The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019

[jamesvaikom]

Will Pakistan remain as a country till 2019? Some Pakistani members are so ashamed of their nationality that they are hiding behind Chinese flag. Pakistani Govt. has already leased some parts of their country to China. They may sell their whole country in future.

 

[arnabmit]

With a 95% realistic interception rate, for every 20 nukes added, effectively the threat increases by only 1 nuke.

Plus you are forgetting Indian SIGNET & COMNET capabilities.

As will India. Pakistan has 90-110 nuclear warheads, and is adding a dozen or so each year. Pakistan's nuclear technology and delivery systems are on par with India's as well.

What nobody here seems to be understanding is that since India is engaged in this nuclear arms race with Pakistan, and India also tends to make noises against China from time to time, China could hint to India that the next time India complains or intrudes in the SCS, China will let Pakistan 'steal' road-mobile MIRV-capable IRBM technology, advanced penetration aids designed to defeat US ABM systems, and miniaturized thermonuclear warheads based off research acquired from the US Los Alamos laboratory (especially warheads modeled off the US W88, which is now China's stock-standard warhead model).

This would turn Pakistan's nuclear arsenal from a collection of inertially-guided 20-25kt warheads that take 30 minutes to hit, into a bunch of GPS/precision-guided 400-550kt warheads with multiple decoys per warhead that take less than 15 minutes to hit their targets, designed to defeat not just India's attempts at ABM but the real big boys of ABM, the US and Russia.

It's a huge point of strategic leverage against India, because India and Pakistan are both decades away from such technologies, and there's nothing India can do to stop it.

Given this fact, were I a rational Indian planner, I would be pursuing a disarmament treaty with Pakistan post-haste to rectify this vulnerability, but it seems that no Indian politician has the political courage to pursue such a course of action, and the BJP seems hell-bent on pursuing an alternate course of confrontation and blowing $$$ on doubling the manpower of the land army...

 

[t_co]

With a 95% realistic interception rate, for every 20 nukes added, effectively the threat increases by only 1 nuke.

Plus you are forgetting Indian SIGNET & COMNET capabilities.

A 95% interception rate? The US only has a 25% interception rate per interceptor, and each intercepting missile costs over $140M USD, which means to get to even a ~90% chance of a guaranteed kill you'd need like 8 interceptors (75% ^ 8th power). 8 interceptors would cost nearly a billion dollars. If Pakistan were to throw down some heavy, MIRV'd IRBMs, they'd be playing an asymmetrical arms race - each warhead they put up would cost 50-60 million and would cost India 15-20x that to intercept. The math doesn't look good for you.

 

[sayareakd]

by 2014 Pakistan will either become one of the province of China or it will be disintegrate into small states along with nuclear waste land.

 

[arnabmit]

Oh forgot you plan to proliferate MIRV tech to Pak...

A 95% interception rate? The US only has a 25% interception rate per interceptor, and each intercepting missile costs over $140M USD, which means to get to even a ~90% chance of a guaranteed kill you'd need like 8 interceptors (75% ^ 8th power). 8 interceptors would cost nearly a billion dollars. If Pakistan were to throw down some heavy, MIRV'd IRBMs, they'd be playing an asymmetrical arms race - each warhead they put up would cost 50-60 million and would cost India 15-20x that to intercept. The math doesn't look good for you.

 

[Decklander]

@t_co, you seem to have lost it completely. Pls get yourself examined in some good mental hospital if you have any in China.

 

[t_co]

Very droll.

If China wants to occupy India, none will bat an eyelid!

Repatriation of natural resources!

Daydreams!

If India launched a nuclear attack on China without China or India being in a state of war with each other, such actions would not be daydreams.

 

[t_co]

@t_co, you seem to have lost it completely. Pls get yourself examined in some good mental hospital if you have any in China.

How have I 'lost it'?

 

[t_co]

Pakistan has never embarked on any war without the tacit backing of another powerful nation. Check each war.

The US or West is no longer the insurer for Pakistan.

It is only China which gives Pakistan Dutch Courage.

You mean it is only China which lets Pakistan stand up to Indian bullying time and time again?

 

[Illusive]

Where is the Sino India 2020 war thread that OP talked about?

 

[t_co]

Where is the Sino India 2020 war thread that OP talked about?

In the defense and strategic issues forum, because presumably a Sino-Indian War is more likely than an Indo-Pakistani one.

 

[Illusive]

In the defense and strategic issues forum, because presumably a Sino-Indian War is more likely than an Indo-Pakistani one.

I see, not many posted in that thread, which means not many interested in war with China, so sleep well.

 

[t_co]

I see, not many posted in that thread, which means not many interested in war with China, so sleep well.

Even if many DFIers were interested in a Sino-Indian war, I wouldn't be worried, because I have confidence India's leaders are much more intelligent and rational than the posters here

 

[Illusive]

Even if many DFIers were interested in a Sino-Indian war, I wouldn't be worried, because I have confidence India's leaders are much more intelligent and rational than the posters here

We defiantly dont want war with China, nor we expect China to be our friends, stable relationship is what both nations would accept. Its not like that war scenario was written by some journos, some trolling should be acceptable.

 

[Ray]

If India launched a nuclear attack on China without China or India being in a state of war with each other, such actions would not be daydreams.

You feel that India will release nukes without reason and out of pique?

Now that is a daydream!

 

[Ray]

You mean it is only China which lets Pakistan stand up to Indian bullying time and time again?

No, China is too clever to get embroiled directly.

China has never helped Pakistan in any of the wars with India in a direct way, much to the disappointment and anger of the Pakistanis.

But then China has helped always indirectly.

 

[t_co]

You feel that India will release nukes without reason and out of pique?

Now that is a daydream!

I don't feel India would do that, but @Singh seemed to imply India should nuke Saudi Arabia and China if it gets into a nuclear conflict with Pakistan.

 

[cloud_9]

Fap fap fap!

 

[Ray]

I don't feel India would do that, but @Singh seemed to imply India should nuke Saudi Arabia and China if it gets into a nuclear conflict with Pakistan.

Maybe he wanted to generate discussion with a variety of options thrown in.

 

[t_co]

Maybe he wanted to generate discussion with a variety of options thrown in.

Yes, in which case the daydream is not mine, but his.