Spectre of Russia-China-Pakistan axis haunts Indian minds

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Indibomber, Sep 18, 2015.

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Who should be India's partner

  1. USA

    72.2%
  2. Russia

    27.8%
  1. Indibomber

    Indibomber Regular Member

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    spectre is haunting Indian minds — the spectre of a Russia-China-Pakistan ‘Axis’ directed against India’s security and vital interests. At least judging by local media comments and academic discourse one gets this impression.

    Of course, who doesn’t know about the ‘all-weather’ China-Pakistan relationship, but on this backdrop India’s old and time-tested friend Russia warming up to Pakistan has stolen the good night’s sleep of many strategists and analysts and caused a storm in the web based social media.

    The Russia-China-Pakistan axis bogey is generally raised in the Indian media by a powerful pro-American lobby, which is prodding the (Narendra) Modi government to jump on the US bandwagon in containing China and stop buying arms from Russia. But do they understand the costs of such policy for the common Indian?

    We get media reports daily about ‘cash-strapped’ Russia selling this or that lethal weapon to Pakistan, but so far only the report of selling 4-5 Mi-35M assault helicopters for anti-terror operations has been officially confirmed.

    During their recent Russia visits Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif evinced their interest in acquiring cutting-edge Russian weapons. There have been reports of Pakistan taking interest in buying Sukhoi Su-35 multirole state-of-the-art fighters, which has raised the BP of many strategic pundits in New Delhi.

    In this context I recall former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov’s book “Years in Big Politics” (original Russian title: Gody v Bolshoi Politike) published in 1999. Since the Soviet collapse Academician Primakov was chief of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) till his appointment as Foreign Minister in January 1996 by President Boris Yeltsin.

    He writes that in early 1990s Pakistan had requested for Sukhoi Su-27 fighters from Russia, which were the best warplane at that time. According to Primakov, the Russian Foreign Ministry (then headed by Andrei Kozyrev) had cleared the deal. However, the Kremlin referred it to SVR.

    “We asked the Pakistani side, do they have funds to buy the planes? They replied, yes, they have agreement with Saudi Arabia. We cross-checked through our channels and found it was not true. SVR established that it was a grand foreign plot to scuttle Russia’s military-technical cooperation with India,” former Russian Prime Minister Primakov wrote in his book.

    Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s recent statement on the sidelines of Arms Expo in Nizhny Tagil has caused alarm in India, forcing the Russian Embassy in New Delhi to issue a clear-cut statement reiterating that Moscow will never take any step ‘detrimental’ to the security and safety of its privileged strategic partner India. It described the furore in Indian media over the agency report as ‘over reaction’.

    So, what is the reality? My over three decades of experience of covering Russia has taught me never to depend on translation of the original Russian text, as the Russian language is so rich that one and the same word may have many meanings, depending on the context. So, I naturally went to the original agency copy in English, which caused euphoria in the Pakistani web community and despair in India.

    Mr. Ryabkov called Pakistan as Russia’s ‘nearest neighbour’ (geographically) and a partner looking for developing relations in not only in defence, but also in many spheres including energy. But the English translation of the same news story described Pakistan as Russia’s ‘closest partner’ in South Asia, which de facto questions the privileged strategic partnership with India.

    However, factually it is just not true, but explains the ‘over reaction’ of the Indian media. Perhaps, that’s why the Russian Embassy in New Delhi was forced to issue an unprecedented denial, reiterating Moscow’s commitment to the Strategic Partnership Declaration of 2000, where both Russia and India have taken obligations not to indulge into activities ‘detrimental’ to the security of other party.

    The Russia-Pakistan bogey was first raised after Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s November 2014 Islamabad visit, when the two countries signed a defence cooperation agreement. To be frank, such agreements are a common thing in the diplomatic practice of the nations formally not at war. So what? India also holds joint war games with the Chinese military. Not only this, for over a decade we have interacted with China at the highest level in the Russia-India-China triangle, is it an anti-Pakistan triangle?

    Moreover both New Delhi and Islamabad are in the process of joining the Russia-China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with the prime goal of combating terrorism, extremism and separatism – the problems of main concern for India. Pakistan will now have to prove its commitment to the common goal to other fellow members of this regional organisation.

    In view of the imminent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia sees Pakistan as a key player in its neighbourhood, which can play either a stabilising or destabilising role, in both cases a mechanism of interaction is a must. According to a former top general of Soviet General Staff, during their Afghan campaign the Soviets maintained constant contact with the Pakistani ISI.

    During their Afghan consultations, India and Russia have repeatedly agreed that Pakistan has a role in post-war dispensation in Afghanistan. Russian fears about extremist spill-over into the secular post-Soviet regimes of Central Asia, home to millions of ethnic Russians.

    If that is so, why should Moscow not adopt a pro-active stance in involving Islamabad in its own calculus? Even China is wary of ISIL spilling over to its Muslim-dominated Eastern Turkistan and is also adopting the complex economic strategy to engage Pakistan.

    What concerns Russia’s alliance with China, the developments here are logical continuation of their interaction over past decades and not the result of US-led Western sanctions over Ukraine. Gas and pipelines going to China are not new projects. What concerns Central Asia, objectively Russia and China are both rivals and partners and by joining SCO India also can play its positive role in the development of the region by partnering with Moscow, which unlike Chinese ‘One Road One Belt’ (OROB) project, wants to revive not only Silk Road, but all the ancient trade routes crisscrossing huge Eurasian land mass of former Soviet Union in all directions.

    As a responsible regional power with the ambitions of becoming global power, India should use the opportunities opening with Russia’s economic activities in our neighbourhood.
    Source:-
    http://in.rbth.com/blogs/the_flying...hina-pakistan-axis-haunts-indian-minds_408719

    It was Russia that stood between US/UK/Pak and India in 1971 neutralizing China, Iran, Turkey etc..
    Americans have never been "TRUE" friends of anyone and will ditch India. I wish India could milk the situation like pakis are.

    Thoughts?
     
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  3. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    India can balance both relations between both.

    This is where diplomacy comes into picture, because it is a complex world out there. Russia is a reliable friend !
     
  4. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    Media reports are for commoners and for news value and prime time.

    The Govts of sovereign states knows better through their diplomatic channels and spies.
     
  5. I_PLAY_BAD

    I_PLAY_BAD Regular Member

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    This axis cannot hurt India. This axis is directed at USA and its allies and compared to their power this axis is nothing. This is the present situation. In future it may change.

    So it is wise for India to refrain from a direct alliance with the US so that we effectively balance with this side and that side.That is what we have done correctly till our independence.
     
  6. The enlightened

    The enlightened Regular Member

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    A Russia openly hostile to India paves the way for India to openly join the US camp. So I am not going to be losing any sleep over this one.
     
  7. jackprince

    jackprince Turning into a frog Senior Member

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    I and anybody who have studied so called friendship of US of A will lose sleep over India being in US camp, more than losing Russia as a trusted ally. US holds the highest rating fucking uo its friends more than its enemies. Just see Pakistan. US will mot come to the relraionship as equal, as each and every policy makers there believes in unquestioned superiority of USA over anybody and everybody, hence India will either have compromise in policies, which definitely will screw yo any poitical party that gives in, or compramise in benefits it wishes to have from a potential ally or friend.

    So, my vote goes for trying to get Russia not to be a pal with Porkies.
     
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  8. The enlightened

    The enlightened Regular Member

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    How exactly has US fucked the Porkies? To the contrary the AL-Porkistan has fucked with the US.
     
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  9. I_PLAY_BAD

    I_PLAY_BAD Regular Member

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    You think so. In current world no bloody nation can fuck with the USA.
    Do you want me to lay some examples of the state of nations which fucked with the Americans?
    Here you go...

    1. USSR
    2. Iran
    3. Afghanistan (Not the state but the Taliban)
    4. Iraq
    5. Syria
    6. Pakistan (Why this is in this list is because US interference in Afghanistan drove a bunch of Taliban into Pakistan)
    7. Cuba
    8. Korea (Now divided into NK - communist, backed by USSR and SK - capitalist, backed by the USA)
     
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  10. The enlightened

    The enlightened Regular Member

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    It was meant in the context of 'back-stabbing' allies. Pakistan has been the back-staber here.
     
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  11. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

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    First of this is from the "blogs" section of the site.

    Russia has a few reasons to "normalize" relations with Pakistan from their old "hated for the Afghan war" status. It doesn't meant Russia is suddenly pro-Pakistan or anti-India and calling it an "axis" is ridiculous.

    India is likely to always buy some percentage of their weapons from Russia, as India's policy has always been to not be too dependent on any one source. Even a fraction of India's arms purchases will be far bigger than Pakistan's and so there is no reason to suspect from sort of desperate Russian need for the few rubles Pakistan might be able to scrape together.

    Americans are obsessed with their "with us or against us" mentality. India doesn't need to be insanely pro-USA it just needs to APPEAR that way to the average American. I recommend lots of flowery statements and press releases.

    What India needs to do is bide its time and grow economically above all else. Keep good relations with Russia, let China + Russia or China alone fight with the USA. We're not competing for superpower of the world.............. YET, so let them fight it out first.

    India needs to sort out the Pakistan problem first. Pakistan needs to either be brought on board (very unlikely) or rendered into a state in which it can never become an annoyance to India again. Sadly this probably means India needs to push hard for the implosion of Pakistan. Only after eliminating the thorn in our side, will India be truly free to run around the world playing global dominance games.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2015
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  12. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

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    I wish I could like your post 2, 3 more times. Honestly the USA gets too much of a bad reputation in India. The USA is actually very very simple to understand. The USA follows it's own national interests. Just find ways to be useful to the USA and it will never bite you. The USA is also HYPER paranoid about threats. It is very important to appear very friendly and a solid ally of the USA to the average American. This is quite easy as actions don't really have to match the flowery words said during press releases.

    People always claim the USA screws over their allies, but do they really? Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany, has the USA ever turned on their close allies? What happens to a nation when it becomes an American ally? Just look at Germany, South Korea, Japan, all helped out with the best weapons in the world, lots of economic support and aid money, all top of the line first world nations now. Not to mention that the USA is one of the very few nations in all the world that actually will go to war to support its allies, instead of just sending diplomatic support and aid goods.

    Allying with the USA is a HUGE opportunity that shouldn't be missed. Even if India was to become the most powerful nation on Earth, would Indians really want to run around South America or Europe policing the world? Hell no, sit back, ally with the Americans, let them deal with the BS and enjoy getting economically rich as India dominates all of South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2015
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  13. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Quoted for all eternity. :truestory:
     
  14. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

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    The point about the Yanks getting a bad rep in India when they have always, albeit brutally at times, followed their own self interest is well taken. Only, people who can't separate emotions from facts would feel that way.

    As for being hyper paranoid, well they are essentially allowing their majority race to become a minority and some are gleefully calling for it. While Mexicans are not anywhere near as dangerous as Islamists that the EU wants to on-board, there seems to be a sense of complacency in the Us establishment, or perhaps inevitability.

    True, though some implications of an Israel-Iran conflict could lead to very interesting situations for US post their Iran deal.

    Again, its not about helping allies, its about national interest. If the cost of helping an ally outweigh any benefits, no sane nation would provide said help. Where was Russian help in '62?

    Its not the citizens at large that want to rule or police the planet but the few actually in power.

    Though, I agree that US is a huge opportunity for India and we must proceed with both caution yet sincerity pursuant to our interests.

    Most of all, we might not like it but Russia and China will get closer still, India will have little choice but to move closer to the west.
     
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  15. indiatester

    indiatester Regular Member

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    Russia will not be hostile to India. There has been so much give and take between Indian and Russia (mostly give from Russia) that we Indians will not cause them any harm. Russia will not cause us any harm either.

    On the other hand, Pakistan has done enough damage to both USSR and Russia (Afghanistan and Chechnya) which Russia will not forget like the MSM or slogan happy people. We are just not in the know of the game that is being played out.
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    India is Russia 's second biggest trading partner and largest defense customer. If Russia wants to Change the status quo. It will be Russia's loss. Members need to remember Cold War Soviet Union and modern day Russia are not the same.
     
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  17. Shadow

    Shadow Regular Member

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    :rofl::pound:
    30 characters of shit
     
  18. The enlightened

    The enlightened Regular Member

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    Source?


    __________________________________
     
  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Let me clarify in Asia (under current sanctions from EU,Korea Japan and USA) Also includes arms sales in this number. Otherwise India foes not make top ten.

    India Russia arms trade maybe 13-15 billion annually

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-russia-sends-so-much-weaponry-to-india-2014-8

    Half of all arms exports

    And 15 billion energy and other trade
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2015
  20. Yumdoot

    Yumdoot Regular Member

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    The whole of Capital Budget for all three arms translates to about 14.35 Billion USD (budgeting being in Rupee) and translated at Rs. 65.87 to 1 USD today's mid-market rates.

    Obviously this includes payments for American stuff and Indigenous production also besides the Russian arms.

    Russians probably get paid not more than 3 billion USD at the most per year. And Russian GDP is like 1175 billion USD. So our payments account for about 0.25% of their GDP. This being the case when their defence budget is nearly twice ours. On top of that Russian GDP comprises of inelastic Oil demand. Kya karegi duniya, tail lena band kar degi?

    The 13 billion USD you see will be paid for in future at nearly similar vital ratios.

    I seriously doubt if Value of the Indian Arms market is what Russia thinks is valuable. Had that been the case, Americans would always be able to buy the whole Indian Arms Bazar alongwith the Budgeteer included for free. 3 billiion USD is chump change for US. They spend more than that on Afghanistan.

    I have seen this argument of Indians financing Russians but never seen any argument of Indians financing American (& by implication Paki arms) or French arms ( & by implication the wards of generali / kernali ).

    Now I wonder why must it be so?

    Paisa kaam nahi aata jahan survival aur growth main issue ho.

    Notice Aur is Hindi ka aur which is + and not English ka or.
     
  21. Sameet2

    Sameet2 Regular Member

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    what our cultural relation with america should too be looked upon russia just has political relation with india so as to fulfill there agenda like getting arms deal and support in world stage from india .
    Same goes USA but looking USA today all I can say we are economically rivalry from west and EU(we are BRICS) and in terms of defence we non aligned we should keep following the current trend of being friendly to each and every country in the world !
     

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