Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years

Discussion in 'China' started by Neil, Oct 15, 2013.

  1. Neil

    Neil Senior Member Senior Member

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    On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “????50????????? (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

    The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose – the reclaiming of what the Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.”

    Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

    Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

    the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as ??? (ChinaNews.com).

    The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word by (?), which means “must” or “necessary” or “surely.” That is why the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.

    THE SIX WARS [SURE] TO BE FOUGHT BY CHINA IN THE COMING 50 YEARS
    China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation of the Chinese people, a shame for the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

    THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)
    Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to the status quo (which is favorable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

    China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

    From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depends on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into the Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. And Japan step in at this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

    THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)
    After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to the countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of the Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

    At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with the Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make the final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

    Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1st war mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

    The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

    Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interest, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

    Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

    THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)
    China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

    In India, the official and media’s attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aid from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long-lasting land disputes.

    Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

    Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.

    The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

    India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

    After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

    After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.


    THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)
    In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands.

    Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (now named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.

    What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)

    The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?

    THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)
    Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

    After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.

    We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

    If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be ready to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.

    In this moment, the previous four wars have been settles. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.

    THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)
    The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

    After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

    In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

    There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions



    Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with India in 2035 TO 2040 Claims Chinese Daily | idrw.org


    retarded article...!! anyways to china daily mail...:: bring it on [email protected]
     
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  3. angeldude13

    angeldude13 Lestat De Lioncourt Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Chinese wet dreams.
     
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  4. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    along with pakis
     
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  5. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. maomao

    maomao Veteran Hunter of Maleecha Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    LOL this article is as realistic as Raul Gandhi's intelligence! :D
     
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  7. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    @Yusuf @Singh Would you mind moving this to "Jokes" thread, please ?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  8. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    china has officially acknowledged mongolia as a country in written.they even had a brief duration of war with russia regarding mongolia.
    if they ever try this again russia will again kick the shit out of chinese as they did before
     
  9. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Better learn some history before making some crap, China never fought a war with Russia regarding Mongolia. There was a conflict regarding a small island in the river which mark the Sino-USSR border.

    The result of last conflict is: the island was controlled by Chinese since then.
     
  10. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    I hope the Chinese do put this plan into action. After all if they are bent on collective suicide, then all we need to do is stand back and watch the fun! :)
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Six wars unlikely, just one war will be a humiliating disaster militarily and economically
    For the communists.
     
  12. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Or all the "future" victims of all six wars should awaken to this insightful article, combine forces and then beat the Chinese back right now, before the 2020 ultimatum to Taiwan. Would save China the trouble of fighting six wars over 50 years.

    A repeat of the Boxer Rebellion anyone?
     
  13. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Pakistan will be there in 2035-40 timeline? Hmmm
     
  14. DivineHeretic

    DivineHeretic Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    I'll play the devil's advocate on this one

    Sure the article appears to be the fantasy of a anime obsessed kid, but there is definitely some basis to his/her theory

    I wont speculate as to how the wars may come into being, that would be too difficult as of now. But allow me to analyze the effect and fallout of just two wars.

    1. Unification of Taiwan:

    If China successfully mounts an invasion and annexation of Taiwan, the American dominance will have well and truly come to an end. Inability of The USA to defend one of its allies will reverberate throughout the world.

    The US guarantee, especially to the pacific allies will lose any significance. We'll probably see Japan finally shedding its pacifist constitution and along with South Korea (though not necessarily in unison) engage in the biggest re-arming campaigns of all time.

    It is also likely that the region will nuclearize as soon as Taiwan falls. The US guarantee of nuclear and conventional cover is the only thing preventing the Japanese and South Koreans from going Nuclear.

    To be honest, China will have hacked their own position in the South China Sea by invading Taiwan.

    2. Invasion of Arunachal Pradesh:

    This is a whole different ballgame altogether. You are not invading a tiny island nation, you are not invading a weak nation with a small GDP and population but in all probability the 3rd most powerful country in the world.

    The only way China can successfully invade into AP even is if they have the element of surprise. And unless the Chinese can blind the Indian and American and NATO spy sats and other monitoring assets, there can be no surprise.

    Assuming it takes 48 hours to move 4 divisions (up from 2 at the moment), the Chinese will have to create an intelligence black hole for 2 days, just to hide the invasion force. That in itself would give away the plans.

    And assuming they actually managed to take AP, they surely cant expect India to retaliate in other sectors, while at the same time amass as many resources as it can for the recapture of our territory.

    It wont be a short war the next time around....
     
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  15. Free Karma

    Free Karma Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is all cool but in the event that Taiwan cant really be saved by conventional means, what stops people from threatening each other with nukes?

    Ultimately no one wants to die, so it will have to end in stalemate.
     
  16. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    better part of history

    while exchanging some other part
     
  17. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    today or tomorrow taiwan will join china.only thing stopping them from doing so is communist rule in china while democracy in taiwan.once china becomes a democratic,reunion will smoothly happen.

    now do we need to arm taiwan with nukes?
     
  18. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    China has nukes. Fairly certain any attempted repeat of the Boxer Rebellion would result in a nuclear holocaust. The current Chinese force posture and nuclear command structure practically dictates nukes, even if China gets turned to radioactive ashes.

    Is India willing to risk a radioactive Delhi to do a pre-emptive strike on China?
     
  19. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Re: Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years, One with Ind

    Yes.

    Are you willing to get every chini city nuked in order to get AP ?
     
  20. Dinesh_Kumar

    Dinesh_Kumar Regular Member

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    The Indian Army and Govt. have been receiving information on China's likely moves. Surely they are taking all these into account and making preparations for such an eventuality !
     
  21. shiphone

    shiphone Senior Member Senior Member

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    LOL...once again ...the language barrier is the key....

    with some simple key word ,I could get the original link from the so called Chinese newspaper....note: it is a Hongkong news paper...
    中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 - 文匯資訊

    and it's quoted on a newpaper's website,not a published one...such news is a reproduced articles from a China's BBS---中新网社区., publiced in around 6 parts...the whole edition could also be found here

    ¾üÊÂרÌ⣺ÆعâÖйúÔÚδÀ´50ÄêÀï±Ø´òµÄÁù³¡Õ½Õù-ËѺü¾üÊÂƵµÀ

    I don't think such things like personal blog need your so much attention and fuss....it is really mean nothing...

    why not have a look the coments by the other chinese members in the comment section?

    [​IMG]

    can't read Chinese? OK ,let me make it simple...most comments could be translated into a simple English word:

    NUTS
     

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