The Weakest Link: How China Seeks to Destabilize the US-ROK-Japan Tria

amoy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
5,982
Likes
1,849
The Weakest Link: How China Seeks to Destabilize the US-ROK-Japan Triangle | The Diplomat
China believes it can drive a wedge in the U.S. alliance structure by expanding its ties with South Korea.

China and South Korea may aim for an even better relationship, which could help China gain favorable footing in the current strategic shuffle in East Asia. The fact is that China won't have to maintain a sort of counter-alliance against the U.S. and its allies in the region (though Sino-Russian strategic partnership can be viewed as a quasi-alliance, as China repeatedly stresses the "high-level exchanges" and "uniqueness" of China-Russian relations). The best strategy is to find your rival's weakness, which is particularly important for the relatively weaker side. For China, the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral relationship is not unbreakable.

Geometry tells us that a triangle is the most stable structure. However, it is not impossible or very difficult for China to find cracks in the U.S.-ROK-Japan triangle. This is not a perfect triangular structure; rather it looks more like the letter "V." Obviously, one side is missing, or at least it is not as firm and tight as the other two sides. The two strong sides are the U.S.-Japan alliance and the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the "missing side" is the ROK-Japan partnership. The ongoing tensions between Seoul and Tokyo, and the domestic political turmoil after then-President Lee Myung-bak tried and failed to conclude a military pact with Japan in 2012, may best explain how far these two key U.S. allies actually stand from each other.

Hence, a good strategic choice for China is to attack the "missing side" hard. Sino-ROK relations are enjoying their "best period in history" and both countries can find deeply rooted historical empathy on issues related to Japan's past imperialism. Historical empathy — not to mention South Korea's economic dependence on China — may help China and South Korea come closer in the standoff against Japan while still allowing for the special friendship between Seoul and Washington to persist.

Reaching out to Seoul is a part of China's counter-measures to the U.S. "pivot to Asia." From the perspective of alliance politics, closer ties between Beijing and Seoul may pull the rug out from under the United States' feet.

However, there are risks. The U.S.-ROK alliance has a much longer history and a more comprehensive and substantial influence on South Korea's foreign policy towards its neighbors than China-ROK relations, especially when it comes to security and ideological issues. As South Korea's most important ally, the U.S. of course wants to see the "missing side" firming up, rather than getting weaker. In the words of former Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo, the traditional U.S.-ROK alliance "has grown beyond a traditional security relationship and now encompasses shared political, economic, and cultural values." Seoul's political calculations may favor its ties to Washington over a China-ROK economic partnership. In that case, China would face more difficulties in the long term. Meanwhile, if the U.S. successfully manages an adjustment by Tokyo which Seoul accepts, the U.S.-ROK-Japan triangle may become more stable.
 

Illusive

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 20, 2010
Messages
3,674
Likes
7,310
Country flag
Re: The Weakest Link: How China Seeks to Destabilize the US-ROK-Japan

That can only happen when US abandons east asia, which is very unlikely because the need is two ways. The fact that China helps NK doesnt helps the cause. Also US has a lot of influence in SK society.
 

Ray

The Chairman
Professional
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Messages
43,132
Likes
23,834
Re: The Weakest Link: How China Seeks to Destabilize the US-ROK-Japan

More than South Korea being dependent on China, she will be more of a competitor since Korean products are world class, while the Chinese products are more quantity than quality.

Given China's propensity of claiming anything that their eye fall upon, none will ever be confident of any serious drift towards it, in the strategic sense of the equation.

The US has been a tested and worthy friend of South Korea and they will hardly be disposed of to change the equation.
 

amoy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
5,982
Likes
1,849
US blocks plans of Korea to sell T-50 planes to Uzbekistan

A South Korean newspaper reports that the United States has stopped a South Korean plan for selling a trainer jet to Uzbekistan.




A T-50 aircraft, co-developed by KAI and Lockheed Martin. Photo by Sergey Ryabtsev.


SEOUL, Oct. 26 (UPI) -- The United States is reportedly blocking a $400 million plan by South Korea to sell KAI T-50 Golden Eagle trainer jets to Uzbekistan.

The aircraft, co-developed in 2006 with Lockheed Martin, uses Lockheed Martin technologies -- including avionics -- and as such requires permission under the U.S. Arms Export Control Act for its sale to other countries.

The Korea Times , quoting unidentified sources, says that permission has been refused.

"KAI has been in negotiations with the Uzbek government to export the supersonic trainers, but the U.S. government is opposing the deal, citing possible technology leakage and diplomatic policy," a source said.

Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, was previously part of the Soviet Union. It is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose other members are China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.

"As Uzbekistan has close ties with Russia, the U.S. is worried that an export of T-50s to Uzbekistan may lead to its technologies being transferred to Russia," a military official was quoted by the newspaper.

"Despite the U.S. opposition, DAPA (the Defense Acquisition Program Administration) will step up efforts to persuade Washington to approve the deal."
 

Sameet2

Regular Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2015
Messages
120
Likes
59
Before you can come to conclusion I think you should have analyzed the reality that South korea is Allies of USA and North Korea is allies of China .

As We know that In case of any conflict America will be the Guy who will come middle without even request so it doesnt how many trade relation you have , South Korea will always be close allies to USA !
 

amoy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
5,982
Likes
1,849
No either-or situation. It's like Saudi n Israel are both American allies though they are seemingly at each other's throat. Meantime Israel can be very close with China while China voices support for Palestine.

Things are more complicated than black or white. S.Korea will always be America's ally but that doesn't translate to its hostility to China. Instead both US and China ensures no adventures by two Koreas.

~~Still waters run deep. ~~from my MiPad using tapatalk
 

punjab47

महाबलामहावीर्यामहासत्यपराक्रमासर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट
Banned
Joined
Jul 31, 2015
Messages
1,059
Likes
598
China will use shared Japan hatred. Korea also wants to expand MIC & India China pretty much only big developing markets.

Se Asia is there but they are influenced by the two.
 

Oblaks

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2012
Messages
372
Likes
123
Another of @amoy and PRC's wet dreams. Birds of the same feather flock together..which means.. ROK Japan and the US will flock together as well as China and NoKor will always be best buddies
 
Last edited:

amoy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
5,982
Likes
1,849
Another of @amoy and PRC's wet dreams. Birds of the same feather flock together..which means.. ROK Japan and the US will flock together as well as China and NoKor will always be best buddies


Do u hav any valid point to make?
 

Oblaks

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2012
Messages
372
Likes
123
Do u hav any valid point to make?
Simple..like minded nations will have the same interests. get it! On another angle, the impending question will be.. what can SoKor get from China which is worth deviating from the benefits it gets from it's relationship with the US. They don't even need to be in very good terms with Japan as the US is the common denominator.
 
Last edited:

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top