The looming confrontation over Arunachal

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Everyone is desperate to get their hands on Pakistan's gwadar port, NATO, America, china and India. Now its just a battle to see who actually wins, by the looks of it, Pakistan seems to be on a constant destabilization process. A free Sindh and Baluchistan will spoil china's dreams. China will do all they can to make Pakistan stable
They are failing in whatever they try to do they don't stand a chance against USA. US will give they a hard kick out the door.
 

Rebelkid

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They are failing in whatever they try to do they don't stand a chance against USA. US will give they a hard kick out the door.
true, Chinese have a massive submarine force which is quiet threatening considering the fact, if u remember the incident where a Chinese sub emerged right under the nose of a U.S fleet and they did not even know about it.. Where the fail in tech they will make up in sheer numbers..
 

sesha_maruthi27

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INDIA must focus on building a strong and huge enough guerrilla force by recruiting the Tibetians who are presently living in TIBET(the part occupied by CHINA) and provide them with arms and ammunition to fight against those chinese and get the part of KASHMIR what the chinese ssay AKSAI CHIN and in the course also give the Tibetians there TIBET.
 

sesha_maruthi27

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Whether pakistan breaks down or china helps to stabilize pakistan, INDIA may emerge to be profited by receiving the technology from ISRAEL, RUSSIA and U.S.
 
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true, Chinese have a massive submarine force which is quiet threatening considering the fact, if u remember the incident where a Chinese sub emerged right under the nose of a U.S fleet and they did not even know about it.. Where the fail in tech they will make up in sheer numbers..
I don't compeletly believe that because it was during a US congressional hearing to get more funding for the navy, and fear is the best motivator for funding. Chinese submarines 50% are more than 30 years old and they are just starting to build newer nuclear subs but their numbers are deceiving ,Chinese subs are far from stealthy.
 

Rebelkid

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INDIA must focus on building a strong and huge enough guerrilla force by recruiting the Tibetians who are presently living in TIBET(the part occupied by CHINA) and provide them with arms and ammunition to fight against those chinese and get the part of KASHMIR what the chinese ssay AKSAI CHIN and in the course also give the Tibetians there TIBET.
That only reliable when the opposing govt. is a democracy if you arm Tibetians am sure they will have the courage to fight, but they will get slaughtered by the PLA. When it comes to putting down unrest Chinese have absolutely no remorse. It would be really unwise to give any further suffering to the tibetians
 

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War games to check China


The turbulence that is roiling the waters off China's east and northeastern shores has far-reaching implications. Two messages among those emitted by the just concluded first phase of US-ROK joint military exercises mandate attention namely: US strategy towards China is one of cooperation and not capitulation, and the status quo that had begun to settle in the waters of the Yellow, East and South China Seas has changed.
The military exercises have reinforced apprehensions in Beijing that the US has decided to re-enter the Asia-Pacific region and maintain a dominant presence there. By engaging in these joint military exercises Washington has put the brakes on Beijing's steady and persistent efforts to expand the definition of areas of its 'core interest' and bring these within China's suzerain.
Washington, by participating in the military exercise with South Korea at this time of rising tension in North East Asia and appreciably raising the force-strength of the exercise, has also reinforced its commitment to an ally in the Asia-Pacific region and a neighbour of China. The action has given comfort to other US allies in the region as well as those wary of China's ambitions and dispelled notions that US interest in the region was weakening or that commitments elsewhere had compelled the US to reduce force deployments in the Asia-Pacific.
Of particular interest was the quiet announcement — implicitly emphasising the US intention to remain the dominant force in the region — that during the next round of exercises scheduled for September, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington would be deployed in the Yellow Sea. The announcement appeared to reverse an earlier decision to keep USS George Washington away from the Yellow Sea due to China's objections.
China has predictably taken serious note of the US action. The unprecedented, large-scale US-ROK joint military exercise 'Invincible Spirit', where elements of Japan's Self-Defence Forces participated, has seen the deployment of firepower on such a massive scale for the first time in 34 years in the region. The 97,000-tonne nuclear-powered USS George Washington has sailed in these waters for the first time. It was also the first time that the F-22 Raptor Stealth aircraft of the US Air Force flew over Korean skies. Chinese military analysts pointed out that the F-22 flies for long stretches at supersonic speeds and is capable of destroying North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's office, nuclear facilities, missile bases and other military targets in 40-60 minutes. The F-22 could just as easily, they pointed out, target China.
The stated objective of the joint military exercises was to demonstrate US strength to North Korea, exert pressure on it and warn Pyongyang against any rash action aimed at the Seoul. The other equally strong message was to inform Beijing that the US would stay on as the dominant power in the region, that it would come to the aid of its allies, and that China would not be allowed to further its territorial ambitions unimpeded.
The islands in the South China Sea, which sit atop an estimated 130 million barrels of oil and natural gas, are important to China. Over the years, Beijing has asserted its claim over a number of islands in the Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan and the South China Sea and entered into disputes with countries such as Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. Chinese military strategists and military personnel were therefore quick to note that the joint military exercises were equally intended to apply pressure on China. Note was taken of Japan's participation. A scholar of an official think-tank affiliated to China's intelligence apparatus analysed that the US had led a gradual build up of naval forces around China's periphery. He enumerated that the US is enhancing its naval deployment in the Asia-Pacific region, that Japan is unwilling to be inactive and is striving to become an Asia-Pacific regional power, that Russia is trying to gain prominence, and India is strengthening relations with Japan and ASEAN.
Other articles in the official media observed that China's neighbours had not bought into its 'peaceful rising' theory. They were particularly critical of Vietnam, accusing it of having taken a series of 'unfriendly' steps and hosting US Navy ships. Japan was similarly accused of preparing to station troops on some islets in the Diaoyu group of islands. A commentary in a Beijing-owned Hong Kong-based paper accused the US of 'reviving Cold War mentality'. It asserted that 'China does not want to fight a war with the US in North East Asia' but warned that 'if the US-ROK military exercise is aimed at China, it means the US is deliberately creating for itself the world's most powerful enemy'.
China permitted its citizens and nationalistic youth to post articles and blogs critical of the US. The PLA also, quite unusually, publicised the conduct of at least six military exercises. One of these had the defence of Beijing as its scenario. The large-scale exercises in the South China Sea on July 26 were witnessed by PLA chief Chen Bingde. He declared that the PLA should "pay attention to the developing international situation" and "make preparations for military struggle". At least two more military exercises are planned in the South China Sea. During this period of rising tension in July and August, China's military also conducted at least three exercises across India in the Tibet Military District. This suggestion of accretion in military strength comes in the backdrop of China's sustained pressure on India regarding Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh.
Official public comments on the dispute have been carefully worded. In his first comment the Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman, Senior Colonel Geng Yangsheng said the "media should not over-interpret war games and make subjective speculation about any heightened situation". Colonel Han Xudong of the National Defence University, wrote in an official weekly that the term 'core interests' should not be loosely used and that 'China's muscle is weak compared to the US'. Yet other analysts recommended that China bide its time and meanwhile modernise its navy. By allowing visits to Beijing by senior US officials recently, the Chinese leadership confirmed its desire to defuse tensions.
More rounds of the recently concluded US-ROK exercises are to follow, however, when tensions will again rise. The ongoing confrontation with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands is reflective of the underlying tensions in the region and confirms that China's leadership will not back off from its territorial claims in the South China Sea. The announcement of August 27, that a manned Chinese submarine embedded China's national flag on the seabed in the South China Sea in May, reinforces this. Beijing will, however, try and calibrate escalation of tension to insulate Sino-US relations from damage. Beijing will also accelerate re-formulation of its Asia Policy and modernisation of its navy
About the author:
Jayadeva Ranade is a former additional secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India
 

ashdoc

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INDIA must focus on building a strong and huge enough guerrilla force by recruiting the Tibetians who are presently living in TIBET(the part occupied by CHINA) and provide them with arms and ammunition to fight against those chinese and get the part of KASHMIR what the chinese ssay AKSAI CHIN and in the course also give the Tibetians there TIBET.
Khampa rebellion in eastern tibet--

This brought back memories of an article i had read in newsweek magazine maybe 10 years ago- that of the khampa rebellion in eastern tibet which led to the dramatic escape of the dalai lama.

this matter is normally not talked about in the american media largely because of the americans own irresponsilble role in it.at that time however china was being looked as the future big threat to america due to its stellar economic growth rate. the provocative book ' the coming conflict with china ' had been released at that time , and the tibet had become the new cause celebre.osama and his minions had not yet made their debut on the american horizon, and the war in iraq and afghanistan not in the offing yet. in this atmosphere newsweek published the article.

this what i remember from the article

it was in the late fifties that the CIAs beureau chief of asia was summoned by the CIA director in a hurry.he said that communist china was rapidly becoming a threat and president eisenhower himself had asked for some action against it in tibet.

then the CIA director took the asia chief to a large map on the wall above a sofa and said ''well, lets first locate where tibet is!''. he pointed to a place in eastern europe and said this is where tibet probably was!he probably thought that all communist nations were located in eastern europe.the asia chief had to show him where it actually was. they both eventually ended standing on the sofa 'looking' at the theatre of operations.

india was to be the springboard of operations, and kalimpong near sikkim the headquarters. even though nehru was a sinophile and he regularly fulminated against america,he had to keep quiet on this one because india was critically dependent on america for aid and for food supplies to keep its evergrowing population from the brink of starvation.(this was the state of nehruvian socialism.). he did go so far as to call kalimpong ' that nest of spies.'

a band of americans with real balls and also tibetians in exile agreed to go to tibet to train the rebels.dakota aircraft began to fly across the NEFA border- todays arunachal pradesh- to send weapons to the rebels - tough khampas of eastern tibet-and to train them.

they carried out many hit and run attacks against chinese convoys carrying soldiers taking advantage of tibets rough terrain. in one of the raids they killed a chinese brigadier general and captured important papers which contained detailed plans to produce atom bombs and test them at lop nor in quinghai adjasent to tibet- a region over which tibet has a claim.this was the first indication to the west about chinas plan to manufacture nuclear weapons.

however the plan was doomed from the start.the rebels were still armed with antiquated weapons and china had overwhelming superiority. after a few months the asia chief was again summoned to the CIA director and told that relation with china were improving and the americans must withdraw- leaving the rebels in the lurch obviously.

the rebels continued the hopeless battle with china alone.without american help however they were doomed.the end came when they were caught in a mountain pass and annihilated. some fightting bravely to the bitter end.

the rebellion was a useless sacrifice of brave men ready to lay their lives on the line for religion , king and country. tibet had to pay a terrible price for it. the monasteries were closed and the chinese tyrannys increased. worst of all the chinese pushed millions of chinese into tibet and converted tibetians into a minority in their own land.

and what happened to their king?the chinese govt decided that keeping him in tibet was too risky.and decided to move him to peking -as beiging was known then- and keep him under close guard. he learnt of this and decided to escape.......

when the CIA learnt that the dalai lama was fleeing it promptly went to nehru and asked him to give asylum-fortunately he made one of the few and rare honourable decisions of his life and agreed immediately to give it without the formalities it required- cutting miles of red tape.

indias role in the rebellion musnt have endeared itself to china and may have provoked it to teach india a lesson- already in 1959 clashes occured between indian and chinese troops.1962 was not far away........
 

ajtr

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NightWatch

For the Night of 7 October 2010


India-Russia: India will buy 250 to 300 advanced stealth fighter aircraft from Russian, according to Defence Minister A.K. Antony, as he announced the deal worth nearly $30 billion. Antony and Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov said Russia would supply the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) as well as 45 transport aircraft. India also will jointly manufacture the fighters under license for ten years.

Comment: The future of the Indian Air Force appears to be linked primarily to Russian rather than US firms. This agreement thinly hides an Indian strategic judgment about the threats it faces from China and Pakistan, about the US as a supplier for coping with those threats compared to the Russians.

India is making long term preparations to be ready for a major war after ten years that will require fifth generation fighters because the most likely enemy - presumably China - also will have those air capabilities. The Russians are willing to sell India the aircraft and to license the technology. The US is not building significant numbers of fifth generation fighters and will not sell them even to Israel.

The Indians, Russians and Chinese do not share the US strategic outlook favoring small wars and counterinsurgency forces.
 

Energon

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Even if there were a real military threat from China (which is actually rather unlikely given ground realities) hypernationalistic paranoia is probably the last method anyone should consider for handling such a situation. Pursuing policy with such a mindset will not yield a favorable outcome and it'll only result in another episode of India making a fool of itself on the global stage.

Unfortunately hypernationlism has become a lucrative source of income for many "ex officials" who would have otherwise vanished from the public eye based on their own mediocrity. Lucky for them there is a whole new media and a large group of gullible middle class Indians with disposable incomes who lap up this nonsense. The end result is a crap load of internet warriors foaming at the mouth.

If these "analysts" were to really examine all the information objectively they would see that the chances of military conflict between India and China are actually decreasing and not increasing (source: Fareed Zakaria "Post American World Chapter 4). It is also clear that China's primary tool of choice in engaging its "adversaries" is economic opportunism, not military action. The Chinese are far too smart and secure about themselves to engage in a military conflict with any other nation, let alone big military powers like the USA or India (JB Starr "Understanding China").

China's advances come when the adversaries are preoccupied with expensive inconsequential endeavors like "nation building" or conventional arms buildups. Their foreign policy enables these distractions whenever possible and then economics take over as they usurp all business and industrial enterprise from the said distracted adversaries. Clearly USA and India fall into this category; both have fallen into this trap and are likely to lose out to China in the long run (this can change).

All China has to do in order to distract India is to issue some obfuscated nonsensical comments through puny civil servants and diplomats and occasionally make some stupid visa policies allowing Kashmiris a separate status or what have you (there are hardly any Kashmiris who travel or do business in China). But doing this results in a barrage of reactionary hypernationalistic paranoia thanks to the low quality of journalism and a general lack of critical thinking skills which then results in more Sukhoi purchases, mass military deployments and army road projects costing 10s of billions, most of which gets siphoned off by Indian politicians and bureaucrats who are all to eager for opportunities such as these.

In the mean time China keeps growing and investing in vital infrastructure especially impressive highway and rail networks which brings about economic activity to many remote areas. Economic stimulation also tends to lessen friction between people and the government. This is markedly different from the Indian side of the border where inadequate army roads (unpaved in certain areas) does very little to promote economic activity and the increasing troop deployment results in friction with local populations (standard for any deployment anywhere in the world). This in turn means very little advances in economic activity and increasing internal tension.

The final outcome is a far more impressive and developed Chinese border area which is matched by a woeful economically stagnant Indian side where most of the people feel alienated and disenchanted with their government. It is the eventual disparity that will serve as a "defeat."

China has far better things to do than to fight a conventional war with India. Also, economic activity through trade and protected shipping routes remains the primary motivation for the bases in the Indian ocean, not military domination. Shipping ports in countries like Burma and Sri Lanka also means their markets will be flooded by Chinese goods which will enable economic domination of the entire region.

Everyone keeps harping about 1962 without putting it into context. China attacked India to humiliate her and attain superiority in the newly formed post WWII global pecking order. The territorial gains themselves were of little value. India for it's part was entirely unprepared, disorganized and clueless about the theater of war. Unfortunately nothing has changed. India is still clueless about the real theater of war- economics and is instead obsessing over conventional military build ups at the expense of more pressing concerns like infrastructure development and economic stimulation of border regions. The way things are going, China is bound to "win" this war as well.

INDIA must focus on building a strong and huge enough guerrilla force by recruiting the Tibetians who are presently living in TIBET(the part occupied by CHINA) and provide them with arms and ammunition to fight against those chinese and get the part of KASHMIR what the chinese ssay AKSAI CHIN and in the course also give the Tibetians there TIBET.
Yes, clearly this tactic works because it was such a raving success for Pakistan who used this "strategy" as the center piece of their national security.
 

roma

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China will also use its old TU-16 bombers to lob cruise missiles at India.

FORCE also urges India to induct its AWACS fast to use as force-multipliers.

It also discusses the possibilities of china using tactical nukes ,if its campaign goes wrong .

Both WEEK and FORCE magazines agree that china will be ready to launch full scale war only by 2020.

That gives us 10 years to prepare for what is certainly a looming confrontation...........

your article is a superb selection of pertinect article(s) reminding us that it is not the much talked about 2012 to 2015 time fraame but indeed goes beyond that window

it also is a cold but necessary reminder of what we are up agains - a dragon that is dead serious .

many thanks to our fellow member ashdoc
 

roma

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you lost askai chin in 1962 where as after occupying tawang chinese withdrew .try to understand chinese mindset china will always keep tawang as open issues for future confrontations with india.by diverting GOI's mind towards east china is making foray into POK thereby encircling india in J&K from three sides.Its the same Ploy indian forces applied in 1971 war by holding in west and encircling and then attacking east pakistan from three sides.

good point ... but isnt it rather that they can use either the easter or western route to encircle india ? so whichever side they perceive or worse find to be weaker is the route they might prefer to exploit
 

roma

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First 2012, then 2015, now 2020 is the deadline. After 5 years it will be 2025. I think Chinas time is over as far as finding a military solution to the border problem is concerned. That is why it has propped Pakistan just to keep India bogged down. China would like to have it that way only for the next several years as more than the borders it is now concerned about the rise of India as a threat to its future superpowerdom. As long as India has a decent defense, its not going to be attacked and India is right now building aggressive systems so that can safely rule out any misadventure by china. It will just try those incursions as it is doing all these days. We just have to guard against that as china might employ a policy of taking a few inches a year on the sly.


cant agree with your first inference that as far as a miltary solution , it's chance is over .

remember how patient and stalking dragon was over tibet. They made formal claims since the 1800's and only managed to move in , in the 1950's - about a century later .

the mentality hasnt changed and will remain the same as long as CPC is still their boss - they display great continuity in their policies over the decades , being a communist regine

unlike in india, when, if a ruling party is replaced, policies can change substantially

the article is to be taken very seriously because whether as you suggested they move an inch at a time or more rapidly as the article suggested one thing is for sure -

AP and the other border "opportuities " are still very much on their minds !!
 
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black eagle

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Recently I read two magazines ,both of which clearly state that China is dead serious about its claim over Arunachal .

THE WEEK newsmagazine carried on its front page the story CHINA PROVOKED--THE INSIDE STORY OF HOW INDIA FORTIFIED ARUNACHAL.

It states that India has now put such a large number of troops in arunachal ,especially mountain divisions ( that is ,divisions trained and equipped for mountain warfare ,each of 15,000 men ),including two brand new ones ,that china's aims have been effectively thwarted.

Also the military magazine FORCE carried a headline story DEFENDING TAWANG IN A LIMITED WAR .

On opening it however , I found about seven eight articles discussing India-china confrontation in depth.

It states that tawang in arunachal is clearly a tibetian monastary ,the second most important in tibetian buddhism ,and china feels that its conquest of tibet will remain incomplete unless tawang is conquered.

FORCE also discusses the India -china military balance in detail ,having a seperate articles on the air power balance between the two sides ,the comparison between India's road building on our side and china's rapid building of infrastructure on their side and also the comparison between the respective air forces.

WEEK claims that road building on our side has rapidly improved ,and now matches china's ,and FORCE gives details of this..

FORCE also agrees that India has so well fortified arunachal ,that if china tries a war like 1962 ,it will be utterly stopped in its tracks........India has not only prepared defences in depth ,but besides the two mountain divisions ,is creating two mobile strike divisions to confront china .

The four new divisions are being created entirely newly with new recruited troops ,so our army is being enlarged by 60,000 troops.

However , if China decides to go on high intensity war ,the scenario might be different ..........it can use air power to strike india ,even air-dropping troops in the brahmaputra valley to create panic.

The greatest advantage that china has over india is that of short range ballistic missiles ,which it has in large numbers.These can be used to fire salvo after salvo to destroy our air fields ,communications ,army depots etc.

India, on the other hand has been slow to induct the prithvi , which it has is some numbers , but less than the chinese.If inducted in large numbers ,it can be used in a similar manner to counter chinese agression.

India ,however has been inducting long range rockets like smerch and pinaka to counter this chinese threat ,and roads have been upgraded for carrying batteries of smerch and pinaka.

The other worry comes from china's rapid reaction forces. It has 3-4 divisions of RECMF ( resolving emergency combat mobile force ),which can be used to be inducted rapidly at any point of china's frontiers , including arunachal.This forms an extremely potent force.

China also has the capacity to airlift an entire division of 15,000 men in one go ,and a regiment of 3000 men in a single airlift.

FORCE states that india can put 14 divisions on the frontier in case of a full-scale war ,that is ,near 250,000 men,while keeping pakistan firmly in check on the other side.

However china can put nearly 30 divisions , a force of 500,000 men.Even in the cold desert of tibet ,infrastructure has been created to induct such a large force with its equipment.

It also has 5-6 logistics brigades which have stored fast expendible stores like ammunition and fuel ,and will each support a chinese army ,thus helping it maintain the tempo of war.

However India still can defend its frontier with 14 divisions ,as a defender requires less men ,especially in high mountain terrain which is forested.

FORCE states that by 2020 china will have 500 sukhois ....right now it has 271 sukhois .

India will have 272 sukhois by 2020 ....right now it has 115 .

Our sukhois are better than china's ,which has many old sukhoi-27s , and our pilots training and proficiency is better ,while china's pilots are poorly trained .China recognises this ,and is using pakistani pilots to improve training.

FORCE frets that our SAMs ( surface to air missiles ) are old ,and the process of replacing them has been delayed too long.

China will also use its old TU-16 bombers to lob cruise missiles at India.

FORCE also urges India to induct its AWACS fast to use as force-multipliers.

It also discusses the possibilities of china using tactical nukes ,if its campaign goes wrong .

Both WEEK and FORCE magazines agree that china will be ready to launch full scale war only by 2020.

That gives us 10 years to prepare for what is certainly a looming confrontation...........
could you please provide a link for these two articles.
 

ashdoc

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could you please provide a link for these two articles.
Force magazine is available on the net only with subscription.....i haven't got one.

I read a printed issue of it.

Here's a link to what articles are there in the issue i read --

Current Print Edition-FORCE - A Complete News Magazine on National Security - Defence Magazine, Cover Story, Interview, Guest Column, Column, Feature Report, Industry, Industry News, Service News, Show Reports, Special Reports
 

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ashdoc

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what about the week??
Here's a shortened version of the week article I found on *********** forum--

It is back to eyeball-to-eyeball, barrel-to-barrel and bayonet-to-bayonet on the India-China border. Narasimha Rao's 1993 agreement on border peace and tranquillity is dead. So is the 1995 agreement to pull back from Sumdorong Chu, as well as the 1996 agreement on military confidence-building. These agreements had enabled the Indian Army to move several divisions from the China border and deploy them in the Kashmir Valley to fight insurgents. It also enabled China to focus less on military matters, make economic progress, show a soft face to the world, host the Olympics and gain global prestige.

Kashmir is secure and the Olympics over. Both countries are currently on a military-building spree over the Himalayas. Indeed, China drew the first blood by building rail lines, roads and airfields so that it can quickly move huge divisions into Tibet from where they can pulverise the frontiers of India. Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, with its politically sensitive monastery which the Chinese have always coveted, looked particularly vulnerable.

India has been paying back in the same coin, building border roads for quick troop movement, upgrading airfields in Ladakh and helipads in Arunachal, raising new Army divisions, redeploying an entire corps, and even giving wings to entire brigades for heli-lift. Operation Falcon, Indira Gandhi's 15-year border militarisation programme launched in 1980 and given up in 1993, has been re-started under another name. With the result that Arunachal, especially Tawang, is today an Indian fortress, or a windmill which would be quixotic for the Chinese to tilt at. A frustrated China, therefore, is seeking out another Achilles' heel in Kashmir's Ladakh.

Recent Chinese actions against Kashmir and Ladakh are evidence of this frustration, say senior Indian Army officers. Militarily, there were a series of Chinese border intrusions in Ladakh last year. Diplomatically, China altered its public posture on Kashmir from 'hands-off' (even during Kargil war, China refused to help Pakistan) to a declaration that Kashmir is 'disputed territory'. Adding insult, Beijing even offered to mediate on Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Then it offered to host Hurriyat chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq in China and began issuing visas to Kashmiris on loose sheets, indicating that Beijing does not recognise their Indian passports and nationality.

The latest: China denied visa to India's Kashmir commander, Lt.-Gen. B.S. Jaswal, who was to visit Beijing on a mutually agreed confidence-building military visit. Simultaneously, it moved a battalion of troops into Khunjerab Pass in Pakistan-held Gilgit-Baltistan, ostensibly to help Pakistan combat the floods, but probably to build a rail line that would take Chinese goods to Pakistan's ports and Chinese troops to the doors of Siachen. From there, the troops could threaten the Indian sources of several rivers that flow into Pakistan. All of a sudden, the Indian Army in Ladakh is finding the Chinese on three sides—Aksai Chin in the east which China occupied in 1962, Xinjiang in the north and Gilgit-Baltistan in the west annexed by Pakistan in 1947-48.

The Chinese build-up around Ladakh, India believes, is a tit-for-tat for India's fortressing Arunachal which, in turn, had been done in response to the Chinese build-up in Tibet.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) had moved troops into Tibet following the anti-Beijing riots in March 2008. Hundreds of armoured vehicles, fit for fighting regular military battles, poured into Tibet from the Leshan-(Sichuan province) based 149 Division through the newly built Qinghai-Tibet rail line. More of them drove in through the Sichuan-Tibet Highway.

Most of the troops returned after shooting the rioters, but the 149 Division's 52 and 53 Brigades have since been converted into rapidly mobile units which can be deployed in Tibet's southern frontiers (bordering India) within 48 hours. Next, the PLA moved to acquire a capability to rail-move its 61 and 149 Rapid Action Divisions into Tibet.

Sensing trouble, the Indian defence ministry permitted the Indian Air Force (IAF) to move a squadron of Sukhoi-30MKI warjets from their Pune base to Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh from where they can strike deep into Tibet and even mainland China. And early this year, the 30 squadron of Sukhois flew into Tezpur in Assam and parked themselves there, just in case.

The presence of Sukhois rattled China. It suddenly realised that its rail line into Tibet, a military engineering marvel (runs at 4,200 metres from sea level, and so the crew and passengers need to be acclimatised for the journey), is vulnerable to interdiction bombing by Sukhois. It also realised that roads were safer for troop movement during war than trains. So Beijing embarked on a programme of upgrading its highways into Tibet, especially National Highway 318 which connects Linzhi (where the 52 Mechanised Brigade is stationed) to Lhasa, the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and the Sichuan-Tibet Highway.

The development was noted by the defence ministry. "...There is a feeling," Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar told Parliament's standing committee on defence in a classic understatement, "that our neighbouring country, China, has been able to build up a very good infrastructure" close to the Indian borders.

China has also been enhancing its strike power in Tibet. The Indian Army believes that the PLA can move one full mechanised infantry division into Tibet in 48 hours in an emergency, and about 10 divisions in one month for a permanent base. More worryingly, in its largest ever tactical exercises (code-named Stride) last year, the PLA demonstrated awesome airlift capability. As per the Indian Army's assessment, China today can airdrop an infantry brigade of 3,000-plus in one airlift and an entire infantry division of about 15,000 troops and their equipment in a single operation.

In addition, China is also learnt to have raised a rapid deployment force (called Emergency-Resolving Mobile Combat Force) which can induct four divisions on any stretch of its frontier (or enemy territory) on a day's notice. Plus, the PLA's logistics management has been tuned in such a way as to gain a capability to move 20 to 25 divisions over two months. Most of these capabilities were proven in Stride-2009 in which 50,000 troops were moved across 1,600km by road, rail and air from the military districts of Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou.
Stride-2009 was essentially aimed at proving the PLA's ability to mobilise in real time. However, what alarmed India was the simultaneous building of advance infrastructure in Tibet so that nearly 25 divisions could be moved into Tibet at short notice. China had three main airfields in Tibet—Kongka, Hoping and Pangta. However, in the months prior to Stride-2009, China built or operationalised two more around Lhasa, and four more elsewhere in Tibet, thus giving them nine airfields to land troops and support fighter operations. And about two months ago, China even exercised a few squadrons of Sukhois and J1s over Tibet. "Exercising them over Tibet has other implications," said an IAF officer. "You cannot have a sustained exercise programme without having built massive ground support system. Thus even if China is not basing advanced fighters in Tibet as of now, they have all the ground systems in place. They can move in the aircraft in a matter of two hours now."

More worrying has been the recent integration of their non-nuclear strategic missiles with their military area commands. India has kept its non-nuclear missile regiments (such as 333) under a separate command so that battalion or brigade commanders are not tempted to use them in the event of minor battlefield reverses. China, however, has integrated them into their area commands which signals that their use in battle is being left to the judgment of middle-level commanders.

All these military posturings, which have been evolving over the last two years, have been 'doctrinised' in the White Paper that China published on January 20, 2009, the day Barack Obama was inaugurated in Washington. The White Paper talked of a new doctrine called 'active defence' aimed at "winning local wars in conditions of informationisation [sic].... This guideline lays stress on deterring crises and wars.... It calls for the building of a lean and effective deterrent force and the flexible use of different means of deterrence."

Indian defence ministry reacted with unprecedented alacrity. It sought permission to restart Operation Falcon—programme to build border roads and other infrastructure for quick military movement into Arunachal— launched in 1980 by General Krishna Rao on the orders of Indira Gandhi. China had captured Tawang in 1962 but had withdrawn realising that it could not hold on in the event of a counter-attack by the Indian Army. The operation was launched to secure Tawang against any adventurism by China. However, India had to suspend the operation in 1993 in lieu of China promising not to foment any border trouble.

Now with China building up forces in Tibet, Delhi had no option but to re-start the operation. The foreign office made a high-level visit to Arunachal and apprised the cabinet of the pluses and minuses of agreeing to the defence ministry's request. Reacting with unprecedented swiftness, India launched a massive border road-building programme, not just by the defence ministry's Border Roads Organisation (BRO), but even under Centrally-funded state government efforts such as Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana. "Earlier the military doctrine of the country was not to have roads close to borders," Defence Minister A.K. Antony told the Rajya Sabha last month, "but the same has now been revised in the changing geo-political scenario, and the government has taken a conscious decision to expedite construction of road infrastructure in border areas."

A few days earlier, the BRO had told Parliament's standing committee on defence: "Two years back the philosophy of our nation was that we should not make roads as near to the border as possible.... It is only two to three years back that we suddenly decided a change in philosophy and said, no, we must go as far forward as possible."
Indeed, the military and the BRO moved with incredible speed to match the Chinese road for road. "Border Roads Organisation has been asked to concentrate on strategic roads," Antony told the Rajya Sabha on August 11. "There are 73 roads on India-China border (length 3,647km), out of which the BRO has been entrusted with 61 roads of total length of 3,394km in J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. Out of 61 roads, 14 roads of length 556.22km have already been completed and work is under progress on 42 roads....[Work] on five roads has not commenced." According to Antony, 41 roads are planned to be completed by 2013 and the remaining six later.

The IAF, facing a severe shortage of transport helicopters, too, has been asked to pitch in. It lent 142.45 tonnes of heli-lift capability to the BRO in the last six months. Finding this inadequate, the ministry has asked the BRO to hire Pawan Hans helicopters.

While the BRO has been building roads, the Army and Air Force have been enhancing their strike power. The Dimapur Corps (3 Corps), which has several mountain divisions under it, has been completely pulled out of counter-insurgency operations in the northeast and converted into a full-fledged offensive corps on the China border. The corps has also been given awesome firepower. The Rangia-based 2 Mountain Division has been pulled out from the Tezpur Corps (4 Corps) and attached to the offensive Dimapur Corps. The corps has also been promised, in an emergency, the services of 41 Division, which is still under the Tezpur Corps. And crowning all the moves is a recent accretion: two new mountain divisions—numbered 41 and 56—have been quietly raised and given to the Dimapur Corps.
In short, in case the Chinese attempt any kind of adventurism on the Arunachal-Sikkim sector, the Indian Army would have three full corps waiting for them—the Sukhna-based 33 Corps, the Tezpur-based 4 Corps and the newly-augmented Dimapur-based 3 Corps. All of them have also been given the light 155mm guns which can be heli-lifted. Advanced landing grounds have been built in Tuting, Pasighat, Vijaynagar, Along and Mechuka in Arunachal for heli-landing troops and equipment. "Take it from me," said a general staff officer, "if they come, the Chinese will find Tawang an impregnable fortress."
Apparently the Chinese know this. And so they have been shifting focus onto the western sector comprising India's Ladakh.
A few probing trespasses were made there last year, to which

India responded with three measures. First, Jairam Ramesh's road-blocking environment ministry withdrew its objections to building roads in some 760 Himachal villages. Second, the Indian Air Force augmented and activated a landing strip at Nyoma, 20km from the China border for taking troop-carrying Antonov-32 planes. Next, the IAF developed two more airstrips at Fukche and Daulat Beg Oldi.

The third move, by the cabinet, was to clear the contract for building a tunnel in Rohtang which would make it possible for the troops to move to Ladakh at any time of the year. At present the Ladakh garrisons are supplied troops, food, fuel and ammunition through two routes. One is the Pathankot-Srinagar-Zoji la-Kargil-Leh route, which is blocked by snow in winter and is within the firing range of Pakistani artillery (Kargil war 1999). The other is the Kullu-Manali-Rohtang-Leh route, which is also snow-blocked in winter. A horse-shoe tunnel in the snow-prone stretch at more than 3,000 metres near the 4,000-metre-high Rohtang Pass would make the route available throughout the year. The project was approved in 2000, but no progress has been made since. Suddenly the government remembered it and Sonia Gandhi inaugurated its construction on June 28.

These moves, India expects, would make a Chinese bid on Ladakh from Aksai Chin in the east almost impossible.

So the Chinese are opening another front on the west—from Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-held northern areas.
What next, Delhi?
 

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