The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain China

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  1. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain China


    It’s no secret by now that the US is dead set on containing China, yet it’s shying away from engaging in a direct confrontation with it
    . Instead, the US is managing a dual policy of creating chaos along China’s western and southwest reaches, while coordinating a containment alliance along its southeastern and northeastern periphery. Central Asia, northeast India, and Myanmar represent the chaos components, while the ‘unsinkable aircraft carriers’ of Japan and the Philippines are the coordinated ones. In this manner, the US is literally surrounding the country with hostile situations and states (with the obvious exception being the Russian frontier), hoping that this can disorient China’s decision makers and consequently pave the way for the external destabilization to infiltrate inwards. Amidst all this plotting, China isn’t sitting on its hands and behaving passively, since it has three specific strategies in mind to break the Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC) and counter the US’ Pivot to Asia.

    Cultivating Chaos

    The western and southwestern strategy of the CCC is to create a destabilized ‘rimland’ capable of infecting China’s vulnerable peripheral provinces with contagious chaos. This section examines how American grand strategy in Central and West Southeast Asia is designed to do just that, while a previous publication by the author already explored the prospects of a chain reaction of Color Revolutions emanating from Hong Kong.

    Turkmenistan:
    The Central Asian ‘hermit state’ is identified as the country most vulnerable to a transnational Taliban offensive sometime in the future. Should this come to pass and the country is not properly prepared to defend itself, then the disastrous consequences would immediately spread to Russia, Iran, and China, as was explained in a previous article by the author. Pertaining to the latter, this involves the massive destabilization of China’s regional gas imports from its largest current supplier, which would of course have negative reverberations in Xinjiang, the ultimate target of the US’ Central Asian chaos policies as they apply to the People’s Republic. The more endangered and insecure China’s continental energy imports are, the more reliant the country becomes on receiving them via maritime channels, which given the US’ naval superiority, places them directly under Washington’s control in the event of a crisis.

    [​IMG]

    Kyrgyzstan:

    The chaotic threat originating in Kyrgyzstan is more tangible than the one in Turkmenistan, as the Map_of_Central_Asiamountainous republic directly abuts Xinjiang. When looking at the US’ destructive Central Asian strategy, it becomes evident that it has an interest in ushering in the collapse of the Kyrgyz government via a new Color Revolution in order to, among other things, create an Uighur terrorist haven that can enflame the externally directed ethno-religious insurgency against Beijing. From the perspective of American foreign policy, then, a crisis in Kyrgyzstan is a geopolitical lever that can be ‘pulled’ to activate more instability in Xinjiang, with the aim of potentially luring the People’s Liberation Army into a quagmire. In the general scheme of things, both Central Asian republics, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, are essentially anti-Chinese weapons waiting to be (de)constructed by the US for use against the strategic province of Xinjiang, with Uzbekistan also playing a similar role if it implodes (or is prodded to do so by the US).

    Northeast India:
    In this corner of India, which could culturally be considered the northwestern fringe of Southeast Asia, the myriad ethnic tensions and bubbling insurgencies there could make the leap from being a domestic to an international crisis. The author previously assessed that one of the repercussions of last year’s Bodo-inspired violence was to destabilize the proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) trade corridor, which would negatively affect Beijing’s plans for a ‘Bay of Bengal Silk Road’. Internationalizing the situation, however, could see ethnic warfare emboldening militant non-state actors in Myanmar, with the end goal that they finally destabilize Yunnan Province, the most culturally diverse area in China that has even been liked to “a perfect microcosm” of it. Although there is no evidence that has yet been procured to suggest that the US played any role in instigating the latest violence in Assam, it doesn’t mean that it can’t do so in the future, especially now that the die of ethnic tension has already been cast. This Damocles’ Sword is continually hanging over the head of India’s decision makers, since they understand that it can be applied against them in the event that they resist Washington’s pressure to commit more closely to the Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC).

    Myanmar:
    The greatest conventional threat to China along its southern edge (notwithstanding a hostile India) lies in the overspill of ethnic warfare from Myanmar into Yunnan. This is actually already happening, since the recent violence in Kokang (Shan State) has forced thousands from their homes and into China as refugees, where they are reportedly being seen as ‘burdensome’ to the authorities. Quite obviously, China comprehends the vulnerabilities of Yunnan to Xinjiang-like external destabilization, albeit manifested in a different manner, hence its sensitivity to what may be the reignition of Myanmar’s civil war. After all, the unexpected outbreak of violence has yet again delayed the country’s long-awaited peace talks from being concluded, which were reportedly set to be finalized prior to this.

    Now, however, other ethnic groups have become emboldened by the clashes, and are sending their own fighters and mercenaries to Kokang, which has also been put under martial law. It now looks like the fragile nationwide peace process is on the verge of being completely shattered, and the fighting may spread to other ethnic regions if their respective militias decide to take advantage of any perceived government setbacks in Kokang to launch their own offensives. All of this would lead to the deterioration of Yunnan’s security and the influx of thousands of more refugees, some of whom may even be militant-affiliated and intent on starting their own uprisings inside China. It is this factor that scares Beijing the most, namely, that Yunnan’s jungles could one day become home to Xinjiang-like fighters intent on throwing another corner of the country into chaos.


    Chaotic Patterns:
    [​IMG]
    Making sense out of this grand chaos is the fact that it does follow some semblance of order in terms of US strategy. The countries in focus are along China’s western and southwestern edge, which is already for ethnic provocations. Additionally, two of the states abutting the targeted provinces, Kyrgyzstan for Xinjiang and Myanmar for Yunnan, are inherently unstable for their own reasons, thus making them ‘ticking time bombs’ that could be prodded by the US to explode on China’s doorstep. As regards Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and northeast India, their destabilizations are tripwires for the two main ‘bombs’, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar, although the disruption of any of the three aforementioned areas does undermine China in its own right. In short, this vector of American grand strategy is aimed at the destruction of key peripheral states surrounding China in order to chip away at the strength of the central government along its own peripheral areas, two of which (Xinjiang and Yunnan) are susceptible to outside-directed destabilization aimed at ethnic agitation.

    Coordinating Containment

    On the other side of China, the US is crafting a Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC) to confront Beijing and provoke it into a Reverse Brzezinski intervention in the South China Sea (if it isn’t dragged into one in Myanmar first). Japan and the Philippines are the centerpieces of this strategy, and South Korea and Vietnam are envisioned as playing crucial roles as well. Let’s take a look at Washington’s plans for each highlighted country, as well as how they all fit together into the bigger picture:

    The ‘Unsinkable Aircraft Carriers’:

    Japan
    The remilitarization of the country under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has rattled both China and South Korea, which still vividly remember the scars of World War II. Beijing is especially dismayed at Japan’s ‘reinterpretation’ of its pacifist constitution, whereby it was decided that its ‘self-defense forces’ could assist embattled allies abroad, with analysts popularly pointing out that this likely alludes to its mutual-defense ally, the US. Be that as it may, it isn’t restricted to solely cooperating with the US, and could also support regional militaries as well, which is where the Philippines comes in.

    The Philippines
    Like Japan, the US also retains a mutual defense commitment to the Philippines, which was intensified by an additional 10-year agreement signed last summer. It elevated its relations with Japan to a strategic partnership in 2011, which made Tokyo second only to Washington in having this privilege with Manila, and it just clinched one with Vietnam, too. This is exceptionally important because it means that the Philippines is turning into the nexus connecting the three primary partners of the CCC, and that any outbreak of hostilities between it and China would likely draw in its other three partners to some extent (which will be addressed soon).

    Back-Up Support:

    Vietnam:
    This Southeast Asian state has historically been engaged in a bitter rivalry with China, expressed most recently through the 2014 anti-Chinese riots and the earlier 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. While it’s not forecasted that Hanoi will enter into a formal defense relationship with Washington akin to that of Tokyo or Manila, ties between the two have steadily warmed throughout the years, with the US easing a ban on weapons sales to Vietnam late last year in order to announce a week ago that it’ll be providing it with 6 patrol ships. Military cooperation and strategic coordination are set to only increase in the coming years, as the US brings Vietnam on board the CCC as a back-up member, although it’s not clear whether this will spill even more into the open, move somewhat into the shadows, or stay at its current level.

    Seeing as how the country shares an actual land border with China, and Beijing’s military prowess is stronger on land than it is at sea, it’s doubtful at this time that Hanoi would enter into a direct confrontation with it (unless it was assured in its ability to repeat the fortunes of the 1979 war). What is more probable, however, is that it’ll assume the role of a dual ‘Lead From Behind’ partner with the Philippines in containing China’s naval activity in the South China Sea, and could indirectly come to its aid in the event of a formal conflict. Working indirectly through the Philippines via its new strategic partnership with Vietnam, Washington and Hanoi could obscure their increasingly close military ties and thus avoid domestic outcry concerning their de-facto military alliance. Not only that, but Vietnam can also retain a degree of plausible deniability in its relationship to the CCC, although this may no longer be believable if it goes forward with deeper cooperation with the US Navy, principally in allowing more port calls and possible joint naval exercises.

    South Korea
    Seoul is the weak link in the CCC, but even so, it’s necessary to address the US’ planned role for it, no matter how successful it may be in fully actualizing it. The idea is for South Korea and Japan to form the basis of the Northeast Asian section of the CCC, but given the major issues between them (primarily their views on World War II and the Liancourt Rocks dispute), it’s going to be difficult for their governments and citizens to agree to such a thing. Taking matters even further, South Korea is being purposely ambiguous over whether it will host a US missile defense infrastructure on its territory, showing that it’s pragmatic enough in its policies to take China’s interests into consideration. This may be influenced by the fact that the two have already signed a Free Trade Agreement that represents one of the highlights of China’s regional diplomacy in recent years.

    Despite this, Seoul, Tokyo, and the Washington have linked up to share intelligence on North Korea, creating a network which could easily be directed against China sometime in the future if the ‘need’ arises. Signifying that Seoul won’t fully abandon the US anytime soon, it recently prolonged the US’ control over its armed forces during wartime until the mid-2020s. When the US’ reinforcement of power and China’s influence inroads are compared back-to-back, South Korea can most clearly be seen as an object of strategic competition for both Great Powers, even though over 28,000 US troops are currently based in the country. Therefore, it’s uncertain whether the country can fully commit to one side or another, meaning that the prospects of its full incorporation into the CCC are severely limited, although they would stand to be extraordinarily impactful if they succeed.

    Connecting The Pieces:

    Each piece of the CCC is part of a larger picture, and certain strategic strands of thought connect everything together into a semi-integrated whole. Outright conflict between China on one hand and Japan or Vietnam on the other would carry with it high costs for both sides, including economic (which may be seen as most important by Japan/Vietnam), thus serving as a counterweight to bellicosity and irresistible military provocations. The same ‘speed bumps’ aren’t as visible when it comes to the Philippines, however, meaning that the US’ second ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ might be used as ‘bait’ to tempt China into a Reverse Bzezinski in the South China Sea. While a cursory examination may lead one to immediately discount the Philippines as having any chance of military success against China, a closer examination (per the details revealed earlier) indicates that the island chain may be one big trap owing to the strategic and military relationships it has with third parties.

    [​IMG]

    In the event of hostilities between Beijing and Manila, Washington would surely offer some form of aid and support to its ally. Its actions in Ukraine can be seen as a trial run for what it can and cannot get away with (and within which time frames) in assisting a weak proxy against a Great Power, and it is expected that such strategic and logistical lessons will certainly be applied to the Philippines during any conflict it may enter into with China. Just as Ukraine has served as a rallying cry to reinvent NATO as an alliance against Russia, the Philippines may likely serve as a rallying cry to formalize the CCC into an analogous organization against China. The Philippines other strategic partners, Japan and Vietnam, would also likely rally to Manila’s defense in the same manner that Poland and Lithuania are doing for Ukraine (albeit on a much larger and more significant scale). For Tokyo and Hanoi, they can have the opportunity to project more force in the South China Sea and test various military equipment that they could rush to the Philippines (ships in he case of Vietnam and east-asia-mapdrones for Japan). Complicating matters even more would be if India and Australia, two out-of-regional states like the US, also throw their hat in the ring on Manila’s side and aid the archipelago in the same manner as Japan and Vietnam, using the manufactured conflict as an excuse to entrench their influence in the area.

    What is important here is not whether the Philippines wins (which is extremely unlikely), but the fact that it becomes the ‘Southeast Asian Ukraine’, misleadingly painted by the mainstream media as the victim of a non-Western Great Power (when in reality the roles are reversed) and partially sacrificed in order to serve as a rallying call for the solidification of the CCC. Not only would the CCC be formalized under such a probable scenario, but all of the Philippines official and non-official partners could flood the South China Sea with their support, possibly even setting up a de-facto permanent presence (even if it’s nominally referred to as ‘rotational’). Also, by coaxing China into a conflict with the Philippines (via unacceptable provocations), the CCC can also monitor how the People’s Liberation Army-Navy operates in wartime, providing observable methods and tactics that can be analyzed in crafting appropriate military countermeasures for ‘the real fight’ sometime in the future.


    Cracking The CCC Wall

    All is far from lost, however, since China has three options that it can simultaneously employ to break through the containment wall and extricate itself from the US’ planned strategic asphyxiation. Here’s what Beijing is planning:

    The South Korean Swap:
    Like was described earlier, South Korea is far from a stalwart American ally, seeing as how China has made such enormous inroads there in the past decade that Seoul has no choice but to behave in a pragmatic way towards it. This means that it becomes increasingly unlikely that it will fully commit to the CCC, which would thus remove it from the containment chain being strung around China. Beijing’s objective, then, is to maintain South Korean ‘neutrality’ in the ‘Cold War’ that the US is cooking against China, with the dream scenario being that Seoul expedite the return of control over its wartime forces and perhaps even enact limits (or staged removals) on the US military presence there. While such a development may seem like political fantasy at this point, it doesn’t mean that it isn’t the end goal that China is pursuing. Ultimately, if South Korea swaps the US for China as its preferred partner (which may steadily happen through a combination of growing anti-American sentiment, anti-Japanese resentment, and pro-North Korean attitudes). It goes without saying that such a monumental shift in geopolitics would carry with it far-ranging ripples, most immediately felt in the North-South Korean talks but possibly extending throughout the rest of the Asia-Pacific.

    Sailing The Maritime Silk Road:
    China’s most grand move in perhaps all of its history is to connect Africa-Eurasia via overland and maritime Chinese-initiated trade routes. Addressing the latter within the context of this piece, it has the possibility of transforming geopolitically misguided and potentially hostile states in Southeast Asia into pragmatic partners along the same lines as the South Korean model. Other than that major strategic benefit, the Maritime Silk Road would also obstruct the US’ Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade grouping that is meant as an anti-Chinese economic bloc. This Washington-controlled entity could potentially tie the associated economies even closer together to create the ‘economic grounds’ for an ‘East-Southeast Asian NATO’, the CCC, which is why it’s so important for China to preempt these measures through the Maritime Silk Road.

    On a larger level, China’s moves would represent a closer step towards the fulfillment of its Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific plan, which is Beijing’s counter to the TPP. It’s already laid the groundwork for this through its Free Trade Agreements with South Korea and Australia, two archetypical American allies, showing that with the ‘hard work’ out of the way, it may be easier to round up more politically pragmatic and less US-influenced entities into the framework in the near future. Taking matters further, although the Maritime Silk Road isn’t restricted solely to the Asia-Pacific, it can use the region to experiment with various diplomatic and economic approaches that can be fine-tuned and applied further ‘downstream’ (perhaps between China and East Africa) in turning the project into a truly trans-continental endeavor that might one day link all of China’s free trade regions together with one another into a macro-free trade zone.

    Strengthening The SCO:
    The third method that China can employ in breaking through the CCC is to strengthen the SCO in order to stabilize Central Asia. Not only could this prevent or quickly extinguish the chaotic threats 1426256165_period-stanovleniya-zavershen-voutlined in the first section, but if successful, it could provide a convenient overland ‘detour’ around the CCC (if it’s not neutralized or prevented from coming into existence by that time) that could strengthen the continental vector of the Silk Road project and relatively safeguard China from the US and its allies’ maritime blackmail. Although it wouldn’t completely remove such threats (which must always be factored into China’s strategic calculations), it could provide a useful and convenient outlet for engaging with the rest of Eurasia and securing valuable energy imports from the Caspian Basin. Expanding the SCO would also be a method of strengthening it, since it would expand its responsibilities to other countries that China engages with, as well as providing a non-Western forum for settling disputes that may arise between its members (for example, between China and India, or perhaps between both of them over Nepal or Bhutan).

    Concluding Thoughts

    The US is engaged in two Cold Wars in the present day, with the one against Russia stealing most of the limelight, while the one against China is still simmering. Just as it’s doing to Moscow, the US is fostering an artificial neighborhood of hostility against Beijing and subsequently linking the aggrieved and manipulated states together into a type of containment coalition. While the US’ policy is still playing out against China, it’s certainly learning a thing or two from its campaign against Russia, namely, that a crisis needs to be concocted in order to roll out the Asian vector of the New Cold War. The chaos that Washington is breeding in Central Asia and mainland Southeast Asia is more suitable for weaponization than it is politicization, hence why the US needs to manufacture a crisis in the South China Sea involving the prospective members of the China Containment Coalition. Beijing will have to adroitly maneuver between the chaos and coordination in order to withstand the grand destabilization that the US is plotting all along its periphery, but if it can succeed in its strategic counter measures, then multipolarity will blossom in the Asia-Pacific and fortify itself throughout Eurasia.

    Andrew Korybko is the political analyst and journalist for Sputnik who currently lives and studies in Moscow, exclusively for ORIENTAL REVIEW.

    The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain China | Oriental Review

    ==
    @pmaitra, @Ray, @Bangalorean @sgarg and al others

    SO..THe Myanmar conflict is just another Ukraine in the making for China.. I knew it the moment they said the bomb went of 100 kms inside CHinese terrirtory!
     
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  3. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    CCC ~ another newly coined term. It makes me think of the belling-the—cat fable 😁
    Apparently India is cunning enough not to undertake the mission. Rather it wishes other mice (read US Japan and so on) would do the service for it. Then as usual India stands aside freeloading. Of course nothing would happen as everyone is ultra calculating.

    Again here comes my transpacific Yin Yang theory ~
    China and America ~ as seemingly opposing forces are interconnected and interdependent in the world, giving rise to each other.


    ~~Still waters run deep. ~~from my MiPad using tapatalk
     
  4. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    1. North Korea.

    2. Pakistan.

    3. Stealing high technology from USA and reverse technology from Russia without their consent.
     
  5. Khagesh

    Khagesh Regular Member

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    Yin and Yang!

    Both Yin and Yang would be perfect mates in bed. Both having been humped by Viets at one time or other.

    :thumb:

    But seriously, China, if it becomes a Supa powa will be the most useless one ever.

    Targeted from all sides by Nuke states or near nuke ready states of India, Japan, Soko, Taiwan with a swimming pool for a sea where every single nation is plying its navy and only a servitude to the Americans to show for its Giant Leap Forward. Even its friends (Pakis and Noko) demanded their share in pounds of flesh. The only states with which China 'wishes' to have equality (USSR in history and USA today) have rejected it both in good times and bad.

    And what the hell will you Chinese do in that swimming pool of yours. A swimming pool in which only the Finns and Pakis do not take a surreptitious leak.

    You get a silly artificial islands base in those dotted lines and even Fillipinos will be violating your sovirginity. You are just giving your competition a new target which will be destroyed even before it becomes useful in a war and all that loss without having the other side cross any red-lines. The Americans would love to have your base there. We would too. Japs and Soko too. For Fillipinos and Viets it is a favour. A good game of hitting the vole, is all it is.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2015
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  6. Khagesh

    Khagesh Regular Member

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    How long before this gets developed into something more dangerous.

    [​IMG]

    I would say there is not much time left.
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    South Asia
    Mar 6, 2015



    US 'spying' raises Indian hackles
    By Sultan Shahin

    NEW DELHI - India's defense establishment is sending distress signals to sections of the country's media over what it considers inordinate United States interest in the affairs of India's sensitive, insurgency-infested northeast. Military officials are deeply unhappy over the ever-growing access US diplomats and military personnel are getting to disturbed areas in the region.

    An Asia Times Online investigation has revealed that the disquiet is almost a decade old, though it has grown exponentially since US ambassador to India Robert Mulford wrote to the chief ministers of Assam and Nagaland directly offering help in counter-insurgency operations in the wake of terrorist violence in October, 2004. He did not bother to go through the proper channels; that is, through the ministry of external affairs. This raised a lot of questions and controversies in the media; the central government, too, was not happy about it. But the matter rests there, and no further explanations have emerged as to why the US ambassador chose to go over the heads of the central government.

    Army officers recall it was in 1995 that, for the first time, American intelligence officials were allowed to visit remote areas in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The excuse then was the kidnapping of several foreign tourists who were never found. This neither helped the missing tourists, according to sources in the army, nor the government of India in any way. It only provided the US with an opportunity to visit remote areas normally inaccessible to foreign intelligence agencies and study how India was fighting the insurgency in those parts.

    But the biggest complaint of all is directed at the no-longer ruling right government of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, which allowed low-intensity training of US soldiers in guerrilla warfare at the Counter-Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School at Vairengte in Mizoram. A retired brigadier, who regularly writes on defense-related issues, told Asia Times Online: "The same training could have been very well imparted in the benign jungles of Madhya Pradesh or Tamil Nadu. Why open up insurgency-prone Mizoram to foreign troops? One can understand the government's desire to develop strategic ties with the United States. But we can do things more intelligently, without jeopardizing our own security interests. Why do we need to show foreigners how we are fighting our insurgencies?" (Like several other officers quoted in this article, he insisted on anonymity given the sensitive nature of the subject matter.)

    In his view, the main problem is not so much the access being given to US diplomatic (invariably including intelligence) and military personnel to India's sensitive areas, but that it is taking place despite military objections. "The main problem in India," he said, "is that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. The MHA [ministry of home affairs] would do things the MOD [ministry of defense] would not be aware of. There is very little coordination on a day-to-day basis. With coordination between the two it would be possible to provide access to foreign officials without jeopardizing our security."

    Referring to an incident that is still causing controversy, he said: "A lot is being made, for instance, of former US ambassador Robert Blackwill being allowed by former minister of home affairs Lal Krishan Advani to visit the sensitive Nathu La Pass with the Chinese on the other side of the border videotaping his every movement. But if he went on an Indian military helicopter; then I don't see how this would compromise our security. That would happen only if he went on an American military plane that would undoubtedly be electronic intelligence mounted. Also, there is criticism of his being briefed by army officers. But you know as well as I do how bland military briefings are. I very much doubt Blackwill would have learnt anything much on the trip if it was managed well."

    Sources in the defense ministry have recently briefed a section of the media about several notes of dissent that had been sent to the central government opposing the access to the northeast being given to the US military. As such notes can only be sent through proper channels and be forwarded to the government by the chief of a military wing, it has to be assumed that this has taken place at that level. And if that is the case, it has to be further assumed that a policy review must be under serious consideration by the government. But Asia Times Online could not get any confirmation of the same from either the MHA or the MOD.

    Some officers, meanwhile, warn against making much of the US interest in the region. A retired major-general, for instance, told Asia Times Online: "The US is interested in every part of the world. Why should it not be interested in the northeast? It has signed Status of Forces Agreements [SOFAs] with perhaps 92 countries, including Bangladesh. It must be able to access our borders from the Bangladesh side. What is the big deal, if it is also given access from our side?" (SOFA would facilitate unhindered entry of US troops into Bangladesh. They would not need to comply with even visa and passport formalities. Equipment and supplies would also be allowed to be brought in without being subjected to customs formalities, though the Bangladesh army would not have similar facilities in the US.)

    Former Indian navy chief Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat, however, strongly disputes this line of argument. Commenting on this, he told Asia Times Online: "I can only say that where ignorance is bliss it is folly to be wise." Reflecting on episodes like the former US ambassador visiting the strategic pass at Nathu La and the present ambassador disregarding established diplomatic procedures in directly dealing with Indian states and thus setting a precedent to be followed by other diplomats, unless strongly countered now, Bhagwat pointed out that the Indian military had been totally opposed to foreign entry into the northeast and other strategic and sensitive areas.

    Bhagwat revealed that top military officers had repeatedly cautioned the political leadership on this issue. A US ambassador being allowed to closely interact with military officials guarding India's borders with China and Myanmar, as Blackwill was by the Vajpayee government merely because he had formed a close rapport with Advani, is a precedent that needs to be strongly countered so that it doesn't become regular practice, he said.

    But why should India be afraid of US military or diplomatic personnel visiting the northeast? Insisting on anonymity, a former brigadier who is a member of several expert committees advising the government at various levels explained the issue to Asia Times Online: "India is not an ally of the US, despite all the talk of India and the US being natural allies and so on. Also, we are making nukes, while the US is spending at least a couple of billion dollars annually in countering nuclear proliferation. They clearly don't like India being or remaining a nuclear power. This means we have essentially an adversarial relationship. Both countries may be sincere in seeking to better ties at various levels; yet this essential fact remains and we have to always keep this in mind. A large portion of the billions invested in counter-proliferation since 1995 has been earmarked for India."

    But what could visiting US personnel do that would amount to a breach of Indian security? He explained further: "They could leave behind unmanned sensors in strategic locations. They need to find out locations of our various military installations. And yes, they do need to physically verify on the ground what they see from their satellites. There is no question that these people have been mapping these areas. Visits and close interaction with military personnel gives them the opportunity for subversion of our personnel. They are always on the lookout for human intelligence; after all there is a limit to how far electronic intelligence can go. They have to try and work out our nuclear doctrine. They need to get to know where our raw materials are coming from and where our bombs are being made. They need to know our deployment areas. There are sensitive locations called red areas that they should not see. We draw inner lines where even Indian citizens would not be allowed; but if Americans are left alone in the nearby areas, and given the slavish mentality of many Indians towards the white complexion of our former colonial masters, who knows where they might reach."

    Another point he made was that while the US military is desperate to understand Indian military doctrines and functioning as decades of Cold War deprived them of close interaction, Indians don't have a reciprocal need as "the Americans are an open book". This why many in the military believe that close interaction between the two militaries is more advantageous to the US than it is to India. In any case, India doesn't have global ambitions and knowledge of US doctrines or vulnerabilities is not much use to it. On the other hand, acquainting the US with its own strong points and vulnerabilities might some day prove costly to India, as no one knows where America's ambition of world domination would lead it, he added.

    One retired major-general, however, tried to rationalize both the US need to access the sensitive, insurgency infested northeast and the government of India's compulsion to allow it to do so. For instance, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has just approved a US$2.6 billion development package partly from the US for two restive northeastern states, Assam and Manipur. "You cannot receive such large development assistance packages from a country and restrict its personnel from visiting those areas for whom the financial package is meant. They have to oversee how the fund is being utilized. Even if this is a ruse and they are going for ulterior purposes, there is not much the government can do about it."

    Also, in his view India cannot be shouting from rooftops in this post September 11 world that a new sovereign Islamic fundamentalist dictatorship is in the making in the northeast and expect the US not to want to get involved. He referred to a recent series of articles written by the disinvestment minister in the previous government, Arun Shourie, in the newspaper Indian Express in which Shourie quoted intelligence reports to substantiate his fears of Pakistani intelligence working towards this end in the northeast of India with the help of sections of the Bangladesh army and ruling fundamentalists. Shourie says that Islamic fundamentalism and its ally, left-wing extremism, are responsible for grave threats to India, including the creation of a new Islamic state, which in itself justifies US concern.

    To appreciate this point, it is essential to quote from Shourie's article. He wrote: "T V Rajeswar [former director of India's intelligence bureau], at present the governor of Uttar Pradesh, had gone public with his warnings. He had warned that [because of] the way we were shutting our eyes, a real prospect had arisen that, after Pakistan and Bangladesh, a third Islamic Republic would be carved out in the sub-continent. In important articles in The Hindustan Times, [Rajeswar] had drawn attention to the districts bordering Bangladesh, and the vast and strategic region whose demographic composition was getting changed. From these figures, he had advanced two warnings. First, 'There is a distinct danger of another Muslim country, speaking predominantly Bengali, emerging in the eastern part of India in the future, at a time when India might find itself weakened politically and militarily.' And second that the danger is as grave even if that third Islamic state does not get carved out as a full-fledged country."

    With reference to this and other such writings and statements from right-wing Hindu fundamentalists, the retired brigadier and now defense analyst said: "With such fearsome dangers lurking in the country's northeast, how can the US remain unconcerned. After all, it is engaged in a war against Islam sugar-coated as a 'war against terror'. Even if we accept that US intentions towards the Muslim world are as benign as it claims, still the fact that it is engaged in an ongoing war cannot be denied. If we are so afraid of some districts in a couple of Indian states acquiring a Muslim-majority status, then we too would do better to become strategic partners in the US fight against Islam rather than being afraid of US intrusion into areas that are left wing and Muslim dominated."

    Sultan Shahin is a New Delhi-based writer.
    Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
     
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  8. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    THE US ASIAN PLAN TO CONTAIN CHINA AND OTHER ASIAN ASPIRANTS

    US has always been clear about its desire to maintain World Domination, more so, when the World got devastated economically and industrially after WWII, while the US in both these field remained practically unscathed and, more importantly, strengthened.

    The first step seized was the Brentwood Conference, where the US convinced all, under the guise of an effort to free international trade and fund postwar reconstruction, to fix their exchange rates by tying their currencies to the U.S. dollar and assured the rest of the world that its currency was dependable by linking the U.S. dollar to gold. Thus, the world got mortgaged to the US diktats and manipulations. USSR alone did not join, possibly realising the game plan. Notwithstanding, it too was affected since trade with countries were tied to the dollar.

    Russia on her own became a force to reckon with a commanding influence in East Europe and influence on Nation as they emerged from the fast collapsing colonial world. This naturally gave on to the US the lead Nation status of the capitalist and the western world.

    This status quo continued till Reagan’s massive defence build-up, which raised defence spending from $134 billion in 1980 to $253 billion in 1989. This raised American defence spending to 7 percent of GDP, dramatically increasing the federal deficit. Yet in its efforts to keep up with the American defence build-up, the Soviet Union was compelled in the first half of the 1980s to raise the share of its defence spending from 22 percent to 27 percent of GDP, while it froze the production of civilian goods at 1980 levels. The collapse of USSR was inevitable.

    On the other hand, with the demise of Mao and the rise of Deng, China powerhoused itself to rise dramatically economically and militarily, and interestingly, encouraged and assisted by the US, almost as a Schadenfreude to the crippled successor to the USSR regime in Russia. They underestimated China, possibly thinking that China was still a sleeping giant and was merely in a stirring mode in its sleep. The Chinese being the wily lot they are, played ball and utilised the time to increase its economic and military might, while US was playing out its paranoia over Russia, but striking the dagger into Russia's heart by expanding Eastward to the Russia border through sponsored Colour Revolutions and other sinister means, as also under the guise of War on Terror, overthrowing and assimilating Islamic regimes that were inimical to US interests in the Middle East. The US also to some extent succeeded in exerting a push to the Russian underbelly from the South through the CAR nations, as also encouraging China to counterbalance Russia in the CAR, which China readily did since Oil was a key component in China's economic and industrial rise, apart from her hegemonic hunger and expansionist desires.

    China, in the interim while the US was pursuing its Russia paranoia, became a formidable power and started influencing Asian and CAR nations. At the same time, China, disregarding all international laws and niceties, started pursuing her quest to superpower status, expansionism and hegemonic pursuits.

    China, being most indecipherable and apparently cavalier and irresponsible, worried the US to put out it plain, which they must have already decided up as a contingency to stall and finally checkmate China.

    Ideal was India being used as a pawn. 1962 was a landmark like Alamo in the US history. Hence, it was ideal distaste that foundations India’s dislike and suspicion of China to stir the fire in India’s loins to be used against China. Yet, US could not afford to make ‘another China’ of India since India has to the potential to rise to be a superpower if properly channelized. Therefore, while encouraging India to contest China, it was also important to keep niggles alive like the communal issues of India. Use of Pakistan, India’s ancient adversary, came handy.

    Notwithstanding high morality and American hyperbole of strategic partnership and united fight against Terror, one cannot wonder as to how is it that Khalistanis are encouraged in the US, or the connection of Headley, the double agent in the Mumbai carnage, or why the ISI has and had a free run in vilifying India, to include the infamous clique run by Fai. Fie on the US and false pretentions. If the US can surveil all anti US elements with such precision and accuracy and nab them before they can act and keep the US safe, it is surprising that they cannot fathom individuals and organisations that want to destabilise countries that have ‘strategic partnership’ with the US. Some partnership indeed!

    Prime Minister Modi may appear to be the toast of the West, they having transmogrified his earlier avatar that made him a demon. But then, that is realpolitik. They are well aware that he and his political party, the B JP, is archetypically an ideal whipping boy to arouse fear of a Hindu swamping over India and making it a theocratic State that none, including the majority of Hindus, steeped in the Nehruvian ‘secularity’ that they have made to believe is abhorrent, compared to a peaceful India, want.

    The US has deep roots in keeping India on the boil. If one only looks at Nagaland, one would realise who was the driving force behind Phizo’s separatism. It role of the Baptist Church cannot be overlooked. If one goes by the article ‘The Naga Insurgency: The Past And The Future’ by The Naga Insurgency: The Past And The Future’ by Dinesh Kotwal, Research Fellow, IDSA, the role of the US cannot be glossed over.

    Then in Mizoram, Mizoram’s Bru tribals a tribe from the Mamit district in Mizoram, had to flee to escape violence at the hands of the majority Mizos and the Christian Mizo government stopped repatriation. The majority (87%) of Mizos are Christian in various denominations, predominantly Presbyterian. How many in India have heard of the Brus or the atrocities they have faced and who did it and why?

    US ambassador to India Robert Mulford wrote to the chief ministers of Assam and Nagaland directly offering help in counter-insurgency operations in the wake of terrorist violence in October, 2004. He did not bother to go through the proper channels; that is, through the ministry of external affairs. This raised a lot of questions and controversies in the media; the central government, too, was not happy about it. But the matter rests there, and no further explanations have emerged as to why the US ambassador chose to go over the heads of the central government.

    Isn’t it interesting that the US wants to ‘assist’ in the North East without even bothering about the Central Govt that is the sole conduit of inter nation interaction? Obviously, it is more than what meets the eye.

    That said, the US has put its game plan into action to contain China, ensure with controlled pressure that India plays the US hand, and unleash chaos so that China is controlled and leashed by playing ingenuously the scare psychosis that peripheral states have of China’s unbridled hegemonic ambitions.

    Philippines, South Korea and Japan are wedded to the US strategic ambitions. Japan since it is a small nation and can be easily overrun, South Korea worried about a imbalanced leadership in North Korea that is unpredictable and irrational and supported by China and Russia, and Philippines which has no military or economic might to face China’s ambition to reach far and wide. Therefore, US rest easy here.

    The underbelly of China is where, owing to Chinese self-deluding contrived presumptions that it is 93% Han (thanks to its historical policy of ethnic genocide called ‘Sinicisation’), is ideal for exploitation. While the Bai Yu country of China on the seaboard has been lulled with money, the poorer sections in Yunan and Sichuan are ripe like low hanging fruits. Hence, the chaos has occurred in the Kokang territory of Myanmar, where Myanmar has nominal control and China’s official media says more than 30,000 refugees have crossed the border seeking safety, while unofficial estimates have put the figure much higher as per Myanmar Times of 2 Mar 2015, which also adds that other ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar have also sought to capitalise on the conflict by portraying it as an anti-China conspiracy by the United States. This message is likely to resonate among Chinese hardliners, who fear a US policy of containment that has benefited from the gradual normalisation of relations between the US and Myanmar since President U Thein Sein’s reformist government took office in 2011. Obviously if other ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar have also sought to capitalise on the conflict by portraying it as an anti-China conspiracy by the United States, then the US influence through covert means cannot be underestimated.

    While it is not feasible for the US to upset the territorial integrity or sovereignty of India or China in their peripheral States, but by fomenting unrest, it can deflect resources to include military and otherwise, so that the overall rise can be hampered and allow US its space to ‘rule the world’ on her own terms.
     
  9. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    status-quoist powers feel distressed by challenges from revisionists and create hurdles to slow down their rise by all means. c'est la vie, nothing new under the sun indeed. both ends will gradually find out ways to coexist constructively and accomdate all kinds of differences maturely ~ as has been showcased in the establishment of China sponsored AIIB with western countries pitching in as founding members.

    China shan't be tempted into an all-out confrontation with the US the superpower. She'd rather pursue a due say on world affairs unassumingly as well as self interests in proportion to her standing. Nor is there a China-vs-the-West scenario as some lesser players hope for and wish to take advantage of. China shall integrate further with the "west" in various senses, where Chinese have more in common with like minds and r more comfortable. as part of the blueprint China is enthusiastically going after C-J-K trilateral FTA, which ranks the 3rd in size globally, engaging Japan and S.Korea who're the US's top fans in the pivot to Asia. evidently our interests r interwoven in spite of gaps to bridge.

    ~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2015
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain Chin

    That is a very balanced view if China follows that in actuality.

    However, given the American gung ho psyche one wonders how far that can work out.

    Obama has tried to build bridges, but then it appears, he is out of sync with the political class as also with the Joe the Plumber majority of the US.

    Next President will surely be from the gung ho cowboy class as was seen by the most asinine demonstration of the US Senators to write to Iran unilaterally, breaking all diplomatic, foreign policy protocols that the next President will not accept the rapprochement over the nuclear issue that Obama was attempting to put in place.

    It reminds me of the manner in which Bush conducted US' destiny, all cowboy and less intellectual.
     

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