Survey suggests BJP inching ahead as UPA loses sheen

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by iNDiAN.96, May 20, 2012.

  1. iNDiAN.96

    iNDiAN.96 Nationalist Senior Member

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    New Delhi: After eight years in power, the Congress-led coalition's pull seems to be diminishing. The result of the ABP News-Nielsen survey conducted on the eve of the UPA-II third anniversary has revealed it. While 32 per cent believed the government's performance was good or very good, a sizable 35 per cent rated the performance as average.

    Significant 21 per cent respondents said it was poor while 11 per cent rated the performance as very poor. The performance of UPA government has been rated slightly below average with a mean score 2.95, which is lower than the mean score of 3.22 last year.

    According to the survey, Gujarat chief minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi has emerged as the 'popular choice' for the post of Prime Minister beating Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who was the most preferred choice in 2011.

    As many as 17 per cent respondents favoured Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India according to a survey.


    As per the survey report, only 13 per cent wanted Rahul Gandhi to take over the top post. Modi on the contrary has improved his position. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh garnered 16 per cent of the votes.

    Manmohan scores high than his govt:
    However, Manmohan Singh's ratings are good with 37 per cent respondents saying his performance was good or very good. Another 33 per cent ranked him average, while 28 per cent believed his performance was poor or very poor.

    Around 32 per cent of the respondents felt that performance of UPA government is better or much better than its last term. A dip of 8 per cent is observed in the perception of people from last year survey, where 40 per cent of the respondents felt that the performance of UPA government is better than previous term. 39 per cent rated UPA performance as "about the same" this year, similar score in comparison to last year.

    Only 36 per cent of the respondents felt that performance of the PM is better than its last term. A dip of 8 per cent is noted in the perception of people from the last year survey, where 44 per cent of respondents said that the PM performed better than his previous term.

    What are Manmohan Singh's strengths and weaknesses?
    Around 38 per cent of the respondents felt that Manmohan Singh's clean personal image has been his biggest strength while 42 per cent of them believed that failure to act tough against ministers accused of corruption has been his biggest weakness.

    Corruption and price rise hit UPA-II hard:
    The UPA-II seems to be failing in the key parameters of governance. 25 per cent respondents wanted the government to take immediate steps to control corruption in the country while 24 per cent felt that the government should take steps to monitor rising food and petrol prices in the country. Immediate steps to control corruption and food inflation have been considered as the issues over which UPA government should immediately act upon.

    Focus on Naxalite/Maoist issue has been cited by 15 per cent of the respondents, this was mentioned by only 8 per cent during last year survey. Overall 33 per cent felt that policies of the UPA government are responsible for rising inflation in the country. Around 28 per cent believed that global economic conditions are responsible for rising inflation in the country. 29 per cent cited both these reasons for rise in inflation.

    Areas improved and deteriorated over the last three years:
    34 per cent of the respondents felt that there has been an improvement in medical facilities. Almost same number of the respondents felt that condition of roads has been improved.

    Around 69 per cent of the respondents felt that inflation and price rise is a key issue and 58 per cent believed that the level of corruption has increased.

    2G spectrum dents UPA's image:
    Majority of respondents (57 per cent) said that current UPA government is the most corrupt government of India post-Independence, and this figure has increased significantly as compared to previous year (45 per cent).

    54 percent of the respondents felt that 2G spectrum scam has impacted India's image as an investment destination. Only 10 per cent of the respondents believed that home minister P Chidambaram has not played any role in 2G scam whereas 30 per cent felt that he was equally involved as A Raja and 31 per cent said that he was involved only to some extent.

    A little more than one-third (36 per cent ) are aware of the fact that the UPA government had to put 51 per cent FDI in retail decision on hold due to opposition from various alliance partners and several state governments.

    Source
     
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  3. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    2years for general elections
    much more political manoeuvres to come:)

    will see who will win this time.
    wish bjp gives a good try
     
  4. iNDiAN.96

    iNDiAN.96 Nationalist Senior Member

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    Narendra Modi emerges as frontrunner for PM's post

    New Delhi: The result of the ABP News-Nielsen survey conducted on the eve of the UPA-II third anniversary has thrown up some surprises. 8,878 respondents across 28 cities took part in the survey.

    According to the survey, Gujarat chief minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi has emerged as the 'popular choice' for the post of Prime Minister beating Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who was the most preferred choice in 2011.

    As many as 17 per cent respondents favoured Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India according to a survey.

    As per the survey report, only 13 per cent wanted Rahul Gandhi to take over the top post. Modi on the contrary has improved his position. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh garnered 16 per cent of the votes.

    Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi. Photo: AFP.
    Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi. Photo: AFP.
    Congress president Sonia Gandhi is on the fourth spot with nine per cent votes. While BJP's senior leader Lal Krishna Advani is on the fifth position with six per cent of the votes.

    Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, leader of opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj, BJP chief Nitin Gadkari and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati have not even reached double-digit percentile points in the ABP News-Nielsen survey.

    When it comes to best leader in the country, Narendra Modi who was preferred at number four during last year survey (12 per cent), is ranked at number 1 (17 per cent) this year. Manmohan Singh, who is ranked at number 2 (16 per cent), was ranked at number 1 last year (21 per cent). Rahul Gandhi's scores have dipped from 19 per cent to 13 per cent this year. Sonia Gandhi's scores are down from 14 per cent to 9 per cent.

    Race for the next PM:
    Narendra Modi: 17
    Manmohan Singh: 16
    Rahul Gandhi: 13
    Sonia Gandhi: 09
    LK Advani: 06
    Nitish Kumar: 05
    Sushma Swaraj: 03
    Mayawati: 03
    Mamata Banerjee: 03
    Nitin Gadkari: 02
    Mulayam Singh Yadav: 02
    Jayalalithaa: 02
    M Karunanidhi: 02
    Akhilesh Singh Yadav: 02
    Pranab Mukherjee: 01
    Sharad Pawar: 01


    Narendra Modi emerges as frontrunner for PM's post
     
  5. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    irrelevant
    Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooold news.
     
  6. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    why the surveys mostly are done in cities
     
  7. iNDiAN.96

    iNDiAN.96 Nationalist Senior Member

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    Old news latest survey same results. :)
     
  8. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The common perception on the street is that UPA esp Congress will be absolutely mauled in the next elections.


    The survey suggests that Congress vote share will go down, and BJP's will substantially go up. One thing to note, even a small voting share difference can mean huge differences in seats won for eg in UP elections SP and BSP's voting share difference isn't as big as the difference in the seats won.

    ===

    NEW DELHI: As it completes three years of its second term in office, the Congress-led UPA is losing its sheen while rival BJP is nosing ahead, a survey has revealed. The survey, conducted across 28 cities in April-May, reveals BJP could get 28% of the vote if Lok Sabha elections are held now, while Congress would manage only 20%.

    According to the ABP News AC Nielsen survey, BJP has is slowly gaining as only 69% of those who voted for Congress in 2009 are still intending to vote for it. Thirty-one per cent are moving away from it and 12% of these respondents intend to vote BJP. Whereas for BJP, 84% of those who voted for it will stick with the party and only 2% of those leaving are switching to Congress.

    Price rise and corruption seem to have affected Congress. And on likely PMs, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi has 17% backing over Manmohan Singh at 16%. Modi was preferred at number four during last year's survey (12%). Singh was ranked at number one last year (21%). Rahul Gandhi's score has dipped from 19% to 13% this year. Sonia Gandhi's score is down from 14% to 9%.

    The findings suggest that BJP's upswing is still not robust although Congress's fortunes are declining. For the BJP, the dip of 8% in the Congress vote share is not a complete gain. The BJP is gaining only a marginal 1%. The remaining 7% dip in Congress vote share among these respondents is a gain for regional parties that tends to confirm the view that these parties will be crucial in the formation of the next government.

    Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ratings are good with 37% respondents saying his performance was good or very good. Another 33% ranked him average while 28% believed his performance was poor or very poor. So, he seems to be escaping to some extent the decline in Congress ratings.

    About 36% of respondents felt the PM's performance was better than its last term. A dip of 8% is noted in the perception of people from last year's survey, where 44% respondents said the PM performed better than his previous term.

    Around 32% of respondents felt the UPA government's performance was better or much better than its last term. A dip of 8% is observed in the perception of people from last year's survey, where 40% of respondents felt that the performance of UPA government is better than in the previous term. 39% rated UPA performance as "about the same" this year, similar score in comparison to last year.

    UPA-2 seems to be failing in the key parameters of governance. 25% respondents wanted the government to take immediate steps to control corruption while 24% felt the government should take steps to monitor rising food and petrol prices.

    Concern over Naxalism is growing and is cited by 15% of respondents, this was mentioned by only 8% during last year's survey.

    Majority of respondents (57%) said the UPA government was the most corrupt government post-independence, and this figure has increased significantly as compared to the previous year (45%).

    Around 54% of respondents felt that 2G spectrum scam has impacted India's image as an investment destination. Only 10% of respondents believed that home minister P Chidambaram has not played any role in 2G scam.

    UPA loses sheen as BJP inches ahead: Survey — timesofindia.indiatimes.com — Readability
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Interesting that Modi has 17% and MMS has 16%. The way we see on the Internet, one would feel that Modi has 99% support. After all the battering, MMS is still not doing that bad.
     
  10. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    It is more of a negative vote towards BJP rather than a positive vote towards BJP.
     
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  11. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well the NDA combine coming to power in 2014 is a given. Its basically an election that only the BJP can loose. The only concern would be the regional parties eating up into BJPs vote share.

    Does anyone have survey details on the major regional parties and the methodology for the survey?
     
  12. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    BJP and NDA combine is not going to win. It will be UPA 3, unfortunately. I see no progress on the NDA front to even believe they are a strong opposition.
     
  13. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    BJP should go alone and fight on all seats. If they fall short, look for willing people
     
  14. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    And I repeat, the internet is filled with upper caste Hindu's as is in this forum, which would imply they are educated, access to computer and high disposable income, all the while the lower caste, the congress power base is not online, because they are not educated nor are they rich. Tells you so much about the Indian Society.
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Exactly what i am trying to say. The internet is misleading.
     
  16. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Third Front supported by Congis to keep out `fascist-communal` forces is my prediction. Consider - Marathis after all the the farmer suicides and distress will vote for Saheb and Sonia, Andhra will vote son of the most corrupt Congi, UP wil vote SP or BSP goondas - that covers major states. Fence sitters/other regional parties such as DMK or AIADMK will support the winning horse. So, either UPA-III or ragtag Third Front.
     
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  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    We might as well drown ourselves in the Indian ocean than have third front. Last time, it was the worst phase in recent times.
     
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  18. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    If BJP goes alone then Modi ought to be the PM candidate, only then will it be helpful. If BJP goes along side the NDA, wont be surprised if Advani would still be looking out to be the PM.

    If this poll result does give some indication, BJP will have to again gobble up a huge alliance, and then the maya's, the mamta's, the jaya's will again keep taking them for a ride and in such an alliance it will be a miracle if Modi can create space for himself.

    It will be of interest to see if people again go along with the UPA's socialist programs, as they did the last time because UPA still has a lot of tricks up their hat, and we Indians love our freebies, just the way it happened the last time when there was no way the NDA was losing after the 26/11 terror attacks.
     
  19. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    TR, much as there was outrage against 26/11, may be it was confined to the urban upper and middle class. In that also some vote for socialist policies. I don't think anyone will win elections based on terrorism alone. Even in the US, 9/11 alone could not have won for Bush. He had to come up with other tricks to win a second term.
     
  20. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    The UPA socialist program is going on in one of my property,

    There are 40 men and women working in my property, which is nearly 5 acre. Clearing the whole property, I dont have to pay anything, though I make sure my staff gives them coffee and biscuits. While I am happy, they are saving me thousands of money in clearing my property, I wonder as I tax payer what do i get, They only work for 5 hours including lunch time, I am not very sure how much Panchyat pays them, but still people are being doled out money like we are simply printing it,


    It is important like in Kerala where we have a serious competitior to to Communist in the form of the Congress, the Congress needs a strong competitor in the Center, It has to be a situation where Congress and BJP comes to power every alternative years.
     
  21. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    Its not the same here, it is not right to compare a aware US population to a unaware Indian population.
     

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