THE CPEC PIPEDREAM AND WHY GWADAR AS A PORT IS OVERRATED

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by Neelkanth, Jun 14, 2016.

  1. Neelkanth

    Neelkanth Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2015
    Messages:
    102
    Likes Received:
    111
    http://sanjaydixit2010.blogspot.in/2016/06/the-cpec-pipedream-and-why-gwadar-as.html

    Having served in the Merchant Navy before joining the IAS, I can claim to have visited almost all the ports in the Persian Gulf, specially the oil terminals. At the height of Iran-Iraq conflict we were picking up crude from Kharg, an Iranian island in the upper reaches of the Gulf which is its major oil export point, just as Ras Tanura is for Saudi Arabia. So I claim an expertise in the area of analysing ports, specially from the point of view of logistics and through my present calling, I can also now lay claim to understanding a bit of strategic compass.

    With that caveat, let us have a closer look at the frenzy which has gripped Pakistan. CPEC to them is the panacea for all their economic ills and Gwadar is the best port in the world.

    The frenzy is such that a even a reasonably sober twitter handle @karachipost came up with this:

    Similarly, I read a piece today in @Diplomat_APAC by @daimfazil giving five ridiculous reasons on a supposed superiority of Gwadar over Chabahar.

    Let's find a framework for this. What are the qualities a port needs to become a great one. Per the Gwadar Port website, it has 3 berths at present with a plan to add 3 more (a multipurpose, a grain, and an oil berth). It's projected draught is 12.5 metres with which it claims to be able to handle 50,000 DWT (Dead Weight Tonnes, which denotes carrying capacity) vessels. Chabahar has 10 already, and is expanding to include a deep water berth which would be able to handle VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) of 22 m draught or more.

    Let's look at some of the other ports. Mumbai port has 26 cargo/container berths and 6 POL/Chemical berths; Karachi has 12; Nhava Sheva has more than 10, and Dubai (Jebel Ali and Port Rashid) which Gwadar is supposed to be threatening commercially has barely 102 berths, with VLCC POL supply terminals as well.
    So we can quite clearly see that logistically, Gwadar is just a puny little dot.

    Let's now see the hinterland that the two ports would serve. Gwadar can have cargo headed for either Xinjiang, or for Pakistan's internal consumption. The back of the beyond location of this port means that for a private business to switch from Karachi to Gwadar, comparable stevedoring and clearing agencies would be required along with a reliable rail link. That's not happening any time soon. Even if the infrastructure is complete, the soft support system in a hostile terrain would remain hobbled for a long tie to come.
    Comparison with Chabahar is not even warranted, as Chabahar is coming up as a transit port for all of Central Asia and Afghanistan. Muhammad Daim Fazil posits it as a port for India to access Afghanistan and Central Asia through Afghanistan. Only if he had looked at maps. Route to Central Asia from Chabahar doesn't have to go through Afghanistan at all. Moreover, It gives India an alternative route to Russia and its Eastern Republics, as well as the 5 ex-Soviet nations. After Ukraine became independent, Odessa has come to be used less and less. Crossing the Suez has its own costs, so the Iranian North-South corridor would be very useful for India and most SE Asian countries. As a post on quora said (Joseph Boyle):

    "Gwadar is simply unlikely to ever be profitable. It means going an unnecessarily long, long way over the world's highest mountains and through rebels to get to nothing - after all that you're still separated by water.
    If you look at a globe and great circle routes instead of the deceptive Mercator projection, you see a direct, low, feasible route between China and the Middle East is going directly through Central Asia to Iran. Turkmenistan already has pipelines selling large volumes of gas to China, and is right next to Iran."

    Singapore PSA found Gwadar unviable in the long run and left. China stepped in not because it found Gwadar viable, but because it looked at Pakistan as a client State and it was sure it would make Pakistan dance to its tune. China does not even have much of an use for operating this kind of port because it is already operating a ten times larger terminal in Fujairah, UAE, just across the Gulf of Oman. China will use it only to exercise its hegemony over its willing client State.

    I do not foresee a gas or oil pipeline from Gwadar to Xinjiang as a part of CPEC, at least not yet. China is concentrating on pipelines from Kazakhastan. It's principal silk route runs via Urumqi-Kashgar-Almaty-Tashkent-Ashkabad-Tehran. From Ashkabad, Chabahar is directly connected. So Chabahar connects everybody to everybody. That's the reason Iran offered a connectivity to Pakistan as well, which I am sure Pakistan would find offensive. Gwadar by comparison is just a provincial port for Pakistan over high mountains which even China would not find viable.

    Another oft-repeated argument in favour of CPEC is that it is a good strategy by China to bye-pass the Malacca choke. This makes no sense either, as China's consumption areas lie nearly 6000 kms to the East from Kashgar, the northern point of CPEC. In the event of a war, both China and Pakistan would do well to remember that Malacca straits at its narrowest choke point below Car Nicobar is 200 km wide, but the CPEC is just 75 kms away from North Kashmir - well within the range of BVR missiles, Prithvis and Brahmos. Gwadar lies directly in the line of Indian Navy, and would be the second one to be blockaded - After Karachi that is. China would definitely factor that in its strategic calculations. That CPEC infra is passing through a territory which legally belongs to India, and that it would be child's play for India to blockade Gwadar.
    Now let's discuss CPEC's economic calculations. China plans to put in $46 billion over 10 years. $34 billion would build up a power capacity of around 17000 MW (though I have also heard figures of 7 and 10K MWs). The agreements are not on the table (so much for transparency). We don't know whether there is any element of a grant involved. From whatever sketchy information is available, it looks like a combination of loans for road and rail infra, and power plants to be built by the Chinese for which Pakistan has given a sovereign guarantee to buy all the power produced at a fantastic rate of PKR 18 per unit (INR equivalent 11.53). Even the power plants which are going to be all thermal variety are going to be put up at a minimum of $2 billion per GW (1 GW=1000 MW). India routinely builds its thermal power plants at less than $ 1 billion per GW. The average rate per unit on the India power trading exchange has been INR 2.50 for over a year. Bangladesh is buying 1100 MW from India at INR 6 per unit. This is a classical colony making exercise by China, which Pakistan establishment and the Army is quite excited with.

    So it looks to me as if CPEC is a purely marketing exercise by China to rip off some good money from Pakistan for its thermal power companies which have to dismantle their old plants in the mainland to meet the emission norms agreed to by China at the Paris meet. It gives an excuse to the Army to rip off more money from the exchequer in the name of providing security and strengthening its occupation of Balochistan. It has got a 11% raise in its budget in a year in which GDP grew by 4.7%.

    India need not even discuss this. CPEC route passes through a treacherous terrain prone to landslides. One stretch near Attabad was blocked by a landslide created a lake for over 5 years. All India needs to do is to target its missiles on N35 of Pakistan, otherwise better known as the Karakoram Highway.

    So my advice to my Pakistani friends is - please don't parade CPEC and Gwadar to the world. It's not your salvation, it's your cross.
     
  2.  
  3. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2009
    Messages:
    4,101
    Likes Received:
    801
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    Ok Mr Butt Hurt, Chahbahar good Gwadar bad. We got the message. :lol:
     
  4. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2014
    Messages:
    4,727
    Likes Received:
    3,166
    Location:
    Mumbai
    That tweet is full of shit. Gwadar will never become Dubai and Dubai will never become irrelevant. Dubai ports have some free zones e.g. Hamriyah Free Zone. This beats all other ports. Not to mention the geographical location of Dubai. It gives access to entire middle east oil fields e.g. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, South pars oile field in Iran & Qatar etc. Hence, mobilisation of barges, ships, supply vessels, crew boats, etc is much much cheaper and convenient there.

    Why the hell would people go to Gwadar? To mobilise barges? To trade? To visit? Doesn't make any sense.
     
  5. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,082
    Likes Received:
    1,866
    Location:
    Gujarat
    Porkies are so much habituated to live in their dream paradise that if you try to wake up, they will get angry. Many like hasan nisar says that Pakistan will become a chinese colony in a decade. However, That idiot mass is in no mood to listen or think. It is flooded by ISIS paid idiots so called thinkers. Whole country is rapidly rushing into a disaster. It will be a great case study of collapse of a subverted country because of its idiocy. We have to keep calm and watch. After a decade, Hafeez said (Pakistani Spokes man ) shall declare that now It is not US but china is no one enemy.
     
    TODELU and raja696 like this.
  6. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,082
    Likes Received:
    1,866
    Location:
    Gujarat
    Dubai can not become irrelevant because it is the starting point from where the oil is transited. Dwadar is not a starting point. It is a point from where the oil is transferred from sea to land route and the land route is 28 time costlier than sea route hence it is irrelevant. Gwadar will end up in a big disaster. Porkies will have to see one one wet dream to get orgasm.
     
  7. Neelkanth

    Neelkanth Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2015
    Messages:
    102
    Likes Received:
    111
    You see mate, that is the exact spirit we want to see Pakistan in. Denial. May your generations live in denial and make follies after follies. You guys should invest even more money in The Port, and make it at-least have 30-40 berths...
     
    raja696 and Kshatriya87 like this.
  8. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2013
    Messages:
    6,203
    Likes Received:
    5,116
    Location:
    India
    China Upset Over Pakistan’s Handling of CPEC Project

    Earlier in January this year, China had openly expressed its concern over the lack of consensus on the CPEC across the political spectrum and the Chinese embassy in Islamabad had urged political leaders to “address their differences in order to create favourable conditions” for the completion of the project. (Reuters)

    Due to delays in the development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the authorities in Beijing have suggested Islamabad to formally rope in the Pakistan Army to ensure smooth execution of the project. However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is not happy with this suggestion as the ruling PML-N wanted to endorse the CPEC as one of its major achievements during its campaign for the next general election and thus keep it firmly within its control, said a government official.

    “It seems the PM is not happy with the idea, but let’s see how he responds to the latest Chinese assertion. Personally, I think giving the army ownership of CPEC will only help ensure its trouble-free implementation. The military establishment has the manpower and technical expertise required,” the Dawn quoted the official as saying.


    With the Panamagate controversy and Prime Minister Sharif’s extended stay in London following heart surgery, the progress on the CPEC has taken a backseat. A security official privy to the development said the Chinese were “unhappy with the overall management of the project, particularly the involvement of various ministries”, which were causing unnecessary delays. They envisioned the creation of a separate ministry or authority to deal exclusively with the CPEC.
    The project is currently being overseen by a special section set up at the Prime Minister’s Office — with Ahsan Iqbal’s Ministry of Planning and Development serving as the focal ministry. The army has already created a special division to provide security cover to CPEC-related projects.


    Earlier in January this year, China had openly expressed its concern over the lack of consensus on the CPEC across the political spectrum and the Chinese embassy in Islamabad had urged political leaders to “address their differences in order to create favourable conditions” for the completion of the project.

    A spokesman for the Chinese embassy had expressed hope that the relevant parties should strengthen their communication and coordination on the matter. Commenting on the issue, Iqbal said that he was unaware of any such development and insisted the Chinese are very happy with the arrangement put in place for CPEC.
    Source>>

    -------

    Well!! can we expect another coup in pakistan with the support of china!!
     
    Kshatriya87 and Bornubus like this.
  9. Bornubus

    Bornubus Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2015
    Messages:
    4,198
    Likes Received:
    7,010
    Very informative, thanks for sharing.
     
    raja696 likes this.
  10. Mikesingh

    Mikesingh Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,072
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    I think the blogger has got it all wrong!

    Chinese are making this 'economic corridor' for their own strategic and national interests. Their strategic aim is to establish a PLAAN base at Gwadar to try and dominate the Strait of Hormuz from where a large proportion of the world’s oil flows. Not only the Strait of Hormuz but also to try and dominate the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The CPEC is the only viable option for providing logistics support to their future naval base at Gwadar.

    Secondly, the CPEC will be a backup route to the Gulf in case the Malacca strait is blocked.

    Pakistan is just a side show in this project. The sooner this is realized by the Pakistanis, the better. All this talk of them achieving super power status due to the CPEC is a lot of bull and hot air.
     
    sayareakd likes this.
  11. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2013
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    454
    Location:
    India
    please link what PRC did in NSG to the need to pacifying Pakis and high expectations of PRC in Pakistan. PRC knows the reality they are in for a head on collision with Pakis and all these NSG and UN behaviors is actions to try and evade the reality. I am shocked Pakis are going along up to now. But already signs are getting in place where Pakis are starting to call out PRC. Seeing PRC give such favorable treatment indirectly to Pakis internationally but why ... PRC never does anything for free. Are PRC fearful of Pakis and pre-emptive and pre-emotive actions. WOW

    Always also wondered do Pakis think why PRC controls Xinjiang why not give it to Pakistan and allow it to control. You see Afghanistan ... Also see Pakistan gave land to PRC before for brotherhood - was it gave (1971 output) ... PRC and Pakistan are Iron brothers right >>.

    I am sure PRC never talks to Pakis about Xinjiang. North Korea similarities (nuke weapon area - who controls the weapon and its life expectancy). Please be silent - who built and helped build North Korea ports. All sweet high expectations. What a love story.

    [​IMG]

    (Pakistan skyline in the future ?? impressive)
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
  12. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2009
    Messages:
    15,626
    Likes Received:
    11,703
    Chinese want Gwader so that they wont have there shipping lanes get blocked at choking points at the time of war. Specially fuel supply.
    Pakistani too will get help in form of infrastructure and transit fees. May get employment in form of labour. Though in modern ports it's not employed much.
    Chinese drivers will use the roads to go up and down Pakistan from one end to other and going to our POK.

    Now in any war of China and US, this port will be target of interest for uncle. Wont be difficult for them to take out few tunnels and switch off Chinese life line.
     
  13. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,093
    Likes Received:
    7,626
    Location:
    21°N 78°E / 21°N 78°E
    It's not for a war.
    As pointed out by @for truth before (@Neo too may be interested)
    Gwadar is not meant to be flourishing port. Gwadar is being built because if in any case the Malacca strait is choked, china will have to find another route to keep importing oil--this is the sole purpose, and nothing more.

    Go through these calculations below, this brilliant work was done by 'random.radio' on PDF, who also happens to be mod on another Indian defense forum.

    In short, these calculations tell us that shipping through Gwadar port is costlier and more time consuming than transporting through seas, and distance between pakistani cities and Chinese flourishing cities is as much as distance between pakistani cities and major European cities, so if there is no land route trade happening between Europe and Pakistan, then certainly no trade will happen between china and Pakistan in large scale. And anything which is cheaper and quicker is always preferred, which is not the case for transporting through Gwadar.


    "This is cost comparison for viability of CPEC.

    Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km

    5121 Km - Distance from Shanghai to Kashgar

    Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

    2747 Km - Distance from Kashgar to Gwadar

    Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.

    http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf

    Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

    https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf

    These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway World's 10 dangerous roads | CNN Travel ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shanmountain range.

    But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

    Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47
    Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41
    So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88

    Now let destination port be Dubai.
    Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU

    http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10

    Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93

    Twenty-foot equivalent unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

    Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787
    Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67

    Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93 which is 16 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar.Heck Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai.

    This is time viability calculation for CPEC.
    Let's calculate time. In order to give CPEC some leeway, I am expecting that a Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30Kmph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

    Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.
    Time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days

    BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds
    Total time required for overland transport when your drivers and port handlers are superman = 16 days.
    Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.

    Calculating Container Shipping Time
    This was an outlier calculation.
    Let's be realistic.
    Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refuelling stop.

    It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashghar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account.

    Let's assume that it takes only a day to transfer cargo from a Pakistani to a Chinese truck. The time spent before that Truck moves towards CHina is 9.7 Hours.

    That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach SHanghai from Kashghar. ie 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days.

    Now we assume that Gwadar system is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

    Import Clearance Procedure -- Mehran Corporation Karachi Pakistan
    Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 37 days compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca.Even reaching border of China-Pakistan would take more time (21 days vs 15 days) than transporting a container from Dubai to remotest part of Chinese seaboard.

    This is about growth potential calculation for CPEC:
    Following provinces are close to CPEC

    1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million

    2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million

    3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million

    4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million

    5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million

    Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is. You share border with Takla Makan desert of China.

    Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place,

    CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China. I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that CPEC has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.

    People usually could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan.

    It needs to be understood that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe! For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km) I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.

    let's do some analysis. I am calculating Islamabad so that you could get a grasp over distance as Ankara is 4400 Km away from Islamabad by road. and All distance henceforth are by road.

    No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).

    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km
    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km
    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km

    No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)

    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km
    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km
    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km

    No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital

    Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km
    Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.
    But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km
    Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km

    no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)
    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km
    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km
    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km

    No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)
    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km
    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km
    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km

    No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)
    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km
    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km
    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km

    All these Western provinces of China are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

    Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.

    I could do same calculation for Chahbar too. It would take max half an hour for me, though I do not see any point as India is developing Chahbar as strategic port, rather than for financial benefits. Similar to what China is doing with Gwadar.

    The province of China that borders Pakistan and provinces of China that borders that province along with their bordering provinces cover 54% of China's landmass and have only 6% of population because they are mostly deserts, mountains, and high altitude plateau.There are no consumers in provinces to develop them.

    XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. People who think that CPEC would be used for trade with China has not fathmoned how big China is. Even Takla Makan desert which lies beyond Kashi is larger than Pakistan.

    Apart from that most of cities in Western China are farther from Islamabad than European capital by road. Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is 4900 Km from Islamabad by road, Ningxia (Yinchuan) is 4300 Km, Choquinin is 5000 Km, Ghuzihou (gulyang) is 5500Km away, Yunan(Kuming) is 5900Km, and Sichuan (Chengdu) is 5000Km away from Islamabad. Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.


    CPEC is nothing but an insurance policy of China."
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
  14. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    3,956
    Likes Received:
    2,637
    Location:
    Kolkata, India.
    Indians asked for the transit you rejected it, so stupid of Pakistan... and you thought that India will have no way to reach central Asia...

    It does not matter which port is better ... Chahbahar has just proved that there are many ways to reach central Asia !! Pakistan or NO Pakistan ...
     
  15. Mikesingh

    Mikesingh Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,072
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    Bloody amazing stuff this!! The guy who had calculated all this must have burned midnight oil for a week at least!! I need to save this as reference and throw these calculations at the Pakis who think the CPEC is going to make them a super power.

    One of their moronic senators called Abidi also stressed that rivers of gold were about to flow in Pakistan!! Lol! :pound:And he calls Gwadar, "MEGA OIL CITY"! Lol! 'Mega' my ass!

    And what hasn't been covered is the cost of energy that the ordinary Paki would be paying the Chinese. At present it is around Rs 8 PKR on the average (Slab system) for electricity consumption. When the polluting Chinese coal fired plants are operationalized, the cost would touch a whopping Rs 22-24 PKR per unit as the Chinese companies would need to pay back the huge loans they have taken from the Chinese Central bank and other lending institutions. All this will have to be factored into the total cost to the consumer. So who would be able to afford electricity?

    In a nutshell, the CPEC for the poor Pakis is not a case of rags to riches, but rags to zilch!! :tongue:
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
    sayareakd and Indx TechStyle like this.
  16. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2012
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    937
    Location:
    Canada
    Chabahar is operational and Afghanistan and India are already trading through it; not to mention that its capacity will grow multi fold over the next 18 months. This Chabahar vs Gwadar argument is a non-starter.
     
    sayareakd likes this.
  17. Neelkanth

    Neelkanth Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2015
    Messages:
    102
    Likes Received:
    111
    Sorry, I was traveling, Hence couldn't respond.

    1. A PLAN Base in Gawadar will be like putting their ships in the range of our Lousiest of our defenses, in an insurgency ridden Balochistan. Bad Idea.

    2. Gawader investment is what according to me is the neocolonization bone meted out to Pakistan. and its nothing more nothing less. If you have google earth installed in your PC, try the time history feature over gwader and Chabahar both over the sat ten year you will see what exactly has been developed in last 10 years. Its Zilch.

    3. No one can Block Malacca straits it is not just china centric but the entire trade of Asean and Japan Depends on it it can be picketed and selective ships can be allowed but blocking it will be a very bad idea. , and say even if its blocked, one lousy road through Karakoram mountains will be far easier to destroy at multiple points to cut it off from gawader.
     
  18. tharun

    tharun Patriot

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2014
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    271
    Location:
    India
    So you are saying if strait of malacca is choked..then china will use gwadar port..
    Why are you thinking of Uncle SAM our IA and IAF will take down strategic road and tunnel in POK then Check Mate.........:brahmos:
     
  19. airtel

    airtel Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2015
    Messages:
    1,074
    Likes Received:
    1,581
    must watch :rofl::rofl:
    :balleballe:

    :biggrin2:
     

Share This Page