The Real Reason Russia is Warming Up to Pakistan

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by tarunraju, Oct 3, 2015.

  1. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    tl;dr: Pakistan will fulfill Russia's long cherished dream of access to the Indian Ocean region through friendly states, if it manages to pull off CPEC.

    Long story: The Partition of India, the sizes and shapes of the resulting nations, were a carefully crafted understanding between the British, Nehru, and Jinnah. The side-effect of the British Empire was a politically reunited Indian subcontinent, and that is something that spelled disaster to western interests. The west didn't want a second China. So it partitioned India in a way that makes India as large as possible, yet as benign as possible, to western geopolitical interests. One of the key considerations for this, was to prevent a vengeful India to be contiguous with the Soviet Union, and lend them access to the Indian Ocean region, as that would spell catastrophe for western sea lines of communication, oil routes, etc.

    So Kashmir was thrown up for grabs, the India-Pakistan war of 1947 over Kashmir happened, and while the Indian Army was in a reasonably good position to recover all of J&K from Pakistani occupation, it was Nehru who applied brakes.

    The British and Nehru go way back. Nehru's personal-life aside, he was groomed by the British to be an agent of chaos in Independent India, one that would keep it as benign as possible, so a western-dominated world order could take shape. One of the many deals of Nehru was to take British assistance in eliminating all his rivals in Congress, including Netaji Bose. Nehru reciprocated these little "favors" from the British by steering India to geopolitical disasters that would invariably benefit the west.

    Nehru, and his daughter Indira, every bit the a daughter of her father, who redid a Bose by having the Soviets kill Shastri; continued to let Pakistan keep PoK, and reshape its demographics the way they saw fit, a way that would make any future recovery by India impractical and impossible. PoK comes bang in the middle of India and the Central Asian Republics.

    Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) remained a stalemated region of no real value to anyone, until the Chinese became too heavy for the west in Central Asia. CPEC was drawn up, and suddenly Russia saw its quickest route to the Indian Ocean region take shape.

    India isn't going to let this lying down. We were grudgingly consoled to see PoK be the "useless pile of rocks" that Nehru sourgraped to his people with. CPEC, if allowed to be implemented in letter and spirit, will diminish India's geopolitical and economic influence in this region.

    The west isn't very pleased to see Beijing and Moscow having themselves a warp-drive to the IOR.

    In an effort to restore the status-quo it so painstakingly built, the west is beginning to throw its weight behind India. Modi emerged as the perfect guy for the job. He's someone Pakistan and Pakistanis are programmed to hate, that China is weary of, and that Russia doesn't go way back with (and hence has no favors/leverage with).

    The power-structures at the very top of the western world still have their own peaceful instruments of war (read: NGOs) to pass memos to. They want Modi around, they want him to feed the Indian growth story in a manner that makes it heavier in Asia, and have the ability to destabilize/derail CPEC.

    Russia, choked by western economic sanctions, is probably the first player to figure out the short-term implications of its IOR ambitions by hitching a ride from the Chinese and Pakistanis; made the carnal mistake of [allegedly] offering Pakistanis their Sukhoi 35-BM fighter jets. These are as good, if not better than, the 300+ Sukhoi 30-MKI jets Russia sold to India, and would blunt India's tactical edge and ability to achieve quick air-superiority, in short conflicts with Pakistan. Russia's move is ballsy because they're willing to let it jeopardize the 200+ pending (unpaid) orders for more Su-30MKI jets, and a potential 40+ MiG-29K jets for India's two new aircraft carriers.

    This shows that Putin has made up his mind. He wants access to IOR, and is willing to eat grass getting there.

    Discuss.
     
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  3. Voldemort

    Voldemort Senior Member Senior Member

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    But they have clearly stated there wasnt any discussion on Su-35.
     
  4. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

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    There is little doubt that Russia is throwing its lot in with China. How much that is going to impact relations with India remains to be seen. A lot of things need to play out before we can make a definitive inference regarding this situation in my opinion.

    Su-35 for Pak or not, for India its the clearest signal yet, if we don't push for indegenization ASAP, we are screwed. From the IAF chief's interview though, they are still fixated on the French bird, even if they have been forced into 120 odd Tejas.
     
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  5. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Nope he's just trying to make deals as much as he can without upsetting india.
     
  6. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    Why not warm up to Iran and get the same thing without upsetting India.
     
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  7. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

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    China factor? They'd always have must greater control over the Pakis than the Iranians.
     
  8. punjab47

    punjab47 महाबलामहावीर्यामहासत्यपराक्रमासर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट Banned

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    That's why I doubt the Pakistani deal because Iran wants 250 su30sm & 150 j10.

    There's no point of courting Pakistan when Iran is there in Persian Gulf & also friendly with India.

    It seems more case of alcohol being banned in al bakistan but freely available everywhere. I.e :bs:
     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    • As India makes rapid strides towards indigenization, Russia will find it hard to sell Russian arms to India. Pakistan, on the other hand, is likely to need foreign weapons for some time to come.
    • Pakistan will always have access to some type of Russian origin weapons, if not Russian weapons, and that is via PRC. Therefore, Russia might step in and offer direct weapons, rather than have PRC do it for them.
    • Russia does not see Pakistan as a long term ally. For Russia, it is all about being able to sell weapons to Pakistan without upsetting India. This is where I second @Rowdy.
    • It is true that a united Indian subcontinent would have had the potential of a vengeful counteraction against the British. Partition of India was in the interests of the British.
    • Access to Central Asia is something India needs to work hard on. To that effect, liberating PoK and GB from Pakistan should be India's goal. Russia might actually need access to the Indian Ocean, although it is unclear how important this access is to Russia. Assuming it is important, India should try to liberate PoK and GB, thus turning the de jure Indo-Afghan border along Wakhan valley into a de facto border as well. Thus, Tajikistan would be a day's horse ride away from India.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2015
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  10. Bangalibaba

    Bangalibaba Regular Member

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    I'm a very small fry in the midst of shifus here, but still put my 2 cents on the table. I think Doval & Modi dispensation is awaiting 2016 US elections. In my memory serves well, Doval is the first NSA to say on record, that India has land borders with 7 countries and not 6.He meant Afghanistan to be a neighbor as POK is unfinished business and an intergral part of Indian Territory. Altho' Maimoona Begum should have scored the deal while repatriating ~94K POW in 1972,I think Doval will try to accede POK by every possible means.But for that I truly believe they would need another term in 2019. Moreover,if we can do massive infrstructure buliding and better the public life in this side of J&K (All of Jammu,Kashmir Valley as well Ladakh) POK & especially GB people themselves would want to join back Indian union. Also please note,GB is still a Shia majority state, even though Pakistan is trying to settle Punjabi Sunnis there,Pakistan authorities have not received a great success.
    Would love to have you, Shifus view. Thus I conclude my 2 cents.. :)
     
  11. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Would'nt North South corridor (Chhabahar) achieve the same although maybe not so efficiently.
     
  12. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    • Getting GB and PoK back will also cut off the physical connection between PRC and Pakistan.
    • Iran route is longer and adds another country to the list of countries we have to cover to reach Central Asia, but transit to Russia's Astrakhan is easier via Iran, and India is already setting up a logistics centre there.
     
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  13. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    I never understand this fetish for central Asian countries. They are rugged countries with no infrastructure or economic power. Anything one wants to buy from there can be bought cheaply from rest of the world. That is why I don't see any economic value even in all the Chinese investments in Pak.

    Ofcourse, it does not harm if we have link with central asia but what are the benefits- tactical or military other than closing the Pak-Sino border?
     
  14. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Trade. Central Asia offers a good market for Indian goods. On top of that, it can be a transit for Indian goods all the way to Russia, while India can import oil, gas, and uranium from Russia and Kazakhstan, instead of having to have them shipped along sail routes potentially vulnerable to PLAAN blockade.
     
  15. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    I think the world will move beyond oil and gas very soon in the future. Same goes for production, which would probably go local with development in 3d printing, which is happening really fast. Here the production will be controlled by people who write software to produce new goods. I think how we exports things will change in the next two decades. Also with the current PLAAF capabilities, I do not think they can block India in near future.

    As far as Uranium is concerned, it is not such a big shipment for blockade. India can import enough Uranium for 5-10 years in a very short period of time.

    India should definitely not sit idle but value of Central Asia is too much exaggerated.
     
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  16. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    With increasing western pressure from western countries like USA and its lackeys it is pushing Russian more towards China... Russia understands it but there is hardly any other options left for it... It is to be remembered that Russia is not USSR and will need support from either China or any big emerging economic power to sustain itself economically.... Russia does not have anything worthwhile to mention except Oil & military hardware...

    Russia also sees India slowly moving away from its hold of influence and some sort of alliance to check the Chinese in the IOR and Asia pacific region... India have to get the western tech [ through Israel or directly]...

    India in its part has it own ambition to get its own rightful place in the world order... India needs western support to grow economically and get the necessary technology to check the Chinese rising belligerence, here Russia can not come to India support for obvious reasons...

    It is most important to see how Indian leadership manage the Russian insecurity and play diplomatically to prevent major Russian arms sales to Pakistan for next 5 to 6 years...

    The present Indian government have to come down heavily on the import lobby and start a five year planning for major indigenization of military hardware...
     
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  17. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Guys, do you seriously think Russia can do business with Pak? The economics do not suggest so.

    Pakistan defence budget this year was around 8 billion $. I am not sure how much it can dedicate to procurement of fancy aircrafts. Even buying 20 Su-35 will take away 1 billion $ away if per piece cost of Su-35 is ~50million$ (the actual cost will be much higher for Pak). So there seem no way Pak can get enough number of such fighters to pose a problem to India.

    Now coming to Russia. They do not have enough money to fund Pak armament. They would prefer to sell their stuff and Pak cannot afford big acquisitions.

    But yes, they might warm up to each other. The simple reason being that Russia too wants to diversify its buyers, just like any other self-promoting nation. So, Pak might get one or two small stuff here and there but nothing substantial. I do not think Russia can move much away from India otherwise it would loose whatever little footprint it has on Indian acquisitions, specially in the current precarious conditions for Russia with international sanctions. India should take as much benefit as possible from the current developments and speed up PAKFA and other acquisitions.
     
  18. DingDong

    DingDong Senior Member Senior Member

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    Two sentences:

    1. India is going to destroy CPEC.
    2. Russia has no reason to be in the IOR. IOR is India's ocean.
     
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  19. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    It is very famous misconception that someone else is pushing Russian towards China.

    Most likely its a propaganda, spread by Russian lackeys.

    -------------------------------------------

    Even India had better relations with Russia and then also they offered PAK-FA project partnership to China first.

    Correct me, if I am not wrong.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2015
  20. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    • The Central Asian market is well supplied by Chinese products. Where do Indian products stand in comparison?
    • I do not foresee any significant departure from fossil fuels in the next half a century.
    • Nuclear power will continue to gain importance.

    Russia will never give aid to Pakistan. Russia is also not going to subsidize its products to Pakistan. Russia simply wants to diversify its market. Russia also cannot do as much business with Pakistan because Pakistan's economy is in no position to make any useful financial sense to Russia.

    In the foreseeable future, be it defence or otherwise, PRC will be the main partner of Russia, followed by India. I don't want to place EU ahead of India as far as trade with Russia is concerned because most of the European countries are not independent in the true sense of the word, and hence, their foreign policy is unpredictable.
     
  21. punjab47

    punjab47 महाबलामहावीर्यामहासत्यपराक्रमासर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट Banned

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    One the main strategic geo political reason for c Asia is it is a land bridge between the most powerful non American areas i.e e Asia, Bharat, Rus, Eu.

    It is an area where America has largely failed in terms of destabilization & power projection. It provides a diplomatic weapon against the Americans where they have to tone down their aggressive posture & rhetoric.

    They control the seas, they have 19 acs Rus chin Bharat combined have 5 I think which are of smaller size & potency.

    I.e it's 'cheaper' for these countries to develop silk road route, than it is to compete with America in number of carrier battle groups.

    Also central Asia was originally Hindu, while water is water. You understand rest,
     
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