Sri Lanka, BJP and AIADMK

Discussion in 'Subcontinent & Central Asia' started by HeinzGud, May 18, 2014.

  1. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    An Indian government led by Narendra Modi is now officially upon us and Sri Lanka has to take stock of the situation and weigh its options. The good news is that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has secured a landslide victory winning 339 seats in the 543 member Lok Sabha. The BJP on its own has won 282 seats, more than the 272 required for a simple majority in parliament.  As such the BJP is in a position to form a government even without its alliance partners. The best part of this good news is that Tamil Nadu’s contribution to the BJP victory is almost zero, with the BJP led Alliance in Tamil Nadu  winning only two Lok Sabha seats. The BJP has no truck with the major parties in Tamil Nadu with both the DMK and Jayalalitha’s AIADMK remaining aloof from the BJP. Sri Lanka’s ultimate nightmare would have been if Modi came into power with Jayalalitha as a partner in the BJP-led NDA. The nightmare would have turned into a fully fledged horror story if the BJP government had actually been dependent on Jayalalitha to keep the government going

    If by some misfortune, the Indian central government had been dependent on Tamil Nadu votes to remain in power, they would have been forced to obey Tamil Nadu diktat on a range of issues from the apportioning of the water of the Cavery river, raising the threshold for personal income tax, the pricing of fuel, the apportionment of electricity etctera. The AIADMK manifesto was in fact written on the expressly stated assumption that it would be a member of the coalition that governs at the centre. The AIADMK wanted greater devolution of power to the states and even to dislodge the preeminent position of Hindi as the only official language of India. The AIADMK even demanded that sovereign power be shared EQUALLY between the states and the centre. To make a long story short, neither the Congress nor the BJP could have ruled India with the AIADMK as a coalition partner given the range of issues that it intended dictating terms on. Furthermore, these are not just idle election promises – if the AIADMK helped prop up the government at the centre, they would have expected the centre to deliver so that the AIADMK could continue to tell the people of Tamil Nadu that they had got this or that done for the Tamil people. As time went on, and the anti-incumbency feeling in Tamil Nadu increased, Jayalalitha would have been making increasingly shrill demands from the central government in order to bolster her support back home.

    The BJP has managed to avoid a terrible fate by not being dependent on the AIADMK to form a government. What this means is that all of Jayalalitha’s plans have come a cropper. The very reason why she contested the election on her own without going into a partnership with any national political party was to have the maximum bargaining power to wring the maximum out of a central government. She did achieve one part of her goal which is to win almost all the seats in Tamil Nadu – she did win 37 out of 39 seats but even with such a victory, she now finds herself without any hold over the central government and has been reduced to expressing the hope that the BJP government which has been formed without her help will be friendly towards Tamil Nadu. So now we have a situation where for the first time since the late 1980s, where the Sri Lankan government can deal with an Indian central government which is independent of Tamil Nadu. Without the Tamil Nadu factor, the bilateral relationship between India and Sri Lanka can be like the relationship that should exist between two sovereign states. Now India need no longer vote against SL in the UNHRC, nor would it have to call for a UN supervised referendum in SL to form a separate Tamil state. 

    On the other hand, without China’s protection, there’s no telling what will happen to Sri Lanka with a rejuvenated and belligerent India on our doorstep. This is why this writer has been pressing for a defence pact with China or at the very least a JR-Rajiv style exchange of letters between the leaders of China and Sri Lanka setting out certain understandings. We all know that this is exactly the kind of thing that will really irritate Modi, but that should not deter us from exercising our sovereign right to deal with whatever party we may wish. Besides, though we know that Modi is independent of Tamil Nadu for the time being, how long will that last? We can give it five years at most until the next election.  The BJP’s victory is based on doing exceptionally well in a relatively small number of states. The BJP won all 26 seats in Gujerat, all 25 in Rajasthan, all seven in Delhi, all five in Uttarakhand, 71 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, 27 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, 12 out of 14 in Jaharkhand, seven out of 10 in Haryana, 41 out of the 48 seats in Maharashtra (along with its closest ally the Shiv Sena) and so on.

    There is even the danger of Modi trying to fulfill some of the Tamil Nadu demands relating to Sri Lanka to compensate for not being able to meet the demands made by Tamil Nadu in relation to domestic policy. We have to re-examine D.S.Senanayake’s policy towards India which was based entirely on containment and deterrence. In order to counterbalance Indian’s might, he entered into a mutual defence pact with Britain which also helped Britain by giving them a hold over Indian Ocean trade routes. But after 1956, S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike jettisoned that policy of deterrence and initiated a follow-the –leader policy. Under Bandaranaike, SL became basically a clone of India by adopting a foreign policy closer to the socialist bloc and a domestic policy of import substitution – just like India. This phase lasted for nearly two decades from 1956 to 1977 during which period it was the SLFP that ruled the country most of the time. Though the UNP ruled the country between 1965 to 1970, they were not able to make much of a change in things.

    What this shows is that the only policy towards India that will work in the long term is containment and deterrence. J.R. Jayewardene thought the Americans would ‘deter’ the Indians from intervening overtly in Sri Lanka but at that time, Sri Lanka was too unimportant in the larger scheme of things for the Americans to rub India on the wrong side. The Americans didn’t need a foothold in the Indian Ocean through SL. They already had Diago Garcia. So JRJ was left to his own devices and was forced to surrender to the Indians and to accept virtual vassal status. But today, we have a different situation where China is the rising power in the world and in order to reach super-power status China needs to ensure the security of its trade routes across the Indian Ocean which it cannot do without Sri Lanka. Likewise, the only hope that Sri Lanka has of preventing overt Indian intervention in Sri Lanka is the presence of China. A permanent defence arrangement between China and Sri Lanka will certainly be a source of disquiet and irritation to India, but then perhaps they should learn to live with it. The Indian central government should realize that because of the Tamil Nadu factor and the vagaries of Indian politics, Sri Lanka has no option but to seek the protection of powerful friends.

    The point would of course be to be in a position where no Indian government can dictate terms to Sri Lanka on anything. In the coming months and years, this is going to be a tall order in a situation where India now has a leader who is arguably more aggressive than Nehru but it will have to be done nevertheless. Sri Lanka can cooperate fully with India to prevent the infiltration of South India by Tamil speaking Muslim extremists and Tamil separatist terrorists as those issues are of concern to Sri Lanka as well. But beyond that, it should be strictly business and tourism that should define the relationship between India and Sri Lanka. Though it may irritate the Indians, the Chinese will be here to stay and the India will have to live with it. Some may argue that an India under Modi will never put up with a Sri Lanka that openly plays host to China right on its own doorstep. But the question is why would Modi not be able to put up with what happens in a sovereign neighbouring country when he has to put up with much worse in the domestic sphere?

    Besides the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka was already a reality by the time he assumed power and to force Sri Lanka to expel the Chinese would be interpreted as a hostile act by China which is also one of India’s neighbours. For India to tell one neighbour not to have anything to do with another one of its neighbours would be a ridiculous state of affairs. In any case the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka is not because the Chinese have any designs on India but only because of the need to protect its shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean – a perfectly legitimate aspiration. It’s not as if China is hoping to penetrate Indian territory from the South through Sri Lanka.  Perhaps the Indians should realize this and learn to ignore the Chinese presence in SL in exchange for SL’s full cooperation in preventing Islamic extremists from infiltrating South India – a task that SL should do with enthusiasm and relish. Indeed even the Chinese will cooperate in that sphere because Islamic extremism is a problem for China as well. So we are now looking at a new phase in India-SL relations where SL interacts with India not as a pushover client state but as a friendly sovereign neighbour with Chinese protection and strong business ties with India.

    Sri Lankans Should Exult Because Narendra Modi’s BJP Government is not Dependent on Tamil Nadu and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK Party. « dbsjeyaraj.com
     
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  3. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Good luck Lanka the world believes in you! :thumb:
     
  4. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Long walk Elite Member

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    It's Been always a doubt about Sri Lankan Chances .

    About ADMK Victory in TN ..It is Predicted as She did So many Good Things Compared to the DMK Group

    She Solved the Kaveri River issue ..The Mullai Periyar Issue ..Kudan Kulam Issue ..and So on

    Here all of the Tamils Voted infavour of Indian Stance About Sri Lanka

    The DMK and Congress did Nothing when Tamil Genocide Happens in Sri Lanka .They always stand with Rajapakshe even he is being pro Pakki and Pro Chinni

    we have Recent Examples too ..the Pakkis using Sri Lankan Soil to carry out Attacks in US Israeli Consulates in Chennai and Banglore ..Two of them arrested One in Chennai another one in Malasiya ..an TN Police Search possible Inflationary of Pakki Terrorists in TN

    The BJP and It;s allies won two seats Only ..First is BJP's wrong Allaince to that Actor Vijaya Kanth DMDK ..But he Managed to Back MDMK with him But MDMK too failed It's a Shock to Tamils How Mr.vaiko was failed .


    But Tamils Thinks That Jaya Will solve the Fishermen issuse ..
    But What I trust The New Indian PM will not give any peace papers to Sri Lanka If they attack once again Indian Fisherman
     
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  5. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Modi greets Jayalalithaa on AIADMK's victory in Lok Sabha elections, promises 'absolute cooperation' - The Times of India

    CHENNAI: A day after Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa wrote a letter congratulating Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi on BJP's landslide victory in the Lok Sabha elections, it was the turn of Modi to congratulate Jayalalithaa on her party's victory in the state.

    "Modi called up Jayalalithaa over phone on Sunday afternoon and congratulated her for the remarkable victory of her party in the Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu," said a statement issued by the government.

    "The chief minister wished him a very successful tenure as Prime Minister of India and Modi assured the chief minister that there will be absolute cooperation between the Government of India and the Tamil Nadu government," said the press release.

    In a letter to Modi on May 17, Jayalalithaa wrote: "I congratulate you on the magnificent victory in the 16th Lok Sabha elections. I wish you and the government under your stewardship the very best." The chief minister said she looked forward "to an era of meaningful cooperation" between the Centre and the state government.

    While the AIADMK chief and Modi are said to share cordial relations, with the two leaders attending the swearing-in ceremony of each other after winning the respective assembly elections in 2011 and 2012, the two parties had sparred in the last leg of the just-concluded Lok Sabha elections.

    Jayalalithaa, in particular, had claimed that her state was ahead in development index than Gujarat, which was countered by the saffron party's state unit. Modi had pitched the BJP-led NDA in Tamil Nadu as a 'viable alternative' to both the AIADMK and the DMK.
     
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  6. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Long walk Elite Member

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    Another interesting is ADMK has Plans to Join the NDA ..But Now It's not Need

    although it's all over TN roumerd that ADMK will Join with BJP


    More interesting is Before the Poll Count a Senior ADMK Member Malai Samy told to Press ADMK Plans to join BJP ..but a Surprise He was quickly Expelled from ADMK for his statements
     
  7. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    What's surprising in that? He violated Party's policy and he had been penalised! The mistake he had committed was, asserting surprising news before it was approved :D
     
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  8. Samar Rathi

    Samar Rathi Regular Member

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    Hmmm well Sri Lanka can do whatever he want and can invite any country for security purposes but let me remind you there is always reaction to any action taken by Lankan Government.

    We won't be taking lightly Chinese position in our south.
     
  9. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    Dear Sri Lankans, You under estimate us, Tamils...

    First, Tamils are Indians... We Tamils are citizens of Bharat from Day one...

    We have our differences within India... We oppose Hindi... We even sought for a separate nationhood after the Sub continent was liberated from the Colonialists...

    But we gave up that Nationhood dream after a Enemy of proportions in the Chinese invaded India... You know what, Bharat was once a sub continent and not a single political entity.. and was a open door for foreigners to invade and enslave... The legendary warrior Prithviraj Chauhan was defeated in 1192 and in matter of 120 Years, the ancient Capital city in Madurai was overrun... In a matter of 120 years India along its length and breadth has a new political order... But We have united ourselves through the blood we shed under alien rule...

    Coming to the present day differences among Indians, That difference is what Unites us... That Difference is what strengthens us...

    You can dream that a issue in Kavery river water sharing will cause a rift!!! God bless you poor chaps, Kavery will be a bone for contention for all the days that will dawn... No doubt about that... We have a constitution, we have our courts that mark a level playing field for every parties... We will resolve that issue in the Inter state Farmers conferences, in the Govt agreements, in the courts... That is our problem to solve and we will turn every stone to solve that issue...

    We Tamils opposed Hindi... Yes we still oppose... We held one of the largest opposition that Free India had seen... But that doesn't makes us lesser Indians or anti Indians, just as you dream to portray!!! Indians along the length and breath know How much Indians Tamils are... We fought hand in hand against the British... Be it the Non-Violence movements, the Non-Cooperation movements or the Military Engagements... My forefathers were there in blood and sweat!!!

    Ever heard of the greatest Indian Poet, Subramanya Bharati??? He is the greatest teacher for Modern Tamils... He dreamed of a United Bharat from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and he showed us how the United India will be... He says, "When a Indian in the Kashmir Sneezes, another Indian from Kanyakumari will run to him with medicines"!!! We Indians Live just the way He dreamed us to live... From sending our men to the battlefields, from the volunteers who dedicate themselves in case of any natural disasters, from the overwhelming donations that flow out from every Indians pockets whenever any Indian in any part of the country is in need, We Indians are brothers and Sisters!!!

    For the matter of fact, the Chief secretary of Tamil Nadu is a Malayalee!!! Can You imagine such a thing in the Tamil Nadu that you are portraying??? Hmmm... You can dream whatever you want!!!

    You Racists can escape justice... You can escape for years if not decades... But we Tamils will persevere, We will ensure that Justice is delivered to you in its undiluted form and we will ensure that Justice is delivered by Our India...
     
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  10. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Sri Lanka 'happy' Jayalalithaa lost clout in New Delhi - The Times of India

    COLOMBO: Sri Lanka on Monday said it is pleased that Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa has lost any bargaining power with the Narendra Modi government because of the majority BJP has on its own in the recently-concluded Lok Sabha polls.

    Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration was pleased that it could do business with the Centre without Tamil Nadu exercising undue influence, Lanka's media minister and government spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said.

    "A powerful government in Delhi is very good for us. Whatever the decision Centre takes, it will be without any undue influence from states like Tamil Nadu.

    "We are very happy that there is a very strong government and Prime Minister (-elect) Modi does not have to depend on any other party for his majority. This means even if Jayalalithaa had won 37 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, she would not be in a position to influence the Centre," Rambukwella told reporters here.

    He said Rajapaksa was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate Modi after his spectacular victory and said both leaders had "a lot of similarities" but did not elaborate.

    Modi had led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a massive victory in the general elections, with the party alone getting 282 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
     
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  11. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well China has secured the Indian south. India should now learn to live with.
     
  12. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yeah we lived with the same Tamilnadu and India for 1000s of years. We know you too. But the thing is we are not like you. We are independent and free. We kept it for the past 1000s of years and we will keep it for the coming years till our blood run dry.

    We don't care what you do in the Indian subcontinent. What we have to say is that just do not meddle with our things cuz we do not meddle with yours.

    And you talk about justice? First ensure the Sri Lanka Tamil refugees in Tamilnadu have there justice. Or else please send them home so they can be free.
     
  13. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    When did Chinese take India south? :shocked:

    Prez. Rajapaksa now in Shanghai CICA
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Samar Rathi

    Samar Rathi Regular Member

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    May i need to remind you geographically India and Sri Lanka will be here but i am not sure about Chinese bases so take every step carefully. If you will invite anti-India force in your country then it will get equal response in return.

    However i am not saying China is Anti India but no big power want another big power in their backyard as you see in Ukraine situation so good luck to you my Island friend.
     
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  15. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    China is in Sri Lanka right now. India has to learn to live with it. Or else the current situation will only get worsened. Not for Sri Lanka but for India.
     
  16. Samar Rathi

    Samar Rathi Regular Member

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    Whatever make you feel better so i suppose we will see what future hold for both country
     
  17. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Thanks to Tamil chauvinism & spinelessness of Indian leadership.
     
  18. TrueSpirit1

    TrueSpirit1 The Nobody Banned

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    Don't know about Rajapaksa but I am quite pleased at the election outcome...these two-penny regional parties should have no stake in central governance. Foreign policy of a nation of Indian's stature cannot be held hostage to whims, fancies & tantrums of shady characters like Jayalalitha, Karunanidhi & Mamta. Regional parties should be just that.....regional.

    Thankfully, no Bengali, Assamese or Tamil politician is going to enjoy any significant role in central leadership in our lifetime.
     
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  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    You seem to have forgotten Pranab Mukherjee, the President.

    and we are all breathing and kicking, I presume.

    I presume he is not a Mongoli. :)
     
  20. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    @HeinzGud

    It is true that teh South Indian parties will not be able to influence the decisions of the Central Govt, as they were doing before.

    However, to be pragmatic, it is not feasible to alienate the opinion of a sizeable part of the Indian population.

    There are genuine grouse in Tamilnadu over Sri Lankan atrocities and human right issues.

    The new Govt would do well to iron out these difference with the Sri Lankan govt amicably.

    Te flip side is that there are many ways how India can assert itself around the parts.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  21. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Sure, Delhi doesn't need Chennai's support, and Colombo should be happy about that; but trying to flaunt China won't help. Modi's engagement with Sri Lanka will depend on weeding out China from the region. Unless Colombo is willing to do that, the situation is unchanged between India and Sri Lanka. In fact, it's worse, because Modi has a shorter temper against shit like fishermen abduction and foreign influence, than the previous regime.

    China is in no position to defend Sri Lanka, if we decide to invade it. We set the terms in the 2,000-kilometer radius of Chennai, not China.

    The worst part for you, is that Chinese businesses love Modi. If he decides to do something against your country, Chinese businesses will throw their weight behind him.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2014
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