The World in 2024: China uber alles

Discussion in 'Members Corner' started by t_co, Mar 29, 2014.

  1. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    The World in 2024.

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    Stars are capital cities of independent countries. Red stars are enemies. Yellow stars are neutrals. Blue stars are allies.

    A peaceful place - for China.

    Here is how it happened.

    As the clock struck midnight on December 31st, 2019, Japan's government teetered on the brink of default, shouldering over ten trillion dollars of debt on a mere five trillion dollars of GDP and a population, that, thanks to long lifespans, low birthrates, and exclusion of women from the workplace, had the lowest ratio of workers to retirees in the developed world.

    One day later, North Korea declared war on South Korea, and fired ten ballistic missiles at Tokyo to 'dissuade intervention'.

    While the Japanese shot down the missiles, the fuse on Japan had been lit.

    With market skittishness in Tokyo at all-time highs, China found this the perfect opportunity to begin the long-awaited collapse in the Japanese bond market, and as the Nodongs arced over the Sea of Japan, began dumping its $500 billion in Japanese bonds. Yields skyrocketed. Private foreign investors were then forced to sell as well, because many of them were investment funds using the Japanese bonds as cheap collateral on riskier assets. The Saudis followed. Within minutes, 15% of Japan's bond market was being 'offered', but there were no incoming bids to take the securities. Japanese bond yields then rose (or bond prices then fell) over 40% in a half-hour as desperate sellers unloaded into a bone-dry market. At this point, the Japanese government shut down the bond market and set up a 'liability reconciliation commission' to sort out the nation's finances in an 'orderly and just manner', which the markets understood to mean a partial default.

    Several Asian nations were late to the selloff. South Korea, busy dealing with a North Korean invasion, saw $400 billion in paper wealth halve by the end of day. Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, too, bled heavily. On the streets of Manila, Filipino housewives who had been encouraged by the government to buy Japanese 'friendship bonds' began smashing and overturning Japanese cars. The Bangkok branch of the Mitsubishi-UFJ bank froze withdrawals, until angry depositors overwhelmed police, stormed into the vaults, and 'withdrawals' resumed.

    Russia also held over $100 billion in Japanese bonds, and it, too, was late. A dozen destroyers and submarines flying the Cross of St. Andrew slipped out of Vladivostok on 'peacekeeping exercises' as the Moscow time zone awoke. Instead of heading towards the Koreas, however, they set sail straight for Hokkaido.

    The world kept turning, and financial markets kept opening the year to bad news. Fistfights broke out on the floor of the NYSE. In Canary Wharf, the London police spread out nets and foam pads on sidewalks below bank headquarters. A hedge fund trader in Chicago parked his car atop a rail crossing; the train barely stopped in time, whereupon the trader moved his car out of the way, climbed into the locomotive, apologized to the train engineer, and shot himself.

    Even as the world economy went off the deep end, the South Koreans were having a field day. The North's attack was driven by desperation, as Beijing had finally decided to cut off its petroleum shipments. The North's divisions had limited reserves of fuel; relentless South Korean air and fire strikes on rear-area depots only made it worse. More than a half-century of preparation had paid off; engineers breached the DMZ in reverse the Korean peninsula, armored divisions penetrated into the operational rear, and infantry and artillery began rolling up isolated elements one by one.

    China sat and brooded.

    When Pyongyang was at risk, China decided to act. The leadership summoned the North Korean ambassador to Zhongnanhai, where they offered North Korea a large portion of China's 'obsolete' military inventory in exchange for China occupying North Korea's 3 northern provinces. North Korea accepted, and China sent another 10,000 artillery guns and rocket launchers, half a thousand fighter aircraft, two thousand tanks, and six thousand APCs, plus unlimited fuel and ammunition replenishment for 30 days.

    China had no misconceptions about what would happen.

    The war ended 3 weeks later. North Korea fought, and fought hard - but lost, yet lost gloriously. In the end, their tooth-and-nail resistance created over 2.5 million North Korean military dead, 8 million NK civilian dead, over 80,000 South Korean military casualties and 1 million South Korean civilian casualties. They also damaged or destroyed all infrastructure between the 38th parallel and the Yalu River, and destroyed over a quarter of Seoul's military equipment, and increased Seoul's external debt by 75%. Net net, they ensured that South Korea would be so focused on rebuilding and so hungry for Chinese trade that she would not pressure China for 15 years, and so drained of military-age manpower and military equipment that even if she so desired she could not.

    China honored their sacrifices in private, and then immediately sent envoys to Seoul as the hostilities were winding down. There, in the midst of multilateral peace talks, China's envoys offered the 3 North Korean provinces back - a shocking gesture of magnanimity that earned respect from its intended recipients - ASEAN. China also pledged resources to the rebuilding of North Korea. At the same summit, Japan, pressured by South Korea to pay its bonds in full in order to help with reconstruction, categorically refused, for it knew that agreeing to the South Korean demand at a multilateral summit would induce the other nations there to also pressure it for full repayment. And thus, with North Korea - the main reason for the South Korea's begrudging acceptance of Japan and the US - out of the way, South Korea (now Korea) was free to vent its full anger at Japan. A permanent rift was driven between South Korea and Japan at the summit, and China followed up its diplomatic goodwill by signing a non-aggression pact with Seoul.

    Meanwhile, the world's economies continued to descend into chaos. To be continued...
     
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  3. lion

    lion Regular Member

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    Cool analysis, but is it a game play story
     
  4. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    India Japan currency swap is 50 Billion now.In 5 years it will be 500billion. Your half trillion Japanese bonds flooding the market wont happen. Further, Japan is going to get some nice interest rates in India following the exodus of Japanese investment from China and into India over the next several years. So many holes in your game, I dont have time to poke all of them.
     
  5. angeldude13

    angeldude13 Lestat De Lioncourt Senior Member

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    chinese wet dreams :lol:
     
  6. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    The only reason I put it here was because the members corner doesn't allow image uploads =(
     
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  7. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    A sneak peek of a few chapters down the line - @Ray might like this part:

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    (light red is initial Chinese forces and plan of battle; dark blue is US forces; dark red is Chinese follow-on forces)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  8. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    The above is what happens after China lands 40 An-124 Ruslans and An-225 Cossacks in Monterrey each day for 6 weeks...

    40 per day*500t per trip*42 days = 840,000t of military equipment unloaded - enough for a full army corps.
     
  9. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has no star in the map:confused2:, nice effort with the story.
     
  10. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Keen eyes... I will explain that later

    In the meantime, this is for @W.G.Ewald

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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  11. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    What game is this???
     
  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    And the world stood still for 6 weeks as Chinese aircraft scoured the skies?

    Have not understood what is going on in this wargame or what is the objective/ mission.
     
  13. W.G.Ewald

    W.G.Ewald Defence Professionals/ DFI member of 2 Defence Professionals

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    Reminds me I read today that SK returned remains of several hundred Korean War dead to China via NK (I believe). Chinese KIA (unidentified, I assume) had been buried in "Enemy Cemetery" in South Korea.

    I try to find the link.
     
  14. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Supreme Ruler 2020.
     
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  15. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Supreme Ruler 2020 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

     
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  16. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, the world was busy -

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    - busy, killing each other.

    (Colored lines denote active wars; participants are 'linked' via the colored lines.)
     
  17. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Here are the active wars (participants that have ceased to exist in parentheses):

    Russo-EU War:

    Russia + (Belarus) vs. Poland + (Finland) + (Estonia) + (Latvia) + Turkey + Ukraine + Korea

    Mexican Narco Emergency:

    US vs. Mexico + Cuba

    South American Contingency:

    Brazil + Colombia vs. Argentina + Bolivia + Venezuela + Cuba + Ecuador

    Sunni-Shia War:

    Iran + Syria vs. Pakistan + Saudi Arabia + Turkey + Jordan + Egypt + Iraq + Tunisia + Sudan + Algeria

    African War(s):

    Everyone vs. Everyone, but the four major coalitions are led by Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. At least a half-dozen countries have ceased to exist.

    Asian Conflict I:

    Pakistan + Bangladesh + Sri Lanka + China vs. (India)

    Asian Conflict II:

    South Korea + ASEAN vs. Japan
     
  18. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    With so many crises happening at once, and, more importantly, US land power bound in a narco insurgency that pushes Hispanics and Whites apart in America, there is no way for the global hegemon to 'rescue' anyone, bwahahahaha...
     
  19. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Other things that have happened:

    Jordan had an Islamist coup in 2022, and then led an Arab coalition to attack Israel. Nuclear weapons were detonated in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel retaliated by nuking Riyadh, Jeddah, Mecca, Baghdad, Karachi (Islamabad and Lahore had already been hit by India) and tried to nuke Tehran (but was shot down by Iranian ABM systems). Israel no longer exists (although the Lebanese are trying to resettle what is left). The dissolution of Israel led to an immediate breakdown in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which sparked the most recent round of Sunni-Shia bloodletting.

    China is tacitly supporting Korea vs. Japan, Mexico and Cuba vs. the US, and Russia vs. the EU (in order of most to least support). Recent Korean moves against Russia have strained Sino-Korean ties, however, and are likely to spark a Chinese invasion of Korea within the year.

    China is trading cheap ammunition, consumer goods, and industrial goods with all sides of the Arab conflict and African conflicts for cheap oil and cheap minerals.

    China discovered nuclear fusion, and accordingly supplies most of ASEAN, South Asia, Central Asia, and Mongolia with electricity and cheap consumer goods, ensuring their loyalty.
     
  20. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Global GDP per capita levels have fallen to sub-2010 levels. Japan, in particular, has seen its GDP p/c fall to $12k per person per year from $29k, a consequence of energy starvation. South Korean missile strikes and air raids against Japan's nuclear power plants crippled its electricity grid. The collapse in the yen + massively rising insurance rates on Japanese shipping have curtailed its energy imports. As a result, the country suffers constant shortages of consumer and industrial goods, electricity and petrol are rationed, and meat consumption has fallen to zero as the entire country is forced to eat rice and only rice to survive.

    Russia has occupied Hokkaido.

    China may put Japan out of its misery soon, however, as it has lined up a dozen SSBNs in the Philippine Sea with 300+ warheads aimed at Honshu.

    India was actually doing pretty well against Pakistan and Bangladesh until it decided to declare war on China for supplying those two countries with weapons. Pakistan and India had a limited nuclear exchange shortly thereafter. India tried nuking China and got three warheads to hit Chongqing, Chengdu, and Lanzhou. The remainder were intercepted by China's orbital assets. China opted for 'limited retaliation', then occupied the subcontinent.
     
  21. Samar Rathi

    Samar Rathi Regular Member

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    How old are you ?(12)
     

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