Satta bazar says Modi likely to get less than 100 seats even - i.e. victory with loss of face (however odds are long on Congress coming anywhere near victory). Do the bookies know something the pollsters do not. Gujarat Assembly Elections 2012: Bookies feel Narendra Modi won't even score 100 AHMEDABAD: Who should you believe? National pollsters or Gujarat's bookies? The pollsters, through exit polls, have predicted 120-140 seats for BJP in the 182-seat state assembly. The latter are offering odds that suggest the party will find it tough to cross 100 seats. If the pollsters are right, Modi's national ambitions get the boost. If the bookies get it right, the Gujarat chief minister may be coping with a win that comes packaged with a loss of face. In the 2007 state elections, the Modi-led BJP had won 117 seats. The future of Modi's career at the national level depends on bettering that performance, or at least not doing worse than 2007. Gujarat's betting market for the elections, say local observers, is big - bets worth around Rs 5,000 crore have been placed. Therefore, big money will change hands in the widely participated but illegal betting market. And that market is pricing a Modi victory margin differently now. An Ahmedabad-based bookie said the higher-than-expected voter turnout of 71% has made him and others offer bigger odds against a big Modi win. Six days ago, bookies were willing to offer 114 paise for every 100 paise bet on BJP winning 100 seats. Today, the betting market is willing to pay 117 paise for 100 paise for the same bet. The higher the payout promised to the punter, the bigger the bookie's confidence that his own prediction - in this case, the BJP will not hit or cross 100 seats - has a better chance than the punter's. Following the same logic the market is ready to pay 250 paise (per 100 paise) if the BJP wins more than 120 seats, which bookies now consider a fairly low probability outcome. Six days ago, the rate was 120-123 paise. The current odds for BJP getting 110 seats have also lengthened. Earlier, punters were offer 145 paise payout for 100 paise bet. Now, they are getting 156 paise for a 100 paise punt on BJP hitting 110. However, the bookies have not altered the 500 paise reward for the Congress winning more than 65 seats - the least likely outcome from the point of view of the betting market. But it's not the Congress' fortunes that either pollsters or bookies are interested in tracking in Gujarat. Come Thursday, the first will win or lose face and reputation, and the second will win or lose face and money.