Size of Chinese economy is mathematically impossible for India to close in 10 years

Discussion in 'China' started by mylegend, Jan 6, 2012.

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  1. mylegend

    mylegend Regular Member

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    Since there were so many negative aspect of Chinese economy posted by Indian members of this forum, so I would like to hypothesize the scenario Indian member describe that Chinese economy crash.

    There is just this very nature of thing that can not be change. India's GDP(exchange rate) size is about only 1/4 of China.

    Chinese GDP is the following according to CIA World Factbook.
    [TABLE="width: 798, align: left"]
    [TR]
    [TD]GDP (official exchange rate):[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]$5.878 trillion (2010 est.)[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]




    [TABLE="width: 798, align: left"]
    [TR]
    [TD]GDP (purchasing power parity):[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]$10.09 trillion (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 3
    $9.144 trillion (2009 est.)
    $8.374 trillion (2008 est.)[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]




    India's GDP is the following according CIA World Factbook:
    [TABLE="width: 798, align: left"]
    [TR]
    [TD]GDP (purchasing power parity):[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]$4.06 trillion (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 5
    $3.679 trillion (2009 est.)
    $3.447 trillion (2008 est.)
    note: data are in 2010 US dollars[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]GDP (official exchange rate):[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]$1.538 trillion (2010 est.)

    According to this data, let us make a very bold assumption that China's GDP growth will stall at 0%(adjusted to inflation) annually for the next 10 yrs(very highly unlikely). India will grow at 10%(adjusted to inflation) annually for 10 yrs. Let us calculate the result after 10 yrs.

    10% growth:
    (1+0.10)^10=2.5937424601
    0% growth:
    (1+0.00)^10=1.00

    India's GDP(exchange rate) was $1.538 trillion (2010 est.), so let us calculate:
    1.538*2.5937424601=3.9891759036338
    oops, that is about 2/3 of Chinese 2010's GDP.

    However, comparing GDP(exchange rate) may not be fair. So let compare the GDP(purchasing power)
    4.06*2.5937424601=10.530594388006
    Wow, India actually surpass China by 500 billion dollar in respect of GDP(purchasing power).

    Okay, so I come to a conclusion this title is wrong, it is mathematically possible for India close the gap if Chinese economy stall for 10 yrs with 0% annual growth and India grow by 10% annually for 10yrs.

    However, all the comparison above is just a joke when we compare to the real giant. United States of America. My very act of comparing China and India seem so pathetic.

    United States' GDP is the following according to CIA World Factbook.
    [TABLE="width: 798, align: left"]
    [TR]
    [TD]GDP (official exchange rate):[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]$14.66 trillion (2010 est.)[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]




    Wow, so all the comparing is just sad, Chinese economic size is less than even half of US GDP.
    $5.878 trillion vs $14.66 trillion... Wow, after the so-call maracle, Chinese economy is just about 40% of United States, and US population is only about 1/4 of China.

    So let stop talking about how doom or great China's or India's economy is. The real giant is United States of America.

    We are all developing countries, and let us all be realistic about our economic and military capability. Other Chinese poster should also aware that we are so far behind because 30yr of failure during Mao's reign. Last 30 yrs development is a prove of Chinese nation's true potential, let us all work hard. We should all condemn Mao, he is not really the person some member here should respect. He ruin this great nation. Deng in comparison, worth much more respect. However, China's future should lies on hand of Chinese people not Nobles in Beijing. The entire politburo(政治局) are full of 红二代, we are still rule under the feudal system that few interest are place above well-being of all. One of most corrupted example of is former premier 李鹏(Li Peng), his family control so much national asset. His daughter 李小琳 is head of 中国国际电力集团 and his son 李小鹏 was head of 中国华能集团(the biggest electricity company in China). His son now quit his electricity job and go directly become deputy president of Shanxi province.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2012
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  3. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    10yrs is very large amount of time. Anything can happen, India can go completely bankrupt or even surpass everyone. I feel sorry for people making predictions on economic issues.
     
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  4. mylegend

    mylegend Regular Member

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    I do agree anything can happen in 10 yrs time frame. However, economist have invented many tools to analyse economy, usually the number will not go way off. However, anything can happen. However, what we do know is what is highly likely, and highly unlikely. For example is likely that China and India will maintain high growth for next 5 yrs unless something drastically happen.
     
  5. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    I agree on growth rate but India's deficit is going to shoot up many folds in coming years, while PRC is worried about US dumping bonds.

    Speculation is mother of all evil.
     
  6. mylegend

    mylegend Regular Member

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    Well, speculation is sometime good too. The last CBS's 60 minute I watch interviewed SEC official(maybe other official, I do not remember) about Frequency trading, she said that frequency trading account for over half of total transaction in the market. As result of that, trading cost have become much lower, and also liquidity improved. It is much faster to sell stocks today than 10 yrs ago. Friend of mine, often use program to trade in-out within 5 minute... Although he earn less compare when fluctuation was at 5 cents, now fluatuation is in 1 cents that makes it some what harder for him..
    http://articles.latimes.com/2000/jun/01/business/fi-36195
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2012
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  7. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    @My legend

    India's official economy is 1.7 trillion dollars.What about India's parllel economy or the black economy?For every accounted rupe there is 100 rupees unaccounted we call it here black money almost all citizens posess it here to varying degrees.India's economy is highl understated the volume of money and assets involved
     
  8. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Sorry, but we don't allow organ measuring contests on the forum
     
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