can roll back Taiwan's nuclear weapon program even given their animosity with China what was so special with Pakistan who was sending trunks full of equipments and blue prints to Syria, Iran and North Korea.
     
  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    These are countries we know about, there are probably a dozen other countries including Libya and Turkey.
    The bomb will also be up for bids to the highest Islamic bidder.
     
  21. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    There was clear understanding if not between west and Pakistan directly but amongst western world and most likely between them and Arabs to let the monster be the scariest monster he wants to be against Russia's India.

    Karma is a bitch, let these fanatic wolves have more bombs, let them make many nuclear pockets in Islamic world or even let them blasting 'em of in China and first world countries now. India has already learnt how to coexist with these monsters with clear nuclear doctrine and should less worry about what west has to cry foul against Pakistan.

    West/NATO has contingencies in place to take down every possible nuclear site of Pakistan with at least three nuclear bombs. Let Pakistan be a target of possible nuclear attack for sure, actually 'is' for sure now, not only of India but USA/NATO et al.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2012
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