Storm warning: China is headed for an epic hard landing

Galaxy

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Incorrect Sir, :). It is the Hang Seng thats down 35% from the peak. Its a transparent market. The Shanghai SSE on the other hand is down 60% from its peak.
One can't compare Hang Seng with Shanghai Composite. Hang Seng always trade in premium because of Supply-Demand thesis. Shanghai market is not open for everyone. It's largely available only to domestic investors. The difference in premium is because China being a closed market whereas Hong Kong is a open economy. Even Scrips are not in same way. Hence, HS index fluctuates more as par with global market, FIIS large trade, commodity, Forex and other international economic developments.

NSE & BSE can't be compared with Hang Seng and Shanghai. It's only Hang Seng for international market participation.
 

sukhish

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Incorrect Sir, :). It is the Hang Seng thats down 35% from the peak. Its a transparent market. The Shanghai SSE on the other hand is down 60% from its peak.

the article paints a very true picture. export led model will fail. domestic consumption is only 35%, in india it is 60%. that's the key difference. how come people in china are not consuming. that points to the underconfidence of the economy. India is doing very well.
our desi people are much more confident than the chinease.
 

ice berg

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One can't compare Hang Seng with Shanghai Composite. Hang Seng always trade in premium because of Supply-Demand thesis. Shanghai market is not open for everyone. It's largely available only to domestic investors. The difference in premium is because China being a closed market whereas Hong Kong is a open economy. Even Scrips are not in same way. Hence, HS index fluctuates more as par with global market, FIIS large trade, commodity, Forex and other international economic developments.

NSE & BSE can't be compared with Hang Seng and Shanghai. It's only Hang Seng for international market participation.
Now now, let him play with his graphs.
 
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the article paints a very true picture. export led model will fail. domestic consumption is only 35%, in india it is 60%. that's the key difference. how come people in china are not consuming. that points to the underconfidence of the economy. India is doing very well.
our desi people are much more confident than the chinease.
India has never been an export oriented economy and even foreign investment was limited by the Govt. It was running on it's own growth and consumption and not dependent on investments,exports,currency and consumption in other countries. Another economy very similar to Indian economy is Brazil's economy.
 

ice berg

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The government is the market. You cant tell one way of another by looking at the stock market.
 

trackwhack

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Now now, let him play with his graphs.
I did not play with anything. I only plotted the Hang Seng and SSE from their respective peaks. I did not manipulate the data or twist it or make any inferences for anyone here. You are the one making retarded inferences and comments. And Galaxy made some irrelevant yet accurate observations on the different market types.
 

Galaxy

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Now now, let him play with his graphs.
Nothing wrong in Graph. It's fine.

But stock market doesn't work like this..... It's much more complicated. That's why only 10% makes money and 90% loses money. No matter which market !!
 
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The government is the market. You cant tell one way of another by looking at the stock market.
How does a stock market decline 60% and govt claims growth of 9% annually thru the decline?? Someone is cooking the books somewhere. This does not happen in transparent economies.
 

ice berg

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Galaxy

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How does a stock market decline 60% and govt claims growth of 9% annually thru the decline?? Someone is cooking the books somewhere. This does not happen in transparent economies.
Well let not be bias.

Our economy also grew 8% (+/-1%) in last 5 years. (2007-2012). But Sensex is at same level of 16,400.

There is no relation of Stock market with economy on year on year basis. Normally, Market rises too much and falls also in same way. For example, In 2007 & 2009 all stocks went 200%-300% Up. Market makes gains in 20% times and do time pass/Decline in remaining 80% times. If it would be so easy, Everyone will become rich. :)

But in long run, Stock market do reflects economy of the respective country.
 
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I dont buy the numbers either, But you cant tell just looking at the stock market.

Read more about the correlation between growth and stock market here:
http://faculty.washington.edu/karyiu/confer/beijing06/papers/men-li.pdf

Unlike someone else, I dont play with graphs.

The graphs give a clear picture. What the decline means is Foreigners pumped up the Chinese market then went short and made the domestic Chinese investors bagholders. Look at every single Chinese IPO that has been introduced last year in US market each one is down 60-90%
 

ice berg

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The graphs give a clear picture. What the decline means is Foreigners pumped up the Chinese market then went short and made the domestic Chinese investors bagholders. Look at every single Chinese IPO that has been introduced last year in US market each one is down 60-90%
There are limited foreign investors/assets in Shanghai, so your point isnt valid. Like I said before. Most is owned by the government. There are limited short options as well. The global economy is affecting it more.
 
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Well let not be bias.

Our economy also grew 8% (+/-1%) in last 5 years. (2007-2012). But Sensex is at same level of 16,400.

There is no relation of Stock market with economy on year on year basis. Normally, Market rises too much and falls also in same way. For example, In 2007 & 2009 all stocks went 200%-300% Up. Market makes gains in 20% times and do time pass/Decline in remaining 80% times. If it would be so easy, Everyone will become rich. :)

But in long run, Stock market do reflects economy of the respective country.
Stock market ups and downs have much more to do with sentiment and momentum than the economy in the short term. Whenever sentiment is positive or negative it usually does not change very fast. But in more mature markets a decline more than 20% is considered a bear market. Indian market is tied more to energy than Chinese market that is why I think it has not advanced?? Especially during the period of growth in India you mentioned the price of oil doubled.
 
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There are limited foreign investors/assets in Shanghai, so your point isnt valid. Like I said before. Most is owned by the government. There are limited short options as well.
If govt owns everything than it is not totally a free market??
 

SADAKHUSH

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These jealous ill-wishers can wait till their hair turns gray。:rofl:
It is not the jealousy but what goes on behind the door with in the state controlled Banks and industries is the reason for concern not only to the world but as well as should be of concern to every citizen of your country. Just look at the ghost cities with in China( You cannot deny the information ) and the recent layoffs in the coastal region based industries.

One example I will give you as experienced by stockholders of a company listed on Toronto Stock Exchange that was Sino Forest which cooked up the books about its forest land holding and the whole thing was exposed by a investor from West. I am sure there are more such entities with in China which have not been exposed as yet.
 
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It is not the jealousy but what goes on behind the door with in the state controlled Banks and industries is the reason for concern not only to the world but as well as should be of concern to every citizen of your country. Just look at the ghost cities with in China( You cannot deny the information ) and the recent layoffs in the coastal region based industries.

One example I will give you as experienced by stockholders of a company listed on Toronto Stock Exchange that was Sino Forest which cooked up the books about its forest land holding and the whole thing was exposed by a investor from West. I am sure there are more such entities with in China which have not been exposed as yet.
Much of the growth China claims is from an infrastructure buildout so many mineral and construction oriented companies are ripe for scams. The fraud is not so much the chinese companies but the chinese govt since they own the companies.
 

Armand2REP

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Truth about China

 
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