Russian Military Is Buying Over 500 New Aircraft

W.G.Ewald

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The Russian Military Is Buying Over 500 New Aircraft - Business Insider
In a post on his blog, Ilya Kramnik today made a set of predictions regarding upcoming procurement plans for the Russian air force. Here's a translation:

Combat aircraft:

a second contract for 48 Su-35s in 2014 or 2015, with deliveries in 2016-20.
a second contract for 24-32 Su-30SMs for naval aviation in 2013-2014, with deliveries in 2015-18.
accepting the option on 16 more Su-34s, in addition to 124 already ordered, with deliveries through 2020. An additional large contract may be concluded after 2015, so that the air force has a total of 180-200 Su-34s by 2025.
a contract for 48-72 MiG-35s in 2014-15, with deliveries through 2020. Without such a contract, MiG may have to be shut down.
a second contract for 12-16 MiG-29Ks for naval aviation is also likely.
a contract for 32-40 Su-25SM(or TM)/UBMs, with deliveries in 2017-22.
two contracts for T-50 fifth-generation fighter jets. First one would be 8-12 aircraft for the Lipetsk combat training center. That contract is likely to be concluded in 2013, with deliveries in 2014-16. A second contract for 40-60 aircraft is likely to be concluded in 2015, with deliveries scheduled for 2016-22.

Transport and special aircraft:

Contract for 30-40 Il-76MD-90As in 2013, with deliveries in 2016-20.
Contract for 10 An-124-300s in 2015, with deliveries in 2018-22.
Contract for 30-40 An-70s in 2015, with deliveries in 2019-25.
25-30 special purpose Tu-204/214s, with deliveries in 2015-25.
Contract for 100 multi-functional transport aircraft in 2015, with delivery of the first 30 in 2019-25.
Contract for 40 light transport aircraft in 2015, with deliveries in 2019-24. Strong possibility that these will be foreign aircraft, such as the Italian C-27J Spartan, assembled in Russia under license.
 

p2prada

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I disagree with three points in his analysis.

a second contract for 48 Su-35s in 2014 or 2015, with deliveries in 2016-20.
a second contract for 24-32 Su-30SMs for naval aviation in 2013-2014, with deliveries in 2015-18.
Executing contracts during the same year as PAKFA's induction for the same class of inferior fighters and inducting the same number of Flankers as PAKFAs. No chance. Russia can better utilize that money to kick start the 5th gen LFI with MiG.

contract for 48-72 MiG-35s in 2014-15, with deliveries through 2020. Without such a contract, MiG may have to be shut down.
Not if MiG is allowed to start the LFI program. There is a high chance MiG may develop new UCAVs for the VVS as is expected. Considering the Mig-35 contract is required in 2014-15 period, that is at the same time as PAKFA completes development, the Russians can easily start a new 5th gen development while Sukhoi concentrates on the 5th gen Su-25.

Mig-35 can find an export market instead.
 

Austin

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There is no chance that a new Light Fighter will be developed by Mig or Sukhoi , The GPV-2020 has no funding for it and they have already mentioned that no such program exists.

The only program funded by RuAF and MOD is PAK-FA , CAS fighter ( to replace Su-25 ) and PAK-DA program.

There is really no need for them to fund another program since it required enormous fund to fund a program that VVS does not need it.

They are better off funding Su-35 , Mig-35 and PAK-FA in a Hi-LO category plus Su-34 for Tactical Bombing Role.
 

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