South India lags national fertility rate, slows population boom

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Vishwarupa, Mar 28, 2013.

  1. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2009
    Messages:
    2,030
    Likes Received:
    2,208
    South India lags national fertility rate, slows population boom - The Times of India

    BANGALORE: India's burgeoning population appears to be both a problem and an advantage. Very soon, the southern states are likely to stare at an un-Indian situation: a shrinking populace, owing to a sharp dip in the fertility rate of women.

    Analyzing the 2011 Census data, the Population Research Centre of the Bangalore-based Institute for Social and Economic Change found that many southern districts, a significant number of them in Karnataka, have recorded fertility rates lower than the national average. The study says turnaround will happen soon.

    Half of India's 1.21 billion population comprises women, and the national average fertility rate stands at 2.5, slightly higher than the targeted 2. The theory is simple: two children replace two parents, and the population remains stagnant.

    Experts say women in most southern states appear to be settling for one child, pulling down the average fertility rate.

    Karnataka's overall fertility rate stands at 2, but there's an interesting variation in the districts. In Udupi, for instance, the fertility rate is 1.2; in Hassan, Mandya and Chikmagalur, it's 1.4; in Dakshina Kannada and Kodagu, it's 1.5. Bangalore, at 1.7, is well below the national average. Some districts, though, have high fertility rates: Bijapur stands at 3, and Bidar at 2.7.

    The other South Indian states of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are in the sub-2 category.

    "Women are, perhaps, postponing marriage and, subsequently, childbirth. Many are increasingly settling for one child as they are socially and biologically past their prime by the time they give birth for the first time," said K S James, professor, Population Research Centre, who led the data analysis.

    SUDDEN DISARRAY

    What happens if the population shrinks? Arresting the spiralling population growth rate has always topped the nation's agenda. Experts, though, beg to differ. A sudden turnaround in population could lead to demographic disarray, they say. "The first result of negative population growth is the number of elderly people goes up and young people comes down. This means there are fewer youngsters to take care of our elderly," said Prof. K S James.





    WOMEN MAKE INFORMED CHOICE

    Experts say women make an informed choice to have a single child, given the high literacy level in the southern states.

    "Often, this is to give the lone child a good quality of life. Keeping in mind the high cost of living, young couples are increasingly settling for one child," said retired ISEC professor KNM Raju.

    With both men and women being educated, they make informed decisions. "The woman's decision today is well thought out, and she has her partner's support too," said Raju.

    The implication could be quite significant. If both partners in a marriage are themselves from single-child families, the responsibility of taking care of both sets of parents falls on them. "Parents these days are not dependent on their children financially. It's the psychological dependence which will be missed the most," Raju pointed out.

    Experts attribute this trend to the southern states being open to change. "It's their willingness to accept social changes that work for them," said Raju.

    NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE

    Unlike their southern counterparts, the northern states are showing an increase in fertility rate. The country is evenly poised, with half the country adhering to the national average and below, and the other half exceeding the figure.

    Experts point to high awareness and education levels and successful family planning programmes in the southern states for low fertility rate figures. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, though, have the highest fertility rates in the country, experts say
     
    Snuggy321 and bharata like this.
  2.  
  3. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2010
    Messages:
    6,207
    Likes Received:
    6,497
    While it is always heartening to see news of decreasing fertility rates, it is a dangerous trend to see such a massive difference in population growth among the BIMARU states and the Southern states. I think it is time to start a compulsory sterilization program for all citizens of the country who have two or more children. It is high time we did something like this.
     
  4. SLASH

    SLASH Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,156
    Likes Received:
    458
    Before that we need to see the correlation between high fertility rate and infant mortality rate. These Bimaru states also have the highest infant mortality rates and malnutrition. First we need to decrease the infant mortality rate which would encourage these poor chaps to make fewer babies.
     
    Singh likes this.
  5. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2010
    Messages:
    4,674
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    Location:
    Delhi, India, India
    Cowbelt needs to tighten their belt or langot or whatever. Contrast is not a good trend.
    A consistently constrained population growth throughtout the country, is the desired situation.
    Rather than enforcing reservation on private sector, GOI should be enforcing population control policies there.
    Anyone having more than two kids should not be eligible for a good job.
    Time for soft persuasion is gone. But we should be cautious about sudden drop or spike in population.
    Skewed age group ratios will dent our prospects in the coming decades; like they're going to hit China soon.

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
  6. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2010
    Messages:
    6,207
    Likes Received:
    6,497
    Yes, infant mortality needs to be taken into consideration certainly. But even accounting for IMR, I am sure the population growth rate of BIMARUs is higher. In any case, I am all for mandatory and forced population control in India.
     
  7. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2010
    Messages:
    8,008
    Likes Received:
    5,718
    Location:
    irrelevant
    This will undeniably lead to a demand to "restructure" the Parliament based on population.

    I hope the four southern states stay united in thwarting that demand which will primarily be ,made from cowbelt.
     
    bharata likes this.
  8. PredictablyMalicious

    PredictablyMalicious Punjabi Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,715
    Likes Received:
    636
    It's not about north or south. Even most north indian states have low fertility rates. J&K has lower than 2, as does Punjab
     
    Virendra likes this.
  9. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 23, 2011
    Messages:
    4,754
    Likes Received:
    3,273
    Location:
    Modindia
    UP: 3.7 :sucide:

    Forced sterilization is a little too extreme but all options should be kept on the table.
     
  10. Tolaha

    Tolaha Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2009
    Messages:
    2,158
    Likes Received:
    1,404
    Location:
    Bengaluru
    Udupi 1.2! :faint2:

    People of my place have low fertility. People of my religion have low fertility. People speaking my tongue have low fertility. The days of me and my ilk are numbered! :twitch:
     
    arnabmit likes this.
  11. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    A few issues.

    1. A very severe population divide is bad. And states with comparatively lower population would oppose the forthcoming reorganization/re-allocation of number of MP seats by population.

    This will have to be re-thought. Maybe its time to stop thinking in terms of population and maybe in terms of a matrix of economic progress, population, infant mortality, economic migration, birth rate etc.

    2. Lesser number of Children means more economic prosperity. How can you expect BIMARU states to have lesser number of children when more children for them means better survival (high infant mortality rate), and better economic chances ( one successful child would be enough to help the entire family).

    Maybe health and economic reforms, which would automatically force parents to have lesser children. Or some sort of assistance programs ? or some kind of punishment to those states with large population (via seat redistribution, and economic penalties?)
     
    Bangalorean likes this.
  12. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    It could also mean you guys are uber rich, have good health facilities, good health, and confidence in yourselves. Rest of the nation is jealous of you Dosas. :p
     
  13. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2010
    Messages:
    6,207
    Likes Received:
    6,497
    At the end of the day, economic progress will solve all problems. Yeah, I know I;m beating the same drum too often, but that is the whole truth. Growth and prosperity in the BIMARUs, and throughout the nation, is the need of the hour. At the moment, nothing matters to our nation like economic progress does. A single minded focus on growth and economy is what we need.

    Till the time our nation gets that collective vision, your "matrix" idea is a good interim solution.
     
  14. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2009
    Messages:
    5,326
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    North India needs Sanjay Gandhi
     
  15. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    In some states they have a minimum "nasbandi" numbers by district they need to hit. Guess whom they target ? The poorest, the infertile and the oldest.
     
  16. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2009
    Messages:
    5,326
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    Lets target by religion
     
  17. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    If we are being politically incorrect, then I think it would be more prudent to target by caste, no ?
    Uppercastes of all religions are generally richer, and have lesser offsprings.
     
    parijataka likes this.
  18. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,464
    Likes Received:
    578
    Location:
    Mumbai
    The real issues are female illiteracy/low education levels and low female employment (leading to lack of economic independence), poverty, lack of health awareness... these are all related. It so happens that Muslim communities have the most of all these and therefore high fertility rate too. If you survey middle class Muslim communities, the fertility rate is fairly low.. for eg in Kerala.
    So religion per se is not the problem. The best way to tackle this is through health awareness, female literacy/education, poverty alleviation etc.
     
    Singh likes this.
  19. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,464
    Likes Received:
    578
    Location:
    Mumbai
    Maybe all men are so much into making dosas and upma in other states, they have misplaced the baby-making recipe!!
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2013
    Singh likes this.
  20. tramp

    tramp Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,464
    Likes Received:
    578
    Location:
    Mumbai
    That requires increased health awareness, higher female literacy/education etc.. and also increased healthcare facilities. the fertility is also related to increase in women's employment and consequent economic independence.
     
  21. bharata

    bharata Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2013
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    10
    Location:
    Forum
    A.P and Kerala=1.8
    T.N=1.7
    Karnataka=2
    Karnataka atleast got replacement number .
     

Share This Page