Target Modi

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Nagraj, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. Nagraj

    Nagraj Regular Member

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    As she choreographs Rahul’s political trajectory, there is one Indian politician UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi fears most: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Why? It can’t be the 2002 communal riots alone. More people have been killed in communal riots and pogroms outside Gujarat – including the 1984 anti-Sikh pogrom – than in Gujarat.

    It can’t be that Gujarat has been a BJP fortress for 17 years. The Congress has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for 23 years and in West Bengal for 35. It can’t be governance. Gujarat has been recognised internationally as India’s best governed large state. It has had no riots since 2002. There is little apparent nepotism or corruption and certainly no family dynasty. And yet, Modi remains the principal target for vilification. An entire ecosystem has been built to sustain this campaign: journalists, social activists and local dissidents.

    The stakes are high. If Modi wins over 110 out of 182 seats in the state assembly election due by December 2012, he will become the frontrunner as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014. The BJP may not officially declare him as the Prime Ministerial candidate to avoid ruptures in the NDA coalition, but the pressure from BJP cadres will be enormous.

    A Modi-led BJP could well win between 180 and 200 Lok Sabha seats on its own due to polarisation of the majority vote. The minority vote is already largely lost to the BJP and if what’s left flees it will have little electoral consequence. A Sushma- or Jaitley-led BJP would probably give the BJP around 140 seats despite the likely collapse of the Congress to around 100 seats in 2014 on account of widespread public anger against corruption and inflation.

    Sonia is a canny political tactician. She knows that the most realistic possibility for the Congress in 2014 is to win upwards of 100 seats and then offer support from outside to a regional front as it did to Chandra Shekhar for five months in 1990-91 and H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral in 1996-98. But to achieve that, she needs to keep the BJP tally down to 140 seats to rule out any possibility of an NDA-3 government. With Sushma, Jaitley, Advani or Nitish as the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate, that may just be achievable. With Modi, it will not.

    This of course is why Nitish Kumar has been dangled the Prime Ministerial bait: Congress strategists know that the anodyne Nitish as the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate will not increase the BJP’s voteshare significantly.

    Examine the chart below. It shows national voteshare and Lok Sabha seats won by the Congress and the BJP in the last four general elections: 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009. In both 1998 and 1999, the BJP won power with 182 seats but, due to coalition partner math, clocked voteshare respectively of 25.59% and 23.75%. To get voteshare back up to over 25% and win 180-200 seats, the BJP needs a voteshare swing of around 7% from the dismal 18.80% it garnered in 2009 (116 seats).

    Lok Sabha elections (1998-2009)



    Congress

    BJP



    Voteshare (%)

    Seats

    Voteshare (%)

    Seats

    1998

    25.82

    141

    25.59

    182

    1999

    28.30

    114

    23.75

    182

    2004

    26.53

    145

    22.16

    138

    2009

    28.55

    206

    18.80

    116

    With Sushma, Jaitley, Nitish or Advani – despite their competence – as the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate, the BJP can at best expect a swing of 3-4%. That would take its votehare to around 22% and (with fewer allies than 1998 to help with the voteshare-seat math) around 140 seats.

    That is the outcome Sonia would want: keep the BJP down to 140, curtail the Congress’ loss to 100-120 and support from outside an unstable government formed by regional parties – before pulling it down (as in 1991, 1997 and 1998) to force a midterm poll in 2016.

    One man stands in the way of this strategy succeeding: Modi. If he wins Gujarat comfortably, he would become the favourite to lead the BJP – and the NDA – into 2014. Nitish’s JD(U) would of course walk out – but with what? A mere 20 Lok Sabha seats.

    Modi’s polarisation effect could plausibly increase the swing in the BJP’s voteshare from the normal anti-incumbent 3-4% to the 6-7% needed to take it to over 25% and 180-200 seats. The Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and AIADMK would contribute 60-70 seats, making an NDA-3 viable without the JD(U). Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (already in alliance with the BJP in the Presidential election) and Jagan Mohan’s YSR Congress would then be needed only as tertiary support.

    This is the outcome Sonia fears. And that is why Modi is in the Congress’ crosshairs as target no. 1. Power is a money-spinner. The audited balance sheets of political parties (How the black economy subverts India's politics, STOI, April 29, 2012) reveal the several thousand crore rupees political parties receive from anonymous donors. In power now for 8 years, the Congress, according to the two parties’ balance sheets, receives twice as much money as the BJP.

    Out of power, its income will plummet. That in turn will stymie its ability to use money to buy future political allies. Out of power, it will also lose the coercive power of the CBI over Mulayam and Mayawati. If it loses badly in 2014, the Congress could be out of power for another 10 years – as it was for 8 years in 1996-2004. Keeping Modi pinned to Gujarat is therefore a do-or-die strategy for Sonia.

    This is where Project Rahul comes in. Despite the growing crescendo from Congressmen for a larger role for him in the next few months, Rahul has acquired negative political equity after UP 2012 and Bihar 2010. If the Congress pitches him directly against Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate, the move could backfire.

    The Congress is banking on the dynasty’s charisma to carry it through in rural India. That could be an error of judgement. Even if Priyanka campaigns actively for Rahul in 2014, the growing hostility against dynastic politics – manifested in the Congress’ losses in 8 out of 10 assembly constituencies in Amethi and Rae Bareli in the 2012 UP state elections – could limit her appeal.

    Sonia’s best hope as ever lies with the poor and Muslims. The poorer the electorate, the more vulnerable it is to charisma, money power, minorityism and false promises. The Congress, in power for 53 of free India’s 65 years, has been a friend of poverty, not the poor, of Muslim backwardness, not Muslim empowerment.

    The Congress successfully crippled Anna’s anti-corruption movement. It will try and do the same by targeting Modi as Gujarat 2012 approaches. His success carries too high a price for the Congress.

    Follow @minhazmerchant on twitter
     
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  3. Nagraj

    Nagraj Regular Member

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  4. ani82v

    ani82v Senior Member Senior Member

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    Bulls eye .
     
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  5. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Where are all those fake seculars, now?
     
  6. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sonia’s best hope as ever lies with the poor and Muslims. The poorer the electorate, the more vulnerable it is to charisma, money power, minorityism and false promises. The Congress, in power for 53 of free India’s 65 years, has been a friend of poverty, not the poor, of Muslim backwardness, not Muslim empowerment.


    SAYS IT ALL.
     
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  7. Nagraj

    Nagraj Regular Member

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    Please..
    Most of the so called secular on this forum are not really seculars.
    unfortunately they themselves don't realise this,
    they are friend of molvies not muslims.
    sometimes i think its because they themselves are not muslims.
    so they don't care weather muslims suffer under mullah rules or rises none of their problem.
    however being a hindu it becomes necessary to stop those bhagvadharis who might threaten their freedom.
    the threads in which most of the shit flies is right wingers vs right wingers thread there are very few left wingers left.
     
  8. Mr.Ryu

    Mr.Ryu Regular Member

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    :pop: :pop:
     
  9. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Like your first two lines .....

    Your last two lines ...... some how I feel you are now trying to keep one leg in doodh and another in dahi.....

    Anyway.....at least right now...... DFI is on 'Secularism Bachao Mode'.


    The most funniest part of your post is the so called 'Bhagvadhari who might threaten their freedom', are now asking for OR talking about Muslim's empowerment.

    And here I took the socalled...... Bhagvadhari = Saffron party.
     
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  10. Nagraj

    Nagraj Regular Member

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    Ahhh forgive my laziness.
    i will expand my last two lines.
    For any country rule of religion is detrimental.
    most people including these pseudo secular realize that.
    Now since most of the secularists are hindu they realise this vis a vis hindutva parties as it directly affects them.
    they will oppose tooth nail if hindu educational institute comparable to madrsa were to be opened because these madarsa's don't really empower their own students. they will oppose it with full might how these institutes are not only detrimental to society but also to students.
    but when madrsa's are given state support they rationallise this by saying this is the one way of reach those backward students.
    suddenly forgetting all about the detrimental affect religious educational institution have on society and students.
    that attitude is not only lazy its also hypo critic.


    as for DFI secularism bachao mode i don't think they can do zilch if they refuse to talk about it
    so far they have been successful in creating more right wingers on both sides.
    as for me i was just trying to do doodh ka doodh and pani ka pani :)


     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2012
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  11. Nagraj

    Nagraj Regular Member

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    finally someone who had called a spade a spade i think.
     
  12. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Congress social engineering - CPM (Christian, Poor Hindus and Muslims). 2009 was an exceptional year in last 2 decades when party got large chunk of Urban/Middle-class vote. That's why party won 200+ seats after 1991 which was due to RajeevG assassination.

    Congress strategy :
    1> Communal politics so that Muslims can consolidate in favour of INC due to fear, insecurity, backwardness and TINA.
    2> Congress stands for short-term vote bank politics in order to gain support from poor like NREGA, Food Security, Subsidies, etc.
    3> Give few heavyweight position to Christians as they are not illiterate.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2012
  13. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Congress no. of seats in last 30 years!

    1984 - 404 (Due to IndiraG assassination)
    1989 - 197 (Due to split of vote between JD and BJP)
    1991 - 247 (Due to RajeevG assassination)
    1996 - 140
    1998 - 141
    1999 - 112
    2004 - 145
    2009 - 206 (Due to Urban/Middle-Class as party won 2/3rd urban seats for first time after BJP came into existence)


    In last 3 decades, Congress got 200+ seats only 3 times. 2 time due to assassination of RG and IG. 2009 was only exceptional case in last 30 years. Even the scenario of division between JD and BJP (1989) no longer exist as few are with BJP, few with Congress and few third front.

    If urban/middle-class India will not support Congress, How can Congress will win even 150 seats ? In addition, It is no longer strong in rural states like UP, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odissa, MP, etc.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2012
  14. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    News is coming, Congress is trying to make "SEX CD of Modi".....
     
  15. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    New Delhi: Shiv Sena mouthpiece ‘Saamna’ has made an explosive claim that the Congress is making a fake sex CD of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

    In a front page article in its July 18 edition, the Sena newspaper alleged that the Congress party is secretly putting together a task force to tarnish Modi’s image ahead of Assembly polls in Gujarat, due to be held in December this year.






    Terming it as Congress’ ‘dirty picture’, the article claimed that a Tamil actress and a Punjabi woman associated with the NDA have been roped into figure in the CD.

    They have been paid a huge sum of money to ‘disclose’ their close ‘relationship’ with Modi just ahead of the polls, the report said. The Tamil actress, who has already figured in two movies, has been provided a flat in Mumbai, while the Punjabi woman has been given keys to an apartment in Chandigarh.


    The Saamna claimed that a team comprising computer and digital experts is busy making the fake sex CD.


    Congress making Narendra Modi sex CD: Saamna
     
  16. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    People commenting on DivyaBhaskar site that, Congressi won't hesitate from putting their sisters, wives, mothers as opposite partner of modi in sex cd.And if you go through desperation of Gujarat congress than this statement might become true.....:rofl:
     
  17. skumar7777

    skumar7777 Regular Member

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    But Congress has one thing that others don't - EVMs.
     
  18. Predator

    Predator Regular Member

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    congress continues its fabanist policy of divide and rule

    they will not rest until all citizens have been reduced to a slave state

    its time congress party was disbanded as was wished by gandhi right after independence
     
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  19. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Congress is desperate to win Gujarat.

    1> Development/performance - Modi is head and shoulder ahead than any other state.

    2> Corruption - Congress is deeply rooted in corruption whereas Modi is honest and not a single case against him. In fact, Gujarat governor who is Congress stooge is involved in corruption.

    3> Leader - Congress doesn't have a single leader who can match Modi. Even futuristic PM candidate RahulG cannot. Congress CM candidate is himself Ex-RSS pracharak and lost parliament election in 2009.

    4> Caste based politics - Modi is himself OBC, Patels are flag-bearer of Hindutva, UC support Modi religiously. ST dominated South Gujarat is BJP unbeatable bastion.

    5> Muslim vote bank politics - It will back-fire as 91% are Hindus and Hindu polarization will cost congress.


    How Congress will defeat Modi ? :rolleyes:

    Congress can win only if BJP/RSS itself defeats Modi.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2012
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  20. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    I think, It's exaggerated. Not true.

    How Congress lost most of the local bodies election in last few months ?
     
  21. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Enlighten me, please. :hail:
     

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