The marriage squeeze in India and China

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Rowdy, Apr 20, 2015.

  1. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    KHAPs are informal local councils in north-western India. They meet to lay down the law on questions of marriage and caste, and are among India’s most unflinchingly conservative institutions. They have banned marriage between people of different castes, restricted it between people from the same village and stand accused of ordering honour killings to enforce their rulings, which have no legal force. India’s Supreme Court once called for khaps to be “ruthlessly stamped out”. In April 2014, however, the Satrol khap, the largest in Haryana, one of India’s richest states, relaxed its ban on inter-caste marriage and made it easier for villagers to marry among their neighbours. “This will bring revolutionary change to Haryana,” said Inder Singh, president of the khap.

    The cause of the decision, he admitted, was “the declining male-female sex ratio in the state”. After years of sex-selective abortions in favour of boys, Haryana has India’s most distorted sex ratio: 114 males of all ages for every 100 females. In their search for brides, young men are increasingly looking out of caste, out of district and out of state. “This is the only way out to keep our old traditions alive,” said Mr Singh. “Instead of getting a bride from outside the state who takes time to adjust, we preferred to prune the jurisdiction of prohibited areas.”

    The revision of 500 years of custom by its conservative guardians symbolises a profound change not just in India. Usually dubbed the “marriage squeeze”, the change refers both to the fact of having too many men chasing too few brides and the consequence of it in countries where marriage has always been nearly universal. Sex selection at birth is common in China and India. The flight from marriage—with women marrying later, or not at all—is long established in Japan and South Korea. But until recently, Asia’s twin giants have not felt the effects of sexual imbalance in marriage. Now they are.

    The marriage squeeze is likely to last for decades, getting worse before it gets better. It will take the two countries with their combined population of 2.6 billion—a third of humanity—into uncharted territory. Marriage has always been a necessary part of belonging to society in India and China. No one really knows how these countries will react if marriage is no longer universal. But there may be damaging consequences. In every society, large numbers of young men, unmarried and away from their families, are associated with abnormal levels of crime and violence.

    Missing girls, missing brides
    The roots of the current squeeze go back a generation. Sex-selective abortions became common in China in the 1990s as a result of the country’s strict (now somewhat laxer) one-child-per-couple policy and a traditional preference for sons. A few years later they became increasingly common in India, also because of a preference for sons and helped by the growing availability of prenatal tests to determine sex. In 2010-15, according to the UN Population Division, China’s sex ratio at birth was 116 boys to 100 girls; in India the figure was 111. Though these ratios have fallen a little since their peaks, they are still far above the natural rate, which is 105 to 100.

    As a result, enormous numbers of girls and women are “missing”—absent, that is, compared with what would have happened if there had not been sex selection. If China had had a normal sex ratio at birth, according to a report in 2012 by the UN Population Fund it would have had 721m girls and women in 2010. In fact it had only 655m—a difference of 66m, or 10% of the female population. India’s ratio is not quite so bad. Had it been normal, the country would have had 43m more women, or 7% more, than it actually did. Other countries practise sex selection at birth, but Asia’s giants overshadow all others. Together they account for 109m of the 117m “missing” girls and women globally in 2010. Calculations by Christophe Guilmoto of the Institute of Development Research, a think-tank in Paris, show that marriage patterns in India and China were still normal in 2010. But they will become badly distorted by 2020 (see chart).


    “Missing women” are only part of the explanation. Countries with normal sex ratios can experience a marriage squeeze if their fertility rates are falling fast. Fertility is important, because men tend to marry women a few years younger than themselves. In India the average age of marriage for men is 26; for women, it is 22. This means that when a country’s fertility is falling, the cohort of women in their early 20s will be slightly smaller (or will be rising more slowly) than the cohort of men they are most likely to marry—those in their late 20s (this is because a few years will have gone by and the falling fertility rate will have reduced the numbers of those born later). This may not sound like a big deal. But in fact between 2000 and 2010 the number of Indian men aged 25-29 rose by 9.2m. The number of Indian women aged 20-24 (their most likely partners) rose by only 7.6m.

    Even if India’s sex ratio at birth were to return to normal and stay there, by 2050 the country would still have 30% more single men hoping to marry than single women. This is explained by a rapid decline in India’s fertility rate. But in China, where fertility has been low for years, the more gradual decline in fertility still means there will be 30% more single men than women in 2055, though the distortion declines after that. A decline in fertility usually benefits developing countries by providing a “demographic dividend” (a bulge of working-age adults compared with the numbers of dependent children or grandparents). But it does have the drawback of amplifying the marriage squeeze.

    The problem is further accentuated by a so-called “queuing effect”. The length of a queue is determined by how many people join it, how many leave, and how long queuers are prepared to wait. In the same way, marriage numbers are a result of how many people reach marriageable age (the joiners); how many get married (the leavers) and how long people are willing to wait. In India and China, marriage remains the norm, so men keep trying to tie the knot for years.

    Hence, a marriage queue in India and China builds up. At stage one, a cohort of women reaches marriageable age (say, 20-24); they marry among the cohort of men aged 25-29. But there are slightly more men than women, so some members of the male cohort remain on the shelf. Later, two new cohorts reach marriageable age. This time, the men left over from the previous round (who are now in their early thirties) are still looking for wives and compete with the cohort of younger men. The women choose husbands from among this larger group. So after the second round even more men are left on the shelf. And so on. A backlog of unmarried men starts to pile up. Just as you need only a small imbalance between the number of people joining a queue and the number leaving it to produce a long, slow-moving line, so in marriage, a small difference in the adult sex ratio can produce huge numbers of bachelors. They are called guanggun (bare branches) in China, malang (aloof and loopy)in Haryana and chhara (a derogatory term for unmarried men) in Punjab.

    To make matters worse (for men, anyway), in rich Asian countries women are turning their backs on marriage altogether. Women with university degrees are more likely to marry late, or not at all, than those with primary education. Women who live in cities and have jobs are marrying later, or less, than rural women or those who work at home. Everywhere, female marriage rates are declining and the age of marriage is rising. In China, as women get richer and better educated, they are starting to repeat the behaviour of their Japanese and Korean sisters, pushing up the number of unmarried men.

    Lucky man
    The combination of these factors in India and China will make their marriage squeeze especially acute and persistent—much more severe than it would have been in the case of distorted sex ratios alone. Mr Guilmoto calculates that, in China, for every 100 single women expected to marry in 2050-54 there could be as many as 186 single men (see chart); in India in 2060-64 the peak could be higher: 191 men for each 100 women. This assumes the sex ratio at birth does not change. But even if the ratio were to return to normal in 2020 (which is unlikely), the marriage squeeze would still be severe, peaking at 160 in China in 2030, and at 164 in India 20 years later.

    A marriage squeeze of this intensity would be unknown in China and India and extraordinarily rare anywhere in history. America’s Wild West (or the fracking fields of present-day North Dakota) are rare examples of a society with huge numbers of excess men.

    There may be positive side effects: a shortage of brides in India is causing dowry prices to fall in some areas, for instance. Overall, though, the impact is likely to be negative. A study by Lena Edlund of Columbia University and others found that in 1988-2004, a one-point rise in the sex ratio in China raised rates of violent crime and theft by six to seven points. The abduction of women for sale as brides is becoming more common. The imbalance is fuelling demand for prostitution.

    There are few obvious remedies. If girls married earlier, it would increase marriage rates but would impede the progress being made by women in employment and education. Brides can be found in nearby countries. There are villages in China’s south-western provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou where many of the young women are Vietnamese or Burmese because local girls have gone to work in cities. A state-run newspaper, Beijing News, recently offered advice about the ten best places for Chinese men to find brides abroad (Ukraine, apparently, is promising). But this merely transfers the problem from one place to another. China and India are so vast that no marriage migration could ever be big enough to satisfy demand.

    [​IMG]

    Bare branches on the family tree
    If—a big if—marriage pairing were to become more symmetrical (ie, college graduates marry one another, and so on), then at least the burden of non-marriage would be spread more evenly. In India and China, women tend to “marry up”—illiterate women marry men with primary education; primary-school women marry men with secondary education; and so on. As a result, men at the bottom of the pyramid, and women at the apex, find it especially hard to find spouses. So the marriage squeeze does not affect everyone equally. It disproportionately hits illiterate men and does not do much to help graduate women (shengnu, or leftovers, as they are called in China).

    But overall, changing the patterns of marriage would merely moderate a squeeze which is likely to continue for decades. China has eased its one-child policy, and the sex ratio at birth has fallen. But because the marriage squeeze is the product of other factors, too, it will continue even were the sex ratio at birth to return to normal. If that happened, Mr Guilmoto reckons, over 21% of Chinese men would still be unmarried at 50 in 2070, while in India the figure would be almost 15%. Three generations after sex-selective abortions began, their impact will still be felt.

    India and China will change hugely as they become wealthier and better educated in coming decades. But few changes will be as momentous and persistent as the one now beginning: universal marriage will become a thing of the past.

    The marriage squeeze in India and China: Bare branches, redundant males | The Economist

    Come to europe and do ghar vaapisi of a few babes :drool: @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @Mad Indian @Rashna @maomao @Tshering22 and others.
     
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  3. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    Few babes isn't gonna solve the issue. The last laugh is gonna be had by women..... women rule this world and the sooner men realize it the better for them. :taunt::rofl:

     
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  4. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    How women's education is going to affect men's prospects of getting married.


    Indian women will struggle to find the right match by 2050


    LONDON: Nearly 1 in every 10 women in India will fail to find an eligible partner by 2050, thanks to being educated in a university. An interesting study led by the University of Oxford says that a significant proportion of men in India currently marry women less educated than themselves.

    The research theorizes that if public attitudes do not change, whereby university-educated or college-educated men are more desirable spouses than women similarly educated, by 2050 there will be a 'mis-match' in numbers of 'suitable' men and women.
    Using this premise, researchers' model suggests the proportion of never-married women aged 45-49 will go up from 0.07% in 2010 to nearly 9% by 2050, with the most significant increase experienced by university-educated women.

    There would also be a rise in the percentage of unmarried men, particularly amongst those with little education. Existing population projection data (from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna Institute of Demography) shows that by 2050 there will be around 92 men for every 100 women aged 25-29 with a university education, as compared with 151 men for every 100 women from the same age group educated at university in 2010.

    The paper suggests that if projected marriage patterns were solely focused on the age-sex structure of the future population in India, men rather than women would have a problem finding suitable marriage partners by 2050. However, once education is factored in, the pool of suitable marriage partners for women shrinks -- if current eligibility criteria apply to future populations.
    For men, the percentage unmarried at the age of 50 also rises from 1.4% in 2010 to 5% by the age of 50, with the least educated likely to have the most trouble finding a wife.

    "Marriage is an almost universal institution for men and women in India today. But by 2050, women could find it more difficult to find an eligible partner, particularly if they have been educated at university or college level. The fact that the number of women with higher education is growing is a success story for India," said lead author Ridhi Kashyap whose study has been published in the journal, Demography.

    Kashyap added "This research is suggesting that in India, families might need to revise their views on the suitability of potential marriage partners".

    The study involved researchers from the University of Oxford; the Center for Demographic Studies, Barcelona and Minnesota Population Center, USA.

    They harmonised existing data on current marriage patterns by age and education and applied these to population projections on the likely age, sex and educational attainment of the population in India by 2050 to develop scenarios for future marriage patterns.

    There is huge social pressure in India for men and women to get married. The researchers analysed data from the National Family Health Survey for India (2005-06) and the India Socio-Economic Survey (1999, 2004) that show less than one per cent (0.6%) of all women and 1.2% of all men remain unmarried by the age of 50.

    More than half (54.4%) of the marriages in which the groom went to university involved brides schooled to primary or secondary level. Just over one quarter (26.6%) of women who had completed university 'married down', choosing less educated spouses, with most female graduates (73.4%) having husbands of a similar educational background. The (mean) average age for getting married the first time was just under 25 for men and just under 20 for women, with men around four years older, on average, than their wives, according to the data.

    Previous academic literature has suggested that men in India could be short of potential wives mid-century due to the skewed sex ratios at birth in India's population. This is the first time that academic research has also taken into account the effect of education, as well as expected changes in the age-sex structure for future marriage patterns in India.

    Ms Kashyap said "In contrast to the East and Southeast Asian experience where non-marriage has become much more common, marriage in India remains universal. Traditional roles and expectations for women and men in India persist despite the significant social and demographic changes witnessed in recent years. This research shows that the rigid social structure still experienced in India will need to adapt".

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...get&utm_medium=Int_Ref&utm_campaign=TOI_AShow
     
  5. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Not gonna happen. with 90% arranged marriages it will be really rare
     
  6. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Who wants to solve the issue .... :lol: .... As long as I get to play Kanhaiya in Europe :love:
     
  7. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    lol.This is in 2050, your kids might be affected by this or maybe your grandkids. How do you know it won't happen, we never thought marriage would become such a big issue in India and it is already difficult to find the right person. With women's education gaining popularity by 2050 we should be seeing 100% literate women and in combination with the skewed sex ratio this scenario could very well come true.

     
  8. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    We are talking about the general population not rowdy boyz in europe. :laugh: I really find it funny when i read stories of these desperate haryana boys who now have to go hunting for a girl to get married to. Karma is a "girl", for sure. :rofl:

     
  9. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Another reason for ghar wapsi!
     
    Mad Indian, parijataka and DingDong like this.
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    This may become a big issue before 2050 ?
     
  11. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    There is a strong assumption based on expected number of women who wants to marry. If Indian women go the Japanese or Korean way, then there would be such a huge shortfall.

    So if everything stays the same i.e. 111 boys to 100 girls and roughly all of them marry(supposing Indian women won't run away from marriage) then the marriage stats would be the same.
     
  12. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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  13. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  14. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Except Feminism is ruining everything.
    Using womens right as a Trojan horse they are killing society. And most men are too dumb to see it.
    Exibit one: and watch the first 8 mins or so
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRKmyzen0Vw
    Then you have that mychoice (yuck)
     
  15. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    :lol: :lol: See the above graph the Natural ratio is 105 and India has 109 and it is falling continuously but magically WHITE bastard's forecast-ed it will increase to 180 why only 180 make it 700.

    Inside information,'coz of Chinese 1 child policy parents won't submit data if first child is a Girl,so they are called them as Ghost women (I condemn this few women are ghosts):p

    The great one and only White men aka Savior of Brown&Asian women won't give facts but forecast pollution/wommin discrimination/rapes and what not

    Fuk these #Presstitutes

    Sorry for many curse words
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2015
  16. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Umm what he says is that over the decades , men will accumulate and the net will be 186 men per 100 single women. This logic is not 100% secure but has some merit.
     
  17. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Actually, I think you are being fed misinformation reg Japanese girls. Its the boys and men there who dont want to get married or want to have a relationship with women. If that happens, then there will be plenty of scarcity for men in India:hmm:

    Herbivore men - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
  18. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Lets hope that happens. Doesn't seem like it would happen in near future.
     

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