Russia's pivot towards Pakistan ( view from Russia )

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by warrior monk, Sep 23, 2015.

  1. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2014
    Messages:
    585
    Likes Received:
    730
    Location:
    Odisha
    Pakistan Is The “Zipper” Of Pan-Eurasian Integration

    Perverted in the Western imagination as a backwards land of terrorism and poverty, the mainstream media myth about Pakistan carries little factual weight and purposely neglects the country’s rising geopolitical importance in Eurasia. Far from being a lost cause, the country is actually one of the super continent’s most important economic hopes, as it has the potential to connect the massive economies of the Eurasian Union, Iran, SAARC, and China, thereby inaugurating the closest thing to an integrated pan-Eurasian economic zone. Russia recognizes Pakistan’s prime geopolitical potential and has thus maneuvered to rapidly increase its full-spectrum relations with the South Asian gatekeeper. Russia’s overarching goal, as it is with all of its partners nowadays, is to provide a non-provocative balancing component to buffet Pakistan’s regional political position and assist with its peaceful integration into the multipolar Eurasian framework being constructed by the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership.

    The first part of the article deals with the ‘zipper’ concept of how Pakistan can bring together four of Eurasia’s most prominent economic entities, and then it proceeds to an examination of the budding Russian-Pakistani Strategic Partnership. Part II looks at the topic from a completely different angle, and brainstorms the three most probable ways in which the US can attempt to offset everything that the multipolar is trying to build in Pakistan.

    Zipping Together The Blocs

    Pakistan is uniquely poised to zip together a variety of economic blocs, taking advantage of both its convenient geography and China’s grand investment vision to make it happen:

    Eurasian Union:

    The Russian-led trade organization also comprises Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The latter two theoretically move its potential economic reach closer to South Asia, but the unincorporated nature of Uzbekistan (which is doubtful to join in the near future) and the security problems in Afghanistan pose a major impediment to direct trade with South Asia. Two alternatives have thus developed to deal with these geopolitical obstacles and reach that regional market, and they are the North-South corridor between Russia-Iran-India via the Caspian and Arabian Seas and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC, to be analyzed shortly). Additionally, by bringing the Eurasian Union into contact with SAARC-member Pakistan, a steadfast and growing economy, it can provide a direct trade opening with the rest of the South Asian bloc.

    Iran:

    The Islamic Republic is expected to experience phenomenal economic growth after the sanctions are lifted at the beginning of next year, and all sides are rushing to cash in on the bonanza (especially the West). The Europeans will probably bring their investments directly into the country through financial instruments, but as the Chinese and Indians deal more closely with the real-sector economy, their interests are such that certain physical connective infrastructure must be created to facilitate bilateral trade in the post-sanctions environment.

    Concerning the Chinese, this is the far-reaching Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline (itself an extension of CPEC, and both of which will be described at the end of this section), while for the Indians, this takes the form of both the Chabahar port investment and the undersea Iran-India gas pipeline. In terms of economic efficiency, it would make the most sense for the real-sector and energy trade between Tehran and New Delhi to be conducted through overland routes transiting Pakistan, but for obvious political reasons, this regretfully hasn’t materialized, and thus, Iran and SAARC-leader India’s economic relations must be carried out through the maritime sphere.

    SAARC:

    The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) stretches from Pakistan to Bangladesh, with its largest economy obviously being India. This regional integrational platform has had considerable difficulty achieving its prime goal of closer economic relations among its members, but that doesn’t mean that the potential isn’t there. If the political differences between rivals Pakistan and India could be relaxed (perhaps within the SCO framework), then the organization would finally be able to cash in on its economic capability and fully integrate with itself and the rest of Eurasia.

    SAARC, through its Indian and Bangladeshi members, could possibly increase trade with China through the BCIM corridor between the three and Myanmar, but the scope is limited to India’s Northeast and China’s Yunnan Province (although it of course provides a strong basis for future expansion). The project itself was intended to help grow India and China’s least developed but most promising regions, as well as tighten the economic interrelations between these Eurasian giants. Complementary to these objectives, the need for another corridor is thus apparent, which in this case would be satisfied through CPEC. The purpose behind India’s utilization of this secondary trade route to China would be to connect its most economically productive regions (the parts of the country west of the BCIM’s northeast regional scope) to two of China’s least advanced but most in need of development, Tibet and Xinjiang. While there is certainly the touchy issue of India’s de-facto recognition of Pakistani-administered Kashmir if its companies employ this route, the economic allure might be too tempting to resist.

    The Indian-Iranian integration strategy via Pakistan was already discussed, so rounding out the last vector of how the country could help SAARC expand its external trade ties, one must look towards the Eurasian Union. As earlier spoken about, the North-South Corridor is a logistics network envisioned to eventually connect India and Russia, but as with Indian-Iranian trade, it would be much more efficient to cut out the bimodal form of transportation (sea to land) and deal exclusively with ground-based infrastructure. Thus, the possibility arises whereby Pakistan could find a place along an Indian railroad to Russia that also traverses through Iran and Central Asia. The latter part of the infrastructure network is already in place, since the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran section has recently been up and running. If connective lines can be built from India to Iran via Pakistan, then it’s entirely feasible that India could one day send export its products directly to Russia using this route, without having to go about the circuitous detour of sea-land-sea-land (Arabian Sea-Iran-Caspian Sea-Russia).

    The Vision:

    The catalyst for connecting the four blocs together via Pakistan’s geostrategic location is CPEC, China’s grand vision of establishing a trans-Pakistani trade corridor to cultivate a center of economic gravity that seals everything together. The core of this strategy rests in expanding the Karakoram Highway between both countries and constructing parallel rail, industrial, and pipeline networks from the southern port of Gwadar all the way up to the Chinese border. As Pepe Escobar writes, the energy requirements of this grandiose project are expected to be filled by Iran via the larger Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline project, but a supportive component will also be the world’s largest solar farm that Beijing and Islamabad are also building as part of CPEC.

    This vast multimodal integrational platform will de-facto extend China’s direct economic reach all the way to the Arabian Sea, thus circumventing the Strait of Malacca chokehold and more than compensating for the relative strategic losses that it’s suffered in Myanmar as of late. In a major sense, CPEC represents not only a geopolitical pivot for China, but also a geo-economic one as well, since it’ll position the country within easy access to the Mideast oil fields on which so much of its economy depends (despite Russia’s increasingly important role as the Middle Kingdom’s strategic supplier).

    Additionally, creating a system of real-sector trade infrastructure such as roads and rails between Central Asia (Eurasian Union) and Pakistan (SAARC) intersecting in Xinjiang would lead to enormous economic development in China’s most far-flung and vulnerable province that could also help soothe over the externally orchestrated destabilization that it’s lately found itself experiencing. Should Xinjiang succeed in becoming a significant Eurasian trading hub in connecting China, the Eurasian Union, SAARC, and Iran, then it would catapult in geo-economic significance and become an extension of the supercontinental and ultra-strategic Heartland region.

    The Russian-Pakistani Strategic Partnership

    South Asian geopolitics have traditionally been marked by the fraternal relations between Russia and India, ties which previously would have made any Russian-Pakistani strategic partnership unthinkable, but the evolving multipolar world has reworked the region’s political models and is making for some very exciting future possibilities. To introduce the dynamics taking place before the world’s eyes, Russia and Pakistan are clearly moving closer to one another, and this is occurring despite Russia being “India’s closest friend”. This trend might appear somewhat perplexing to one unaccustomed to the region’s happenings, so it’s worthwhile to succinctly describe the current state of play in South Asia so that one can better grasp why this development actually isn’t all that unexpected, and how it’s not motivated by any negative intentions towards India.

    The State Of Play:

    South Asia’s geopolitics were transformed by the end of the Cold War and the subsequent nuclear bipolarity that arose between India and Pakistan. The conclusion of the global ideological stand-off lessened the intensity of the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership and the US’ dealings with Pakistan, as South Asia was no longer seen as a priority area of foreign policy focus by either superpower after that time. As a result, India began to drift westward at the same time that Pakistan was moving eastward, with New Delhi looking towards Washington while Islamabad embraced Beijing. This doesn’t mean that either of them completely turned their backs on their historical partners (Russia and the US, respectively), but that the changing global context forced them to adapt to a new reality of relations that continued the furtherance of their national self-interests.

    By 2015, this process had progressed to the point that Pakistan is a stalwart Chinese ally and India is a civilizational pole balancing between the US and Russia. Prime Minister Modi has been practicing multipolarity to its theoretical fullest, strengthening his country’s militarytechnical partnership with Russia at the same time as it economically and strategically pivots towards supporting American objectives vis-à-vis the containment of China. From India’s perspective, Pakistan is a proxy of China and undermines its western border security, while China and Pakistan see India as an American partner managing both of them on Washington’s Lead From Behind behalf. The antagonism between both South Asian states hasn’t subsided, but they seem to be willing to give multilateral Eurasian institutionalism a chance as evidenced by their joint admission to the SCO.

    The Kremlin’s Calculations:

    In terms of how this all relates to Russia, Moscow has strong ties with Beijing and New Delhi, thus bestowing it with the potential to intermediate between the two and ensure that bilateral tension doesn’t spill over into something worse. What Russia doesn’t have is the ability to do the same between India and Pakistan, thus inviting a non-Eurasian super polity (the US) into the mix and giving it plenty of opportunity to divide and conquer according to the present geopolitical circumstances. The thinking goes that if Russia were to compensate for its diplomatic ‘blind spot’ with Pakistan and reinvigorate the bilateral relationship with Islamabad, then it could mirror the role that it plays between India and China in also helping to balance the tension between India and Pakistan.


    If successful, then this strategy would progressively press the US out of the playing field, as although India will still retain its current level of ties with the US (or something similar to it), it would have less of a need for it in the sense of counterbalancing Pakistan, since both itself and Islamabad would have the same trusted partner, Russia, which would work to keep tensions between the two as low as possible (like how it does with India and China). The lack of trust between India and Pakistan is the weakest link in the ‘zipper’ vision, since even though it could still survive without the SAARC component and profit greatly, all of its parts (and especially the Eurasian Union) would be stronger with India’s physical incorporation into this unified infrastructural framework. With this future awareness in mind, and combined with its multipolar ideology and Great Power revival, Russia has a clear impetus to diplomatically and strategically intercede to the best of its capacity in keeping Indian-Pakistan tensions at a minimum in order to maximize the economic benefit of their peaceful collaboration.


    Russian Moves:

    The above paragraphs explain the reasoning behind Russia’s decision to initiate a strategic partnership with Pakistan, so it’s now time to look at exactly what sorts of moves Moscow has made in this direction. The first step that really got observers talking was Russia’s decision in June 2014 to begin discussions with Pakistan about the sale of attack helicopters to assist with drug-combating efforts. Being described as a “paradigm shift”, some thought that it was motivated by Russia’s concerns that Afghanistan’s destabilization will rapidly move cross-border after the NATO drawdown at the end of that year, but as was described previously, it can also be strongly inferred that another strategic motivation was to eventually balance India and Pakistan and make the multipolar world even more cohesive as a result.

    It’s not just military relations that are deepening between the two, as Russia plans to put its technical expertise to work in building a portion of the Iran-Pakistan-China gas pipeline in the near future.

    Sensing enormous economic opportunities and seeing the writing on the wall for what will transpire after CPEC is completed, Pakistan expressed its eagerness to seal a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Union, signifying how serious it takes the evolving partnership between the two. Rounding out the new relationship and adding a soft power touch, both sides are preparing for their first-ever cultural exchange year, and in a symbolic sign of what’s likely to come, Pakistan’s national military band performed at the Moscow International Music Festival. There should thus be no doubt at this point about the commitment of both sides to deepening relations with the other, and their mutual interactions are far from a passing trend or temporary convergence of business interests. Like the article argues, both sides understand the larger significance of what they’re doing, which in the overall sense of things is to facilitate their shared vision of an integrated and multipolar Eurasia.

    Closing The Corridor

    As ambitious as CPEC and the ‘zipper’ plan are, there remain three primary categories of complications that could get in the way and ruin the entire Eurasian enterprise, or at the very least, deal a heavy integrational blow to it either through Pakistan’s domestic destabilization and/or India’s refusal to participate:

    Diplomatic Clumsiness:

    One of the major strategic risks to pan-Eurasian integration inherent to Russia and Pakistan’s budding relationship is that Moscow risks pushing New Delhi closer into the hands of Washington. This could realistically occur through the unintentional creation of a security dilemma (provoked by the US and its information proxies) and an exaggerated Indian threat assessment of Russia’s activities. If the Indian political establishment feels that Russia is ‘sliding away’ towards the China-Pakistan ‘axis’ (as it views it), then it’ll conversely speed up its strategic dealings with the US. This would consequently negate one of the main reasons behind the Russian-Pakistan strategic partnership, which as stated, is to place Moscow in a position to intermediate between New Delhi and Islamabad and keep regional relations stable enough so as to jump start the envisioned multilateral economic partnership.

    If Russia somehow bungles the entire thing (or what would be more likely, the US sabotages it through the mechanisms that will be described soon), then it would be worse off than if it hadn’t even begun what in hindsight would then look like its failed Pakistani gambit. This is because it would have lost a major strategic partner in India while only gaining a lesser one through Pakistan, which it must be said will never see its relations with Russia as being on an equal level as those that it has with China. Therefore, the most important thing that Russia must do throughout this entire process is take heed in proceeding delicately and with consideration to how influential decision makers in the Indian establishment are viewing its evolving partnership with Pakistan. Additionally, since it’s expected that the US will try to split Russia and India through Pakistan in a similar way as it did with Russia and the EU through Ukraine (although for different reasons and through incomparable contexts), Moscow must be aware of Washington’s information warfare against it on this front and needs to remain in steady contact with its closest counterparts in New Delhi so as to dispel any false inferences when they arise and reassure its partners of the lasting integrity of the fraternal Russian-Indian relationship.

    American Influence:

    Following off of the inferences hinted at above, it’s absolutely expected that the US will continue to insert itself between Russia and India with the intent of dividing the two once and for all. There are two specific ways in which it can do this other than the generalized information war that should be taken as a given. The first thing that most readers may not be aware of is just how significant of an inroad the US has made in supplying the Indian defense industry, having now become its largest arms supplier since 2014 and supplying 12% of the country’s total stock. This is still a far throw away from Russia’s whopping 70% of market dominance, but as India’s aging Soviet-era weaponry is replaced with newer American and Israeli munitions (Tel Aviv’s largest arms customer is India), the emerging trend is obviously not to Russia’s favor, and could have potentially played a part in influencing its decision to resume arms exports to Pakistan (which initiated the growing strategic partnership in the first place). The saliency in this underreported military development is that the US is making itself more integral to India’s national security, and this coincides with New Delhi’s strategic overlap with the US in containing China. The longer this progresses, the further the US will embed itself into India’s deep state apparatus, with all of the misfortunate foreign policy consequences for the multipolar world.

    The second and potentially most direct means by which the US can influence India away from Russia is through the personal rapport shared between Modi and Obama. The two leaders have publicly expressed their mutual chemistry for one another, with Obama even writing a short fluff piece about Modi for Time Magazine last spring. Their close interpersonal relations first made public headlines after Modi’s visit to Washington last fall, where the two strolled along the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial and appeared quite chummy with one another. When Obama visited India to attend its Republic Day parade in January, the media was in such a state of ecstasy that they even termed the political couple “Mobama”. Although the entire friendship could be an exaggerated charade for political purposes, there’s nothing tangible to indicate that this is the case, since by all measures, the two leaders really do appear to be honest friends and get along quite well with one another. By itself, this doesn’t pose any worries for Russia, but the problem predictably arises when Obama leverages his friendship with Modi in order to enact certain policy shifts from India, such as his encouragement of the Prime Minister’s Act East policy solely because of the unstated reason that can aggravate relations with China. When Obama finally attempts to resort to personal diplomacy with Modi in order to encourage him to ‘adjust’ India’s relations with Russia in a comparable manner, that’s precisely the moment when Russian interests are most endangered by the US ‘winning over’ India into viewing the Russian-Pakistan strategic partnership as a threat. The only suitable deterrent to this scenario is for Putin to continually reinforce his relationship with Modi so that the latter is insusceptible to being tricked by Obama into doubting the Russian President’s intentions.

    Playing Dirty

    Being the divide-and-conquer master that it is, the US undoubtedly has a few dirty tricks up its sleeve for preventing Pakistan from fulfilling its geo-economic destiny:

    Seccessionism:

    The Baluchistan separatist issue is an ever-present thorn in Pakistan’s side. The country’s largest province, it’s scarcely populated but is important for its geostrategic location (it abuts Iran and is home to Gwadar port) and mineral reserves. It’s also been the scene of an off-and-on secessionist war that’s at times employed terrorist tactics, such as last month when an armed group attacked an airport. Pakistan insists that India is behind the latest spate of terrorism there, but whether or not that’s the case, the likelihood of American involvement in strategically guiding the events must also be considered.


    This isn’t just because of the competitive advantages that the US would procure vis-à-vis destabilizing Gwadar and the source of CPEC, nor solely due to the political benefits of a fragmented and domestically distracted Pakistan. What really drives American interest in fostering a full-scale Baluch separatist war against Pakistan is the transnational nature that such a campaign would inevitably have, as the region of Baluchistan technically transcends the Iranian-Pakistani border and is present in both states.


    Therefore, the US could draw the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan into the fray, which would have the combined effect of also endangering India’s Chabahar port and upsetting plans to link it to the regional capital and rail hub of Zahedan (and by extension, onwards to the Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia line). By keeping India’s Iranian- and Russian-directed infrastructure investments under America’s thumb via Baluch proxy, the US can also exert a sharper degree of influence over New Delhi (as well as Tehran). Tellingly, it should also be mentioned that Ralph Peters’ infamous “Blood Borders” map detailing “How A Better Middle East Would Look” specifically earmarks a “Free Baluchistan” carved out of Iranian and Pakistani territory as one of its key components.

    Terrorism:

    While the Baluch separatist scenario has certainly proved itself capable of resorting to terrorist tactics, what will be described in this section is the more ‘traditional’ terrorist threat that Pakistan has been defending against, which is militant Islamic radicalism. Its existence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the hideouts that it has across the border in Afghanistan have proved to be an impactful factor of destabilization in Pakistan over the past decade, and it’s also the reason why the military can’t fully concentrate on the Baluch separatists and quickly snuff them out.

    As dangerous as this threat already is, it can actually get much worse, and that’s because of the presence of ISIL in Afghanistan and its expansive neo-Caliphate ideology. The group is already present in the three provinces of Farah (west), Helmand (south), and Nangarhar (east), with the last one being the most important in terms of how it relates to Pakistan. ISIL has proclaimed its intention to eliminate the Durand Line and “annex” the ‘state of Hind’ (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar), so it’s likely to use Nangarhar province as a staging ground for pushing deeper into Pakistan as it attempts to further this (unrealistic) goal. If more Taliban fighters defect to the up-and-coming group and this eventually comes to affect Pakistani-based militants as well, then it’s possible that a rear fifth column of fighters could suddenly ‘pop up’ in the country at a moment’s notice, creating a transnational ‘mini-Caliphate’ between Nangarhar and parts of FATA and evoking strong shades of ISIL’s prior successes along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    The southern-eastern vector isn’t the only direction that ISIL can go in expanding past Afghanistan, however, as the defection of Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov, the head of Tajikistan’s internal special forces, to the terrorists back in May indicates that they might have gained invaluable intelligence about that country that could be exploited in the near future. For example, if anti-government terrorists such as the followers of the late former Deputy Defense Minister Abduhalim Nazarzoda succeed in destabilizing the state even more than they already have, then an opening might develop for ISIL to apply Khalimov’s knowledge in infiltrating the country from Afghanistan and entrenching itself in the most ‘ideal’ location (likely the barely populated Gorno-Badakhstan autonomous region). If this occurs concurrently with unrest in Southern Kyrgyzstan potentially stemming from a Color Revolution attempt during the upcoming general elections (which the US might provoke as revenge for Kyrgyzstan denouncing its cooperation agreement with the US, among other reasons), then it’s possible that a quadrilateral South-Central Asian Caliphate could emerge along the largely inaccessible and heavily fortified Pamir and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, with Pakistan being the southern peg of this vile construction.

    Color Revolution 1.5:

    The last disruptive scenario that could derail Pakistan’s geo-economic destiny is a Color Revolution against Prime Minister Sharif or any of his successors. The violent protests against him right around this time last year prompted the BBC to jump the gun by prematurely declaring that he’s “cornered”, with the Washington Post echoing the apparently imminent overthrow of his administration by describing him as “cling[ing] to power”. The doom and gloom scenario didn’t pan out, however, and the protests eventually dissipated into nothing, but the lesson learnt was that a Color Revolution scenario is disturbingly real in one of the world’s most populous and geostrategic countries.

    At this stage, it’s not yet possible to foretell the exact contours of how the follow-up attack will look, but if the newest wave of Color Revolution attempts is any indication (some of which may potentially be test runs to refine the political technology prior to a more serious implementation), then it might likely embrace “anti-corruption” slogans and be led by an amorphous and superficially apolitical “civil society”. This structural innovation allows the coup’s leaders to readjust their social infrastructure (leadership, members, slogans, etc.) on the fly a lot more efficiently than if they followed the comparatively rigid practices of their predecessors in organizing the event around clearly defined political parties led by a few well-known (and easily compromised) individuals.

    Color Revolution 1.5 (epitomized by “Electric Yerevan”, and which is what would likely be deployed in Pakistan if the US places the order) is thus halfway between the comparatively ‘docile’ Color Revolution 1.0 of 2003 Georgia and the out-of-control Hybrid War mayhem of Color Revolution 2.0 in EuroMaidan. Being positioned right between these two extremes, it can proceed either way, for example, towards 1.0 if it sputters out like in Armenia (or wants to misleadingly give that impression), or towards 2.0 if it dangerously intensifies like it did in Syria. Therefore, Color Revolution 1.5 could become a dangerous innovation to regime change strategy if its chaotic dynamics of alternation can be mastered, and the US commits to fully supporting one of its iterations after the necessary field data from Macedonia, Armenia, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Moldova has been processed and applied (perhaps to one of these relatively smaller targets before being perfected and repackaged to Pakistan).

    Concluding Thoughts

    One of the primary themes of the 21st century is shaping up to be Eurasian integration, in the sense of establishing a supercontinental-wide economic space. The EU is presently being kept out of this exciting process out of its own prerogative, having succumbed to American pressure to mistakenly believe that its economic future resides in the trans-Atlantic direction instead of the trans-Eurasian one. Nonetheless, the rest of the main continental economic powers – the Eurasian Union, Iran, SAARC, and China – stand poised for closer integration with one another owing to the infrastructural overlap that Pakistan’s geostrategic location provides.


    Understanding the pivotal importance of Pakistan and also eager to build a foundation of political trust with its leadership so as to better assist in managing Pakistani-Indian tensions, Moscow took the bold step in reaching to Islamabad and soliciting a strategic partnership. The quick pace that it’s developed over the past year suggests that this revolutionary relationship is a natural fit for both partners, but their solidifying partnership has incited the US’ geopolitical jealousy, which is keen to call upon a mixed bag of secessionist, terrorist, and Color Revolution destabilizations to offset Pakistan’s catalytic role in bringing Eurasia together. If these threats can properly be defended against, perhaps with unified trilateral assistance from Russia, China, and Iran, then Pakistan can prevail in becoming Eurasia’s economic ‘zipper’ and linking these (and perhaps even SAARC’s) economies together in an emboldened multipolar future.


    http://en.riss.ru/analysis/18882/?_utl_t=tw
     
    blue marlin likes this.
  2.  
  3. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2014
    Messages:
    585
    Likes Received:
    730
    Location:
    Odisha
    The whole tone and tenor of the article from a Russian govt Think tank seems to suggest Russia clearly endorses Pakistan's point of view and its make belief economic and strategic importance :crazy::crazy::crazy::crazy::crazy::crazy::crazy:and is showing disregard for India's strategic implications .
    Russia seems to forget India is the Second biggest economy in the whole Eurasian region ( after China) bigger than Russia and will be twice the size of Russian economy in the next 5 years .
    The whole Eurasian region is filled with flawed economies suffering from Dutch disease excepting China and India and they are busy planning to antagonize India.

    Oh how the mighty have fallen......
     
  4. Nicky G

    Nicky G Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,381
    Likes Received:
    1,226
    Location:
    NA
    Is this from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies which advises Putin? If so, he seems to be listening.

    People here seem to wish to discount or dismiss the Su-35 sales, but they ignore the underlying shift which does seem to be inevitable. Russia-China nexus is staring us in the face and adding Pak to it is not as much of a stretch as we seem to think.

    As for the article, there are so many unsubstantiated assumptions and inevitable blunders in this thought process that is hard to imagine this would come from a respected Russian think-tank; then again, may be not.

    Most significantly, how deluded is Russia to believe that they are in any position to mediate issues between China and India, let alone they'd be able to do any such thing with respect to Indo-Pak relations?

    At least the article outlines that the risk that they might end up losing India and gaining the pariah Pak in the process.

    Ultimately, it all seems to be their inevitable dependence on the Chinese. Despite the humiliations China has put on Putin, having him sit through a parade when cheap copies of Russian jets fly buy a recent one, and haggling over oil prices etc., Russia has very limited options after the west has frozen it out.

    Moving on to what India can do, unfortunately, in the short run, apart from buying more western stuff, not much that I see. It will still be decades before we are close to self reliant in cutting edge technologies and that's assuming we don't have governments that ignore our defense. The Russians also know that India is stuck with their hardware that we are operating and building to operate. After all, who else is going to lease us a nuke sub? If any western power is, lets hear it.

    Perhaps, Modi's meet with Putin in December will clarify things on Su-35 and if its more than pressure tactics on FGFA or even Su-35 itself, but we should no longer ignore the larger picture.
     
  5. Mikesingh

    Mikesingh Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,061
    Likes Received:
    1,332
    Pakistan Is The “Zipper” Of Pan-Eurasian Integration??

    The author needs to zipper up instead! This is mostly balderdash, far removed from reality.
     
  6. DingDong

    DingDong Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2014
    Messages:
    2,227
    Likes Received:
    3,664
    Location:
    Delhi
    Pakistan Is The “Zipper” Of Pan-Eurasian Integration.

    And Russia is what? The next Economic Superpower?

    Russia must mind it's own business, stabilize it's neighbourhood and take care of it's failing economy instead of poking nose in India's backyard. Russia is staring at another implosion and it's Nuclear Stockpile will not save it.

    Putin has finally lost his marbles.
     
    fyodor likes this.
  7. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    439
    Likes Received:
    326
    Location:
    USA
    It is just one article written by this guy:

    [​IMG]

    He doesn't exactly represent all of Russia. He's a freelance writer for many blogs and websites.

    After reading: "Perverted in the Western imagination as a backwards land of terrorism and poverty, the mainstream media myth about Pakistan carries little factual weight"

    I knew he didn't know much on the subject he was talking about.
     
  8. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    8,936
    Likes Received:
    10,289
    Location:
    India
    Check where this guy is getting funding from.

    This guy forgot Pakis claim to have broken might USSR on their own.Seems like this loony would invite some 9/11 to Moscow sooner or later the way they are thinking of a "strategic" stuff from Pakistan.
     
    sesha_maruthi27 likes this.
  9. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2012
    Messages:
    6,678
    Likes Received:
    6,658
    Putin has been there for too long in the Kremlin. May be he is getting old and stupid.
     
  10. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    3,172
    Likes Received:
    422
    Let's check:
    No.1 weapons and related technologies supplier for both sides;
    Important oil supplier for both sides and potentially most important oil supplier for both sides in the future;
    Rich of various resources which desperately demanded by Chinese and India industries;
    World No.2 military power;
    World No.3 political power;
    Most influential country in central Asia and important player in Middle East;
    One of P5
    ......
    With all these, yes, Russia is in a very strong position to mediate issues between China and India.
     
    Sylex21 likes this.
  11. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,640
    Likes Received:
    17,125
    Location:
    EST, USA
    In a way, it is true that Pakistan is “Zipper” Of Pan-Eurasian Integration.

    • Pakistan sits like a wedge between India and Iran, both on good terms with Russia, and with each other.
    • Pakistan cuts off India from former Russia, or former Soviet Central Asia.
    • Pakistan gives access to PRC via the Indian territories it controls.
    • Pakistan is an accessory of PRC, and that keeps India in check.
    • Pakistan is an accessory of the US, and that encourages friction with Iran and India.
    • Pakistan is an accessory of the Saudi led Sunni world, and that keeps Iran in check.

    So, I partially agree with the analysis here. Pakistan is a problem. However, can this zipper be closed? I think this zipper needs to be fixed. So, what is the solution?

    Now, the solution is not to arm Pakistan. The solution is to weaken it and dissolve it. That is the only solution India has to seek, and it might have to wait a while for the correct time, and it might have to fight it out alone.
     
  12. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,618
    Likes Received:
    3,226
    Location:
    N/A
    Aren't we buying apaches from US. So there is no need to cry now, if Russia sells something to Pak. If we can stop by giving deals to Russia then do it.
     
    parijataka likes this.
  13. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,640
    Likes Received:
    17,125
    Location:
    EST, USA
    This is not a permanent solution to buy more from Russia just to stop them from selling to Pakistan.

    India must uphold its interests first. India cannot always please Russia while sacrificing its interests. That is why, India bought those GE-F404 engines from the US, because it supports our indigenous fighter aircraft. By the same logic, Indians need to quit whining, like some did, when Russia sold RD-93 engines to Pakistan. Russia is entitled to safeguarding its interests just as much as India is.

    The destiny, to me, is clear. India will have to, today or tomorrow, stop buying weapons from Russia, and start making them in India. So, India will have to get used to Russia, US, and other countries selling weapons to Pakistan.
     
  14. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,618
    Likes Received:
    3,226
    Location:
    N/A
    The only draw back Pakistan making a block of Russia, China and Pak against US and India will be left , with Japan in the region. That's the nightmare.
     
  15. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,640
    Likes Received:
    17,125
    Location:
    EST, USA
    I don't think US and India can ever be clubbed together. India will be left alone. From what I have seen of US flip-flop foreign policy since 1935, I don't expect the US to act predictably. To your moot point, yes, it will be a nightmare, but a very bad one at that. IMHO, India needs to pull all stops to destabilize as much of Pakistan as possible, regardless of whether Pakistan has nukes or not. The objective is a physical connection with Afghanistan, thereby, cutting off Pakistan from PRC.
     
  16. Abhijat

    Abhijat Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2014
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    350
    Location:
    Nothingness
  17. rohit.gr77

    rohit.gr77 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2015
    Messages:
    134
    Likes Received:
    108
    Location:
    Mumbai
    Just need to take back Gilgit Baltistan and POK, and then nobody would even look towards Pakistan. :shoot:
     
    raja696 likes this.
  18. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2013
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    454
    Location:
    India
    i really worry that like the syrian crisis and refugees entering into europe (and similar reasons) the same might happen where pakis want to and will try and enter into india and india will allow it in some camps near the border.

    and unlike Russia in syria there must be United Nations that step onto the soil of Pakistan and do the needful ...
     
  19. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2012
    Messages:
    6,678
    Likes Received:
    6,658
    India do not need to align with anyone, a little bit of US support for a few years is enough. If the current economic conditions persist, India would double its size of economy in 10 years, while China would be somewhat stagnant and Russia would go further down the drain while Pak is insignificant player.

    Russia has decided to continue its old rivalry with the west and in this game has finally decided to play as a pawn in Chinese hands. Now, the question is how long can Russia play that role? Given its geopolitical dreams, I do not think Russia would cede its entire hegemony to China any time soon. It might play hard ball with India, but would not antagonize India completely. And that would keep it closer to India, no matter what the Chinese offers.

    All in all, interesting times ahead. If India can play it right, it stands to gain the maximum from all these developments. Be favourite of US and Japan and friendly with Russia.
     
    Illusive, Screambowl, pmaitra and 2 others like this.
  20. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2014
    Messages:
    585
    Likes Received:
    730
    Location:
    Odisha
    Russians have resuscitated Halford Mackinder 's heartland theory which is a heady concoction of Geographical determinism and Realpolitik or maybe they have never given up on that , since the creation of Soviet Union as a geographical pivot to the world in the creation of a pan Eurasian unity.
    Even Hitler's Nazi war machine gulped down the theory in toto and what we saw is a naked dance of destruction in 1940s.
    Russians should understand that pan Eurasia dream will remain a dream without the reconciliation of China and India and defanging of Pakistan which is the weakest link in the whole chain .
     
  21. Yumdoot

    Yumdoot Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2015
    Messages:
    777
    Likes Received:
    645
    That is valid. But the most useful military items with the best value for money come from the Russians. Only they face the kind of problems we do - Major competition and little money. What you produce is a major function of what resources you have in hand.

    Even in your example of F-404 for LCA if you remember it was DRDO that wanted to collaborate with Americans, little realizing that their work would be confiscated just like that. Later when Kaveri was in difficulties it was the IAF that rooted for Snecma's hot section and look what happened with the mythical Snecma collaboration. Ultimately when the IAF was not interested in LCA the GTRE people had to land up in Russia for high altitude tests because that was the only inexpensive solution available.

    Its pretty much the same with every item.

    >First the political leadership for most part is a sell out.
    >Then they influence a select few in the armed forces and these select few help skew all debate towards dependence
    >Then seeing all this bandar-baant, our scientists begin to think that the only way they can do science is by turning a national project into a science project.
    >Finally if somebody still tries to set things right he will end up with international exigencies in his hands.
    >Then somebody will use all the confusion to tell us how 'high quality will beat high quantity'. Aur gayi bhains pain mein - ab doh lo jitna doodh dho sakte ho.

    Ultimately we will end up highly expensive and low on numbers weapons and rest of the world will treat us as net-demanders of security.

    Then somebody yet again will stand up and tell us how we can be net-providers of security if we vote a certain way, hire out our interests to sanction imposing countries and send our soldiers as their foot-solders. At this point somebody will also point out how our soldiers can make good money for their UN postings and how this is desirable for all those who care for the betterment of our soldiers. Never mind the fact that the soldiers don't have enough of anything now because everything is so goddamned expensive.

    Kya nanga nahayega kya nichodega.

    But you are right the only real solution to our problems is more indigenization across the board. Import only as much as is necessary and cut back on all demands.
     

Share This Page