Stage set for Narendra Modi 2014

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Galaxy, May 27, 2012.

  1. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Stage set for Narendra Modi 2014

    May 27, 2012

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    Forget the sideshows that Sushma Swaraj or L. K. Advani may have put up in the film city this week. The political equivalent of a Bollywood blockbuster has just started rolling in the BJP.

    Casting directors in the saffron joint family, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), seem to have picked Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to be the man of the show. This is the moment of reckoning for the principal opposition party that has shown itself to be as clueless as the ruling coalition in the face of grave economic and political uncertainty. What transpired at the Mumbai meeting of the BJP this week was far more important than a Sanjay Joshi getting the sack or Swaraj and Advani missing a crucial meeting. It was a moment of transition - from a dithering, squabbling bunch of amateurs to disciplined soldiers forging columns behind the Leader.

    By letting Modi dictate terms to BJP president Nitin Gadkari in the matter of terminating Sanjay Joshi's services, the RSS has underlined the Gujarat CM's position in the party hierarchy. The Sangh rolled down the red carpet and Modi walked in like the conquering hero; overshadowing all other events and personalities. Even Nitin Gadkari managing a second term for himself was reduced to a non-event as the BJP's biggest trump card was finally revealed.

    It was clear in the rally that marked the conclusion of the party's crucial strategic session that the workers, at least, are overjoyed. Modi is the undisputed king, or "Gujarat Ka Sher (The Lion of Gujarat)", as the workers hailed him at the rally.

    There may or may not be an official announcement to this effect. Modi may continue to spearhead the BJP's campaign in the run- up to the general elections in 2014, unless the unthinkable happens and the Congress manages to defeat him in Gujarat assembly elections.

    The Sangh Parivar, meanwhile, has started the Great Game. Given their own experience with Modi in Gujarat and the latest Sanjay Joshi episode, the RSS naturally has first- hand experience in just how vindictive Modi can get. They are also aware of the fact that Modi is the biggest polarising factor in India. There is a near hundred per cent chance that the minority vote will consolidate behind the Congress if he is the PM candidate. But the Sangh also realises that none of the central leaders - Swaraj, Arun Jaitley or Rajnath Singh - have Modi's capacity to galvanise the party cadre. So, while he may polarise the minority vote, Modi also has the capacity to trigger reverse polarisation of the party faithful.

    This is not necessarily in Modi's capacity as the man under whose watch the 2002 anti-Muslim riots took place. For a large section of the urban middle class that moved away from the BJP in the last two general elections in favour of the more urbane/ educated Manmohan Singh, Modi has now come to symbolise delivery of services and corruption-free government. As the anti-corruption movements led by Ramdev and Anna Hazare have shown, this is a section that is currently clamouring for a change.

    They are willing to overlook, indeed in some instances even celebrate, the perception that Modi has "taught a lesson" to the Muslims. And he has topped this by remodelling himself as the "development man" i. e. Vikas Purush, an epithet once used for the tallest leader the BJP ever produced - Atal Behari Vajpayee.

    The RSS has been testing waters for Modi's anointment by first invading Hazare and Ramdev's movements. This was a process of assessing the disenchantment against the corruption-hit UPA in general and Manmohan Singh in particular for what is projected as his "weak" leadership. The conclusion clearly is that the time is ripe for providing the country with a truly strong alternative in the form of the strongman from Gujarat.

    Another question being asked in the context is - whether Modi will be acceptable to the allies, both present and potential. This is relevant presently only to the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The rest, be it Mayawati, Jayalalithaa or even Mamata Banerjee, there has never been any public aversion towards Modi. In fact, Jayalalithaa has actively sought Modi out on various occasions; offering him a famous 45-course meal at some point in her palatial residence at Poes Garden.

    But secularism is a shield that is wielded only when numbers are not with the BJP. Let us not forget that Nitish Kumar was the railway minister when bogeys of the Sabarmati Express were burnt at Godhra on February 27, 2002. Kumar did not visit the spot nor did he order a statutory enquiry into the incident.

    He had no issues in supporting Advani's projection as NDA's prime ministerial candidate, despite the leader's association with the demolition of the Babri Masjid.

    Naturally, both Nitish and the BJP understand alliances are all about numbers in the Lok Sabha. If Modi can rustle them up, political acceptability will automatically follow. The RSS seems to share the sentiment. They have clearly decided to take a chance with Modi. Because without him, there may not be a chance at all.

    Stage set for Narendra Modi '14 : - India Today
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
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  3. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    he is good leader he can help to gain votes but i mean but he is hard to accept in nda

    bjp can do without nda in 2014 election .
     
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  4. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    That is a big myth that he is not accepted.

    I heard a theory that there is this propaganda that some parties may not support NDA if Modi will be PM candidate of BJP. The proaganda says that there are many parties like BJD which can never go with Congress,but will not come to NDA either if Modi is leader.

    Aim of these propagandists leaders is to install some "pragmatic" leader as BJP face and prevent rise of Modi since he will prevent growth of NDA. These leaders are not outside BJP but within part like Swaraj and LKA. What matter is RSS and they have starting changing their stand in favor of Modi.

    Akali Dal, HJC, Shiv Sena, RPI, etc. already supported. Jaya, AGP & Patnaik also never opposed.

    So, Only problem is with Nitish. Why he doesn't leave BJP in Bihar? Even BJP state leadership demanded to break alliance with JD(u). The fact is Nitish cannot win without BJP. Bihar is not Odissa and he knows very well.

    If BJP wins 170-200 seats, All regional parties will come forward to support his candidature. If BJP fails to win 160-170 seats, Then all will gang-up to oppose him on the name of secularism and fascism and so on.

    Also, Party never promotes one leader but two. One Modi and second might be Swaraj as moderate face. (In 90's it was ABV as moderate face and LKA as Hindutva face). It's party strategy.
     
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  5. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Let Modi take a shot of PM, through BJP, time will tell what will happen.
     
  6. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    :confused:

    Narova kunjarova......?

    :D
     
  7. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    2014 will be a game changer
     
  8. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    There could be some merit in going with Modi. As it is in UP, WB, Assam Muslims do not vote for BJP, so if Modi is brought in the centre stage you could not go further down. On the other hand some of the core support base of the BJP, which had drifted away as the BJP had started to become a carbon copy of the Congress, will definitely come back.

    As things stand today 2014 elections is for BJP to wrap up or loose the opportunity.
     
  9. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    One thing is sure, Muslims will vote "en bloc" against BJP if Modi is projected as Prime-Minister. There is no doubt in that, No matter what Modi says or do. He gave so many tickets to Muslims in recent local bodies election. Most of them won too. But then many Muslims call them Saffron Muslim and say they don't represent Muslims.

    However, Muslims voting against BJP "en bloc" will be advantage for the party.

    If BJP won Lok Sabha seats like Bhopal, Lucknow, Katihar, Meerut, Azamgarh, Araria, Ahmedabad, Madhubani, Dharbhanga, Mangaldoi, Guwhati, Nawgong, Silchar, etc. where Muslims are 25%-40% and they voted against the party, What will it matter if on average 10% Muslims vote against the party on 350 odd seats ? In fact, Polarization against BJP will help party as Hindus will also polarize like it happened in past!

    There should not be any polarization but that depends on Muslims themselves.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
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  10. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    irrelevant

    q.f.t.....
     
  11. devgupt

    devgupt Regular Member

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    This caught my eye.:omg:
    Is she planning to kill him?
     
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  12. devgupt

    devgupt Regular Member

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    I am not sure about AGP.They fought with BJP in 2009 LS, but parted ways and both contested separately in 2011 Assembly elections, and are currently out of NDA.

    Some background on Patnaik. Just before 2009 LS counting , speculation was rife in Bhubaneswar that UPA will not get a majority and Patnaik had struck a deal with Congress. Shrikant Jena (Congess MP from Odisha) had brokered a deal between the two.But after the results were announced both the parties had got clear verdicts in their respective domains and the alliance never materialized.

    Patnaik will support Modi , or for that matter even Congress, if the price is right.

    BJP should promote both Modi & Swaraj. They appeal to different constituencies, like Vajpayee and Advani in 90's.
    The key would be UP. In 90's BJP used to win 50+ seats. Now it wins 10+.
    If Modi can revive BJP there(something around 30+), BJP has a good chance of reaching 200.
    The devil is really in numbers. Reach 200 - Modi becomes PM.Fall below 180(the BJP tally in 98,99) you have Sushma.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
  13. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Well, I have a different take on BJP. Party should forget all regional parties except 2-3 trusted allies like ShivSena, Akali Dal, etc. which are with BJP for 3-4 decades.

    If BJP will win around 180+ seats, Many regional parties will support Modi.
    If BJP will win around 160 or less no of seats, Everyone will oppose the Party by saying communal, fascists, extremist and God knows what not. Modi will have no chance in this scenario.

    So, Ultimately at the end what matters is How many seats party wins.

    BJP has strong presence on around 300 seats. Some presence on another 50-100 odd seats. If they win around 180-200+ of it + 30-40 MP's from trustworthy allies. Then it's done!!

    Party should focus more on how to win maximum seats rather wasting time to find more allies. They will come only when BJP is the only visible option. Why Patnaik or Jaylalitha will support BJP if party has only 140 odd MP ? Party should do what is in their hand.

    IMO, BJP should declare Modi as PM candidate after Gujarat assembly election by next winter and fight aggressively on 500 seats with electrifying campaign for a year. Let's people of the country decide. That is the best option for the party!
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
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  14. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    AGP doesn't have any other option. It will be with BJP. They are losing their strength in Assam and fighting independent means no gain. On 7 seats, BJP will support AGP and on remaining 7 seats, BJP has strong presence with or without AGP.

    As far as BJD is concerned. Just think about demographic of Odissa. Muslims are just 2%, Lowest in any big state. There is nothing called Muslim vote bank.

    Patnaik will not go with Congress because both are fighting against each other.

    But as you said (Patnaik will support Modi if the price is right and good opportunity)


    BJP always promote two leaders. My guess is Modi and Swaraj.

    Rest I agree with you.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
  15. Oracle

    Oracle New Member

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    Stage set for what?

    BJP should first take care of in-fighting. Which simply is not possible, since BJP is like the hydra of Indian Politics. Many heads, not a leader. And even if, the in-fighting is set aside, how can Modi garner majority of the votes, now that he's sitting on the pyre of 1000s of Muslims.
     
  16. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    I hope he doesn't turn liquor prohibition and vegetarianism on all of India.
     
  17. Oracle

    Oracle New Member

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    Look at his cheeks. He has liquor and meat written all over. Politicians!
     
  18. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Modi is the best bet for BJP in the current generation of leaders as no one else has a mass appeal or acceptance on his scale.

    But only the next Gujarat election will decide his fate. Nothing can be said before that.
     
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  19. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    They are state subjects!!! Do not worry.
     
  20. devgupt

    devgupt Regular Member

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    Which means democracy and individual voice is alive in BJP and their leaders are not zombies like Congress.

    Do all the republicans or democrats in US speak in same voice ?
    The only thing wrong with Indian political parties is that they haven't evolved a mechanism to deal with differing opinions in a transparent manner.
    In India there had been only 4 true national parties since Independence. Congress, Janata party,Janata Dal and Jana Sangh/BJP.

    The socialists destroyed themselves because of ego's.The Congress took the path of dynastic succession to keep alive.
    BJP, even with all the differences between its leaders has held together.


    Becuase everyone needs development.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2012
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  21. devgupt

    devgupt Regular Member

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    It was not introduced by Modi. They were introduced during Congress rule- because Gujarat is the birthplace of Mahatma.
     
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