Satta bazar bets big on Modi to get less than 100 seats

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by parijataka, Dec 19, 2012.

  1. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Satta bazar says Modi likely to get less than 100 seats even - i.e. victory with loss of face (however odds are long on Congress coming anywhere near victory). Do the bookies know something the pollsters do not.

    Gujarat Assembly Elections 2012: Bookies feel Narendra Modi won't even score 100

    AHMEDABAD: Who should you believe? National pollsters or Gujarat's bookies? The pollsters, through exit polls, have predicted 120-140 seats for BJP in the 182-seat state assembly. The latter are offering odds that suggest the party will find it tough to cross 100 seats.

    If the pollsters are right, Modi's national ambitions get the boost. If the bookies get it right, the Gujarat chief minister may be coping with a win that comes packaged with a loss of face.

    In the 2007 state elections, the Modi-led BJP had won 117 seats. The future of Modi's career at the national level depends on bettering that performance, or at least not doing worse than 2007.

    Gujarat's betting market for the elections, say local observers, is big - bets worth around Rs 5,000 crore have been placed. Therefore, big money will change hands in the widely participated but illegal betting market. And that market is pricing a Modi victory margin differently now.

    An Ahmedabad-based bookie said the higher-than-expected voter turnout of 71% has made him and others offer bigger odds against a big Modi win.

    Six days ago, bookies were willing to offer 114 paise for every 100 paise bet on BJP winning 100 seats. Today, the betting market is willing to pay 117 paise for 100 paise for the same bet.

    The higher the payout promised to the punter, the bigger the bookie's confidence that his own prediction - in this case, the BJP will not hit or cross 100 seats - has a better chance than the punter's. Following the same logic the market is ready to pay 250 paise (per 100 paise) if the BJP wins more than 120 seats, which bookies now consider a fairly low probability outcome. Six days ago, the rate was 120-123 paise.

    The current odds for BJP getting 110 seats have also lengthened. Earlier, punters were offer 145 paise payout for 100 paise bet. Now, they are getting 156 paise for a 100 paise punt on BJP hitting 110.

    However, the bookies have not altered the 500 paise reward for the Congress winning more than 65 seats - the least likely outcome from the point of view of the betting market.

    But it's not the Congress' fortunes that either pollsters or bookies are interested in tracking in Gujarat. Come Thursday, the first will win or lose face and reputation, and the second will win or lose face and money.

     
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  3. GPM

    GPM Tihar Jail Banned

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    I think bookies are going to burn their pockets.
     
  4. ganesh177

    ganesh177 Regular Member

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    Exit polls saying bjp wins comfortably again.
     
  5. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Dream on the author of the lead article.

    Another twelve hours and you would have all the results.
     
  6. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Some people dream more........

    Same thing happened against INDIA in World Cup and the Bookies were saying that INDIA will loose and that too in the quarter final or the super 8 stage and rest all his history.....
     
  7. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Two real issues.

    Number of seats
    Voteshare.

    In some cases the party polling the most number of votes isn't usually the winner.
     
  8. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    sishir Gupta is saying satta bazaar bets that modi will get 120 seats
     
  9. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    JP what are your fav twitteratti like semu and albatross saying ? :rofl:
     
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  10. Apollyon

    Apollyon Führer Senior Member

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    I am betting for 130-140 seats for Modi, but lets see what happens. :hmm:
     
  11. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Funny thing Satta Market saying Modi going to lose, and only taking bets on Congress. :troll: Are Gujaratis that dumb, to fall for this trick ?
     
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  12. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Paaji they are sources of Intel.Never dismiss ones sources of info.Sometimes we find diamonds in Dung heaps
     
  13. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    Looks like this news is published to create some chaos and fear in Modi fans. As bookies are also betting that congress won't get more than previous number and giving 500paisa for 65 seats then who'll get the rest of the seats ?? <100+ <65, now who'll get rest 20 seats ?? Keshubapa ?? Dream on people.he's nobody outside some district of saurashtra.
     
  14. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    People on twitter ? why are they doing it ? can they be trusted ? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    My 2 cents.
     
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  15. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    But, MODI will win the election, no doubt.........
     
  16. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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  17. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    You get an idea soon whom to trust and whom not to trust
     
  18. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    sesha_maruthi27 likes this.
  19. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Albat , sisir have been proved wrong previously.
    semu - less said the better.
     
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  20. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    What do you mean to say buddy, is MODI going to loose the election?
     
  21. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    What's the relation between BJP paid twitter account and roads of Gujarat ?? :confused: Even a kid can say this. You think he's lying about roads ?? Even Mallika Sarabhai doesn't deny the fact of roads of Gujarat.
     

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