I understand why Azeris behave the way they behave towards Armenians. From Baku's perspective, Armenia is a small and poor nation with limited capabilities. Azeris feel they can risk provoking Armenians knowing that Armenians are not interested in a full scale war and Yerevan does not possess any form of leverage over Baku. But provoking a nation like Russia? I still cannot make much sense out of what Turks did. What were they thinking in Ankara? How does what they did serve Turkish interests? How is it good for Turks? For that matter, how is it good for Turkmens? Be that as if may, I believe there were other players and reasons behind Ankara's decision to carryout this act of war against Russia.
Russia has become a victim of its success
In my opinion, what happened over the skies of Syria was a serious provocation not only by Ankara but also by the very head of NATO. I refuse to believe that Ankara would have given the order to shoot at the Russian warplane had Ankara not been given the green light by Washington. In case it was revealed that Turks carried-out this act without US knowledge or involvement, Moscow and Washington would need to come together and negotiate the terms of Ankara's punishment. Basing my opinion on Washington's reaction to the incident, it does not look like that's about to happen. As I said, I strongly suspect Washington was somehow involved in this criminal act. Why else would Washingtonian reptiles shamelessly make excuses for Ankara's criminal behavior? -
US State Department justifying Turkmen atrocity:
Pentagon backs Turkey’s version of events, blames ‘incursion’ of Russian jet:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/24/pentagon-backs-turkeys-version-accuses-russian-fig/
Krauthammer: Turkey Also Shot Down Any Chance of a U.S.-Russia Alliance:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corne...t-down-any-chance-us-russia-alliance-nr-staff
The arrogant empire has been playing a very dangerous game throughout the Middle East. The downing of the Russian warplane may actually be a sign of its growing desperation. It is widely recognized that Russia's historic military intervention in Syria has derailed both Western and Turkish plans. Washington and friends were noticeably furious when Moscow preempted their plan to invade Syria by militarily intervening in the country and ensuring the survival of the Iran-backed Assad government. In my opinion, the flagrant aggression against Russia's military - as well as the bombing of the Russian airliner over Egypt, the bombing of transmission towers in Ukraine that provided Russian Crimea with most of its electricity and the attack against Russian journalists in Syria - was ordered by Moscow’s enemies because things were going all too well for Russia. In other words, Western powers and their regional Turkic and Islamic allies were suffering serious setbacks as a result of Russian actions, something therefore had to be done.
Consider this: On the eve of the downing of the Russian warplane: Russian-European relations was thawing; Russian stocks were at their highest levels since 2008; there were serious talks taking place about settling the crisis in Syria and that talk was being initiated for the most part by Moscow. Moscow and Paris were discussing a joint military operations against ISIS; President Hollande of France was visiting Washington and was scheduled to visit Moscow; President Putin was visiting Jordan after he had just visited Iran; the Syrian army had been on a major offensive liberating territory in northern Syria; Russia's bombing campaign was decimating terrorist groups supported by Western powers, Turkey and Saudi Arabia; Russia’s military intervention in Syria had been registering serious progress across the board; President Putin had given a scathing speech at the G-20 summit in Turkey in which he publicly accused G-20 member states of supporting terrorism. Russia had the initiative and the momentum in recent months and was enjoying great success militarily in Syria. Needless to say, the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance and their regional allies did not like it one bit.
It now looks as if Russia's astounding performance on the international stage recently has begun to make its enemies resort to drastic measures. In a strong sense, Russia has become a victim of its success. By having Turks lash out, I believe they are tying to derail Russia's military campaign in Syria and destroy any hope Moscow had in winning European cooperation -
Paul Craig Roberts: Turkey Has Destroyed Russia’s Hope Of Western Cooperation:
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...on-of-western-cooperation-paul-craig-roberts/
Thomas Grove: Putin’s Strategy for Mideast Takes a Hit:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-strategy-for-mideast-takes-a-hit-1448399478
With Moscow registering success-after-success recently, the sudden attack against Russian forces in Syria was a very dangerous gambit. Because they did not want to dirty their hands, they got their willing barbarians to do the dirty work for them. Armenians in particular need to realize that despite their differences at times, there continues to be (and will continue to be for the foreseeable future) a very strong convergence of interests between reptiles in Washington and barbarians in Ankara -
Syrian Army Advances On Turkish Border After Ankara Warns Moscow To End Airstrikes Operation:
http://www.ibtimes.com/syrian-army-...er-ankara-warns-moscow-end-airstrikes-2195525
It was Russia that stabbed Turkey in the back:
http://www.dailysabah.com/columns/r...it-was-russia-that-stabbed-turkey-in-the-back
Top army general calls Russia ‘#1 threat’ to US:
https://www.rt.com/usa/320572-general-milley-russia-threat/
The Pentagon’s Military Doctrine: Russia and Vladimir Putin, America’s Greatest Threat:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-pe...adimir-putin-americas-greatest-threat/5486304
Is Washington seeking a war between Russia and Turkey for some reason? Are Turks aggressive enough, foolish enough or desperate enough to go along with such a thing? Aggression, fear, desperation and overconfidence leads to stupid and/or dangerous acts. What Ankara did was both stupid and dangerous, and it may not have been its first blow against Russia. The downing of the warplane was actually the second major blow Russia has suffered at the hands of Western-backed Turks recently. Just a few days before the incident in Syria, Ukrainian Tatars blew up a power transmission line that was providing most of Crimea's electricity. Although not as stunning or spectacular as what happened in Syria, that sabotage in Ukraine was also a major provocation against Russia. I would not be surprised if the two acts where somehow coordinated by Ankara.
While we can somehow speculate why Western powers may want Turks and Russians to fight, it's not as easy to speculate why Turks themselves would be looking for a fight with Russia. I can't think of a rational reason why they would want it. Western pressure or not, Ankara had the final say in the matter. As we know, Ankara has on more than one occasion gone against Western wishes in the past. Moreover, Turkey had a lot of vested interests inside Russia itself. Therefore, how does what Ankara did serve Turkish interests? How is what they did good for Turks? How is this good for Ankara's neo-Ottoman aspirations? I just don't understand it because it makes no sense... unless I remind myself that these people are bloodthirsty animals and there doesn't have to be rationale behind what they do. Nevertheless, I still find it difficult to believe that Turks would risk destroying their relations with Moscow and risk a war with Russia.
If the protection of Turkmens (or any another terror group Ankara was backing in Syria) was the reason why they took this drastic step, does Ankara really think that the plight of Turkmens in Syria will now improve as a result of what they did? If Ankara's concern was the protection of ISIS controlled oil fields in Syria and their oil deliveries to Turkey, do they really think that oil will now freely flow into Turkey? How is what they did going to help Ankara's neo-Ottoman designs in Syria? Russia's military has actually intensified its airstrikes against Turkmen populated areas in Syria. Russia's military has also intensified its airstrikes against ISIS controlled oil fields and tanker trucks delivering oil to Turkey. And Turkey's brave air force has been nowhere in sight. Turkish officials must have known all this was to happen. That is why I fail to see what Ankara was trying to accomplish by attacking the Russian military.
As said, on a strategic level as well as on a political level I cannot figure out what Ankara was trying to accomplish... unless I conclude that this was a senseless criminal act done out of anger and desperation - and of course Western encouragement. On a more tactical, operational level, however, I can see why Ankara may have thought it can get away with such an act. I would say five factors may have led Turkish officials into believing that they held a distinct advantage over Moscow -
Turkey's longstanding NATO membership and the unconditional support it receives from the Anglo-American-Jewish political order is making Turks feel invincible.
Turkey's NATO membership coupled with Russia's longstanding desire to develop good relations with Turkey may have convinced Ankara that Russia would never wage war against them.
Because Russia's economy is facing major Western sanctions and Russia's economy has shrunk recently as a result, Ankara may have calculated that Russia is in no shape to economically retaliate against Turkey.
Because Russia is now politically and militarily committed in Syria and Ukraine, Ankara may have calculated that Russia would not forcefully respond to the downing of one of its warplane.
Turkey's control over the Bosporus Strait, which is strategically vital to Russia militarily and economically, may have convinced Turkish officials that they held a distinct advantage over Moscow.
These factors - coupled with Ankara's neo-Ottoman dreams of grandeur - may have led Turkish officials into believing that Moscow would not retaliate in a strong manner. These may yet prove to be gross miscalculations by Ankara. While bilateral trade between Russia and Turkey in recent years have been over thirty billion dollars annually, this figure is derived mostly from Turkish energy purchases from Russia. Additionally, millions Russians in recent years were traveling to sea resorts in Turkey, spending billions of dollars annually. If it really wants to, Moscow can hurt Ankara severely by placing sanctions on the energy and tourism sectors of the Turkish economy alone. Relatively speaking, Russia is not a very developed nation, the Russian people are used to hard times and they are patriotic. If push comes to shove, Moscow can tighten its belt and curtail all trade with Turkey if only to punish Ankara. In the big picture, Turkey needs Russia more than Russia needs Turkey. Which is why what Ankara did makes no rational sense. Moreover, the Turkish economy is not the only thing Russia can target in a retaliation. There are a number of military actions Moscow can also take. But such measures will take time to bring into play.
Russia will retaliate at a time, manner and place of its choosing
What happened on November 24 has the potential to sabotage improving relations between Russia and Europe and derail Russia's successful aerial bombing campaign in Syria. American, French and German political observers also recognize that what happened was a blow to achieving a Russian-led peace settlement. If Moscow is not careful now, it faces losing its momentum and initiative, which is exactly what its enemies want to see happen. Moscow must therefore be very careful when formulating a response to Ankara's provocation. Moscow therefore cannot allow itself to get distracted from its strategic goal in Syria by taking the Western/Turkic bait. Thus far, I am very impressed with the kind of restraint, professionalism and discipline Moscow has shown.
If Moscow's enemies were hoping for an emotional outburst or an overreaction by Russia, then they erred for Moscow has not taken their bait. As difficult as it is to hold back one's fire during times like this, Moscow will hold its fire, at least for now because it cannot afford to get sucked into the trap set by its enemies. There is no doubt that Moscow will plot a retaliatory revenge but it will administer it at the time, place and manner of its choosing.
With that said, a serious retaliation by Moscow is in order and to be expected. Regardless of the circumstances of the downing of the warplane (it does not matter where the Russian aircraft was at the time it was attacked), Moscow simply cannot allow this flagrant act of aggression by Turkey to go unanswered - that is if Russia wants to remain respected as a major political player in the region. This incident has made President Putin look weak for the first time since the sinking of the Kursk fifteen years ago. This is first time in fifteen years President Putin looks like he is not in full control. President Putin and Russia have a precious reputation to protect. President Putin cannot afford this appearance in front of his vicious enemies. If Russia's enemies smell blood, they will double their efforts against Russian interests everywhere.
Let's recognize that Russia continues to have many vulnerabilities: Russia has nearly 13,000 miles of borderland to protect against 18 nations; although it is the world's largest country, Russia is only the tenth most populated nation on earth; there are nearly twenty million Muslims and Turkic peoples living inside Russia; Russia's enemies are far-and-wide and they are relentless in their effort to stunt Russia's growth and development; Russia military, although potent, is still relatively small and is still in the process of modernizing. Russia cannot afford the perception that it is weak. The most important thing Russia has today is its aura of strength and cunning. If this hype is shattered, by Turks of all people, Russia will suffer dire repercussions. Right now Russia looks weak and on the defensive. Russia must therefore react and react forcefully. Moscow cannot therefore allow Ankara's act to go unpunished. Banning Turkish strawberries is not enough. The punishment of Western-backed barbarians in Ankara has to come by way of economic, financial, political and military means. Moscow has to respond forcefully if it does not want to see similar incidents happening elsewhere.
Besides intensifying areal attacks in Syria against entities supported by Turkey, Russia's GRU or units of its special forces can provide Kurds - or any other willing group - with weapons to sink Turkish ships (military or otherwise), shoot down Turkish aircraft (military or otherwise), assassinate Turkish officials and blow up gas and oil pipelines that traverse Turkish territory. Moscow can also reinforce its military presence in Crimea, Armenia, Syria and the Black Sea; establish a no-fly zone over all of Syria and shoot down any Turkish warplane that come near Syrian airspace; start systematically flattening all Turkmen populated towns and villages in Syria; Moscow can also tear up the Kars agreement. There are many things Russia can do to teach Turks a bitter lesson without going to war. All Moscow needs is a little bit of imagination and some audacity.
Most importantly, Russian officials need to realize that playing the game by-the-book and sticking to intentional norms will henceforth be a serious liability for Moscow. Russians need to understand that they are fighting an enemy that is very desperate, ruthless and an enemy that plays dirty. Yes, President Putin is a master chess player, but the problem is that his opponents are criminals and anything can be expected from them. This latest incident was another case of President Putin playing smart chess and getting sucker punched in the process. Enough. Russians would do well to finally understand that when dealing with reptiles and barbarians, playing by the book (i.e. with adherence to international norms) can be a serious hindrance. The Russian Bear needs to also start playing dirty and ruthlessly because its enemies are dirty and ruthless. Russian officials therefore need to break open the old Soviet book of dirty trick and start relearning some of the things they have forgotten. Ultimately, Moscow needs to do everything it can now to exploit this situation to its fullest tactical and strategic potential - or else the Russian martyrs will have died in vain, or else Russia will be perceived as a paper tiger.
Russian officials knew very well that sending troops into Syria was fraught with serious risks. Moscow must now understand that it is in a fight against barbarians from the east and demons from the west, and there is no turning back. Unfortunately, more Russian servicemen will die before this nightmare is over. When I called the murdered Russian servicemen martyrs, I meant it literally because this is indeed a fight against evil.
Whether it wants to or not, whether it realizes it or not, the Russian nation is now in a historic fight. If Moscow backs down from this fight in Syria, the fight will eventually come to its doorstep in Russia. I am not calling for a declaration of war. We are not there yet. Let's not forget that politics is not a domestic dispute or a street fight. An emotional, maximalistic or extremist approach to political matters is a flawed approach that will inevitably have disastrous consequences. As I said, an emotional outburst or a drastic response was most probably what Moscow enemies were seeking. Moscow can't allow itself to be played into their hands. Having been caught in a treacherous ambushed by a major trade partner and a member of NATO, Moscow will have to carefully prepare itself for a meaningful retaliation. And when it does retaliate, it will retaliate at a time, manner and place of its choosing.
Russian officials only have themselves to blame
Russians only have themselves to blame for the mess they got themselves into. This is what happens when you get too close to Turks. For for past two decades Russia had been trying to win hearts and minds in Turkey with the hope that Ankara can be enticed to break away from NATO and enter Moscow's orbit. While Russia looked at Turkey (and Azerbaijan) as a regional competitor and a potential opponent (which is why Moscow has traditionally looked at Armenia as a valuable strategic asset), it was also hoping to lure Ankara (and Baku) into a partnership. Consequently, Moscow dangled a lot of carrots in front of Turks (Azeris). From a geopolitical and economic perspective, the effort made sense. But Russians were discounting one thing: They were dealing with Turks and Turks are notoriously backstabbing. Moscow overambitious and somewhat naive project to win Turks over has now quite literally been shot down in flames.
As I said, Russians only have themselves to blame. Russians were taught a painful lesson. Moscow should have known better than to trust Turks or Westerners. As I said earlier, Russia has become a victim of its success - as well as some cockiness.
I think the Russian military in Syria grew overconfident and thus dangerously complacent. The Russian warplane that was shot down was an old, Soviet era tactical bomber that was very vulnerable to enemy fighters. The Su-24 stands no chance against any of the fighters in NATO's arsenal. Only overconfidence, complacency and political naivete (not knowing Turks and Westerners well enough) can explain why Russians didn't provide their tactical bombers with aerial escorts or air-to-air missiles during their bombing runs, especially when they were operating so close to the Turkish border, especially after Turkey was demanding that Russians end their bombardments.
Russians thought that no Turk would dare shoot at them, especially after the Russia and NATO had reached a "deconflicting" agreement. Well, they did shoot. Now what? The Wolf caught the Bear off guard and took a shot. Now, in the eyes of the global public, the Russian Bear looks vulnerable all of a sudden. This is bad news for the Bear because once the Bear's natural enemies sense that he is weak, they will intensify their effort to kill him. It's simply the law of nature. In my opinion, the predicament the Bear is in right now is of its own doing because the Bear should have known better than to lower his guard in front of his rabid enemies. Moscow should have known better than to trust Turks, especially after seeing Azeri Turks shoot down that Armenian helicopter during a training flight almost exactly one year ago. Armenians were also caught acting a bit cocky back then and Azeri Turks, remaining true to their Turkic nature, took advantage of the opportunity they were presented with.
Russians need to wake-up and understand that when you play by the book against an enemy like Anglo-American-Jews and their Turkic/Islamic allies, you can end up seriously hurt if not dead. Ultimately, Moscow's desire to normalize relations with Ankara has gotten it to where it is today. Moscow should have learned from the Armenian experience. The reason why Moscow didn't learn from the Armenian experience was because Moscow thought it didn't have to - because Russia was a major power and no one would dare do such a thing to Russia. Well, that's the definition of miscalculation, overconfidence and arrogance, in my opinion. Moscow better now figure out a way to undo the damage this incident has caused on Russia's reputation.
Russia has finally been retaught a painful lesson in Turkish-style politics! Russia has finally been retaught a painful lesson in barbarian style politics! I therefore hope that Moscow has learned its lesson well, a lesson that in my opinion Moscow should have known already. Just like a wild beast cannot be tamed, so can't the Turk. The Turk will therefore always remain a Turk.
A blessing in disguise for Armenians
From an Armenian perspective, the downing of the Russian warplane was a blessing in disguise not only for Armenians but also for Russians. Finally, for their own good, Russians are seeing firsthand the unpredictable and barbaric nature of Turks, and it's about time. Although I am extremely upset at the lose of Russian lives, I must admit however that I am glad that Russian-Turkish relations have been dealt a severe blow, a blow it may not recover from for well into the foreseeable future. I had always maintained that despite their lucrative bilateral trade relations, Russians and Turks would clash sooner or later. It now seems that time may be sooner than I thought. Russians and Turks are beginning to kill each other in Syria. In my opinio0n, this was bound to happen because the Bear and the Wolf would never get along within the same ecosystem.
Despite their good relations during the past twenty somewhat years, the region's two natural competitors were destined to clash. It was not a mathematical probability but an inevitability. There is a historic opportunity here for Armenians. With the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance standing firmly behind it, The Incredible Turk has once again provoked the Russian Bear and has managed to draw first blood. After nearly twenty years of good relations, suddenly, a very serious divide has been created between Moscow and Ankara. Will Armenians have the political maturity and foresight to exploit this historic opportunity?
Until now, the Kremlin looked at Turkey as a potential trade partner as well as a geopolitical competitor, which is essentially why Russia sought to increase its trade relations with Turkey but also made sure to base troops and military hardware in Armenia. Moscow therefore was very nuanced when it came to Turkish matters. On one hand Moscow was very aware of the risks Turkey posed geopolitically, on the other hand Moscow wanted good relations with Ankara because Turkey is a major regional power and a base of Western operations. Consequently, Moscow sought to lure Turkey away from NATO. Simply put: Moscow tolerated Turkey for the sake of geopolitical prudence. Now, that is all gone. The game has changed quite suddenly, quite drastically. Moscow's overambitious and somewhat naive project vis-à-vis Turkey has now been, quite literally, shot down in flames. Now, Russians will begin looking at Turkey as a despicable enemy and a serious threat. Russians have finally gotten a little taste of what Armenians and Greeks have gone through for the past one thousands years. Russians have been reminded that the Turks can never be trusted. Will Armenians have the political maturity or the political foresight to exploit this historic opportunity?
Turkey's actions were a blatant act of war and a major humiliation for Russia, and something Russians will not forget or forgive. This is a historic opportunity not only for Armenia but also for Artsakh.
Having now ruined their relations with Russia, it is only natural that Ankara will begin seeking closer ties with their brethren in Baku. It is also natural that Moscow will begin putting more pressure on Baku as a result. Aliyev, the other sultan-wannabe in Baku is now in very deep shit. First, Aliyev was forced to helplessly watch his oil revenues slowly dry up. Now, Aliyev will be put in a position where he may be forced to choose between a desperate big brother and an angry powerful neighbor. To add insult to injury, the Russo-Iranian alliance just shot down Saudi Arabian plans to cut oil production to increase energy prices. This means Russia and Iran have tightened their belts (i.e. have figured out ways to survive low energy prices) and are actually trying to keep oil prices low (at least for now) to do some damage to Gulf Arab states - and Azerbaijan may very well become collateral damage -
Erdogan says Turkey has alternatives to Russian oil, gas:
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-alternatives-russian-oil-gas-erdogan-133646052.html
As cold war with Russia escalates, Turkey tilts to Baku:
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/cold-war-russia-escalates-turkey-tilts-baku-1739568059
Russia, Iran, Iraq Quash Reported Bid To Cut Oil Output:
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-iran-iraq-quash-saudi-bid-cut-oil-output-opec/27406246.html
What happened last week and the political fallout thereafter falls fully inline with Armenian interests. It's as if the geopolitical gods are watching over Armenia. But it's now up to Armenians to exploit the situation at hand. Armenians must become a presence in the Kremlin. Russians must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku continue being governed by Asiatic squatters with a pan-Turkic agenda. Moscow must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku have always been and will continue being exploited by their Anglo-American-Jewish masters. The Kremlin must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku will always be a hotbed of Islamic extremism. President Putin must be made to understand that as long as these Asiatic squatters remain at the helm in Ankara and Baku, Russia's vulnerable underbelly will continue being threatened by Western powers, pan-Turkic nationalists and Islamic extremists. For Moscow now, the Turk is no longer just a geopolitical competitor or a potential trade partner - but a vile enemy. Will Armenians have the political maturity and foresight to exploit this historic opportunity?
Right now we Armenians have very fertile ground in the Kremlin to sow Armenian interests. Isn't this what Armenians were dreaming about? Now that we have this historic opportunity, will we exploit it or will we, as always, continue wasting our time pathetically begging Western war criminals to recognize a genocide that was perpetrated by none-other-than one of their most important allies?
It was inevitable for Russians and Turks to come to blows
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow gradually embarked on an effort to establish good ties with Ankara. This project seemed to have been masterminded by a well respected Russian political scientist, Alexander Dugin. Dugin had envisioned the formation of an anti-American "Eurasian" alliance between Russians, Turks, Iranians and Arabs. In more recent years this ambitious agenda seemed to have morphed into a Russian agenda to bring Ankara into Moscow's orbit, which many observers suspected was Moscow's intent all along. Nevertheless, from a Russian perspective, warming of relations with Turkey made strategic sense, at least theoretically: Russia was trying to drive a wedge between NATO and NATO's second largest army, and from the looks of it, the effort seemed to be gradually succeeding: Annual bilateral trade between Russia and Turkey had grown to over $30 billion in recent years and it was hoped that it would grow to $100 billion in the near future, although there were inherent problems in the relationship. Russia was Turkey's largest energy provider and second largest trade partner. Moscow and Ankara were beginning to build the "Turk Stream" pipeline through which Russian natural gas would be delivered to Europe, although it was having inherent problems. Moscow had begun building Turkey's first nuclear power reactor, although it was having inherent problems. At times, Ankara signaled its willingness to entertain Moscow's ideas, but there continued to remain inherent problems between the two states. To summarize: Moscow thought - or hoped - that Turkey would be NATO's weak link and thus worked on trying to detach Ankara from the West through lucrative trade deals. Although Russian-Turkish ties were based on pragmatic geopolitical calculations and economic considerations, the relationship continued to be hampered by inherent problems.
Just like Damascus before it, Moscow had managed to establish what it had thought was a very good relationship with Ankara. Now, just like Damascus before it, Moscow has been stabbed in the back by Turks.
Russian-Turkish relations actually began souring when Moscow began to aggressively pursue its vital geostrategic interests: First in the south Caucasus, then in the Ukraine and more recently in Syria. Russia's geostrategic interests were constantly getting in the way of Turkey's geostrategic interests. For example: If Armenia's protection was strategically vital for Moscow, it was however a strategic problem for Ankara. If Crimea's annexation was strategically vital for Moscow, it was a strategic problem for Ankara. If Bashar Assad's Iran-backed Alawite government's preservation in Syria was strategically vital for Moscow, it was a strategic problem for Ankara...
In short: Moscow and Ankara simply could not be natural allies because they are destined to be natural competitors. Moscow and Ankara would not be able to maintain good relations for long periods, because their respective national interests are divergent and therefore had the inherent potential to clash. Because I have a good understanding of the nature of geopolitics and because I know Russians and Turks well, I never doubted, not even for one moment, that the two would eventually come to blows.
Despite their lucrative ties in recent years, the region's two main natural competitors were therefore destined to clash. The friendship between Moscow and Ankara was shallow and based on wishful thinking and false pretenses. The falling out Moscow has had with Ankara should have therefore been expected. After all, Russians and Turks are from two, vastly different civilizations. Ethnic Russians are mostly decedents of central European Vikings settlers that were Christianized about one thousand years ago and the Russian nation is the progeny of the Byzantine Empire. Muslim Turks, on the other hand, are the decedents of various Central Asian nomadic tribes that systematically invaded and settled in the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands during the past one thousand years. Christian Slavs and Muslim Turkic peoples have clashed throughout history: It's essentially a natural rivalry within the human ecology, one that is similar to that of bears and wolves (pun intended) competing over the same feeding territory. Russians and Turks have come to blows over a dozen times only during the past two hundred years - with Russia winning every time. In the 1990s we again saw this rivalry between Russians and Turks come to the surface and play out in the Caucasus and in the Balkans. More recently, we saw it take place within Crimea and Syria. The relationship between Moscow and Ankara could never get too warm because Turks today have an instinctual fear of the Russian Bear and Russian have an instinctual disdain towards Turks.
A Russian-Turkish clash was not a mathematical probability but a mathematical inevitability. The inevitable, however, has happened faster than any of us could possibly imagine. Now, it's a whole new game in the region and we Armenians, along with Kurds, Iranians and Alawites better be ready to play a constructive role.
I should remind the reader that I never feared closer Russian-Turkish relations because I always thought closer Russian-Turkish relations would mean more Russian leverage over Ankara. In a sense I was right, because Ankara seems to have lashed out at Moscow because it was seeing Russia having too much negative influence over on Turkish interests from the Crimea to Syria. In a sense I was wrong, because the influence Moscow had established over Ankara proved not enough in the end. But I never feared closer Russian-Turkish relations also because I knew Moscow would never betray its strategic position in Armenia for better ties with a regional Islamic power like Turkey. I'd like to remind the reader that even when Moscow had its very lucrative trade relations with Ankara during the past two decades, Moscow continued recognizing the Armenian Genocide; Russian officials continued appearing at the Armenian Genocide memorial in Yerevan; Moscow did not allow Artsakh to be invaded by Azerbaijan; and Moscow never stopped paying less attention to Armenia's border security with Turkey. Moscow's approach to regional matters has been firmly based on its national security needs, and Armenia is an integral part of Russia's national security and it will remain so for well into the foreseeable future - especially now that Moscow has all but abandoned its wish to have close relations with Ankara. To understand what Armenia meant to Russia even before this spat between Moscow and Ankara, let us take a quick look again at what prominent Russians have had to say about Russian-Armenian relations -
In an article appearing in Russia Today, Mikhail Aleksandrov, a political analyst working for the Institute of CIS made the following comment about Moscow's military presence inside Armenia -
“Armenian-Russian ties support a balance of forces. With its presence in the South Caucasus, Russia is creating a counterbalance to Turkey, Iran and preventing the West from getting access to the region, including military. If it wasn’t for Russia, the South Caucasus would be in a similar situation as we are observing in Syria or Libya today.”
In another article produced by Russia's Pravda, Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical Issues Konstantin Sivkov is quoted as saying -
“If Turkey attacks Armenia, it will be treated as an attack on Russia. Russia would fight on Armenia's side with all its might. If necessary, Russia could use nuclear weapons against Turkey, both tactical, and if need be, strategic. This is defined in the military doctrine of the Russian Federation. Armenia is fully protected with the Russian umbrella of both conventional forces as well as strategic nuclear forces.”
Alexsei Arbatov, the former deputy chairman of the Russia State Duma's Defense Committee defined Russian-Armenian relations with the following words -
“Armenia is our only classic military-political ally...Armenia will not survive without Russia, while, without Armenia, Russia will lose all its important positions in the Caucasus...Even though Armenia is a small country, it is our forepost in the South Caucasus. I would say that Armenia is more important to us than Israel is to the Americans.”
In describing what Russia's reaction would be to a possible invasion of Armenia by Turkey or Azerbaijan, Alexander Khramchikhin, Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis said -
“Russian military bases deployed in Gyumri and Yerevan guarantee Armenia’s security in case of war not only against Azerbaijan but also Turkey. If we attack Turkey, it will be war against NATO. However, we will never attack Turkey, it is clear. And if Turkey attacks Armenia and we have to save Armenia, it will be Russia’s and Armenia’s war against Turkey. NATO will not get involved in that war if only we do not start razing Turkey to the ground with strategic arms.”
This by the former Russian ambassador to Armenia, Vladimir Stupishin -
“In my view, the true settling of the Karabakh conflict suggests complete rejection by Azerbaijan of the primal Armenian lands. It is possible to resolve the problem of the refugees by providing them with opportunities in places where they live now. How come in almost every discussion on Karabakh the only refugees that are being consistently mentioned are the Azeri refugees? Why can’t the Armenians return to Baku, Gyandja, Sumgait, Artsvashen, Getashen, etc.?”
This by a Russian-Muslim political analyst, Ilqar Mammadov -
"When Azerbaijani officials, including the president, predict that Armenia will collapse as a state, they are mistaken. Nobody will let Armenia collapse. Even if only 100,000 people lived in Armenia, Russia would protect it as it regards Armenia as its outpost"
And this by Senior researcher of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky -
“Russia will never cede Armenia for improving its relations with Turkey. This is a matter of principle. There are things one can sacrifice, but there are things one cannot. The point is not so much that two million Armenians live in Russia and many of them are Russian citizens. For Armenia Russia’s steps must never be bad. The point is that even the Yeltsin Russia perfectly realized that it must not waive Armenia’s interests, not mentioning Putin, who clearly sees the national interests, at least, the clear ones. He is trying to extrapolate them for the future. I simply can’t imagine that Russia may yield Armenia – if Russia does this it will lose all of its positions in the Caucasus. Russia should understand one most important thing – there are partners and allied countries with whom one should keep up the sense of alliance and duty.”
Even when Russia was on its knees and in no shape to fight anyone, when Ankara began mobilizing its military on the border with Armenia with the intention of intervening on behalf of Azerbaijan during spring of 1992 when the war in Artsakh had suddenly began going very badly for Baku, Moscow mustered enough strength to threaten Turkey with a world war. Yes, Russia threatened Turks with a world war over a little Armenia that was no longer under its control and at a time when it was in no shape to fight anyone. Russia was ready to risk everything for our little homeland in the south Caucasus even when Russia itself was in chaos and in danger of falling apart. The following is an excerpt from a 1996 analysis by Dmitri Trenin -
“The purely military interest which Russia has had in the Caucasus appears to have receded in importance in comparison with the Imperial or Soviet periods. It is now essentially defensive in nature and precludes any large-scale strategic penetration, including the supply of military assistance, arms supplies, etc., to any third party. To prevent any potential Turkish opportunism at the time of the Soviet Union's disintegration, Marshal Shaposhnikov, then Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the CIS, warned of a "Third World War" if Turkey were to interfere militarily in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In March 1993, General Grachev, Russia's Defence Minister, made Russia's own military co-operation with Turkey conditional on Ankara's discontinuing its military assistance to Baku.”
If Russia was willing to go to war over Armenia in the 1990s, imagine what it would do today. Historically, regardless of the nature of their relationship with Turks, Russians have always looked at Armenia as a strategic fortress protecting Russia's vulnerable underbelly. Even the Jewish-led Bolsheviks, yes those that had mutilated some parts of Armenia in hopes of luring Turkey into the Soviet Union, recognized the overall strategic importance of preserving an Armenia state in the region. In fact, we have an Armenia today primarily because of this recognition by Soviet leaders. Simply put: Armenia's strategic importance and value to Russia will remain unchanged for as long as Westerners, Turks and Islamists have designs for the Caucasus. There will be no alternative scenarios or alternative geostrategic formulas for the Kremlin for the foreseeable future. Armenia's territorial integrity - as well as that of Artsakh's - will therefore be of vital strategic importance to Moscow for as long as Yerevan and Stepanakert remain firmly allied to Russia. Now that this incident has happened, Armenia's strategic value for Moscow just got an immense boost. I therefore would like to thank the sultan-wannabe in Ankara for the great favor he has done to Armenia.
While warm relations between Moscow and Ankara should not have scared Armenians, I much prefer HOSTILE Russo-Turkish relations. From an Armenian perspective, any degree of Russian control over Turkey was welcome, any degree of Russian-Turkish hostility is even more welcome.
Let's recognize that whatever Russia is doing today it is doing from a clear position of strength. Unlike in 1914, the Russian state today does not have any major sociopolitical issues within its borders. During the early 20th century, Russia was ripe for a major sociopolitical upheaval and Marxism was a growing force. Nothing of the sort exists today. Other than some Pussy Riot sluts acting all hysterical periodically; other than some angry gay activists throwing temper tantrums now-and-then; other than a suicidal Islamist fanatic blowing him or herself up from time-to-time, there is no major sociopolitical movement brewing inside the country that can even remotely pose a real threat to the Russian state. Unlike in 1914, Russian society is not in despair. If Russia did not collapse in 1990s, it certainly ain't going to do so now or anytime in the foreseeable future despite any Western sanctions. Unlike in 1914, Russia today is a massive nuclear superpower who's military capabilities rival that of the West's. Unlike in 1914, Europe and much of Eurasia (including Turkey) are very dependent on Russian energy and trade for survival. More importantly, unlike in 1914, the Russian nation has learned the lessons of the 20th century all too well. With a land stretching virtually from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with natural resources virtually inexhaustible and with a massive nuclear armed military that is unbeatable on any battlefield, whatever serious campaign, military or otherwise, the Russian nation decides to embark upon today will prove successful.
Make no mistake about it, fear of the Russian Bear is as prevalent in Ankara now as it has ever been. Yes, I said fear because their criminal act was made out of anger, frustration, desperation and fear. Turks felt the need to lash out from behind their NATO shield because Russia was destroying Ankara's neo-Ottoman plans from the Crimean peninsula all the way down to Syria. When the time is right, and if Moscow decides it can afford going to war with Turkey perhaps to establish a wider buffer zone around Russia's vulnerable underbelly and perhaps obtain direct access to warm water ports for their navy in Cilicia, there is nothing Turkey - or its friends - can do to stop the Bear.
After all is said and done, one thing remains crystal clear to me: If Western Armenia is to get liberated someday, it will only come by way of a Russian-Armenian force once again marching westward from the south Caucasus. The road to Western Armenia therefore starts in Eastern Armenia and the keys to Western Armenia are thus found in the Kremlin. We have been dreaming about the liberation of Western Armenia for decades. All of a sudden, it feels as if that dream can become a reality. Are we ready? Are we as a people ready to play a role if Russia does go to war against Turkey? The Russian army's lightning advance into the Armenian Highlands during the Caucasus Campaign of the First World War showed Armenians that the liberation of Western Armenia is a possibility, given that it is done under the right circumstances. The heroic campaign one hundred years ago encouraged us to prepare, at least mentally, for the next historic opportunity. That historic opportunity may have already come. What Ankara did on November 24 was an act of war and it may yet prove to be its death knell.
With Russian (and Iranian) power and influence gradually growing throughout Eurasia and the Middle East, Washingtonian reptiles and their Anatolian barbarians seem to be going for broke. As I have said in the past, Moscow plays chess, Washington plays poker. Western powers now are gambling it all and in doing so playing a very dangerous and a very ugly game.
They have now created volatile situations all along Russia's western and southern periphery. After Russia freed itself from Western control in 2000 and then lashed out at the Western in the summer of 2008, all this was bound to happen. Their anti-Russian effort goes back to their age-long geostrategic desire to stunt Russia's growth and development. They have similar sentiments towards China and Iran. I'd like to remind the reader again that for Western powers to maintain their unprecedented wealth and power, they have to remain at the top of the global food-chain. In other words, to survive, they have to preserve their position as the world's top predator. Western powers are therefore not ready to share any degree of power with Russia or China or Iran or anyone else for that matter. Consequently, we are now in uncharted territory once again. Once again, the West is recklessly setting fires because it knows the resulting inferno will not harm them. As long as the fires they set do not cause serious harm to them, they will continue setting fires.
The dire situation we are facing in the Middle East in particular was quite directly and quite recklessly created by the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance and their friends - for the sole purpose of global domination. But Russia and Iran have been ruining their plan every step of the way.
Speaking of Russian-Iranian relations: The amazing rescue operation for the surviving Russian pilot highlighted the flowering of Russian-Iranian alliance. If Russians put aside their western fetish (the desire to be part of the greater western world) and if Iranians put aside their Islamic nonsense, they may just come to the realization that they, Russians and Iranians, are in fact spiritual partners. I have said this before: Russia today is the manifestation of ancient Persia, just as the Western world today is the manifestation of ancient Rome. Besides which, there is also a significant amount of ancient Iranic blood flowing in Russian veins, especially throughout southern Russia. Nevertheless, I hope to see Russian-Iranian relations grow into a full blown strategic alliance with Armenia an inherent part of it. The recent cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in Syria is a little sampling of what Russia and Iran can achieve if they only put aside their petty differences and unite against their common enemy.
By taking a cheep shot at the Bear, barbarians in Ankara did us Armenians a great favor. The Russian Bear now see the Turk not merely as a regional competitor but as enemy and a danger to Russian interests. Armenians have been talking about liberating "Western Armenia" for decades. Well, now we have the operational template to build a long-term campaign upon. We dreamt about Western Armenia's liberation for decades. Now is the time we begin working on it. This is a historic opportunity for Armenia and for Artsakh. Russians must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku continue being governed by Asiatic squatters with a pan-Turkic agenda. Moscow must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku have always been and will continue being exploited by their Anglo-American-Jewish masters. Moscow must be made to understand that Ankara and Baku will always be a hotbed of Islamic extremism. Moscow must be made to understand that as long as these Asiatic squatters remain at the helm in Ankara and Baku, Russia's vulnerable underbelly will continue being threatened by Western powers, pan-Turkic nationalists and Islamic extremists.
Soviet leaders made a historic mistake back in 1921: This may be Moscow's chance to begin correcting the mistake. Moscow must understand that sooner-or-later Asia Minor has to be returned to its former inhabitants because for as long as a "Turkish" state exists in the region, there will be no peace - not for Russians, not for Armenians, not for Greeks, not for Iranians, not for Kurds, not for Alawites. I hope to see this historic spat between Russia and Turkey become the foundation upon which we will see a new Battle of Sarikamish take place in the foreseeable future - of course without the first one's Bolshevik ending.
Arevordi
December, 2015
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Russian Su-24 shotdown by Turkish air force surviving pilot murdered by Turkish tribesmen
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Turkey's shootdown of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer bomber along the Syrian border is dangerously exacerbating tensions not only in the Middle East but between Moscow and the West. A pair of Turkish-owned Lockheed Martin F-16C fighters shot down the Fencer with AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. Television footage of the incident from the state-run Anadolu News Agency shows that the two Russian pilots ejected, but it does not show if they survived crash.
While Ankara says that the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer violated its airspace, the Russians say that it did not. Moscow says it has proof that the strike aircraft was on the Syrian side of the border. “The Turkish General Staff said the downed foreign jet was issued 10 warnings in five minutes and it was shot down by two F-16s,” reads a statement from the office of the Turkish prime minister’s directorate general of press and information. “The warplane went down in Syria's northwestern Turkmen town of Bayirbucak near Turkey’s border within the framework of engagement rules.”
The Russian defense ministry confirmed that Turkish forces had downed the Su-24. “The Russian Su-24 aircraft was shot down on its way to the Hmeymim airbase in the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic by a Turkish F-16 fighter, “ the Russian defense ministry statement reads. “Analysis of the objective monitoring data definitely showed that there had not been any violation of the Turkish air space.”
Russian president Vladimir Putin responded to the incident with fury. “Today’s loss is a result of a stab in the back delivered by terrorists’ accomplices. There is no other way I can qualify what happened today,” Putin said during a meeting with Jordanian king Abdullah II in Sochi. “Our aircraft was shot down over Syrian territory by an air-to-air missile launched from a Turkish F-16 plane. It fell on Syrian territory, four kilometers from the Turkish border. When it was attacked in the air, it was flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters, one kilometer away from the Turkish territory.”
However, Ankara has released an image depicting a radar track that showed that the Russian aircraft briefly entered Turkish airspace. But Russia too has released its own evidence that its jet was over Syrian airspace when it was downed—but the photo depicts a Su-34 rather than a Fencer.
Putin stated that the downing of the Russian aircraft would not go unpunished—but it is not clear how Moscow will respond. “We will of course carefully analyze what has happened and today’s tragic event will have significant consequences for Russian-Turkish relations,” Putin said. “In any case, our plane and our pilots were in no way a threat to the Turkish Republic in any way. This is obvious.”
One immediate fallout is that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has cancelled his visit Turkey which was set for tomorrow. Russian has also summoned the Turkish defense attache in Moscow for urgent consultations according to the Russian defense ministry. Meanwhile, Turkey has requested an emergency meeting with other NATO members to bring them up to speed on the incident. U.S. officials have denied any involvement with the incident—but confirmed to the BBC that the Turkey did attempt to warn the Russian aircraft prior to shooting it down. U.S. forces are “working to establish exactly where the plane was when it was shot down,” according to U.S. Central Command spokesman Col Steve Warren per a BBC report.
Meanwhile, the BBC is reporting that one of the Russian pilots was found dead by Syrian rebels while the fate of the other remains unknown. Video evidence shows that both men came under fire from the rebel forces as they parachuted down—which is a violation of the Geneva Conventions and is a war crime. A Russian helicopter that was sent to rescue the downed pilots was also attacked.
If a conflict comes to a head, then there is plenty of room for serious military action. Both Russia and Turkey are significant military powers. The Turkish air force has more than 650 modern combat aircraft including F-16C/Ds, upgraded F-4 Phantoms and 737-based AWACS platforms. That force would be more than sufficient to wipe out the small Russian expeditionary force at Latakia because Moscow has mostly deployed strike aircraft and minimal air defenses. Turkey also has a significant navy--sixteen frigates, eight corvettes and dozen diesel-electric submarines, Ankara could try to cut off the Russian Black Sea fleet from the Mediterranean. It could also try to invoke NATO’s Article 5 clause—but that might not apply in this situation.
Russia, of course, is a very significant power. Russia could launch tit-for-tat attacks against Turkey’s air bases or naval ports—some examples might include Turkish air bases at Konya or Diyarbakir which are near the Syrian border. Those bases could have hosted the F-16s which attacked the Russian jets. Russia wouldn’t have to worry too much about destroying Turkish air defenses—the country mostly relies on older Hawk and Rapier missile batteries and American Patriot missile systems that are deployed to the region.
Make no mistake: a Russian air strike would massively escalate the situation—especially if deployed U.S. forces get involved. A more effective Russian response might simply be to cut off Turkey’s energy supplies. Russia supplies some sixty percent of Turkey’s natural gas supplies. Either way, the pressure is on Russian president Vladimir Putin to demonstrate that his incursion into Syria will pay off for his country--and that he is not a weakling who will supinely acquiesce to Turkey’s bold strike. The longer the Syria conflict drags on, the higher the stakes are becoming for all parties to it.
Source:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...now-fear-14433
