Solving the Pakistani Imbroglio

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Ray, Aug 8, 2013.

  1. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Deal with the real power: The Pakistan army rather than the political establishment could deliver better results

    Pravin Swahney

    The killing of five Indian soldiers near the Line of Control (LoC) was undoubtedly the handiwork of the Pakistan army, without the knowledge of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. So what should India do?

    India should know that normalisation of relations with Pakistan, where all the stakeholders are on board, are necessary for peace on the LoC, in Afghanistan and on the disputed border with China. Thus, while allowing its army to hit across the LoC at the right time and place, Delhi should accept the friendship hand of the Nawaz Sharif government. Alongside, India should open talks with the Pakistan chief of army staff (COAS). While many in Delhi will dismiss this as asinine, the US nearly pulled this rabbit out of the hat in December 2010.

    Writing in his book, The Dispensable Nation, Vali Nasr, the senior adviser to Richard Holbrooke, former US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, says that "Holbrooke had persuaded General Kayani to agree in principle to talks with India over Afghanistan and Afghanistan only."

    With this assurance, Holbrooke met an unnamed Indian diplomat over dinner in the US on December 6, 2010. According to Nasr, the Indian diplomat took this message to Delhi, and ''shortly thereafter, a message came from Delhi that (Prime Minister Manmohan) Singh had given the green light''. The meeting never took place as Holbrooke died within a week.

    The Nasr incidence is about the Pakistan COAS talking with India on Afghanistan; the reason this could not include Kashmir is because India would not be agreeable to overt US intervention. Regarding bilateral talks, the unusual Pakistan army gesture of reaching out to India is worth mentioning. The then Pakistan ISI chief, Lt General Shuja Pasha, had floated the idea of parallel talks with the Pakistan army in a meeting with all three Indian defence services' chiefs in his office on July 3, 2009. India did not respond and the matter ended.

    The important thing is that General Kayani would not have accepted talks with India any less than the Prime Minister's Office. Moreover, he cannot be seen taking orders from Islamabad. At the height of the Kashmir insurgency in 1992, when the Indian Army had moved large numbers in the Valley and Pakistan feared a sudden attack across the LoC, General S F Rodrigues, after clearance from defence minister Sharad Pawar, had written to his counterpart General Asif Nawaz Janjua to visit the LoC and review things for himself.

    This invitation was not accepted because the Pakistani army felt it was on top of the situation and the invite had come from the Indian COAS. After the 26/11 attacks, Pakistani president Asif Zardari had offered to send the ISI chief to Delhi to help Indian investigations. General Kayani ridiculed his president's suggestion even before India could react to the offer.

    Except for a brief period after the death of General Zia-ul-Haq in 1988, when the trio - President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and General Aslam Beg - shared power, the Pakistan army, since it acquired nuclear weapons capability in 1986, has maintained a firm control over its India policy. China and the US, two countries with close interaction with Pakistan, know this.

    After India's nuclear tests in May 1998, the US administration tried hard that Pakistan desist from its own tests. Strobe Talbott, the then US deputy secretary of state, writes in his book, Engaging India, that he tried to get permission from Prime Minister Sharif's office to visit Islamabad; he did not get a response. Then US commander-in-chief, central command, Admiral Tony Zinni reached out to the Pakistani COAS and got immediate clearance for the visit.

    It was again the COAS, General Jehangir Karamat, who made clear arguments to the US delegation why Pakistan had to do its tests to maintain a 'strategic balance' with India. Sharif, according to Talbott, simply waffled.

    India has three difficulties regarding talks with the Pakistan COAS when a civilian government is in place in Islamabad. First, the Pakistan army is seen as the enemy directly responsible for the proxy war in Kashmir and the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai. Second, India prides itself in being a democracy. Hence, with an elected government in Islamabad, direct talks with its army would be incorrect. And third, India will not like to set precedence by holding high-level government talks with the Pakistani COAS; with time, the Indian military, which is outside the security policymaking loop, may want to be inside it.

    Despite India's politically correct arguments for not talking with Rawalpindi, the truth is that results will emanate only when the real power centre in Pakistan is addressed directly. This is how Pakistan's dispensation is and India can do little about it. Years of structured bilateral talks with Islamabad have never moved beyond confidence building measures. On the other hand, both nations concede that with Pervez Musharraf firmly in the chair both countries moved on the Kashmir resolution in 2004-07.

    Once talking with the Pakistan COAS is accepted, three benefits will follow: quicker decisions will be taken by Pakistan, there will be institutional continuity and the proxy war will abate. The subjects could range from the resolution of Kashmir, to both sides being able to live in Afghanistan, to bilateral arms control and strategic concerns.

    The writer is editor, FORCE newsmagazine.

    Deal with the real power: The Pakistan army rather than the political establishment could deliver better results - The Times of India

    ******************

    The writer gives some interesting anecdotal information.

    There is no doubt that Pakistani Army is the actual power centre.

    However, will India which prides itself as a democracy and sets it heart on its sleeve over this label, be ready to interact with the Pakistani Army over the Pakistani democratic govt?

    What should be India's approach to solving the issue without resorting to arms.

    And how should India ensure that Pakistani Army and its 'strategic assets' i.e. the terrorists be made to realise that if it pursues this type of cross border attacks on the military, it will become unproductive in costs to them in all its ramifications?
     
    A chauhan likes this.
  2.  
  3. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2009
    Messages:
    5,498
    Likes Received:
    4,675
    Nawaj Shariff was fully aware of Kargil and he is aware of every single incident that happens at LOC or else where. We Indians have to come out of this deception.

    He is a con artist with many faces, a shrewd politician who can cry laugh worry anger mute flee pretend protest and many more. Like we say ''360 chalittar naar de''.

    Every Pakistani Buttos to shariffs or Butts they all are here to avenge India.

    Manmohan Singh is another fool in the long list of Indian Prime minsters trusting Pakistani politicians.
     
    VIP, A chauhan, TrueSpirit and 2 others like this.
  4. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,515
    Likes Received:
    2,111
    Location:
    Bharatvarsh
    Perfect word to describe them would be CHAMELEON !!

    What can be expected from a Puppet ?
     
    hit&run likes this.
  5. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2009
    Messages:
    5,316
    Likes Received:
    3,888
    Location:
    Hyderabad
    hit&run likes this.
  6. desicanuk

    desicanuk Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    288
    Likes Received:
    200
    Location:
    Canada
    TrueSpirit and hit&run like this.
  7. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda
    There seems to be a delusional belief among some Indian policy maker and government officials that India should somehow be responsible for supporting Pakistan's sham democracy and that terrible things will happen if the Taliban will gain control. I see a huge black hole of cognitive blindness here. The Pakistan armed forces are the most dangerous jihadis we face. Why are thee morons trying to save Pakistan from the Taliban? No one seems to go beyond the point of thnking that "bad things will happen if Pakistan breaks up and is taken over by the Taliban"

    What bad things? What could be worse for India than the Pakistan army, with its mercenary service to the USA earning it free arms for use against India.

    I bet my left testimonial that the 20 attackers who killed our boys were equipped with state of the art night vision equipment and these were supplied by the US to the Pakistan army.

    What the heck do the Congress party in particular believe we gain by beating about the bush and addressing every issue on earth other than the Pakistan army?
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
    VIP, gokussj9, A chauhan and 4 others like this.
  8. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda
    Ray the first thing that is required for India's government is open and above board acknowledgement that the Pakistan army calls the shots and that India will not deal with a puppet civilian government.

    If the Pakistan army has painted itself into a corner and wants to negotiate with the civilian government in India and will not talk to the India armed forces representative, there is no need to have worries that the Indian armed forces will want to talk. The Indian armed forces will have to be consulted in the background. Pakistan's demands are all well known. They will ask for Kashmir, Sir Creek, for India to disarm and remove troops from the border, and a say in Muslim affairs in India and changes in Indian laws to give Pakis a say in India. Maybe our politicians are largely too illiterate to have read history, but at least our bureaucrats should know what Pakistan wants.

    Pakistan wants honour by dominating India. That is all. Pakistan wants something that India is not going to give. In the long term Pakistan must get nothing and be allowed to fester in its own juices.

    Anyone who looks at the geography of the region and sees a satellite image will realise that 70% or more of Pakistan's population live around the Indus and the five rivers. To the north of Pakistan are mountains. To the west is desert. Neither of these areas is good for trade and economy and that has been true for millennia. That is why the economy of the area that is called Pakistan has always been linked to mainland India. Indians have not understood this, but Pakistanis and the Pakistan army realize this. So they have desperately tried to create a new economy by pushing Pakistan as a trade route for China and central Asia that bypasses India. Unfortunately geography is against this. It is very difficualt to build routes through the Himalayas because the young mountains are crumbly and very high.

    Central Asia is useless for Pakistan. The real silk route, the real overland east west trade was via central Asia, not Pakistan. The slk road had more than one branch leading south towards india and only one of them crossed into Pakistan. Central Asia itself has never had a great economy other than as highway robbers and toll collectors for east west trade. Even Islamic invaders from the west who came to central Asia ultimately eyed India and the Indus area was what was called India and they donated that area. What we are seeing is a continuation of that history.

    The Pakistan area necessarily has to look east at India for its economy. That "looking east" can either be domination/conquest or peaceful trade. "peaceful trade" is what Sri Lanka, Nepal, BDesh and Myanmar have with India. The pseudo-martial Pakis want conquest and are ashamed to admit that the maximum they can get is a Nepal like status, They should get ABOLUTELY NOTHING other than hostility or bullets until they stop eating grass and start eating humble pie.
    No talks. No trade. Only bullets.

    As far as India is concerned we need to build up our military industrial capability. Have a huge security apparatus and kick ass any time the Pakis provoke. I wish the government would understand
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
    SamwiseTheBrave, sob, hit&run and 4 others like this.
  9. Simple_Guy

    Simple_Guy Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2013
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    533
    Location:
    Delhi
    Kerry's Challenge in Pakistan

    US policy of aid is also failed. But the alternative they have in mind:

    LOL. India had already given these shootiyas MFN status. US should cut all military aid and then see.
     
    TrueSpirit and bennedose like this.
  10. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda
    +1

    The alternative is for us to arm ourselves to the teeth so that only direct US intervention on behalf of Pakistan can save them.
     
    anoop_mig25 likes this.
  11. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,891
    Likes Received:
    824
    Location:
    Forget It....Trace my IP if you can
    Geo-politically & economically, Pak is a cakewalk for India.

    But, as far as conventional superiority in pure military terms (ratio stated is 1 : 1.4 or something, not enough) is concerned, perpetual US aid ensures that India can never acquire a decisive edge when it comes to Pak. Add to this, Chicom threat looming in the North & NE.

    Our economy does not allow us to overspend Pak in military terms & bankrupt Pakis in this process. We are not USA & Pak has benefactors/patrons in US/KSA/other petro-dollars sources.

    This is one of the primary reasons Indian leadership (increasingly IA leadership, these days) appears reluctant or shy of taking Pakis, head-on.

    No matter, what Pak does to IA personnel, India would never retaliate militarily; nothing decisive or resounding enough to put an end to this cycle of violence.

    Tit-for-tat has not served our purpose, so far. Disproportionate response is not an option, it ius the only option.

    I believe, the only way out of this impasse is to exercise our prerogative of abrogation of Indus-water Treaty as Bennedose suggested, open the gates in rain season & close it during summers.

    Help Pak in its determined quest to become a desert of starving millions.

    Take the war into Paki homes & their families, & see the outcome....self-realization would dawn upon martial-Pakis.

    For India to do this, it requires indomitable political will & national resolve, coupled with preparedness on economic front.

    Then, lets see what US/KSA combine can do to help Pakis wh*res overcome this.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    @bennedose,

    Well analysed!

    Good to have you on the forum.

    You are an asset!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  13. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2009
    Messages:
    11,613
    Likes Received:
    5,670
    The new reasoning trotted by our foreign policy circles is that India is the one that can give legitimacy to and strengthen Pakistani democracy over Pakistani Army. What kind of idiots are making our foreign policy. I'm sorry to day that our NSA Shivshankar Menon is biggest disaster to happen to our security. Sharm-el-Shiekh and the recent Antony's 'Persons in Pkistani Army Uniform' remark has strong signature of Shivshankar Menon.

    Simple thing is, if we cannot get our foreign policy right, then how are we going to solve the Pakistani imbroglio.

    As Maroof Raza said on TimesNow NewsHour, our foreign policy has become hostage to one man's personal glory (nobel peace prize) and that people surrounding him are propping his desire.
     
    Simple_Guy likes this.
  14. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Are we the thekedar (borrowing the phrase from our favourite Pakistan watcher,. Blackwater) to ensure Pakistan remains a democracy?

    Who has assigned this onerous task to us?

    Great stuff. When one cannot solve the numerous issues of India, attempting to solve Pakistan's genetic problem!

    When India is aflame with anger against the brutal ways of Pakistan, we are wanting to be thekedars?

    Is this the Congress's version of Akhand Bharat?
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
  15. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2011
    Messages:
    4,893
    Likes Received:
    3,688
    Location:
    Bengaluru
    'bennedose` means butter dosa in kannada - this guy's posts are indeed a treat !
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  16. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    20,305
    Likes Received:
    8,270
    Location:
    011
    The argument made by the Indian State is how can we do back channel talks with PA ? PA claims to be subservient to Pak Govt; Pak Govt claims we are the boss talk to us.

    PA will not talk. They don't want peace.

    And the reason is very clear, Military-Jihad Complex is a massive money making and employment generation machine.

    Pakistanis aren't stupid.

    1. Pakistan establishment realizes Kashmiris don't want to merge with Pakistan, even in this election Kashmir issue was paid lip-service

    2. Sir Creek is not a protracted issue

    3. Muslim affairs in Pakistan are a mess. And many Pakistani muslims look to India's seminaries for fatwas/rulings.

    I have a different take on this : Pakistan Army Generals think they are gods and are essential for survival of Pakistan.
    It is not about honour, it is about staying in power.
     
  17. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda
    Thank you Ray sir. You are a veteran and an inspiration to me, and it was seeing your name on here that made me decide to register.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  18. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda

    No Pakistanis are not stupid at all. But there are many faces to Pakistan and many voices coming out of Pakistan. Having said that there is one clear voice of hostility that is obvious to everyone - so I really wonder where our government started thinking that they should ignore the hostility and imagine that Pakistanis on the ground want friendship.

    Now this is the only issue I have about putting all the onus of "India-hate" on the Pakistan army alone. That would be an exoneration of a lot of non military entities who have been nurtured to hate India. That nurturing started with Papa Bhutto and increased under Zia - so if we put a 1973 date on start of indoctrination (in schools) and assume that kids as young as ten years old were the first recipients of "hate India" indoctrination, we have a mass of Pakistanis between the ages of 15 and 40 who have been taught to hate India. But education in Pakistan has not reached 100% of Pakis - but we still have a whole lot of Pakistanis who have been taught to hate India and will continue to hate India for the next 50 to 75 years at least.

    The Pakistani army has always used the "hate India" excuse to keep itself in power and keep Pakistan united - because hating India is Pakistan's identity. Pakistan's survival depends on distancing itself from India and the army has claimed that only they can keep India at bay. When Manmohan Singh started his friendship overtures in the years after 26/11 I was initially willing to think that India is doing what the Pakistan army does not want, and the idea is to 'split away" the India friendly Pakis from the India haters. But clearly events have shown that if there are any India-friendly Pakistanis, they have very little power or say and only India hate emerges from Pakistan. Therefore Pakistan simply must be treated as a nation that hates India and to hell with those who may want friendship with India. They can be ignored for all practical purposes - they are currently useless in preventing our asses from being singed by Pakistan.

    There is another issue here. The US successfully managed to pressure Pakistan to pull away troops from the Indian border for its decade long war on terror. I suspected that there was some sort of understanding between India and the US (or pressure on India) to keep the LOC quiet so that Pakistanis cannot pretend that they need to stay on the Indian border. Early reports used to refer to 60,000 or 80,000 Pakistani troops in the west. The most recent figures I read was 110,000 troops in the west. That combined with desertions of Pashtuns, too many tours of duty, and loss of morale from fighting people who were allies left the Pakistan army relatively weak. This is why the Pakistan army has, for the first time, stayed out of power and has faced criticism from non military entities. In other words they have lost some power. Defeats in wars with India never diluted the Pak army's popularity and power, but now it has happened without Indian intervention.

    To me the question is, if the Pakistan army does not wield the power that it used to wield, who wields power in Pakistan?

    Now I am seeing some weird things in Pakistan that I would like to make sense of. For example in India when there is a bomb blast (say German bakery) or the killing of five soldiers at the LOC, there is genuine national anguish. The anger and sorrow are not whipped up by the media (as Pakis allege). There is genuine national level consternation aside from a few political donkeys. Pakistan has ten times that much violence going on inside Pakistan and I see no national level concern. If the Pakistani army really has concern, power and patriotism, they should step in. They have not stepped in and that tells a story. The Pakistan army is unable to step in to stop the bombings and killings - either in Quetta, Peshawar or in other parts of the NW, or in Karachi.

    It gets more weird than that. Hafiz Saeed is said to have visited the LoC before the beheading of an Indian soldier. He is said to have visited the LoC again recently. Seriously? Hafiz Saeed? At the LoC? wtf? Imagine Veerappan or Phoolan devi directing Indian army operations at the LoC? What about the Paki army? Who are they taking orders from? Clearly things are not what they seem now. The Pakistan army has morphed into a completely ideological army led by an Islamic cleric. Reports clearly say that a Pakistan army unit of Mujahideen" organized the attack.

    We must face facts and set misplaced secularist sensitivities aside. We are facing an Islamic jihad. An Islamic jihad directed against kafir (unbeliever) India. This is over and above the Pakistan army's love of power and fed by three generations of India haters. There is simple logic here. You may want to love me, but if I keep hitting you, you will have to admit at some stage that we are at war. And the war being waged is not simply Kashmir, Sir Creek or Muslim rights in India. it is jihad. the reason for giving excuses like Kashmir, Sir Creek or Muslims in India is simply to demonstrate that peace with India is NOT what Pakistan wants. The army does not want it. the forces of jihad do not want it. The Pakistan army has lost power and jihadis have gained. The net result for India is that we are at war. it is high time the somnolent Rip Van Winkles in the Congress led government of India woke up to these patently obvious facts.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    43,118
    Likes Received:
    23,545
    Location:
    Somewhere
    You are too kind!

    I am but a na cheez!
     
  20. Simple_Guy

    Simple_Guy Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2013
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    533
    Location:
    Delhi
  21. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,336
    Likes Received:
    1,955
    Location:
    Pindliyon ka gooda
    Somehow I think this is a typical bluff news item released from Pakistan that could precede an attack in India. If that happens, Pakistanis will say "See, the entire subcontinent is under threat from terrorists. That is why we issued a warning. We need sympathy and thanks, not the accusation of being sponsors of violence. We too are victims"

    There are plenty of Indian buffoons who will swallow this story, go to the LOC, join hands to sway from side to side and sing "Kumbaya my love" with a carnation stuck behind the ear.
     
    desicanuk, parijataka and Simple_Guy like this.

Share This Page