The Arms Race Myth

Discussion in 'China' started by huaxia rox, Apr 24, 2012.

  1. huaxia rox

    huaxia rox Senior Member Senior Member

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    The Arms Race Myth - NYTimes.com

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    A handout photograph released by the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) shows a surface-to-surface Agni V missile being launched from the Wheeler Island off the Eastern State of Odisha, India, 19 April 2012.



    The test last Thursday of the Agni 5, India’s first missile capable of striking any part of China, was met with something approaching hysteria in the national media. The normally sober Hindu noted how the missile “lifted off majestically,” and the Hindustan cheered “Jai Hind” (Hail India!).

    Perhaps irked by this jingoism, the state-run Chinese media mocked the Agni as a “dwarf,” and warned that, “for the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.” It’s fast becoming received wisdom that such a competition is underway. The New York Times, like others, reported the Agni’s test as “the latest escalation of an arms race in Asia.”

    The problem is that this term is being thrown around too loosely. It is fair to say that China’s expanding economic and military power has spooked its neighbors, many of whom are now moving closer to the United States or modernizing their own military. But India’s test of the Agni 5 was less about a race than about playing catch-up.

    India’s political and military leaders understand that they cannot sustain a true arms race with China. Arms races occur when rivals try and outdo each other for more or better weapons, in the belief that small relative advantages make big differences to security.

    China’s economy is about three to four times larger than that of India, and China spends around three times as much as India on arms. A decade from now, China will field more advanced fourth-generation combat aircraft than the total number of aircraft in the Indian Air Force.

    Given India’s slowing growth rate and the sheer scale of the gap with China, India has no choice but to accept its relative disadvantage and focus on mitigating some of its own vulnerabilities.

    In the context of its border dispute with China, which has flared up since 2005, and the strategic competition around the Indian Ocean, India is taking steps to counter a growing Chinese presence. China is not especially worried about what India is doing, nor taking military countermeasures.

    The Agni 5, of course, is more provocative because it is a nuclear missile aimed at China. Yet there, too, the gap between China and India is yawning. China has up to 90 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles – India has none.

    India and China have both long held to a doctrine of “minimum deterrence.” Delhi and Beijing – unlike, say, Pakistan or the United States – view nuclear weapons strictly as tools for deterrence, only to be used in response to a nuclear strike. That requires nothing more than “second-strike” capability.

    Before the Agni 5, India did not have ballistic missiles with the range to make a “second strike” attack against China’s most important cities, Beijing and Shanghai. Now it does, which means the development of the Agni 5 jibes perfectly with India’s minimum-deterrence ethos.

    True, India has doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal over the past decade. But, despite its pretensions to great power status, India has been relaxed about having fewer weapons than Pakistan. Pakistan has leapt ahead, both in terms of the types and numbers of its nuclear weapons. But that isn’t a race – it’s a lonely sprint.

    As the Manhattan Project’s director, J. Robert Oppenheimer, noted, “our twenty-thousandth bomb” will not “in any deep strategic sense affect their two-thousandth.”

    Of the Agni 5, the Hindustan Times’ foreign editor, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, estimates that India will add, “at best, two such missiles to its arsenal every year.” This will have virtually zero impact on China’s retaliatory capacity. There is, therefore, no reason to suppose that Beijing will scramble to respond in the way that Washington and Moscow would have done in response to one another.

    Under these conditions, having more survivable and robust means of retaliation, like the Agni 5, can be stabilizing. Such missiles can be moved around by road or rail, which makes them less vulnerable than those in fixed silos. This enables India to shift away from less reliable and more trigger-happy delivery systems like aircraft. The more confident India feels in its ability to respond, the calmer it can be in handling crises.

    Of course, sobriety and stability are not guaranteed. China has understandable concerns about developments that could blunt its retaliatory capacity. One example is missile shields, which both India and other Asian counties are exploring. Another is MIRV technology that could be fitted to the Agni missiles. MIRVs refer to multiple accurate warheads that fit onto a single missile. India does not need them for deterrence, and they could slightly heighten China’s fears that its own weapons might be wiped out before they get off the ground.

    An open and sustained Sino-Indian conversation over such issues is necessary. But dark visions of arms races are alarmist, at a time when the Asian strategic balance is in quite enough flux.
     
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  3. Godless-Kafir

    Godless-Kafir DFI Buddha Senior Member

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    LMAO by 202 we will have an technological and qualitative edge over Chinas armed forces.
     
  4. s002wjh

    s002wjh Senior Member Senior Member

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    ever since 62 there are so much mistrust between china and india, even though both are member of BRIC. hopefully the dispute will solve soon, both can work on trades and lessen the mistrust between each other.
     
  5. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Strangely, its the Chinese who have been crying themselves hoarse about the perceived arms race. India never stated that it has indulged in an arms race with China, however Chinese media is rife with such stories.

    China can have thousands of missiles pointed at India, as long as a few hundred can do the job for us it won't matter.

    Its obvious that the author does not know jack about defense.
     
  6. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    It is you who know jack about defence.
    When you are the worlds biggeste arms importer with double digits rise in expenditure, then you are already in an arms race. Just because you have been sleeping, dosnt means others can ignore the truth. Just because India never stated that, dosnt means it is not true. (What an insane logic btw. Do you have to state it for it to be true?!?)

    Not sure about the part about thousand of missiles pointed at India. you probably invented that as well. :thumb:
     
  7. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Do you even realize what an Arms Race is?

    All our procurement are for our defense needs not to sate our egos or perhaps even compete with China. However, China is a hostile nation and we need to be prepared against misadventures.

    And what do you have to say about the Chinese defense budget being trice the size of ours?

    You do take things literally, don't you?
     
  8. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    You still dont get it , right. An arms race is not defined by what justifications you have.
    You can call it what ever you want. When you are the worlds biggeste arms importer with double digits rise in expenditures. You are in an arms race.

    Sorry, i forgot you have the habbit of exaggerating. I will keep that in mind when I talking to you. :p
     
  9. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Lets ask to Professor Wiki.

    India is not looking to produce greater armies, larger weapons etc. etc. We are simply trying to gather enough means to defend ourselves from the Chinese aggression.

    But what China is doing viz a viz the US would constitute an arms race by this definition.

    Don't bother, you'll forget again. Trolls do.
     
  10. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    You seems to be very irritated and insecure by India being the #1 arms purchaser.

    Chinese population is almost same as India but has defense budget 3 times of India(China about $150 Billion and India $50 Billion). Also Chinese real defense budget is said to be much more than it claims. China is known to be a aggressor and threatens almost all the countries on a daily basis, thus a danger to world peace. China is getting arrogant day by day.

    India is not into copy-paste or reverse engineering stuff, so we would buy until we start local defense products.... so go and burn in insecurity :flame:
     
  11. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    YOu do realise Chinas GDP is several times Indias as well?

    Go read what GDP is and how military budget is capped to rise in GDPs.
     
  12. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    I suggest you read the same link that you just posted. AN hint, INdia also fits the bill.

    Yes, thanks for telling me you are a troll. I do tend to forget that some times. :cool2:
     
  13. s002wjh

    s002wjh Senior Member Senior Member

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    lets fire up the cannon should we :popcorn:
     
  14. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    No it doesn't. Quote where you think it suggests so.

    Of course you do.
     
  15. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    I have stated it before, an arm race between China and India is in the interest of China.

    Look at what the arm race had done to USSR during the cold world.

    Today's India is in a much worse shape than the then USSR because it has almost no defence industry. An arm race means India has to import everything from aircraft to rifle.

    Unlike Chinese military buildup, which is indigenous and hence sustainable, Indian defence development is depending on the outside world and is draining the blood of India.

    China needs to start an arm race with India by putting military pressure on India. A high profile arm race between China and India will ease America's concerns over China's defence development. Americans are deeply worried that China is challenging its supremacy, China needs to assure Americans that China's main target is India and has no intention end the rule of America, and that message can be send by engaging with India instead of confronting US directly. For example, next time China conducts another anti-ballistic missile test, China could simply justify it by quoting the famous "China killer" instead of repeating the cliche like "it is tragetting no one".

    An arm race will panic India and divert it from the course of healthy economy development to the course of hazardous military contest with China, which consumes all of India's hard-earned money and leaves none for infrastructure, education, welfare, etc. As far as I can tell, Indians can be easily provoked and angered by China, every tiny move by China can have an remarkable impact over the decision-making process of India. China should take advantage of that and manipulate that process.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
    GromHellscream likes this.
  16. Predator

    Predator Regular Member

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    ^ chinese war-monger on board :rofl:
     
  17. arkem8

    arkem8 Regular Member

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    Again a poorly disguised attempt to try and save face...
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
  18. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    Its down to China to resolve the dispute. But India has learnt that China is like Afzal Khan who stabs Shivaji in the back. India being smart is wearing chain mail armour and also carrying secret weapons to out smart China.
     
  19. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    When you are the biggest copy cat in the history of the world and you copy technology and use it to arm puppet states who are known terrorists, then you are already in the arms race.
     
  20. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    I am going to turn your argument upside down.

    Indian economy is based primarily on internal consumption.

    Chinese is export driven economy. The exports are mostly to the west. West down turn will lead to reduction in the GDP as well. It will affect India, but it will be more damaging to China.
     

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