Storm warning: China is headed for an epic hard landing

[LETHALFORCE]

Yes, They have to sooner or later.

It has reached a point where Americans do not have money to buy all wonderfully cheap chinese goods, thanks to the Govt.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

2008-09 was a down year for India in terms of SENSEX. But India was claiming 7.1% GDP growth.

India 2008: 7.1% GDP growth, BENSEX 50% loss;
China 2011: 9.1% GDP growth, SSE 16% loss.

As I said earlier Indian stock market is more sensitve to oil and energy prices. During the period you mentioned price of oil doubled. The growth costed a lot more.

 

[Galaxy]

@ CherrywoodHunter

Why you posting technical chart for Indian and Chinese market ?

There is no relation of economy and stock market on YoY basis.

Chinese and Indian market both had performed equally in past.

 

[ice berg]

really ??

Top 100 international brand and there is no Chinese product. Do you why ?? Why China failed to make something like LG or SAMSUNG. China is No. 1 in Auto sector, Still nothing like Mercedes, Hyundai, Toyota, Honda.

China is successful because of cheap products. But it has it's own limit and sooner or later, you will face Middle-Income trap. It's inevitable.

Funny you talk about LG and SAMSUNG. Where were them two decades ago? Hell, where were them one decade ago? See my point?

DO you even know what does China exports? Of course China will face the middle-income trap. Every SE Asia countries faced it. ALL of them moved from an export oriented one to a more consumer-based.

China may or may not make it. But it is foolish to think you know for sure the future of that country.

 

[ice berg]

@ CherrywoodHunter

Why you posting technical chart for Indian and Chinese market ?

There is no relation of economy and stock market on YoY basis.

Chinese and Indian market both had performed equally in past.

Tell that to your indian friend who like to play with charts.

 

[CherrywoodHunter]

@ CherrywoodHunter

Why you posting technical chart for Indian and Chinese market ?

There is no relation of economy and stock market on YoY basis.

Chinese and Indian market both had performed equally in past.

Nope I never said there is any fixed relation between stock index and GDP growth rate. Actually I am on your side. Then how about take back the claim that the 2011 China GDP growth rate number was made up because of the stock index drop?

 

[trackwhack]

Cherrywoodhunter. The SSE is down from 2852 in the first week of 2011, to 2190 in the last week of 2011. Is that a 16% decline? Is this the same way the CCP cooks its books?

Either way, the larger question is, why is it that among ALL major indices of the world, since 2008 crisis, only the SSE is down 60%, whereas every other Index is down between 15 and 20%. This is a fact. No twisting, no games.

CAN ANY CHINESE POSTER ANSWER THIS QUESTION?

 

[Galaxy]

Funny you talk about LG and SAMSUNG. Where were them two decades ago? Hell, where were them one decade ago? See my point?

DO you even know what does China exports? Of course China will face the middle-income trap. Every SE Asia countries faced it. ALL of them moved from an export oriented one to a more consumer-based.

China may or may not make it. But it is foolish to think you know for sure the future of that country.

Yes, I know. You can call me Astrologer if you wish.

China will be surely face big Middle-Income Trap.

LG and Samsung might be 2 decade old companies. But even Today, I don't see any Chinese product which can give competition to Top 50-100 international brand.

Chinese work on cheap wages 12 hours a day and can't buy a small cheap car after few years and Korean buys a high-end Mitsubishi Car after 1-2 years of work. China will be known for cheap products and i don't think anything will change.

Inflation is rising, Commodity prices will rise, Wages will rise, Food products will rise, Competition will rise - Quality remain same. Hence, inevitable Middle-Income trap.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

The 500% advance in the Chinese market that declined 60% is a loss of 300% of the gains of the bottom. what confidence is left after all the smart money have stampeded out the doors??

 

[Galaxy]

Nope I never said there is any fixed relation between stock index and GDP growth rate. Actually I am on your side. Then how about take back the claim that the 2011 China GDP growth rate number was made up because of the stock index drop?

As i said, There is no relation between GDP growth and Equity market performance.

GDP grows because of country's economy.

Equity Market grows because of Inflows + Earning no. of the companies which makes index. + Valuation.

Both are different thing. In very long term, Valuation do reaches as per economy.

 

[ice berg]

LG and Samsung might be 2 decade old companies. But even Today, I don't see any Chinese product which can give competition to Top 50-100 international brand.
.

You still havnt answered my question. What does China export? Look at what they export 10 years ago and what they export now.

That you cant see any chinese products which can give competition to Top 50 -100 int brands is your problem.

I can give you one name already. Huawei.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

As i said, There is no relation between GDP growth and Equity market performance.

GDP grows because of country's economy.

Equity Market grows because of Inflows + Earning no. of the companies which makes index. + Valuation.

Both are different thing. In very long term, Valuation do reaches as per economy.

Stock market is usually a leading indicator of the economy looking 6-12 months down the road.

 

[Galaxy]

You still havnt answered my question. What does China export? Look at what they export 10 years ago and what they export now.

That you cant see any chinese products which can give competition to Top 50 -100 int brands is your problem.

I can give you one name already. Huawei.

I heard the name Huawei 1st time in my life.

Now, You might say lenovo, But remember Lenovo is popular because of IBM.

 

[ice berg]

The 500% advance in the Chinese market that declined 60% is a loss of 300% of the gains of the bottom. what confidence is left after all the smart money have stampeded out the doors??

Greed is the key word. People will come back. They always do.:cool2:

I dont need to be an Astrologer to tell you this.

 

[ice berg]

I heard the name Huawei 1st time in my life.

Now, You might say lenovo, But remember Lenovo is popular because of IBM.

Obviously you are not in the ICT business....

I am honored that I am the first one telling you. You will hear more of them in the future, I am sure of that.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Greed is the key word. People will come back. They always do.:cool2:

I dont need to be an Astrologer to tell you this.

not like they did before the 500% move, compare volumes.

 

[Galaxy]

Stock market is usually a leading indicator of the economy looking 6-12 months down the road.

Yes, to certain extend.

Normally, Market moves before revival/bad phase of economy.

For example: In March,2009 there was expected news 2 American banks will go bankrupt soon. Market was at very danger level. But all of a sudden, Sensex Moved 9,000 to 16,000 in just 3 months.

Market moves 1st, Reason comes later !!

 

[ice berg]

You underestimate greed. People have short memory.

 

[CherrywoodHunter]

Cherrywoodhunter. The SSE is down from 2852 in the first week of 2011, to 2190 in the last week of 2011. Is that a 16% decline? Is this the same way the CCP cooks its books?

Either way, the larger question is, why is it that among ALL major indices of the world, since 2008 crisis, only the SSE is down 60%, whereas every other Index is down between 15 and 20%. This is a fact. No twisting, no games.


CAN ANY CHINESE POSTER ANSWER THIS QUESTION?

1. SSE chart Jan 2011 - Jan 2012:

http://ppt.cc/9RWc

2. Why should SSE behave in concert with other indices? SSE doubled in 2007 while the rest of the world didn't have major change.

 

[CherrywoodHunter]

As i said, There is no relation between GDP growth and Equity market performance.

GDP grows because of country's economy.

Equity Market grows because of Inflows + Earning no. of the companies which makes index. + Valuation.

Both are different thing. In very long term, Valuation do reaches as per economy.

Talk to LETHALFORCE please. He was saying, China had a stock index drop so the 9% growth is fake.
I appreciate your elaboration. As I said, I am on your side. XD