There is more to it than meets the eye

Adux

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X-Posting from J&K thread.
There is more to it than meets the eye
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India would find itself severely compromised if called upon to handle a border war with China and put down a staged Egyptian style uprising in Kashmir simultaneously, says Vivek Gumaste

Drawing an exaggerated, distorted and incongruous parallel between Egypt and Kashmir with the diabolical intent of craftily exploiting the burgeoning global goodwill for democratic uprisings, People's Democratic Party president Mehbooba Mufti declared recently that her party would launch a protest campaign for 'Azaadi' along the lines of the Egypt mass demonstration.To dismiss this gesture, as just another routine up tick in the constantly oscillating vagaries of Kashmiri politics would be a gargantuan mistake: for there is more to it than meets the eye.

First, the fact that Kashmir boasts a democratic government demolishes the validity of such a move. And second, even the modicum of propriety that this call entails at the outset withers away when one meticulously dissects Mehbooba Mufti's pronouncement to unearth the ulterior motive underlying this ostensible cry for self-determination.

In a power point presentation that embellished this seditious exhortation, the PDP tauntingly exhibited a refigured map of Kashmir that endorsed China's suzerainty over Aksai Chin and the Karakoram region of Kashmir in direct contravention of India's claim.Then in an attempt to give a secular and modernistic cloak to what is basically a fundamentalist religious movement, the PDP chief invoked the historical Silk Route that was once the hub of commercial activity in the region to demand that Srinagar be linked to the Chinese-built Karkoram highway via Yarkand in China to enhance economic progress.Neither was the map an accidental oversight and nor was the demand an innocent entreaty. Both underlined a sinister agenda: a ploy to curry favour with China and draw that nation directly into an internal dispute so as to pit India against a stronger adversary as opposed to a crumbling, ineffectual Pakistan.Or from another perspective: Could this antic be the initial salvo of a larger game plan being carried out at the behest of China with the PDP acting as the proverbial pawn?

Fuelling this suspicion is China's aggressive posturing on Kashmir in recent times, which raises legitimate concerns of China exploiting India's quandary in Kashmir to stamp its geo-political dominance in the region and further its economic interests; a win-win situation from the Chinese standpoint that kills two birds with one stone.Acutely conscious of India's growing economic clout that poses a significant challenge to its vision of global domination and extremely wary of India's increasing proximity to Washington, China sees in the Kashmir impasse an opportunity to 'put India in its place'; an action that would send an unequivocal message to both Washington and its aficionados in China's neighbourhood that China will not brook any interference in what it considers to be its geo-political sphere of influence.And to achieve this end, China considers war to be an acceptable option to counter emerging US alliances in the region as a recent article in the Qiushi Journal, the official publication of the ruling Communist Party of China indicates: "We must send a clear signal to our neighbouring countries that we don't fear war, and we are prepared at any time to go to war to safeguard our national interests."

The PDP's pronouncement assumes an ominous significance when viewed against the backdrop of a strategic commentary that appeared on a semi-official Chinese website in 2009 (International Institute for Strategic Studies) wherein a case was made for the balkanisation of India by stoking simmering sub national aspirations that included Kashmir: "China in its own interest and the progress of Asia, should join forces with different nationalities like the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris and support the latter in establishing independent nation-States of their own, out of India."What is especially concerning is that while India has long been aware of clandestine Chinese support to Maoists and separatist elements in the North East, this incident is the first sign of a possible nexus, purely verbal though it maybe, between anti-national or quasi separatist elements in Kashmir and China.The PDP despite being a registered political party often espouses policies that smack of separatist tendencies like advocating the free use of Pakistani currency.

Additionally China has another axe to grind in Kashmir: a pressing economic interest as delineated by the South Asia policy wonk Selig Harrison (China's Discreet Hold on Pakistan's Northern Borderlands. International Herald Tribune, August 26, 2010): "China wants a grip on the region to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. It takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Gulf. When high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit and Baltistan are completed, China will be able to transport cargo from Eastern China to the new Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours."India is the fly in the ointment in this Chinese grand design for these crucial links traverse through disputed territory that India claims as its own, including the 5,180 square kilometers of land illegally ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963 to build the Karkoram highway. With an independent, malleable Kashmir, China would resolve this problem once and for all.

China subscribes to a characteristic modus operandi that involves a calibrated escalation of hostilities, which culminate in a violent military coup de grace as demonstrated by the debacle of 1962.The last two years have witnessed a mounting Chinese diplomatic offensive like the issuing of stapled visas to Kashmiris and the current phase may represent intensification of this strategy by making common cause with disgruntled elements within India (Kashmiris) -- all in preparation for an all out war that may follow. India should take heed.India would find itself severely compromised if called upon to handle a border war with China and put down a staged Egyptian style uprising in Kashmir simultaneously.India must take all measures to ensure that such a predicament does not come to pass by promptly nipping in the bud the subversive activities of China and its minions in Kashmir.

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-sh...low-an-egypt-uprising-in-kashmir/20110303.htm
 

Adux

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Chinese threat looms large
March 04, 2011 1:05:05 AM

Ashok K Mehta

AK Antony should issue an operational directive for the defence forces to prepare and equip for a two-and-a-half front war.

Recently one of the television channels reported that Defence Minister AK Antony had asked the armed forces to be prepared for a two-front war. Lately he has cautioned on China's Defence Budget, PLA modernisation and burgeoning infrastructure in Tibet, but at the same time he has noted that all this is not a worry. This kind of ambiguous talk on China has become the style and substance of this Government when Chinese assertiveness in respect of India is getting conspicuously sharp.

Of the many stories about Chinese arrogance, two are pointed. The ruling CPC's official magazine has warned countries on China's periphery, including India, that it is prepared to go to war to safeguard national interest. The more entertaining story is of a Chinese seminarist who, while in Washington, DC, said that "India was an indisciplined country where plague and leprosy still exist. How a big and dirty country like that could rise so quickly has amazed us." Taken together, they reflect the astonishing decline in India-China relations when our diplomats who were posted in that country continue to paint a rosy picture.

The operational directive to the services has not come a day too soon and was well timed to coincide with Monday's Defence Budget which has made no additional provisions for operational enhancement on the China front. In December 2009, the previous Army Chief, Gen Deepak Kapoor, at a seminar had said that the Army has to be ready to fight on two fronts — Pakistan and China. This created ripples in Pakistan followed by China, both all-weather allies whose strategic collusion is historic. Officers joining the Army were told that while Pakistan is the immediate threat, China is the long term challenge. This threat perception has survived for six decades. One scenario envisioning a joint or simultaneous offensive called 'Operation Brass Board' was to have been war-gamed in the late-1980s but its author, Gen K Sundarji, left office before it could be tried out.

During the 1965 India-Pakistan war, the Chinese were expected to keep Indian forces engaged to prevent switching of assets from east to west. A secret cable A-37, sent on October 13, 1966 by US Consul-General William K Hitchcock to the US State Department reported that he had had a conversation with Lt Gen Sam Manekshaw, GoC-in-C Eastern Command, on a flight from New Delhi to Calcutta. He noted that Gen Manekshaw was convinced that the Chinese would not move but the Army Chief, Gen JN Chaudhuri, was not sure. Gen Manekshaw wanted the war to go on for two to three months more (so that forces could be switched). But regrettably India allowed China, through a few "menacing sounds", to pin down more than 3,00,000 troops.

In the 1971 war, Gen Manekshaw was the Army Chief. India had signed a Treaty of Peace and Friendship with the USSR and operations were launched only when the northern passes were closed. Yet there were apprehensions the Chinese would intervene once hostilities broke out to prevent troop withdrawal from the border. The same Gen Manekshaw who was keen to move troops in 1965 was excessively cautious in 1971 but allowed three Brigades to be withdrawn from the Chinese front. In both wars with Pakistan, China was a constraining factor.

If India-China relations are at the lowest today, China-Pakistan relations have climbed to new heights and there will be more than menacing sounds in the event of conflict. The speed of Chinese defence modernisation is in sharp contrast to India's lethargic response. The PLA's first aircraft carrier, Shi Lang, will take to sea four years ahead of schedule at the end of the year and five more will follow in a decade. China's submarine fleet will reach 100 vessels in the next three to five years and its stealth fighter has been tested. A new anti-ship missile is also reported operational. Technology and fire power at the disposal of the PLA have grown fast and thanks to the Chinese economic miracle, the Defence Budget has been boosted five-fold in the last decade, touching nearly $90 billion though the actual figure could be as high as $150 billion. China has sent a general warning to keep off South China Sea, Taiwan and Tibet.

China has settled land borders with all 14 countries except India. The road and rail infrastructure in Tibet has developed phenomenally with the railway to be extended to Shigatse from Lhasa by 2014 and thence venturing into the Chumbi valley. One third of China's nuclear and missile arsenal is deployed in Tibet and India is the only country not covered by Beijing's nuclear 'No First Use' policy. China has refused to engage India in nuclear conversations as it does not recognise India's nuclear weapon power status.

The PLA's capacity for a military build-up against India has increased five-fold in the last 20 years. Chinese think-tanks have warned India "not to forget 1962" and talked about the difficulty in the bilateral relationship which our diplomats describe as "complex".

India is no walkover, the PLA knows. That still does not bridge the military capability and infrastructure gap with China. India has been so pre-occupied with Pakistan that Mr Antony put a figure on the decline in modernisation to lagging behind by 15 years. In the late-1980s the Defence Perspective Plan 2000 had recommended narrowing the capacity gap with China, especially on infrastructure. What we do now will be too little, too late.

The Indian Army's study on 'Transformation', which should have been a tri-service defence capability review, has done some useful work. Among other things, it has recommended the formation of a strike command, including an offensive corps for Tibet. Such a capability ought to have been created a decade ago, instead of mollycoddling the Chinese.

The Army Chief, Gen VK Singh, said recently that we are prepared for all contingencies. The 'Transformation' idea, which is being examined by an Experts' Group, aims to shift from adversary-specific to capability-based forces, dovetailed into the concept of theatrisation with adequate strike forces. But pause to ponder. India has specific adversaries.

Unless done, Mr Antony must issue an operational directive to the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee and individual Service Chiefs to prepare and equip for a two-and-a-half front war which will include a full-blown insurgency. It's time to prepare and stop hedging the China threat.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/321316/Chinese-threat-looms-large.html
 

Adux

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If what is said in the first article is anywhere near a possibility, then Beijing must made into a glass bowl. We may be go down, but we are taking them with us.
 

Rage

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The article has a point. There is only one way to deal with the Chinese. By preparing for war, we will actually have averted it.
 

Adux

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The best form of defense, is and always will be offense. There are times and situations I feel the chinese will just grab some amount of land, and threaten nuclear war, and we will back down. But, it didnt happen in 1999 Kargil! will it happen today?
 

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A new cold war will start if not already. One of the adversary won it and has sixty years of experience in it. New alliances will come into place. One of them will be in asia. The new NATO will be in asia. China has no friends in asia worth mentioning. It is trying to destroy the very countries it made money of including the US. Don't know what their thinking is. I am sure india will be part of such an alliance in the future which should neutralize the chinese nuke threat against smaller nuclear as well as non nuclear powers.
On an immediate basis, may be we can start with trade sanctions with china in response to their diplomatic offensives. We are not going to be hurt by it as the balance of trade is heavily in their favor.
 

Adux

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Yusuf,

In the long run, China's growth will stagnate, but it would have created a great economy for itself, domestic market would be its main source, not US. China will replace US as the biggest market for Chinese goods. We have failed heavily in diplomatic front, Tibet is a gone issue now. But we can bring stapled visas for Tibetians for sure. US is very very important to us, it is a two way street, we have to make some concessions for them. We will need to bring our strategic forces to a level, where a complete destruction of Chinese and Pakistani state is possible, nothing short of that. if it is, then we are as good as gone.
 
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Yusuf

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Yusuf,

In the long run, China's growth will stagnate, but it would have created a great economy for itself, domestic market would be its main source, not US. China will replace US as the biggest market for Chinese goods. We have failed heavily in diplomatic front, Tibet is a gone issue now. But we can bring stapled visas for Tibetians for sure. US is very very important to us, it is a two way street, we have to make some concessions for them. We will need to bring our strategic forces to a level, where a complete destruction of Chinese and Pakistani state is possible, nothing short of that. if it is, then we are as good as gone.
I don't quite agree with the strategic force level. China managed to deter the mighty soviets with just 12 bombs. China continues to deter the two major nuke powers with just 300-400 nukes which is not capable of destroying either of them.
What we need is strong conventional force. I don't see a sino-indian war going nuclear. China too is increasing its conventional force dramatically, both quantitatively and qualitatively. That is a major concern for us as well as the rest of the world. India too has to follow the same path. A hundred or a couple of hundred nukes are enough as a deterrent.
 

Adux

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I don't quite agree with the strategic force level. China managed to deter the mighty soviets with just 12 bombs. China continues to deter the two major nuke powers with just 300-400 nukes which is not capable of destroying either of them.
What we need is strong conventional force. I don't see a sino-indian war going nuclear. China too is increasing its conventional force dramatically, both quantitatively and qualitatively. That is a major concern for us as well as the rest of the world. India too has to follow the same path. A hundred or a couple of hundred nukes are enough as a deterrent.
China doesnt see us the same way they see USA and Russia. They are very aware of our soft approaches. I never said conventional forces shouldnt be a priority at all, I was only talking about increasing the strategic force. China will grab land, unless it is sure we will knock its damn wind out for sure. "Loss of face" is a great deterrent
 

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Why else is china using Pakistan against India. They know they cannot do a 62 again. A stalemate of a war is also a loss of face for them so they are using Pakistan. I dont see how China can win a war with India even with todays level of Indian preparedness. Nothing short of a drubbing is good for China and that is not going to happen.
 

Adux

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Why else is china using Pakistan against India. They know they cannot do a 62 again. A stalemate of a war is also a loss of face for them so they are using Pakistan. I dont see how China can win a war with India even with todays level of Indian preparedness. Nothing short of a drubbing is good for China and that is not going to happen.
China cant win a war with India, given. But they are using Pakistan, not because they are desperate, but Pakistan is available and that too for some lousy ruppees. If China grabs another chunk, while India is at war with Pakistan, will our politicians hit back. We have problems with Antony calling on the Navy to mount a rescue mission for sailors caught by Somali's
 

Yusuf

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China cant win a war with India, given. But they are using Pakistan, not because they are desperate, but Pakistan is available and that too for some lousy ruppees. If China grabs another chunk, while India is at war with Pakistan, will our politicians hit back. We have problems with Antony calling on the Navy to mount a rescue mission for sailors caught by Somali's
Cheap shot that will invite international condemnation and may be action. India has to play the cards well and become strong friends with the US. If india is at war with Pak and US senses any chinese movement, it can help by sending a carrier group into South China Sea. That can happen only if we are good friends with the US.Strategic friends that is.
 

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India must start preparing itself with a mind frame that neither the US or anyone in the world is going to help it counter China. India must use the Tajikistan airbase as a full fledged operating platform. It would be wise to have hardcore military talks with Vietnam. India must have some kind of military base near China.
 

Yusuf

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India must start preparing itself with a mind frame that neither the US or anyone in the world is going to help it counter China. India must use the Tajikistan airbase as a full fledged operating platform. It would be wise to have hardcore military talks with Vietnam. India must have some kind of military base near China.
Tajik base is long gone if you have missed it.
 

kickok1975

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It seems Indian members here are counting the very country which abandoned India during 1962 war. India alone is not powerful enough to challenge China and join the alliance is probably the best choice. However, such alliance is very fragile and those countries advocating Chinese threat are increasingly relying on China's market for their own prosperity. India's sanction to China will not make a dent to Chinese economy but hurting China-India relationship. Both India, China leaders still have hopes for an improved relationship and cooperation internationally where they share many common interests.

It's a dilemma for a lot of countries to face China now. On one hand they are afraid of China's rise, especially military; on the other hand they need China. The best example is probably USA.

China doesn't want destroy US. She doesn't have Soviet mindset. China just wants to grow powerful enough that no other country will threaten her. I believe India has such legitimate aspiration too.
 
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Adux

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It seems Indian members here are counting the very country which abandoned India during 1962 war. India alone is not powerful enough to challenge China and join the alliance is probably the best choice
.

Son,

The Chinese over confidence and their contempt of India is our biggest strength, We are a country with more than 300 Nukes, capable of wiping all the cities of China off the map for good for another 400 years. We have an active and technologically advanced, standing volunteer army; which is the LARGEST in the world. We have an airfroce with some serious firepower, A Navy which make sure that no OIL ever goes to China. And you still think we need allies.

We need allies, so that we can break China's back without sweating a bit.
However, such alliance is very fragile and those countries advocating Chinese threat are increasingly relying on China's market for their own prosperity. India's sanction to China will not make a dent to Chinese economy but hurting China-India relationship. Both India, China leaders still have hopes for an improved relationship and cooperation internationally where they share many common interests.
Unless and until Tibet is freed ( I support through monetary means to Tibet Camp in Coorg) and China's support for Pakistan is withdrawn, We are going to clamp you down.

READ THIS VERY CAREFULLY

From Orbat.com:

Quote:
Nonetheless, however badly it may be implementing its strategy, India does have one. We won't go into the naval part of it, except to say India is establishing naval bases an alliances with Indian Ocean states. what we will very briefly discuss is the Northern component of India's strategy, which is to bring pressure against China in the Himalayas.

Before anyone starts congratulating the Indians for their foresight and canniness, please to note the Chinese have behaved so aggressively in the north for the 15 years after the two countries decided to demilitarize their land border, that India has had no choice but to react. Let sleeping dogs lie is something the Chinese should have done, but being the Chinese, they couldn't resist repeatedly hitting the sleeping Indian dog which in its slow, fuddled, lethargic, disorganized way has started biting back. And this has shown the sheer stupidity of Chinese policy, for all that the Chinese want us to think they are so very sophisticated. The Chinese have not just pushed India into America's arms, they have triggered an Indian buildup that is going to create real vulnerabilities for them when there was no need to get into fights.


Quote:
A short backtracking into the historical time machine After India's 1962 defeat, India built up a high altitude army of 11 divisions, each with the firepower, mobility, and manpower of two Chinese divisions of the time. Since China, far from reacting, actually began withdrawing forces from Tibet as the Tibet insurgency died, bit by bit India started to stand down in the north.

We could give you a blow by blow history of what India did, but suffice it to say that by 2008, India had drawn down its China front forces to the point only four divisions of the 11 would be left in the north in case of war with Pakistan. Everything else had gone into a pool for deployment against Pakistan, even as the peacetime bases of those seven divisions remained where they were.

Fast forward to January 2011 In response to Chinese provocations, India has (a) undertaken a major expansion of strategic and border roads; (b) reactivated and expanded a large number of forward airfields and air landing grounds; (c) raised an initial batch of four new mountain divisions - more will come; (d) cleared the raising of two more independent brigades for the China border; (d) begun the process of choosing AFVs for the north, not just for Ladakh, but for the Northeast as well; (e) begun forward basing Su-30 heavy strike air force squadrons; (f) started the selection process for several hundred additional helicopters; (g) cleared the creation of new air defense brigades for the China front; (h) greatly expanded its paramilitary forces for the entire northern border ranging from Burma to the Karakoram Pass; (i) begun raising two new scouts groups for the Northeast; (j) initiated purchase of heavy lift aircraft from the US, purchased 6 + 6 C-130s specifically outfitted for commando operations behind Chinese lines; (k) begun boosting the numbers of SF battalions; (l) begun revitalizing the Parachute Brigade to give it greater capability of jumping deep behind Chinese lines in Ladakh plus lay the groundwork for a second parachute brigade; (m) accelerated networking of battlefield units - the Chinese boast about their developments, the Indians say very little); (n) accelerated a major initiative to convert the entire army to 155mm guns, phasing out mountain 75/24s, 105s, and 130s, plus induction of numbers of long-range heavy rocket launchers; (o) undertaken the formation of the first artillery division oriented specifically toward the China border; (p) begun the long process needed to bring Indian infantry into the 21st Century including networking individual soldiers; (q) begun the process of increasing infantry battalion firepower; (r) increasing AWACS, ELINT, and reconnaissance capabilities in the north. There are other initiatives for which we do not yet have details.


Quote:
Many of these initiatives were originally designed to counter Pakistan, but now the priority is the north. The west can keep.

India being India, many of these initiatives will take time. For example, the increased air mobility of the Indian Army is not proceeding speedily; contracts that seemed all-but-signed have had to be torn up and the bidding process started anew. The sorry state of the medium artillery program is well known, though the government has realized its importance - the first order for 8 regiments of lightweight 155mm guns was a consequence, more are to be ordered on a priority basis.

The important thing is that India is moving. Ponderously, slowly, but it is moving. A little known aspect of the whole show is that India is shifting - ever so slowly but ever so surely - from a pure defensive posture in the north to an offensive posture.

We wonder if the Chinese are thinking to themselves what was the point of their provoking India by building roads in Indian claim territory and patrolling aggressively. What cheap thrill are the Chinese getting by disrespecting India repeatedly? The Chinese had everything they could hope for in the Himalayas: an army much more powerful than they could counter was stood down by pulling several diplomatic fast ones on India. The Indians never intended to attack in the Himalayas, General Sundarji and the aberrations of 1986-87 notwithstanding. Their entire policy was live and let live. Wasn't good enough for the Chinese, and ten years down the line, they are going to have to undertake a massive counter build up in Tibet - for no reason except their foolishness.


Quote:
Two points in conclusion One, India does not want to be a world military power so it spends a good bit less of GDP on defense than China. We can argue about the actual figures, but a good bit less it is. At the same time, India is growing as fast as China economically; because it has a much younger population, it will overtake China in growth rates 20-25 years down the line. So India has far more leeway to increase defense spending against China than is true for the converse.

Two, if the situation in Pakistan starts cracking up, India will move rapidly to retake Pakistan Kashmir for the simple reason it cannot tolerate a jihadi state opposite Indian Kashmir. For various reasons, which we can discuss later, a jihadi state opposite the rest of the western border is not that much of a problem. If Pakistan Kashmir falls to India, China will suffer its greatest foreign/military policy defeat since it made Vietnam into an enemy - but the consequences for Chinese expansion into Central Asia will be much more serious than the loss of Vietnam was for China's position in Southeast Asia.
 

Adux

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READ AGAIN, carefully.

orbat.com

Quote:
Second batch of two Indian mountain divisions under raising The first batch of two was for the Northeast; the second division will complete raising in March 2011. The next batch of two is for Ladakh, and we thought they would be raised in 2012-2014, but but it seems raising is already under way, because the divisions have been assigned numbers. We will be unable to give numbers until Mandeep Singh Bajwa, or South Asia correspondent, confirms and says its okay.

We're wondering if Beijing realizes how unnecessary and how stupid its provocations and efforts to intimidate India have been. Previously, India had a true offensive capability against China only in the Sikkim/West Bhutan area. But now India is building a major offensive capability for Ladakh, for Middle Arunachal, and for the extreme Northeast. India is to also add an independent armored brigade and independent infantry brigade to its forces in Ladakh, with the result that from two brigades its capability will increase four-fold.

And these four divisions are only the start. The Indian Army has asked for seven more divisions, of which three are likely to be approved soon, the rest will probably wait till the next round of Chinese provocations.

How has any of this helped China? For years it has gotten by with just two brigades and frontier troops in Tibet; now it will have to respond with a major counter buildup - which of course the Indians have foreseen, which is why the Army has asked for another seven divisions, which will require China to do yet another buildup. The Chinese ego has been boosted by picking on India, but all that China has succeeded in doing is making its position in Tibet very much more difficult.

(India had a total of 11 divisions - one infantry and ten mountain - for deployment against China prior to 1971. This came down to 9 divisions by the 1990s. By 2012-13 it will be up to 12.
 

kickok1975

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Son,

The Chinese over confidence and their contempt of India is our biggest strength, We are a country with more than 300 Nukes, capable of wiping all the cities of China off the map for good for another 400 years. We have an active and technologically advanced, standing volunteer army; which is the LARGEST in the world. We have an airfroce with some serious firepower, A Navy which make sure that no OIL ever goes to China. And you still think we need allies.

We need allies, so that we can break China's back without sweating a bit.


Unless and until Tibet is freed ( I support through monetary means to Tibet Camp in Coorg) and China's support for Pakistan is withdrawn, We are going to clamp you down.

READ THIS VERY CAREFULLY
It seems you are over confident, not me, Sir.
 
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Yusuf

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Son,

The Chinese over confidence and their contempt of India is our biggest strength, We are a country with more than 300 Nukes, capable of wiping all the cities of China off the map for good for another 400 years. We have an active and technologically advanced, standing volunteer army; which is the LARGEST in the world. We have an airfroce with some serious firepower, A Navy which make sure that no OIL ever goes to China. And you still think we need allies.
Is it you Adu who has posted this or is your account compromised?
 

Ray

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China cant win a war with India, given. But they are using Pakistan, not because they are desperate, but Pakistan is available and that too for some lousy ruppees. If China grabs another chunk, while India is at war with Pakistan, will our politicians hit back. We have problems with Antony calling on the Navy to mount a rescue mission for sailors caught by Somali's
China is using Pakistan for the simple reason that an Indo Pak war is controllable, and at the same time, a controlled war can do some economic damage to India and put her back a few years.

China may, at times, crank up the ante every now and then, but that will be to establish that the border question is wide open and that China continues with her claims, notwithstanding the Indian stand. But it would be extraordinary if she goes to war with India since that would be disastrous, more so, if she 'loses face' as she did in their war against Vietnam. Vietnam was once a fraternal brother and so China could downplay the war results with Vietnam. However, with India, whom she 'taught a lesson', is the war is skewed, it will be a great humiliation to China as it would be construed that China failed to 'teach a lesson' to India and instead was taught a lesson that China should look before they leap!

In so far as Pakistan is concerned, notwithstanding the pious platitudes of China, China actually does not really care if Pakistan loses (the wars so far has shown that wherein China stated lofty thoughts, but did not raise a finger to help Pakistan). Having said that, at the same time, China would not like Pakistan to lose 'wholesale' since that would mean a loss of an excellent leverage for China against India and a loss of the 'two front' challenge.

It seems Indian members here are counting the very country which abandoned India during 1962 war. India alone is not powerful enough to challenge China and join the alliance is probably the best choice. However, such alliance is very fragile and those countries advocating Chinese threat are increasingly relying on China's market for their own prosperity. India's sanction to China will not make a dent to Chinese economy but hurting China-India relationship. Both India, China leaders still have hopes for an improved relationship and cooperation internationally where they share many common interests.

It's a dilemma for a lot of countries to face China now. On one hand they are afraid of China's rise, especially military; on the other hand they need China. The best example is probably USA.

China doesn't want destroy US. She doesn't have Soviet mindset. China just wants to grow powerful enough that no other country will threaten her. I believe India has such legitimate aspiration too.
The US has abandoned many a country once their strategic interest was completed. That is a reality and has to be cranked in, in any equation with the US.

The fact that China is a serious challenge to the US will continue and become graver as China closes the military gap. Therefore, the US' strategic interest in 'containing' China will be in perpetuity since it cannot overwhelm China militarily. Consequently, the US will have to rely on allies and partners to keep China 'in check'. India is playing on this vulnerability of the US to its own advantage.

Amongst all these political and military maze, economic will not be a victim. Trade will continue since it is beneficial to all and will help bolster the forces more through the earnings.
 
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