Solution of Afganistan quagmire!!!

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Understanding Russia's Approach on Afghanistan, Pakistan

June 25, 2010 - 3:15pm, by Mark N. Katz
Afghanistan Pakistan Commentary
US President Barack Obama's June 24 meeting in Washington with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, focused mainly on trade and economics. They did not spend much time on security issues, such as Afghanistan. That means an opportunity to gain better mutual understanding about a crucial strategic matter may have been missed.

It is important for American policy planners to understand that the Kremlin approach toward Afghanistan and Pakistan has undergone a dramatic shift in recent years.

Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist tragedy, the United States and its NATO allies established military bases in Central Asia and quickly drove the Taliban from power in Kabul. These developments were unsettling to Russian planners, who worried that Washington was gaining influence in the region at Moscow's expense.

In recent years, Russian thinking has adjusted to the reality that the United States and its allies could not easily contain the Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan. By 2009, Russian leaders even started to grow concerned that the Obama administration might suddenly withdraw American forces from Afghanistan, thus leaving Russia alone to deal with the threat that a resurgent Taliban would pose to Central Asia and Russia itself. Accordingly, Moscow helped the United States put together the Northern Distribution Network, a re-supply route that facilitates the overland transit of non-lethal goods from Europe to Afghanistan. [For background see EurasiaNet's archive].

While Moscow now supports the US/NATO position in Afghanistan, the Kremlin nevertheless is striving to differentiate Russia from the West in ways that Moscow hopes will boost its standing in the eyes of President Hamid Karzai's administration in Kabul. US relations with Karzai have experienced a marked change in recent years. The Bush Administration strongly promoted Karzai, but the Afghan leader's relations with President Obama have often been tense. Over the same period, Russian policy has sought to emphasize Moscow's long-term interest in a stable Afghanistan. As Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan, Andrei Avetisyan, stated in December 2009; "Many of your friends will have to go sometimes because they came from far away to help you. But when they go, we stay—together with your neighbors, we stay."

There have been great changes in Russian-Pakistani relations in recent years too. Pakistan had long been a country that Moscow had antagonistic relations with. During the Cold War, sources of tension between the two countries included Pakistan's close relations with both the United States and China; the Soviet Union's close relations with Pakistan's main rival, India; and Pakistan's support for the Afghan Mujahedeen fighting Soviet forces in Afghanistan.

After most outside powers, including the United States and European nations, lost interest in Afghanistan following the Soviet troop withdrawal, Pakistan remained engaged in Afghanistan, eventually becoming the chief sponsor of the Taliban—something that Moscow found threatening. Indeed, Russia supported anti-Taliban forces in northern Afghanistan long before the United States and NATO did after the September 11 terrorist tragedy. More recently, Moscow—along with many others—grew agitated about the continued Taliban presence in Afghanistan. Russian leaders also worried about Pakistan's seeming inability—or even unwillingness—to defeat Islamic militants.

But over the past few years, Russian-Pakistani relations have improved, in part as a reaction to warming Indian-American relations. Another important factor is the fact that Russia has discovered Pakistan to be a lucrative market for arms exports.

How long, though, is this friendly Russo-Pakistani relationship likely to last? There is reason to believe that the withdrawal of US/NATO forces from Afghanistan (now tentatively scheduled to begin in mid-2011) could lead to renewed tension between Russia and Pakistan over Afghanistan.

Three decades of hostility cannot be easily ignored. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, Pakistan served as the conduit for external assistance to the Mujahedeen fighting against both Soviet forces and the Afghan Marxist regime. During this period, Moscow mainly supported the Uzbeks and Tajiks in the north of the country, while Pakistan mainly supported the Pashtuns in the south.

After Soviet forces withdrew in 1989 and the Marxist regime they left behind fell in 1992, it was replaced by a self-proclaimed Islamic regime that was also dominated by northerners. Pakistan backed the predominantly Pashtun Taliban which overthrew this regime in 1996 and overran most of Afghanistan. From the early 1990s until just after 9/11, then, Russia tended to back Uzbek and Tajik forces in the North that resisted the advance of the Taliban.

The US-led invasion in Afghanistan beginning in October 2001 sought to overcome Afghanistan's North-South divide by creating a government that appealed to both. This effort was exemplified by the promotion of Karzai—a Pushtun with strong northern ties—as Afghanistan's post-Taliban president. In time, though, the Karzai government came to be seen as not only corrupt and ineffective, but as serving the interests of northerners—who were especially prominent in its ranks. This increasingly led many Pashtuns to regard the Taliban as the defenders of Pashtun interests. While Pakistan has cooperated with the United States in Afghanistan to some extent, elements within its government in Islamabad have continued to support the Taliban. Russia, as noted above, has largely backed the Karzai government and the American-led effort to prop it up.

The pattern, then, of Russia backing the northerners (Uzbeks and Tajiks) and Pakistan backing the southerners (Pashtuns) that existed both during the 1980's and 1990's is continuing today. Thus, a US withdrawal from Afghanistan could be expected to result in Russia and Pakistan both continuing—indeed, probably increasing—their support for their traditional Afghan allies. If this occurs, then the Russian-Pakistani relationship would most likely return to its accustomed mutual antagonism.

The implications of this are that after an American departure from Afghanistan, Russia (probably along with India and Iran) can be expected to work to prevent the Pakistani-backed Taliban from reasserting control over all Afghanistan, just as they did in the 1990's. How successful they can be in achieving this aim, though, may well depend on whether the United States abandons Afghanistan altogether as it did during the 1990s, or whether Washington actively works with Moscow and others to contain the Taliban and its Pakistani supporters.
 

anoop_mig25

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2009
Messages
5,804
Likes
3,151
Country flag
Understanding Russia's Approach on Afghanistan, Pakistan

June 25, 2010 - 3:15pm, by Mark N. Katz

The implications of this are that after an American departure from Afghanistan, Russia (probably along with India and Iran) can be expected to work to prevent the Pakistani-backed Taliban from reasserting control over all Afghanistan, just as they did in the 1990's. How successful they can be in achieving this aim, though, may well depend on whether the United States abandons Afghanistan altogether as it did during the 1990s, or whether Washington actively works with Moscow and others to contain the Taliban and its Pakistani supporters.
It would be dream for indian policymakers and probably nightmares for pakistan if america co-operates with russia-india-iran to control pakistan supported taliban0_0
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
Taliban will not attack India to the best of my knowledge. They will at most train the scums from LeT who anyways dont require training now as that job is done well by the PA. The Taliban is more interested in ruling their own country.
I do not agree with this sentence, solely because of Al queda's interaction with the Talibans now. There are numerouse examples that is happening currently, one of the best example is Faisal Shahzad (The time square bomber). This might seem simple on the surface, but there is a paradigm shift of operation of these Talibans, be it Pakistani or Afgani. This one incedent has a signature of Al queda's worlds domination (Terrorist attack) trademark, and what is also interesting, is this man was trained by the Taliban, which also says that Al queda trained him meaning:

1. Chosing the right person
2. Brainwashing him to the idelogy
3. Trainning and educating
4. Caring the act in foreign country (Which require help and association)
5. Etc.....

Taliban is not that smart, but Al queda is!!!
And here is my Beef!!! Pakistan is not capable or willing to eliminate this idealogy forever, hence changing the idealogy of the people they love the most becomes a priority!!!!
 
Last edited:

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
A multi-religious society will remain a pipe-dream unless a basic element of secularism is attained. So one can't jump directly to preaching other religions in a pre-dominantly Wahabi & Deobandi society.
Who told you that Afgan has to Attend or working towards Secularism?

Afganistan today is worring about how to form a country or a goverment, how basic can that be!!! A new implementation has to be formed and you will see new changes....
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
I think you're over-weighing the power of religion. Today, people don't care about whats written in the scriptures. They care about having a good life and blowing money. We know too well that religion is often made an excuse for gaining power.
You are young, believe me BAPS Temples around the world (Which is made of Marbles) was not created by me "over-weighing the power of Religion."

In this instance, the energy was used to build a marble wonders around the world, likewise can be said, if the same energy used in antagonist ways!!!!

Create conditions of prosperity within A'stan. Give them ways to become rich. Very rich.
Change of faith is not the solution. Secularism is.
This general sentences I really hate....
Who creates Prosperity, the answer is yourself!!! If you are not capable then no matter who tries there will never will be prosperity. And espeically the sentence of "Give them ways to become Rich", Is someone teaching you how to become rich in your personal life!!!! If he is, I also want to meet him.....
 
Last edited:

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
sorry mate u are to late to come with idea. Americans are living as soon as possible. talibans are going to be integrated with Afgan gov.Pakistan are going to get free feild in Afganistan when american leave
Who said they where leaving, infact Obama is questioning the date now!!!!
 
Last edited:

Soham

DFI TEAM
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2009
Messages
1,972
Likes
91
Country flag
Who told you that Afgan has to Attend or working towards Secularism?
Nobody needs to. Its obvious.
When I say secularism, I don't mean increasing the political influence of other religions, but decreasing that of their own. I'm talking about a system, where your hierarchy w.r.t Islam does not affect your powers and liberties in society.

Afganistan today is worring about how to form a country or a goverment, how basic can that be!!! A new implementation has to be formed and you will see new changes....
Of-course it needs to be formed. And introducing other religions has nothing to do with any such implementation.

You are young
That neither affects, nor clouds my judgement.

, believe me BAPS Temples around the world (Which is made of Marbles) was not created by me "over-weighing the power of Religion."
And how exactly do those temples make any difference ? Do the residents in areas around them embark on journeys of non-violence and come out as a supra-ethical and pious society ? No.

In this instance, the energy was used to build a marble wonders around the world, likewise can be said, if the same energy used in antagonist ways!!!!
Uh..no. That energy will result in a civil war. Why are you blind to the religious demographics of that country ? For now, there is significant presence of mentally-mutated Mullahs who will see the advent of any other religion as a threat to their own.

What do you think happened in Lebanon and Palestine ?
Afghanistan already has more than its share of problems. Encouraging other religions will give them another reason to sustain their killing-spree.


This general sentences I really hate....
I'm so sorry.

Who creates Prosperity, the answer is yourself!!!
For an individual, yes. For a society, not completely.
If you are not capable then no matter who tries there will never will be prosperity.
Yeah yeah... we all know those principles of idealism.

Tell me, would a bright entrepreneur in the US and that in USSR have had the same chances of success ?
Does the economic system play no role ? Do Govt. policies, subsidies, aids play no role ?


And espeically the sentence of "Give them ways to become Rich", Is someone teaching you how to become rich in your personal life!!!! If he is, I also want to meet him.....
I will ignore the jibe and answer your main point.

Continuing from the previous reply, to make a mostly unemployed population prosper, you have to introduce means of employment. Introduce schemes of training and skill-impartment. Set up small-scale indigenous industrial setups to get the ball rolling and upgrade to large setups with the help of international aid.

I'll give you an example.

The Americans have set up hundreds of textile units for creating the uniforms of US/NATO forces and that of the Afghan Army and Police. These set-ups are for mutual benefit, and the western capital is paid off by cheap manufacture of uniforms en-masse. On the other hand, the Afghan people are getting employment leading to a gradual betterment of life.

Now here's the problem that came up. The Afghan populace was not skilled enough to operate Western stitching machines and looms. So those textile companies turned to India for help, who were aware of the local fabric qualities and could easily handle mechanized and non-mechanized weaving. Many Indian 'supervisors' were therefore sent to A'stan to train their workforce and supervise their operations.

The circle is complete.

Apply the same to other trades as well.
 
Last edited:

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
Yeah yeah... we all know those principles of idealism.

Tell me, would a bright entrepreneur in the US
and that in USSR have had the same chances of success ?
Does the economic system play no role ? Do Govt. policies, subsidies, aids play no role ?
This one I really want to answer first!!!

I created a six million dollar business from thousand dollars, but my greed and my youth brought me down. For a proof look at Park Ave condo in Atlanta!!!!

The entrepreneurs of the country makes the country, look at India the poorest of the poorest is selling water at train stations and other similiar places. Would you consider him as an Entrepreneur, or just a poor kid. I Consider him as an Entrepreneur!!!!

Because if there is a smart Kid within them, a true Entrepreneur, he will eventually find a way to increase his income as well as broaden his horizon on the product he is selling...

Now are you going to teach this to Afganis kids or populace!!!!

No, it is inborn!!!


Thanks..
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
Nobody needs to. Its obvious.
I will ignore the jibe and answer your main point.

Continuing from the previous reply, to make a mostly unemployed population prosper, you have to introduce means of employment. Introduce schemes of training and skill-impartment. Set up small-scale indigenous industrial setups to get the ball rolling and upgrade to large setups with the help of international aid.
Such a Liberal!!!

Why India creates more jobs then Pakistan?

Because the enviroment and peoples culture is right!!!

What you arguing is feeding people to be prosperous, that does not happen..

Thanks..
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
precisely what you are also proposing to change. they are inborn with some beliefs, but then you want that changed.
Now, now Mr. Yusuf are you suggesting they are born with given religious belief also now. Or is that part of culture that transform them to certain religion...

A culture of growth, in a country, created does not necessarily associate with religion. My association of religion in Afgani case is solely based on a theory of not being influenced by the outsider (mainly Pakistanie side). Because of Pakistanie intervention has put the whole Afgani equation in suspended motion, So what is needed to have a paradigm?
 
Last edited:

Yusuf

GUARDIAN
Super Mod
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
24,324
Likes
11,757
Country flag
Problem is that religion and culture there is intertwined. What you say requires good old fashioned colonization and then force them to change. Every one in history knows what has happened to them when they tried to force the Afghans.
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
Problem is that religion and culture there is intertwined. What you say requires good old fashioned colonization and then force them to change. Every one in history knows what has happened to them when they tried to force the Afghans.
Ok Mr. Moderator Every one knows the history of those Afghans!!!!

So back to square one, right!!!
 

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
Well the USSR and Maoist China were "irreligious" societies but were responsible for killing millions of their own people as well as people in other countries. The solution of Afghanistan is non-interference from its neighbors. This should be adhered to strictly and monitored by international observers.

And progressive solutions in the local culture are not a problem once security and non-interference is established. For example, it is the mullas in Afghanistan that have become instrumental is spreading contraceptive awareness and importance of using birth control. In other areas they have come out and promoted girls education as well. So the cultural and local awareness can play an important role if we are patient and look from their worldview instead of imposing our own.

For example, India already has the centre of muslim learning in Deoband. A non official exchange of Deoband ulema that moderate Afghan behavious, inform them on the importance of girl education and taking care of minorities e.t.c. can have a positive affect and also strengthen Afghan-Indian bond. Indian women NGOs are culturally aware of the situation of wmen in the sub-continent and can use this to come up with women only self help groups and study groups. An example of this is SEWA from Gujarat. Another example of these "cultural sensitivities" is the funding of a women only park by India. This park was a place where only women and children are allowed and Afghan women go in drop their Burkhas and have fun with their kids. And at the same time do not deviate from their cultural norms as this is a women only place. All these are examples that will work towards a more progressive society.

But the first step is to establish non-interference of neighbors and security. The upliftment of society will be possible only after that.
 

Soham

DFI TEAM
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2009
Messages
1,972
Likes
91
Country flag
This one I really want to answer first!!!

I created a six million dollar business from thousand dollars, but my greed and my youth brought me down. For a proof look at Park Ave condo in Atlanta!!!!
Very cute. Now tell me exactly how you would accomplished the same in Somalia.

The entrepreneurs of the country makes the country, look at India the poorest of the poorest is selling water at train stations and other similiar places. Would you consider him as an Entrepreneur, or just a poor kid. I Consider him as an Entrepreneur!!!!
Good for you. I consider him unfortunate to be working in conditions lacking any prospect of growth.

Because if there is a smart Kid within them, a true Entrepreneur, he will eventually find a way to increase his income as well as broaden his horizon on the product he is selling...

Now are you going to teach this to Afganis kids or populace!!!!
And were we arguing on the definition of Entrepreneurship ? Go back and read my previous post. There are many other factors that govern its success.

Also,
If every single person becomes an entrepreneur where will the companies go ? You do realize that majority of populace of any country are in the service class and they need a place to offer them work.

Where are those places in Afghanistan ?



Such a Liberal!!!
If you say so.

Why India creates more jobs then Pakistan?

Because the enviroment and peoples culture is right!!!

What you arguing is feeding people to be prosperous, that does not happen..

Thanks..
Have you even read what I've written or are you ranting just for the heck of it ?
Did you not read my elaboration in case of textile industries ?

I'm not talking about spoon-feeding. I'm talking about creating the necessary environment to encourage a stable economic setup.


Lastly, why are you mixing religion with extremism. If Hinduism/Christianity or any other religion does take hold in A'stan, will all the violence suddenly cease to exist ?

Are there no Hindu extremists ?
 

Yusuf

GUARDIAN
Super Mod
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
24,324
Likes
11,757
Country flag
Ok Mr. Moderator Every one knows the history of those Afghans!!!!

So back to square one, right!!!
quite right/ back to square one as it was one absurd an idea.
 

thakur_ritesh

Ambassador
Joined
Feb 19, 2009
Messages
4,435
Likes
1,733
Jeypore,

Is the afghanistan problem a predominantly religious issue or is it more about tribal culture, the gun culture, and about exploitation from outside forces where religion plays its part but the real anarchy sets in from other practices they have to which they cling on to this day even as the world around them has moved at a much faster pace.

Let us stick to your theory and say its a religious problem, still how will you go about converting someone or bring about liberal thoughts in its interpretition when it is not a religion where people get taught all religions lead to that almighty but is one where a basic difference of believers and non-believers is taught, where a concept of superiority over others is highlighted, where there are people with in the religion who do not accept another with in the same religion as a muslim because the other has a slight difference in his/her concepts of faith and all these superstitions are deeply engraved with in the mindset of a populace which is made most of illitrates who can be fumed with as trivial an issue that a girl appeared on national tv without a head scaf and who slightly swung while she was singing, a small act but which became a national rage for the average afghan to the extent that this girlstarted getting instant life threats andshe had to leave the town where she was living over night and had to live under ground and the word around was she had been killed to keep the honour of the religion.

You are talking about few of the most barbaric people out there and when it comes to their religion they wont think a moment but go on a killing spree in the name of keeping its honour and any such idea of indoctrination of converstion, or be open to other religions or talk about reforms will be seen as demeaning the religion and when the taliban is there knocking at the doors such a move will quickly wane the support for the US led forces and create a ground for sympathy for the cause of the taliban and increase support for them many fold and all this could change the game on groung instantly, so I tend to believe it is a recipe which will only complicate matters than resolve it, imagine such a thing (the reform part) doesn't get implemented even in pakistan, a country which in comparison come across as a lot more humane and human like, musharraf talked about it and it became one of the many reasons for him be hated by the masses.
 

Jeypore

Regular Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2009
Messages
148
Likes
3
Jeypore,


Let us stick to your theory and say its a religious problem, still how will you go about converting someone or bring about liberal thoughts in its interpretition when it is not a religion where people get taught all religions lead to that almighty but is one where a basic difference of believers and non-believers is taught, where a concept of superiority over others is highlighted, where there are people with in the religion who do not accept another with in the same religion as a muslim because the other has a slight difference in his/her concepts of faith and all these superstitions are deeply engraved with in the mindset of a populace which is made most of illitrates who can be fumed with as trivial an issue that a girl appeared on national tv without a head scaf and who slightly swung while she was singing, a small act but which became a national rage for the average afghan to the extent that this girlstarted getting instant life threats andshe had to leave the town where she was living over night and had to live under ground and the word around was she had been killed to keep the honour of the religion.
That is really not a problem because History has shown in itselfs of how the Students are taught from 1st grade to finishing there education. That is from Hitlar to China. But Even US has done the same thing in there educational system, from 1900's (do not know the exact date or the president), the PUBLIC educational system was developed for worker bees in US. And this is not ranting, but I can prove each link with these sentences!!!!!

So back to my equation of teaching the young Afgan the basic educational system as well as other religious possibilities!!!!!

Why would this not work, since there is a very strong coorelation of Islamic fundamentalism in that region. To the point is, if these kids where surrounded with other religious knowledge they would not be susceptable to such fundamentalism....
 
Last edited:

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top