The fault line which Indian must hold.

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by ..Azad, Dec 22, 2009.

  1. ..Azad

    ..Azad Regular Member

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    “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy norcyourself, you will succumb in every battle.” –Sun Tzu


    Recent surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan just shows that American didn’t wanted to know there enemy, all these yrs or put priority on Iraqi oil fields than Pashtun tribal area. Whereas sitting in a save heaven somewhere in south Waziristan, Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiria a veteran from Kashmiri jehad, now heading famous 313 brigade laid out its strategy. Talking to Asia Times Online he said “They know their enemy well. They know what I am really up to”. In addition to NATO, a disinclined 60000 Pakistani troops hunts for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, official casualties to Pakistani stands to 1400.


    Knowing Taliban

    The term Taliban is used unwittingly by laymen but in realness Taliban comes in many facets, with a well defined command and control structure. Also there are few loosely held groups which are working on agenda of there own – good Taliban perhaps. A Pakistani bet on using Talibani leadership seeking refuge for a better day, now seems to be gone horribly wrong. All this yr Taliban effectively superceding leadership of traditional tribal elder heads, successfully controlling jirgas and shuras which are basically local consultative committees. Till date they have killed more than 200 tribal elders under the charge of American spies.

    These groups thriving on radical Sunni Islamic orthodoxy, derived from Deobandism whose genesis lies in Deodand Darul Uloom madrassah, India – propagated by ISI and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam all over Pak-Afghan. Deoband, a believe to wage jehad in defence of Islam - in India a bomb waiting to go off.

    Taliban which engages Pashtuns who makes 42% of Afgahn population and more in numbers in Pakistan, inhabits all across eastern belt and hold even a larger chunk in southern Afghanistan. The broader hierarchy of Taliban can be understood as :-

    Mullah Omar/ Ladin ---> Mullah Brader (Head all Pashtun shura) ---> Mullah Bakht (Head militant Talibani shura) ---> and than comes after all sectorial units like Haqqani Network, Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, Tehrik-e-Taliban etc.

    Talibani Unit leader in Afgahistan, provision wise :- Leader(provision) :- Mullah Hayatullah (Farah) , Mullah Addul razzak (Helmand), Mullah Jalludin Haqqani (Paktika), Unknown for me (Zabul), Mullah Kadir (Konar), Mullah Dangar (Wardak).

    Talibani Unit leader in Pakistan :- Maulana Fazlullah of Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariate (better known as mullah radio, killed now), Mullah Omar himself from Quetta shura, Baitullah Mehsud of Tehreek-e-Taliban(killed now, don’t know who succeeds him), Laskar‑e‑Toiba, Jaish‑e‑Mohammed. Networks of Hez-e-Islami and Haqqani group also operates in FATA . Attacks on Indian embassy had been masterminded by Haqqani, shows that ISI still interested in swops with Taliban.

    That’s makes all talibani units holding below the Fault Line. Blue line marks Indias fault line in the map beneath

    [​IMG]




    Indian Interest

    India unlike many NATO collaborators have both strategic and economic interests. A strong Afghanistan under the leadership of northern alliance gives India a second front to nail Pakistan and moreover a gateway to central Asia. Presence in western afghan border with airfield in Farkhor, Tajikistan can put India in a very good playing ground. The most important projects by India are Delaram-Zaranj highway, Kandahar-Buldar highway inside Baluchistan and now India is working on Kabul-Kandahar highway. All can be seen in Orange lines in the map (sorry for the quality m’bad with the paint )

    Indian built Chabahar port in Iran will be linked to Delaram-Zaranj highway from where Indian can trade with Afghanistan and can take good to central Asia with the help of Iran, surpassing an iniquitous Pakistan hence beating Gwader port which can be easily put off in an hostile Baluchistan. Gas pipe line can also be laid to the Iranian port from Central Asia, from where it can be carried as usual.


    India which provides 80% of legal opium to western countries for painkiller pharmaceutics, have a huge interest in obliterating Afghans illegal opium trade which is now pioneered by Taliban and Pakistani army commanders. There are more covert or overt stakes India have in Afghanistan which are not for consumption on public forum.

    As repeated attacks on Indian embassy shows that Pakistanis knows India in point of fact is a future competitor both in Afghanistan and Central Asia, amid all the antagonism. Pakistan a nation curved out on a religious detest, can never be at peace with India, irrespective of giving up Kashmir and withdrawing from Afghanistan in mid of a night. As by doing so its will lose all its rationality. These attacks as one might thinks are to make India pack up, which aint going to happen – but are to send a message to mainland that stop broadening your net else keep shedding.

    To safeguard its interest and deny Pakistan its strategical depth, India in 2006 offered to sent its troops for its own security and to train Afghan but at the behest of a striver Pakistan Americans interdict it. India there after have managed to sent its troops for the security purpose. Don’t be surprise if India send more such troops for its future consulates.

    India with by hook or by crook have to stop anti India groups extending its claws to westward from strong holds in southern Afghanistan hence India must hold on to its fault line.

    Blue line in map marks the fault line.
    Black line marks Indian consulate net, more to come in future.
    Orange line marks done highway projects.

    P.s :- Purely my thoughts not of any official setups ;-)

    Jai Hind
    Jai Shri Ram
     
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  3. ..Azad

    ..Azad Regular Member

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    2008 Congressional Research Service report on Afghanistan

    Some of extracts are

    .


    If some purelanders thinks that Islamabad and Tehran are bhai-bahi?


    Just 5.2%, it can well topple pakistan if given a transit route. If not then port in Iran can do the job

    In the 110th Congress, H.R. 2446, passed by the House on June 6, 2007 (406-10), would reauthorize AFSA through FY2010. One of its provision is -
     

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