Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of war

Discussion in 'Internal Security' started by The Messiah, Nov 24, 2012.

  1. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Peace in our time? Scientist makes bold prediction that war is on the wane and will halve over next 40 years

    - University of Oslo research suggests number of countries at war will fall from one in six to one in 12

    - Higher education, lower infant mortality and lower population growth are reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future

    - Current conflicts in Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq will probably be over

    - The risk of conflict will be greatest in India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania


    [​IMG]

    It may be difficult to believe, but according to research published next month a world without war may be getting nearer.

    Futurologists from the University of Oslo in Norway and the Peace Research Institute Oslo have predicted that global conflict will halve in the next 40 years.

    Their study claims the combination of higher education, lower infant mortality, smaller youth cohorts, and lower population growth are a few of the reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future.

    That will mean in the next five years the current conflicts in Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq will probably be over, the research suggests.

    As the risk of war decreases worldwide, by 2017 it will be greatest in India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma.

    And by 2050, as the number of countries at war falls from one in six to one in 12, the risk of conflict will be greatest in India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

    The conclusions were made by HÃ¥vard Hegre, a professor in the university's department of political science, who has devised a statistical model in collaboration with Oslo's Peace Research Institute.

    The model, it is claimed, is capable of telling us what is likely to happen in the future.

    'The number of conflicts is falling,' said Professor Hegre. 'We expect this fall to continue. We predict a steady fall in the number of conflicts in the next 40 years.

    'Conflicts that involve a high degree of violence, such as Syria, are becoming increasingly rare.

    'We put a lot of work into developing statistical methods that enable us, with a reasonable degree of certainty, to predict conflicts in the future.

    'A conflict is defined as a conflict between governments and political organisations that use violence and in which at least 25 people die. This means that the model does not cover either tribal wars or solo terrorists like Anders Behring Breivik.

    'In the 1700s it was normal to go to war to expand your country's territory. This strategy has passed its sell by date. But, demands for democracy may be suppressed with violence and result in more violence in the short term. As in Libya.'

    His research has found there has been a decrease in armed conflicts and the number of people killed since World War II and this trend will continue.

    'War has become less acceptable, just like duelling, torture and the death penalty.'

    Infant mortality, calculated by the UN up to 2050, is one of the key factors in Professor Hegre's model.

    'Countries with a high infant mortality rate have a high probability of conflict. Infant mortality is now decreasing everywhere.'

    The UN has also estimated population structure up to 2050. The population is expected to grow, but at a slower pace than today, and the proportion of young people will decrease in most countries, with the exception of countries in Africa.

    The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna has extrapolated the level of education up to 2050.

    The simulation model is also based on the last 40 years' history of conflicts, of all countries and their neighbours in the world, oil resources and ethnicity. The conflict data were collated by the Uppsala University

    'Economic changes in society have resulted in both education and human capital becoming important. A complex economy makes political violence less attractive.

    'It has become too expensive to kill people. Modern society is dependent on economic development. It is too expensive to use violence to destroy this network. It has also become harder to take financial capital by force.

    'It is easy to move capital across national borders. Therefore, a cynical leader will be less likely to choose violence as a strategy.'

    It is hard to discern the most important reason why the future will be more peaceful, but some studies suggest that education is the crucial factor.

    'Education may be a fundamental causal explanation, but this is difficult to show with our methods. Demographers believe that more education leads to fewer children. There are fewer mouths to feed.'

    Another explanation is the UN's peacekeeping operations. The world has become better at employing means of preventing states using violence.

    'The UN operations in Bosnia and Somalia failed. But the UN's operations have been more successful since 2000. Of course, the UN cannot prevent conflicts, but fewer die and the intensity is lower when they intervene.'

    Prof Hegre used data from 1970 to 2000 to check whether or not the conflict model works as intended. He wanted to see if the model could predict the actual conflicts between 2001 and 2009

    'For 2009 we estimated that the likelihood of a conflict was more than 50 per cent in 20 countries. 16 of these countries ended up in a real conflict. We missed by four countries.'

    The simulation programme, which for statistical reasons must be run 18,000 times, was programmed by Joakim Karlsen, a research fellow at Østfold University College.

    But changes had to be made as the on-going instability in the Middle East impacted the model.

    'Prior to the Arabian spring, we expected 5 per cent of the countries in the world to be involved in a conflict in 2050. This percentage has now risen to 7 per cent.

    'The conflicts in the Middle East weaken the clear correlation between socio-economic development and the absence of civil war. The conflicts in Syria and Libya show that we also have to include democratisation processes in the model.

    'To achieve this, we are now working on projecting democratic systems of government and regime changes,' explains Prof Hegre.

    The study is due to be published in the periodical International Studies Quarterly next month.

    Peace in our time? Scientist makes bold prediction that war is on the wane and will halve over next 40 years | Mail Online
     
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  3. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    idiotic prediction.
     
  4. W.G.Ewald

    W.G.Ewald Defence Professionals/ DFI member of 2 Defence Professionals

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Even if the number of conflicts decrease, there is no guarantee that the world becomes safer. WWI was the "war to end all wars."
     
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  5. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Hmm, me thinking the Iraq war was...
     
  6. Tronic

    Tronic Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Looks like Pakistan will soon become a peace abode. ;)
     
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  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Pakistan is not included because it will not exist by the fortnight of a war with India.
     
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  8. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Ok, how? :confused:. Vengeful spirits of dead children?
     
  9. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Since WW II almost all the wars have been started or have had significant involvement of USA or to some extent Islamist forces in different parts of the world - eg Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. India-Pakistan conflicts have been started always by Pakistan.

    Middle East has much lower infant mortality rates and no poverty yet so many conflicts there, so this theory would seem to be not so correct.
     
  10. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    We need WWIII soon. The world's been such a boring place since WWII. Need some action! :noidea:
     
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  11. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Stupid article. If India has a high chance of war, even Pakistan/China should have had an equally high chance. Or else, whom is India going to fight with? Sri Lanka? Nepal? :crazy:
     
  12. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Your math is a bit wonky. India has two antagonists, Pakistan has only one. How can the chance of war be equal for both?
     
  13. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    When the list has only five nations mentioned, I would have expected it to include the antagonists too. And if it is just about "number of antagonists", the probability for China should be much higher than India.
     
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  14. jamesvaikom

    jamesvaikom Regular Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Infant mortality are high in India because many people don't have money to provide enough food and medicines to their children. Crime rate will increase if people find it difficult to survive.
     
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  15. jamesvaikom

    jamesvaikom Regular Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    The main reason for conflicts in Middle East is high population growth. Governments in those countries are sharing a part of profits from public sector oil companies with their citizens. High population growth means people will get less money.

    USA and Israel won't attack Middle East countries if those countries don't support terrorists. Many people in Gaza are killed by Israel. Still they want to fight back. If they had less children they would have given more importance to life and may try to avoid future conflicts.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2012
  16. jamesvaikom

    jamesvaikom Regular Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Wars may reduce. But that doesn't mean casualties will decrease. More people will die in short span of time if terrorists get access to nuclear, biological or chemical weapons.
     
  17. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Long walk Elite Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa


    lol....No Turkey ,No Israel ....No Iran , no JAPAN NO CHINA....


    THREAD BELONGS TO SOME AFRICAN COUNTRIES CONFLICT ...Wondering how India become war with African countries



    But I'm waiting for WWW3
     
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  18. ashicjose

    ashicjose Regular Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Its not going to happenyour anticipation not going to bear fruit, because the world is not the world of yesterday.
     
  19. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Yeah right.

    Oil, Water, Food, natural resources will not lead to any wars because people got educated.
     
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  20. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    Gues who has been going to wars in every decade lately. The one with a great educated, civilized and developed nation's image.
     
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  21. Snuggy321

    Snuggy321 Regular Member

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    Re: Scientist: Wars will half by 2050, India with highest chance of wa

    What is the reason to include India??? Are they referring to the communist cpi trash fighting in the jungles`??
     
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