The Taiwan Issue: 85% Taiwanese do not want to join China

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by tony4562, Jul 22, 2010.

  1. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    The current state on the korean peninsular is the product of the cold war, just like the current China-taiwan situation. And like Germany before unification, the divide is ideological and economical, not religious or racial. This is a completely different from how the (british colonial) subcontinent was divided into the muslim part and the hindu part.

    Unification of Korea is a certainty, unification of China is a strong possibility, but the (mythical) unification of India is a impossibility.
     
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  3. tony4562

    tony4562 Tihar Jail Banned

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    India may have more muslims than Pakistan, but India still has a hindu majority and still has a party based on hindu ideology.

    Mythical to you indians maybe, but unification aross the taiwan strait is certainly more than just possible, and even very likely once mainland becomes a democratic society. For your knowledge at the moment the majority of the people on both sides of the strait are at least open to this idea. And with taiwan's economy becoming integrated with China's by the day Taiwan may not have a choice say 20 years from now.
     
  4. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    There are plenty of political parties in India based on Muslim ideology.

    I can definitely concede that once the mainland becomes a parliamentary democracy, reunification is possible. Good luck waiting for the day CPC decides that it no longer needs to be guaranteed power.

    Till then, reunification with Taiwan is a far cry, however much Taiwan's economy is intertwined with that of China. Look at it this way: Canada's economy is deeply intertwined with that of the United States. But that does not pave the way for political integration now, does it? Same with China-Taiwan. Economic engagement and increased economic activity cannot be interpreted as a precursor for political integration.

    Let the China-Taiwan discussion end here.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
  5. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    i am sorry, i just can't help replying to this one.

    You made a wrong analogy here by comparing Canada-US to Mainland-Taiwan.

    Have US and Canada have ever been integrated into a country?
    No, they have not. But Mainland and Taiwan have, and that was just 60 years ago.

    Do people from Canada or US have the intention to amalgamate the two into one country?
    No, they don't (i believe if US wants make Canada be part of it, Canada can't say no, or if Canada has that wish, US will not say no). But there are people from Mainland (maybe not Taiwan, i say that to avoid unnecessary argument) want to reunify with Taiwan.

    You may say that reunification with Taiwan is a far cry, that is because you only see what is going on now but never envision what will happen in the future, and it is also partly because the reunification of Mainland and Taiwan is the last thing Indian want to see.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2010
  6. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Yes, they were territories collectively governed by the British, French, and Spanish, the territories of Canada and the United States, in essence were under the same political administration, before the 15 Original States seceeded under an armed revolution to form USA, which later gained territory by annexations, and purchases. Learn some North American history.

    That doesn't make a difference. The fact that Pakistan and India were one entity 64 years ago doesn't make a difference to their sovereignty, likewise with Koreas, and likewise with China and Taiwan. We're talking about probabilities, and it's least for China-Taiwan the way it stands.

    They don't, and that's exactly my point. However much you have economic engagement, that cannot be perceived as prelude to political integration.

    Likewise, people of Taiwan do not wish to surrender freedom, democracy and economic progress for a communist state. Which is why, China-Taiwan reunification is least probable. Unless there's the sentiment of reunification from both sides, any action by the mainland that threatens Taiwan's sovereignty will be seen as an invasion, not reunification.

    No, deep inside I do wish to see all Chinese-races unite into one nation, just as I wish to see all Indian races into a nation state. The Chinese people will regain their civilizational glory and will tilt the world's power nucleus back to the East, but that will happen only when mainland adopts a proper democracy, and guarantees its people far greater freedoms. It is simply not possible with the present system in the mainland.
     
  7. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Man, let's cross our fingers and pray

    Even Both South and North Koreans themselves haven't given up their faith in ONE Korea. N,K is rich in resources and S.K. is one of most innovative and dynamic economy in the world! there's an enormous potential that can be achieved through synergy .

    Of course some may argue about the 'price' and 'pain' they have to endure towards the ideal (reunification).



    Decades ago nobdy believed E. Germany and W.Germany would unite into one as belonging to two rival camps.

    in 1970's who believed Viet Nam (most backward militants) would have been reunited into one with the omnipotent and invincible US backing the South, and China+Soviet on the other side?

    Today when we look at Taiwan and Mainland, we see less and less difference in social and economic respects. Millions of Taiwanese are actually living in Shanghai, Guangdong and Fujian counting on Mainland for market and human resources.

    The world is constantly evolving!!! Seeing is believing!
     
  8. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yusuf sir, i am sorry for not heeding you and dflecting the thread. I just can't refrain myself from replying to this.



    I am glad you used the term of territories collectively governed the someone other than the term of nation, which just indicate you fully understand the differences between nation and territories collectively governed the British or whoever it is. The fact that US and Canada had been governed under the same political administration didn't make them the same nation.

    Nation comes into being by evolving spontaneously as a whole like what US did. In the process of evolving, a bond will be developed inside it which finally hold the nation together. US and Canada have never shared that bond.



    You are making another wrong anology by bringing India-Pakistan into this discussion.

    If you study India-Pakistan and Mainland-Taiwan on a case-by-case basis, you will find two huge differences between the two, which essentially distinguish India-Pakistan from Mainland-Taiwan.

    First and foremost, neither India nor Pakistan claims over each other or has the intent to unify with each other any more. Note here in the case of India-Pakistan, BOTH give up the idea of integrating the two into one country ong time ago when they chose to split.

    But in the case of Mainland-Taiwan, mainland has always been claiming over taiwan, and will not give that up in a forseeable future. Even Taiwan didn't stopped claiming over mainland until 1990s. You may argue that Taiwan doesn't want to unify with Mainland at all as of now which i will not controvert, but you should understand in the scenario of reunification, the reluctance displayed by the side to be reunified is very common.

    Second, in the case of India-Pakistand, the two are different sovereign countries, which reduce the possiblity of reunificaiton. In essence, Taiwan is not an independent sovereignty yet(others please do not jump on me for this one, this is simply a fact), and mainland's sovereignty over taiwan is acknowledged by most nations in the world.

    Economic engagement is crucial in political integration. Without it, political integration is just a wet dream. CCP didn't realise it before, fortunately they awaken to that simple fact now.

    I would like to use US-Canada as a case to illustrate my point, it seems you missed something in my precious post. No doudt the economies of US and Canada are closely interwinded with each other, which leads to the extremely close interrelation between US and Canada. In my opinion, the two have got everything they need to form a common coutry except intention to do that. Neither of them has that intention, i believe if either of them proposed that idea, we will see the two become one country. If Canada proposed, US will not refuse, if US propose, Canada dares not refuse. Why, all because their economy is closely binded.

    What lacks in the case of the Mainland-Taiwan is the closely binded economy we mentioned above. We don't lack intention here, intention from one sie is enough.

    China mainland evolves, i wish i could convince people on that. After doing that several times, i realize it is futile to tell people that China is changing, so this time i decide not to go there.

    I only reply to the words regarding sentiment of reunification. The sentiment of reunification from taiwan is not expected by mailand, we don't count on that. As long as the a strong economic bond between mainland and taiwan has been formed, reunification will happen whichever side pushs it. In short, sentiment from one side is just enough.

    Indian people stress on western democracy too much, the earth still revolved before Montesquieu was born. Democracy indeed is something, but definitely not everything.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2010
  9. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    You're still not getting my central point. Economic engagement does not lead to political integration.


    The only differences between India-Pakistan and China-Taiwan is that India and Pakistan were partitioned to segregate people on religious lines, whereas China and Taiwan became two distinct sovereign states on mode of governance. Mode of governance is a more powerful segregating-factor than religion. Mode of governance affects everyone whether or not they like it, while religion is optional. Which is why, India went on to call itself a secular country, and Pakistan's very existence is threatened by its religious fundamentalism.

    Like I said, you need BOTH countries to have the sentiment of reunification. So merely Mainland having that sentiment and Taiwan not, is no different from neither countries having it.

    For the same reason, protecting Taiwan's sovereignty will be in the vested interests of major world powers, for as long as the people of Taiwan don't want CPC over their head.

    No it is not. In case of German reunification, there was a strong surge of nationalism to rebuild the Germany that broke up, on both sides. The sentiment of reunification crystallized in East Germany. Also note, that in the end East Germany merged with West Germany, to adopt West Germany's mode of governance (a capitalist democracy with greater degree of freedoms than in East Germany).

    It's only when Mainland can offer a functioning democracy with no overhead state that Taiwan can even consider reunification. Neither will the people want to reunite with a country to get a Communist over-state nor will democratic forces in the world allow Taiwan to be forced to accept that fate.

    The fact that Taiwan is not an independent sovereignty yet doesn't matter. World powers are willing to protect its sovereignty. America supplies it with the latest military technologies, while although there is no official recognition, foreign trade with Taiwan ends up as money reaching Taipei, not Beijing.

    Only when there is sentiment for reunification on both sides. Otherwise political integration only ends up as a wet dream of one party.

    Yes, there is no "intention" for political integration, and that political integration comes with that "intention" to exist on both sides. There is no "intention" in Taiwan for reunification with China, and hence economic engagement cannot be viewed as a primer for political integration.

    No, intention from one side is not enough. That's as ludicrous as assuming reunification of India-Pakistan is justified with just India having the "intention" of doing so.

    No doubt China is changing. It's only when Taiwan is able to see that change as in the best interests of its people, that you'll be able to see that sentiment of integration Chinese people claim to have. The only thing that can convince Taiwan and the world that the people of Taiwan are better off under Beijing's rule is that China has a proper democracy.


    Not just India, every democracy does. The world revolved before Montesquieu was born, and the world certainly revolved before Mao was born. Democracy is more than Communist-Dictatorship. At least for Taiwan, which does not need it, and can elect its own representatives.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2010
  10. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Taiwanese wary about China amid warming ties


    By ANNIE HUANG, Associated Press Writer – Fri Jul 30, 3:12 am ET
    TAIPEI, Taiwan – In the crowded Taipei theater, Eddy Fang laughs politely at the Chinese ensemble's comic references to jealous husbands and overweight wives but can't help thinking it's all a bit lowbrow in relatively sophisticated Taiwan.
    The performance by the Zhao Benshan troupe from Liaoning province ostensibly aims to bring the Chinese and Taiwanese closer culturally and overcome the love-hate relationship they have shared for decades.
    But the crude comedy "underscores more of our cultural differences than our similarities," observes Fang, a 36-year-old office worker in Taipei, the capital of the island that broke away from China 61 years ago.
    Despite China's efforts to win over local hearts and hasten the return of the island to mainland control, the cultural gap between the two peoples remains as large as the 100-mile (160-kilometer) wide Taiwan Strait that separates the two sides.
    In the two years since Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou took office, relations between the once bitter enemies have warmed considerably, sparked by a sharp uptick in commercial initiatives — including last month's landmark trade deal — and China's soft pedaling of its long-standing threats to take over Taiwan by force.
    Rather than calling attention to the estimated 1,300 missiles now aimed at Taiwanese targets, Beijing is resorting to a well-modulated charm offensive led by free spending tourists, freer spending purchasing missions and entertainment ensembles like the Zhao Benshan.
    But the closer ties and the attempts by Beijing to play up both sides' common cultural history may actually highlight the ways the island and mainland have grown apart in their decades of postwar separation.
    Taiwanese artist Su Hui-yu, 34, insists the island's 23 million people don't identify culturally with the mainland — despite their common language — because 50 years of Japanese colonial rule and another six decades of political separation has created a distinct Taiwanese identity.
    "In Taiwan, you can see traces of the Chinese culture," Su said. "But unlike China's continent-based culture, Taiwan has a young, ocean-based culture, which is more adaptable and open to all foreign influences."
    Su noted Taiwanese authorities have switched to using an ultramodern Taipei skyscraper as a symbol of the island, dropping the long-used image of the National Palace Museum — the celebrated Taipei repository of Chinese art, whose contents were spirited to Taiwan in 1948 and 1949 by Chiang Kai-shek's retreating Nationalist forces.
    "Young Taiwanese see the museum's artifacts as Chinese, not Taiwanese," he said.
    Thirty four-year-old tour guide Tai Kai-lin identified another aspect of the cultural gap between Chinese and Taiwanese — the tendency of some mainlanders to be less cultivated and polite than their island cousins, who pride themselves on their good manners and restrained behavior.
    "All they bring here is their litter and their spittle," said Tai, referring to the tendency of some mainland visitors to expectorate freely during their visits to Taiwanese landmarks.
    Recent college graduate Quentin Hu, 24, says all that's unimportant because of the considerable economic benefits the Chinese visitors are bringing to the island. Government statistics show that in 2009, 953,000 mainland tourists spent $1.13 billion and accounted for 0.49 percent of Taiwan's GDP. Expectations are that the number of tourist arrivals could grow by as much as 25 percent this year.
    "In the long run mainland visitors will boost our service industry and economy substantially and everyone here will benefit from that," Hu said. "So I don't mind some of the minor inconveniences they bring."
    Hu's comments were echoed by freelance writer Jean Chiu, 52, who said initiatives like last year's government decision to end a long-standing ban on advertising by Chinese companies will deepen understanding between the sides, despite charges that some Taiwanese publications might slant their treatment of China to gain ads from mainland firms.
    "Our media are heavy with China coverage because people need to know more about the mainland," she said. "We don't have to worry too much."
    But many Taiwanese do worry. Their belief that Beijing is camouflaging the true purpose of its cultural exchanges and touristic onslaught — bringing the island into its fold — may have led them to focus on the cultural differences between the two sides and fed the desire to keep a separate Taiwanese identity.
    Opinion polls remain split on how friendly Chinese intentions toward Taiwan really are, but all show a continuing resistance to accepting Chinese control, the ultimate aim of Beijing's Taiwan policy for the past six decades.
    "The Chinese are more friendly lately, but with a political purpose," said Fang, the theatergoer.
    Bao Guozhong, a tour operator from Fujian's capital of Fuzhou on the mainland, doesn't see what all the fuss is about.
    "We have the same roots and should get along well," he said.
     
  11. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Are Taiwanese Chinese?

    During the last census (i.e. year 2000) in the United States, there were three sub-categories for East Asian Americans. The three categories were Chinese-Americans, Korean-Americans, and Japanese-Americans.

    There was an uproar over the three sub-categories for East Asian Americans. People of Chinese, Korean, and Japanese descent were upset that they were singled out on the census. On the other hand, other people felt excluded. Andy Rooney, who is Caucasian, complained that it was unfair to create three special ethnic categories for Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese only; while others had to pick White, Black, Hispanic, or some other broad category. Andy Rooney is an influential and long-time commentator on CBS's 60 Minutes program. The government responded by saying that it would eliminate the three sub-categories in future censuses. The government also commented that there are other ways to collect the information (on the three ethnic groups).

    Taiwan is part of East Asia and Taiwanese-origin Americans can only choose from the three sub-categories. Obviously, they selected the Chinese-Americans box. Furthermore, if you tell an American that you were originally from Taiwan, they will say, "Oh, you're Chinese." If you don't believe me, ask your friends in the United States.

    Chinese American - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "Within this community, the term Chinese American is often broadly defined to include not only immigrants from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau and their descendants but also immigrants and descendants of people from Taiwan[6]"

    A prominent example of a Chinese-American is Elaine Chao. Her picture is prominently displayed to the right in the Chinese-American article on Wikipedia. She is the first Chinese-American Cabinet member, as Secretary of Labor, in U.S. history. She served in the George W. Bush administration. American TV and print media virtually-always referred to her as Chinese-American.

    American Street Blog Archive HUD Secretary will resign

    "Elaine Chao is the first Chinese American, and the first Asian-American woman cabinet member in US history. She’s also the only original cabinet member still serving in the Bush administration."

    Elaine Chao - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "The eldest of six daughters, Chao was born in Taipei, Taiwan...."

    Though she is a Chinese-American, Elaine Chao was born on Taiwan. In the American mind, there is no such thing as an ethnic Taiwanese-American. There are only Chinese-Americans of Taiwan-origin.

    Want more proof? Let's see what a Taiwanese, YU Ming, in America thinks.

    Taiwanese-Chinese,Chinese-Taiwanese - Topix

    "I'm a native taiwanese as they call it, but i'm also a chinese, no problem with me being a Chinese, i'm even a DPP supporter.
    we in taiwan are separated with the communist chinese politically , but we are still culturally and ethnically the same, soon we'll be economically connected."

    There you have it. The American government thinks Taiwanese are Chinese. The American people think Taiwanese are Chinese. American TV and newspapers think Taiwanese are Chinese. Native Taiwanese think they are "also Chinese." Join the consensus-bandwagon. Repeat the mantra: "Taiwanese are Chinese."

    The Taiwanese are ethnic Chinese. They are both Han people. Chinese and Taiwanese share the same history and they both revere Confucius, Sun Yat Sen, etc. Chinese and Taiwanese share the same language. They both speak and write in Mandarin. They share the same culture (i.e. Feng shui and Qingming Festival / Ancestors Day). Many rich Taiwanese have donated schools and/or hospitals to their ancestral towns on Mainland China. Most Taiwanese have grandparents and/or can point to a particular village in China where their ancestors lived.

    Last year, the chairman of Taiwan's ruling party KMT paid homage to his ancestors in Fujian province on China (see KMT Party chairman pays tribute to Hakka ancestors in SE China - Xinhua News Agency | HighBeam Research - FREE trial ). He wasn't the only one to honor his ancestors. A few years ago, the chairman of Taiwan's People First Party paid his respects to his ancestors in China's Hunan province. "He will also visit the primary school where he once studied and have a brief reunion with his younger female cousin Liu Manjun in Xiangtan after being gone for more than half a century, said sources with the Hunan provincial government." See http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200505/0...508_183916.html

    The name of Taiwan's national airline is...China Airlines. See China Airlines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    I want to take this opportunity to make a prediction. You heard it here first. The China-Taiwan Chunnel (i.e. underwater tunnel) will be built during our lifetime.

    Beijing-Taipei Railway (includes Chinese Chunnel)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  12. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    "One China" Policy

    The One China situation of Mainland China and Taiwan must be looked at in the proper historical and current world context. As former President Jiang Zemin said to President Bill Clinton, Mainland China views Taiwan as being analogous to the American Civil War. For fifty years after the civil war in 1949, Taiwan had always unanimously agreed that the Chinese Civil War was unfinished. For decades, the KMT plotted to retake Mainland China by military force.

    However, in the last ten years, the bad DPP party decided to push for Taiwanese independence. You cannot just walk away from a fifty-year civil war and unilaterally declare that it is over. Just like the American Civil War, secession is not recognized unless the whole country agrees to it. Secession is illegal. Similarly, Taiwan may not secede from China. The Chinese Civil War is unfinished.

    In 1971, Taiwan was ejected from the U.N., because the world only recognizes one legitimate seat at the U.N. for China. The U.N. and the world agree with Mainland China that it is the sole representative of China and Taiwan. Hence, the consistent pledges of adherence to the "One China" principle by every major country in the world.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nation...Resolution_2758

    "United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 25 October 1971 recognized the representatives of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as "the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations" and expelled the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek "from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations".[1]"

    U.S. reaffirms commitment to one-China policy - People's Daily Online

    "U.S. reaffirms commitment to one-China policy
    08:11, March 30, 2010

    The United States on Monday reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China policy, saying that it' s a commitment that should be the bedrock of the foundation of its relationship with China.

    "The U.S. position on one-China policy is unchanged," Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said at a briefing at the Foreign Press Center in downtown Washington D.C.."

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/21/...in1426114.shtml

    "Mar 21, 2006 ... Russia, China Pledge Closer Ties ... "Russia will continue the policy supporting 'one China' declared by the Chinese government ... and ..."

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_...n/er/111567.pdf

    "Nov 30, 2009 ... The EU reaffirmed its commitment to one China policy and ... follow-up EU-China NZEC project, and the pledge by the European Commission ..."

    http://nigeria2.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/Chi...0204389659.html

    "Feb 16, 2007 ... China, Japan pledge to strengthen defense exchanges ... He noted that the Japanese government has always supported the one-China policy. ..."

    http://www.twocircles.net/2008jan14/india_...ooperation.html

    "Jan 14, 2008 ... India, China Pledge To Promote Nuclear Cooperation ... New Delhi declared its adherence to "one China" policy and Beijing supported India's ..."
     
  13. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    "U.S. does not support Taiwan"

    Here is the bottom line. Taiwan does not get to decide. Mainland China speaks on behalf of all Chinese and the U.S. recognizes this truth. Here is an important quote from the website of the U.S. Department of State.

    Taiwan

    "Significant migration to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland began as early as A.D. 500. ..... There are a number of small political parties, including the Taiwan .... in China, and more than 70000 Taiwan companies have operations there. .... In keeping with our one China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan ..."
     
  14. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    "One China" Policy means No Taiwan Statehood

    One-China policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "The One-China policy (simplified Chinese: 一个中国; traditional Chinese: 一個中國; pinyin: yī gè Zhōngguó) states that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is the sole legitimate government of mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Countries seeking diplomatic relations with the PRC must acknowledge this policy and refrain from maintaining official relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan)."

    India to continue one-China policy_English_Xinhua

    "India to continue one-China policy
    XINHUANEWS 2008-03-13 21:29:45

    NEW DELHI, March 13 (Xinhua) -- India will continue to abide by the one-China policy and oppose any activity that is against the one-China principal, said Navtej Sarna, spokesman of Indian Ministry of External Affairs on Thursday.

    In an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Taiwan issue, Sarna said the government of India has followed the one-China policy and does not have diplomatic or official relations with Taiwan. The India's policy is consistent and has been conveyed to the government of the People's Republic of China on several occasions.  

    Most recently, he said, during the prime minister of India's visit to China in January 2008, in a joint statement, the Indian side recalls that India was among the first countries to recognize that there is one China, and that its one-China policy has remained unchanged.

    "Our prime minister's meetings with the Chinese leaders conveyed India's one-China policy clear and consistent. India has never supported Taiwan independence or UN membership. I think that should make our position clear," said the spokesman."

    From a prior post:

    India, China Pledge To Promote Nuclear Cooperation | TwoCircles.net

    "Jan 14, 2008 ... India, China Pledge To Promote Nuclear Cooperation ... New Delhi declared its adherence to "one China" policy and Beijing supported India's ..."
     
  15. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Do Young Taiwanese want to Reunify With China?

    The views of young Taiwanese (e.g. "people in their twenties or early thirties") on Chinese reunification are extremely important. They are the next generation of leaders. When the elder generation dies from old age, Taiwan will belong to today's young people.

    Gilbert B. Kaplan: Letter from Taiwan: 100 Million Manufacturing Employees Next Door

    "Gilbert B. Kaplan

    Former Deputy Assistant and Acting Assistant Secretary of the U. S. Department of Commerce
    Posted: December 29, 2009 01:05 PM

    Letter from Taiwan: 100 Million Manufacturing Employees Next Door
    ...
    Taiwan prides itself on being a merger of Chinese, Japanese and Western culture. There is definitely a feel of all three in the country. The United States used to have a special relationship with the small state, though that has definitely faded. Now, for Americans, perhaps the most important thing about Taiwan is what its younger generation is saying. Speak to people in their twenties or early thirties, and they basically have given up on resisting China. They think the game is over and that it would be better to simply merge in some way with the mainland. This marks a dramatic shift from about ten years ago, when one engineer I was working with on Taiwan said "China, we hate China. We don't want to have anything to do with them. They are so poor." The mainland was viewed as backward, uneducated, and politically oppressed. Now the concern is almost the reverse.

    Most young people believe there will be no future without being part of China. Some talk about a merger into China in 50 years. The standard of living on the mainland, long much lower than in China, is catching up. In the Shanghai region, most often compared to Taiwan, the yearly GDP per capita is within several thousand dollars. Yes, there is a catch. Ask a young Taiwanese what they think about freedom of speech and political rights, clearly denied in China as made strikingly clear by the eleven year sentence given to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo last week. They shrug, "yes, those are important, but..." And then it seems hard for them to finish the sentence. They usually get around to saying, with some hesitance, that economic prosperity and economic security are more important than "rights," and, anyway, what can they do about the inexorable march of "progress."

    It probably will not take 50 years for China to take over Taiwan, and China would probably not put up with the situation for that long. Now will they have to. China's business model is working against Taiwan, as it is working against the rest of the world, but faster and more effectively. The de facto merger is occurring, in part, as a result of industrial relocation into China by the major Taiwanese manufacturers, the companies that had comprised much of the Taiwan "economic miracle" of the 1980's and 90's. China, flush with money from it's aggressive mercantilist trading strategy, has provided a host of incentives to Taiwanese companies, making them offers they can't refuse. The Chinese have created special government run industrial parks just for Taiwanese companies. They have created an entire section in their laws on providing incentives to the Taiwanese to build-up industries within mainland China. And they have a special set of grants and benefits they give to what they call "off-shore" Chinese who are bringing their companies back to China. Coupled with benefits on the cost of labor, almost every Taiwanese company comes knocking on China's door."
     
  16. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Current Status of Chinese Reunification Talks

    The current status of peace talks on Chinese reunification is as follows:
    ..........
    BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China offers Taiwan peace talks

    "Page last updated at 02:27 GMT, Thursday, 5 March 2009

    China offers Taiwan peace talks

    Wen Jiabao addressing National People's Congress - 5/3/2009
    Any peace talks would be held under the "one-China policy", Mr Wen said

    China is ready to talk to Taiwan about ending hostilities, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said at the start of the annual session of China's parliament.

    Mr Wen said China was ready to "create conditions for ending the state of hostility" with the island.

    Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which split from the mainland at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.

    Relations between the two have improved since last year when a new president, Ma Ying-jeou, was elected in Taiwan."
    ..........
    Taiwan to China: remove missiles before peace talks | World | Reuters

    "Taiwan to China: remove missiles before peace talks
    Tue Apr 6, 2010 3:51pm IST

    TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou demanded on Tuesday that China remove missiles aimed at the island before any peace talks, comments that could slow recent momentum in relations, including two-way trade that has reached $109 billion."
     
  17. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China-Taiwan "free-trade pact"

    China-Taiwan economic integration is under way.

    BBC News - Taiwan and China agree details of key trade deal

    "Page last updated at 14:27 GMT, Thursday, 24 June 2010 15:27 UK

    By Cindy Sui

    [​IMG]
    BBC News, Taipei Taiwan delegation head Kao Koong-lian (R) shakes hands with Chinese counterpart Zheng Lizhong at the talks on 24 June. The two sides have been negotiating the deal for months.

    Taiwan and China have finalised details of what many believe will be the most important agreement between the two sides in 60 years.

    The agreement - similar to a free-trade pact - will cut export tariffs and give more access to each other's market.
    ...
    Following a year of negotiations, the two sides hammered out the agreement on Thursday. It gives Taiwan more economic benefits than China.

    More than 500 Taiwanese products - including auto parts, petrochemicals and fruit - will be able to enter the booming Chinese market with reduced tariffs immediately and no tariffs within three years.

    Only about half the number of Chinese products will get similar treatment in Taiwan.

    Taiwan's government said the deal will boost trade, increase economic growth and help the island's exports stay competitive.
    ...
    The agreement is scheduled to be signed in China next Tuesday."
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2010
  18. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Economic effects of China-Taiwan free trade agreement/ECFA will resemble NAFTA

    I think it is safe to say that trade between China and Taiwan will double or possibly triple (if the ECFA has the same effect as NAFTA) in the next 15 years.

    NAFTA Pros and Cons

    "NAFTA Pros and Cons
    Thursday April 24, 2008
    See Update - July 10, 2009

    The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA has become an important point in the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Both Democratic candidates promise to either amend or back out of the agreement. Senator Clinton wants to halt all new trade agreements and strictly enforce existing agreements, including all regional trade agreements.

    Senator Obama blames "politicians in Washington" for signing trade agreements that he says are bad for the economy because they provide perks for businesses but don't protect workers.

    NAFTA is the world’s largest free trade area. The agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico links 439 million people and produces $15.3 trillion in goods and services annually. Some of the advantages include a tripling of trade between the NAFTA signatories from $297 billion in 1993 to $903 billion in 2007. Critics say that the agreement has led to a net loss of 879,000 jobs in the U.S., and a decline in labor protection and degradation of the environment in Mexico."
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2010
  19. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Taiwan's impetus for ECFA is response to China-ASEAN FTA

    I would be remiss to not mention that the impetus for Taiwan to sign the ECFA is to remain competitive against China's other trade partners, such as ASEAN. The China-ASEAN FTA (i.e. free trade agreement) came into full effect on January 1, 2010. You can read the economic ramifications of the China-ASEAN FTA at the following link:

    China-ASEAN free trade area starts operation_English_Xinhua

    "China-ASEAN free trade area starts operation
    XINHUANEWS 2010-01-01 13:13:26

    NANNING, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) kicked off their free trade area (FTA) on Friday.

    The world's largest FTA embracing developing countries covers a population of 1.9 billion and China-ASEAN FTA sets stage for economic integration involves about 4.5 trillion U.S. dollars of trade volume.

    The average tariff on goods from ASEAN countries to China is cut down to 0.1 percent from 9.8 percent."

    [​IMG]

    Big jump in exports to China

    "Thursday April 1, 2010
    Big jump in exports to China

    MALAYSIA’S exports to China increased by 143% last year compared with 2006, said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Mustapa Mohamed.

    The export value was RM8.4bil last year with a total of 23,424 certificates of origins issued, he said.

    “This means that Malaysian companies are benefiting from increasing exports after the implementation of the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in July 2005,” he said.

    Under the Asean-China FTA, the import duties were reduced in stages.

    On Jan 1, import duties were abolished when 90% of products traded in Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and China became duty free.

    “The import duties of the remaining 10% would be reduced eventually,” he said in his reply to Charles Santiago (DAP-Klang).

    Mustapa said products exported to China included rubber, vegetable oil, stearic acid, raw palm oil and acetic acid.

    Total exports of Malaysia to China was RM67.24bil while imports from China was worth RM60.66bil last year.

    “Malaysia enjoys a trade surplus of RM6.58bil with China,” he said.

    Mustapa said the ministry had yet to receive any negative feedback from local industries on the implementation of Asean-China FTA.

    “The iron and steel industry sector is worried about the stiff competition from China,” he said.

    Mustapa said the Government would monitor the impact of the FTA and would take the necessary steps to ensure that the local industry could compete with China.

    “Malaysia will continue to discuss with other Asean countries to ensure that Asean-China FTA would not bring adverse effects to Asean,” he said.

    Currently, the Government ensures that imported products from China met the standards in all aspects including health and security."
     
  20. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China's Manifest Destiny

    Kuomintang News Network

    "Who would have anticipated that an unveiling ceremony for the erection of a segment of the Berlin Wall, which Germany presented to the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD), would have caused an embarrassment. On Monday, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, who is also the chairman of the TFD, presided over the ceremony. After the ceremony, a journalist suddenly asked him if the segment of the Berlin Wall erected in the TFD’s yard signified that Taiwan and the Mainland would eventually be reunited.
    ...
    Fortunately, President Ma did not attend the unveiling ceremony for the erection of the segment of the Berlin Wall in the TFD’s yard. Otherwise, he would have had to decide how to answer the journalist’s question about the meaning of the dismantling of the Berlin Wall--the collapse of communism or unification for the two Germanys?"

    Two important groups of people, both current world economic powers (e.g. China is the world's largest exporter; Germany is world's second-largest), were separated after World War II. The ethnic West and East Germans had the support of the United States in their desire to reunify, which was accomplished in 1990. See German reunification - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The United States permitted and even encouraged reunification because a reunified Germany would strengthen NATO and the European Union. In American eyes, a reunified Germany is good for America.

    In sharp contrast, the US has steadfastly opposed the reunification of ethnic Mainland and Island Chinese. The US passed a national law called the Taiwan Relations Act to keep the Chinese apart as long as possible. See Taiwan Relations Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "The act stipulates that the United States will "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States".

    This act also requires the United States "to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character", and "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." Successive U.S. administrations have sold arms to the ROC in compliance with the Taiwan Relations Act despite demands from the PRC that the U.S. following legally non-binding Three Joint Communiques and the U.S. government's proclaimed One-China policy (which differs from the PRC's One-China Policy). The Taiwan Relations Act does not require the U.S. to intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan, and the U.S. has adopted a policy of "strategic ambiguity" in which the U.S. neither confirms nor denies that it would intervene in such a scenario."

    The United States will do everything possible to prevent a reunified China. A more powerful reunified China is not in the interest of the United States; which wants to remain as the world's sole superpower. A reunified China is definitely bad for America.

    As the Germans have shown, even after decades of forced separation, ethnic kinship cannot be denied; it can only be merely delayed. For ethnic Chinese that celebrate Qinming Festival / Ancestors Day, "blood is thicker than water (i.e. family relations are more important than all other relationships...)." See GoEnglish.com Idioms = "Blood Is Thicker Than Water" = Today's English Idioms How much longer can US influence keep the Chinese apart is anybody's guess. The outcome, however, is not in doubt. The pattern of reunified Yankee and Confederate America and reunified West and East Germany is clear. History knows that Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese compatriots are destined to live in a reunified China.

    After American (e.g. 1865) and German (e.g. 1990) reunifications in the 19th and 20th centuries respectively, China is next in line for reunification in the 21st century. This is China's Manifest Destiny.
     
  21. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Taiwanese are Chinese in every respect except for the debt that Taiwan owes the U.S.

    Taiwanese are Chinese in every respect. The history, culture, customs, location on Mainland China where every Han knows the birthplace of their ancestors, food, language, mannerisms, and other endless similarities.

    Taiwan is already technically a part of China under the "One China" policy. However, Taiwan is not under direct Mainland China control for two reasons. Firstly, Taiwanese like to run their own little island and they would like to maintain this independence for as long as possible. It is rational for most Taiwanese to delay reunification until China is fully modernized.

    The second reason (and arguably the more important one) is that most Taiwanese know that they owe the U.S. a tremendous debt for maintaining Taiwan's independence during the Cold War. Without U.S. military and economic support, Taiwan would have ceased to exist many decades ago. Most Taiwanese understand this debt to the United States.

    Due to the opposition of the United States to reunification, there is not a serious effort in Taiwan by either the president or the populace to push forward with reunification. While there is no formal U.S. opposition, every major U.S. organization, think tank, and media (i.e. Heritage Foundation, Jamestown Foundation, Atlantic Monthly, New York Times, L.A. Times, Time magazine, Newsweek, Forbes, and endless others) insist on reunification only if Mainland China is democratic.

    The United States has worked hard to help create the conditions for a prosperous democracy in Taiwan. The U.S. will not let Taiwan go, except under conditions that are acceptable to the United States. The idea of a non-democratic Mainland China swallowing a democratic and prosperous Taiwan is a non-starter.

    Hence, we have the current status quo. The pledge by the U.S. to adhere to the "One China" policy keeps China happy and assures them that Taiwan will eventually return to the motherland. Taiwan is currently governing the island and that keeps the U.S. happy. Most Taiwanese just want to enjoy their lives and wish that Mainland China and the U.S. can work things out between them.

    The bottom line is that Taiwanese are Chinese. However, Taiwan's historical debt to the United States for its existence means that no Taiwanese is willing to look an U.S. official in the eye and inform them that Taiwan is pushing ahead with reunification without U.S. approval.

    This precarious state of affairs will not last indefinitely. As the relative balance of power between Mainland China and the U.S. changes, the relentless progression of Mainland China's modernization, and the loss of the memory that Taiwan owes a debt to the U.S. by the younger generations, Taiwan will eventually return to the motherland.

    Taiwan is an anachronism and a remnant of the Cold War. It's final status (e.g. signing a Hong Kong-style "one country, two systems" 50-year agreement) will most likely be determined in the next twenty to forty years. In twenty years time, there is a good chance that China's economy will be larger than the United States (e.g. the U.S. may lack the resources or will to maintain Taiwan's de facto independence). In forty years time, China will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of modern China. By then, China's economy will most likely be significantly larger than the U.S. and the technology gap would have almost disappeared.
     

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