Something else made in China – Chinese GDP

[DMF]

Meh..

China's working population is going to drop as more people go into retirement and less people enter it (1 child policy and gender imbalance).

China's ability to continue to provide cheap goods will be lost as labour prices increase.

YES, China's one child policy will reduce the population, the work force will reduce, for example, this policy already goes for about 30years, especially in big cities, this rule very strict, so today, a new baby, his mother and father are most likely to be the only child of his grand parents, when this baby grow up, his two grand parents from his mather and father,will most likely left two apartment houses to him, one square meter worth more than USD3000 in big cites of China, this boy will be very rich, not need to work. But this is not the trouble for the country, the whole Europe with low birth rate, still have many people unemployed. In future, china will not work as the unskilled labour, better for India and Vietnam. and why China must do the hard labour to produce cheap goods for other country?????????

 

[LETHALFORCE]

China's PPP is not on par with western countries. Chinese will have to continue exports or the economic and housing bubbles will both burst.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

 

[LETHALFORCE]

China won't pass the U.S. anytime soon | Prestowitz

China won't pass the U.S. anytime soon

 

[DMF]

1) Real growth, do you consider China's growth REAL? It is like nothing but construction and empty buildings here. You look out the window at night and only see half the lights on in some, and others almost dark. You come in by air and a tier 1 city (GZ) looks darker than a small US or European city. Most people are living off 600 RMB a month around here when my expenses are 6000 RMB, and I am trying to live cheap. I thought there would be big middle class but it is very little, you are either rich or poor.

2) As far as inflation, price rises every week. You know it is like 8-9% in the real terms.
"Most people are living off 600 RMB a month around here",
3) RMB won't appreciate far... too many business to go out of order.

"Most people are living off 600 RMB a month around here", yes, Chinese are very poor, but the USA need China to buy their printed papers such as national debt and stock certificates, China will sure to loos by this way.now some European countries join in also need help. The people in these developed countries have a salary 20times or more than the poor Chinese,also have many social welfares, they complaining the poor Chinese steal their jobs, not like to see the poor Chinese to make this RMB 600 per month, also these countries keep a huge deposit of gold in their own coffers, to mind you, they have a "coordinating committee for export control", any high technology things are not allowed to sell to China, some machines one year sell one piece to China, keep it at the agreed place and make civilian products only, you can not move it, and can not make any thing for the military. And it's very difficult for a Chinese company to take over a American company in the US. China is regarded as not a market economy, so they can force the poor Chinese out of RMB600 jobs any time by the import barrier. What a shame. These developed free countries, are free to do any thing they like, and expecting China to fall down, when the Arabs begin the "jasmine revolution", on the internet I read one article which says China start this revolution also, with a photo showing big group a Chinese people holding placards, but you looking the Chinese written on the banner, you find out it's the factories around the trains station recruiting workers, March is the month the migration workers just finish the Chinese new year and return to the costal area to earn the RMB600.

 

[DMF]

China won't pass the U.S. anytime soon | Prestowitz

China won't pass the U.S. anytime soon

China can not pass the US, because China has a very big population, the resources are limited, also the US Dollar is the reserve currency for the world, the USA is a immigration country with the best education system. China can narrow the gap, but very difficult to pass.
But for the GDP, the statistics can never be correct. For example, china have a value added tax of 17%,levied on every product out of all the factories, factory sell any goods, must go to pay the this 17% and get one tax invoice issued. but if you export the goods, the exporter can get this tax back from the government, this need: the factory issue this government printed tax invoice to the exporters, the declaration paper from to the Customs, and paper from the bank to show you received payment(foreign currency). 6 years ago, the government return all this 17% to the exporter, some exporters export less than declared to the customs, make fake tax invoices, and with many other tricks to cheat the government for this 17% tax return. But now the tax return reduced to 5%, 9% or 13% according to the category of the goods exported, also because of computer net work, you can not get more tax from the government than you have paid. Exporter begin to declare to the customs less than they really export now, because many small factory can not or have big trouble to issue this tax invoice, so the factory sell the goods to exporter without pay tax( a crime), , the factory not pay this tax, the cost of this goods reduces about 10%, accordingly the factory sell this goods 10% cheaper to the exporter, the exporter can't get tax return and also have a lot of trouble to handle this situation when export the goods. Goods without this tax invoice can not export, you must put other goods which have paid tax together in one container, when declare to the customs, not mention the goods without the invoice, only show the goods already paid tax, the exporting containers are inspected by the customs by chance, not like the imported containers which are checked each one, you chance more than 80% to export goods without trouble, but if not lucky your container checked, you pay fine for smuggle goods out of China. Some times, with the goods only have 5% tax return, the export not like the factory to issue the invoice, prefer 10% discount, and take the trouble to play with the Customs, so the statistics from the Customs never real, all this kind of situation happen in all the economic fields, the calculated GDP never accurate.

 

[cir]

China's PPP is not on par with western countries. Chinese will have to continue exports or the economic and housing bubbles will both burst.

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) | Data | Table

It will take China quite a long time to pass the US in per capita terms.

As for the total economic output, 2017 is when China's GDP surpasses the US'.

Why?

2011 will see China's GDP reach $7.4-7.5 trillion, using year-end market exchange rates.

2012 will see China's GDP pass the $9 trillion mark.

2013 $10.5 trillion; 2014 12; 2015 13.2; 2016 15; 2017 17.5.

I have conservatively factored in real growth of 8%, nominal growth of 13% and annual RMB appreciation vs dollar of 2-3% after 2012,

Time flies. You lot won't have to wait long to see the day.

The US is still yet to scale the peak reached in 2007, some $14.6 trillion.

 

[DMF]

Sorry, indian friends, chinese make too many fraud things, even their GDP, so don't even care about that, just let chinese play with their own shit. Indian now is the third or fourth large economic nation, and with the highest increasing rate 9%? forget chinese cooked rate 10%, that just shit, I believe India will be the No. 1 around 2025, I have already warned my american collegue to pay attention on India, not China!! India is the only county has possibility to overstep USA. China is dictatorship nation, no real future, nobody need waste time to care China.

Haha please not get so excited, India is the only country to pass the USA, this is the sweet wet dream, also many Chinese have this sweet dream. your potential very big, but just face the realities at this moment. Both us still very poor countries, for example, there are a lot of beggars in both our countries, Just look at the beggars in China's street, they are mostly from Fuyang of Anhui province, and Taikang of Henan province, all from the underdeveloped midland of the country, they all have a house back at their village or in their small town, their farm land very small, can not make a good life out of it, and they are too old to find jobs in the costal factory, and when they were young they have begged, You know, since the Mao established the commi China, the land owner lost every thing, many their lives, the one who still alive in the countryside, work for the commune, and have your "hukou", a certificate of exist, in the village, you belong to the village, you have a piece of land on it to make a house, by mud or brick as you can, the commune give harvest to the government and left little for the villagers, people very poor, in the 1960's and 70', some time they stave, they go to knock at the doors begging for food, they accept any left over. But after Mao died, the commune bust, the land distributed to everyone in the village, the land for use only, the owner is the great China, so every villager have a piece of farm land until you died, you can not mortgage this land to bank to get a loan, or sell it to any body, you get cursed to it, you have to pay agriculture tax to the government until the year 2003, now the government only give you little subsidies according to the size of your farm land, the land very small, because the people too much, and most of China land are mountains or desert, in most the case by farm you can not make a fortune , so many people work in factory as assembly line labors in the developed east coastal cities, some of the old go out as beggars. A beggar only do the trade by herself can only make MRB2000 to 3000 per month, they share a rented room near the suburb, you know in China you can not make a slum by your self, and also no body sleep in the street, and you at lest have your break fast and lunch eat at restaurant, the CPI very high as you know, the begging cost much higher than in India, you have to live off RMB600 a month around here. So many beggars forced to be vicious, they rent the disabled and small children to win sympathy, if you rent a blind man who happen to be able to sing karaoke with a CD audio, the income can get tripled, but at risk of being punished by the government if this case are reported, some beggar rent small girls for this trade, so when you visit China, please don't give money to the crippled or the blind, their beggar boss are watching them from some where, if you see small child begging, report to the police. Both of us two countries have lot of problems to deal with like this, I hear about that there are more poor people in India than in China, please you first make india better than china, then talking about become the No. 1 of the world

 

[Singh]

China's Puzzling Numbers - WSJ.com
​

No one doubts that China is an important driver of global growth, with a major impact on the financial markets. But many observers doubt that China's economic data can be trusted.

In his new book, "Understanding China's Economic Indicators," The Wall Street Journal's Beijing-based columnist Tom Orlik guides readers through data on everything from gross domestic product to bond market yield curves.

The following excerpt explains the political and technical challenges facing statisticians measuring the size and growth rate of the world's second largest economy after the U.S.:

In 1998, the Asian Financial Crisis brought the region's economy grinding to a halt. A closed capital account protected China from the speculative attacks that crippled Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea. But with major trade partners sliding into recession, China was not immune to the effects. Falling growth in energy consumption, airline passenger numbers, and imports all pointed to a sharp slowdown in growth. But if the economy was indeed sliding into recession, it was not evident to the National Bureau of Statistics. Official data for the year shows GDP growth of 7.8%, down only slightly from 8.8% in 1997 and within spitting distance of the magic 8% that is believed to be the minimum required to maintain social stability in China.

The 1998 GDP data has generated a storm of controversy. Academic economists have expended much energy in either defending the NBS calculation or, more common, attacking it and offering their own alternative estimates. Professor Harry Wu of Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo and the late Professor Angus Maddison were among the most stern, concluding on the basis of their own index of industrial production that China's GDP grew just 0.3% in 1998 (minus-0.1% in Professor Wu's recent updated results). Professor Carsten Holz of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology has weighed in forcefully on the other side, concluding that although there are inherent difficulties with calculating the GDP of a large and rapidly developing economy, it is difficult to identify systematic biases in the NBS data or to arrive at compelling alternative estimates.

The government has never admitted any problem with the data. Indeed, in a revision to the historical GDP data as a result of the 2004 Economic Census, the 1998 figure was the only one that was left untouched. But it has come close. The story that has trickled out in speeches and articles in the official press points the finger of blame at an excess of enthusiasm from local officials. Caught between the reality of an economy in crisis and the dream of career progression that depends on delivering growth hitting the 8% mark, officials engaged in rampant falsification of production data. Premier Zhu Rongji spoke of a 'wind of embellishment and falsification' that swept through the statistical system. An article in the NBS in-house magazine, Economics Education, even developed a game theory model to explain how exaggeration by one official could trigger a wave of exaggeration by other officials, a kind of Chinese bureaucratic version of keeping up with the Joneses.

In the years that have followed, controls on local statistics offices have been improved, more data is reported directly to the NBS headquarters in Beijing (bypassing the embellishing hand of local leaders), and more surveys and other checks on the accuracy of data collected at a local level are now conducted. These checks and balances have freed the national-level data from the impact of local exaggeration—or 'adding water,' as it is called in China.

But local-level GDP data, especially for more backward provinces, remains deeply unreliable. In the Wikileaks scandal that broke at the end of 2010, it was revealed that even China's premier-in-waiting, Li Keqiang, had little faith in the provincial GDP data. Speaking to the U.S. ambassador in 2007, when he was still party secretary of Liaoning province, Li said that the data was 'man-made' and, therefore, unreliable. To keep a handle on the growth rate of the Liaoning economy, he relied on tracking electricity consumption, rail cargo volume, and bank lending.

But lying local officials aren't always the problem with China's official growth data, and the NBS doesn't always err on the upside. As a second episode in the troubled history of China's GDP calculation shows, the sheer size and complexity of the Chinese economy can also defeat the statisticians, and the official numbers can understate the true size of the economy.

In 2004, China conducted an Economic Census, including a thoroughgoing attempt to get to grips with one of the most slippery parts of the economy: the services sector. With legions of statisticians on the ground in street-side cafes, foreign-language schools, and IT support centers, the NBS was able to get a more accurate gauge of the total output of this important but overlooked sector of the economy.

The result was an upward revision of GDP for 2004 of a whopping 2.3 trillion yuan ($360 billion), adding 16.8% to the size of the Chinese economy. How could the regular annual accounting exercise have overlooked such a large chunk of China's output? Part of the reason is that the services sector is made up of many small enterprises and informal operations. Adding up the output of a million local hairdressers, half of them with no accounting ledger and half with a ledger that conceals as much as it reveals, is a bigger challenge than taking stock of the output of the big modern firms that dominate the industrial sector.

But that's not the entire story.

The NBS now uses the United Nation's approved System of National Accounts as the basis for calculating GDP. But in the early reform era, the Material Product System, borrowed from the old U.S.S.R., was employed. As might be expected from a scheme devised in Soviet Russia, the Material Product System is rather good at measuring physical outputs (the tons of steel and cement valued by central planners) and less good at measuring the intangibles produced by the services sector. Some of the biases in the old system linger in the new, and that's another reason the NBS missed such a large volume of services output.

After the embarrassment of the 2004 census, the NBS made a serious attempt to overcome the deficiencies of its coverage of the services sector. New service sector industries, accounting for most of the output that was missed in the years before the census, were brought into the fold of the annual survey. But counting the output of a rapidly evolving services sector remains a challenge for China's statisticians. In 2008, the next round of the Economic Census discovered another 1.3 trillion yuan in GDP that had previously been overlooked, adding 4.4% to the estimated size of the Chinese economy. Once again, the lion's share of the addition came from the services sector. A 4.4% addition to GDP in 2008 is considerably smaller than the 16.8% addition in 2004; the NBS is getting better at counting service sector output. But undercounting the services sector remains the most serious methodological problem for China's national accounts.

Suspicions about the reliability of China's data continue to focus on lying officials 'adding water' to bias the GDP numbers upward. But the more real risk is that that a large chunk of a rapidly changing economy has again been overlooked by the statisticians, and the official data understates the true size of the Chinese economy."

China's Puzzling Numbers - WSJ.com

 

[huaxia rox]

Considering China had opened it's economy to the west 15 years before India, their poverty decrease started 15 years before India's.
So? What's your big point?

rite and according to ur theory chinese gov should also tell chinese people that the US opened up its economy 100 years before pRC's...their poverty decrease started 100 years before PRC's........so chinese people should just chill out and stop blaming the gov.........

has to be the most lousy argument i can ever come across i guess.........

 

[blueblood]

There is no greater threat to India economically and territorially than China. A war has been fought taking sovereign Indian lands and every year they creep further and further while GOI plays Hindi Chini Bai Bai. India is flooded with illegal goods and shoddy workmanship which kill local industry and people in the process. It also supports the pariah states that surround India, namely the failed states of Pakistan and Burma. She also hosts Maoist training centres and arms the rebellion to destabalise India. It is time to open India's eyes!

China does not train or support any kind of insurgency in India. In the same way, India has nothing to do with the Tibet unrest. On the other hand many Indian communist parties are China's lap dogs. Several activists and NGOs also work for China and other institutions like IMF.

Since India is a free economy, they can dump as much goods as they can. Its the job of the government and individuals to come with better solutions. Since you are French, look up License Raj on google and see how things were screwed up because of lack of competition.

India too has friendly relations with Burma for the sake of natural resources. Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai era is long gone and Nehru died traumatized. The current GOI is simply too sh!ty, nothing more than that.

 

[SLASH]

China does not train or support any kind of insurgency in India. In the same way, India has nothing to do with the Tibet unrest. On the other hand many Indian communist parties are China's lap dogs. Several activists and NGOs also work for China and other institutions like IMF.

Since India is a free economy, they can dump as much goods as they can. Its the job of the government and individuals to come with better solutions. Since you are French, look up License Raj on google and see how things were screwed up because of lack of competition.

India too has friendly relations with Burma for the sake of natural resources. Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai era is long gone and Nehru died traumatized. The current GOI is simply too sh!ty, nothing more than that.

The government puts anti-dumping duty on many Chinese goods. A better way to deal with cheap and inferior product is to have third party verification of their products to check whether the products are as good as Indian standards. Even countries like Nigeria have SONCAP.

In India cheap products are mainly made by smaller manufacturers, while bigger manufacturers cater to all segments except the lower segment. In China, most of the manufacturers (small, big and huge) make cheap products which hurts our local small manufacturing firms.

 

[SLASH]

The Chinese one child policy is quite dangerous to their growth. I know of this one Chinese fellow who has to look after his parents, both his wife's parents, his wife and their child. How is the house hold supposed to survive? Over next 20 years more and more house holds will be facing this demographic problem.

But one must commend the Chinese to look at the bigger picture. Even though their method was barbaric the idea of population control was a good one.

Just imagine the population of China without the one child policy.

 

[Iamanidiot]

The Chinese one child policy is quite dangerous to their growth. I know of this one Chinese fellow who has to look after his parents, both his wife's parents, his wife and their child. How is the house hold supposed to survive? Over next 20 years more and more house holds will be facing this demographic problem.

But one must commend the Chinese to look at the bigger picture. Even though their method was barbaric the idea of population control was a good one.

Just imagine the population of China without the one child policy.

Only child means it will be a lot of pressure on the girl child

 

[blueblood]

The government puts anti-dumping duty on many Chinese goods. A better way to deal with cheap and inferior product is to have third party verification of their products to check whether the products are as good as Indian standards. Even countries like Nigeria have SONCAP.

In India cheap products are mainly made by smaller manufacturers, while bigger manufacturers cater to all segments except the lower segment. In China, most of the manufacturers (small, big and huge) make cheap products which hurts our local small manufacturing firms.

Yes, and chanting crush China, crush China is not going to resolve anything. As a consumer if I get a cheap and working Chinese goods, then I am not sure that I will go for the expensive Indian product. Cheap Indian products suck too.

In India you can get tax benefits for making bricks and pottery but government will tax you more if you open up an animation firm or make simple transistors. If people and the government think that by making bricks and producing cheap potatoes we can be ahead of China, then God help them.

 

[DMF]

State revenue for the first 8 months of this year exceeded RMB7.4286 trillion, a increase of 30.9% compared to the same period of last year, and for the whole 2011, will surpass RMB10 trillion.
Now it time to reduce tax in China. Rich government and poor people.