Russian forces 'could take eastern European capitals in three days'

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by Kshatriya87, Feb 5, 2016.

  1. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-three-days/articleshow/50860394.cms?from=mdr

    Russian forces could reach the outskirts of the Baltic capitals in less than 60 hours because Nato lacks the forces to defend its eastern-most members, new analysis has shown.

    According to several war games scenarios conducted by a US think-tank, it would take between 36 and 60 hours for Russian battalions to occupy the Estonian and Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga.

    It highlights, the report says, how ineffective Nato's forces have become, as they would be entirely under-prepared for any potential attack launched by Moscow.

    The report comes amid rapidly declining relations between Putin and the West.

    This week, it emerged Sweden has re-militarised an old Cold War frontier base on the island of Gotland, in response to what it believes to be a rising threat from Russia, the BBC reports.

    Sweden's Supreme Commander, General Micael Byden, said: "This is one of the great challenges right now: What are they up to, and why do they do it?"

    The analysis by the army research division of the Rand Corporation predicted Russia would most likely launch a two-pronged assault across the Latvian border, sending heavily-armed battalions in a pincer movement towards Riga, fighting Latvian and Nato battalions along the way.

    Once Latvia was secured, the remainder of Russia's 27 manoeuvre battalions would cross into Estonia to take the ethnic Russian north-East, before heading to Tallinn.

    The 16-page analysis, carried out between 2014 and 2015, warns even a combination of US and Baltic troops with US air support would do little to stop Russia advancing - as Nato's ground forces are no match for Russia's battalions.

    It notes Nato's 12 battalions have no battle tanks, with only one heavily armoured Stryker battalion, while all of Russia's 27 maneuver battalions have heavily-armoured battle tanks.

    The report concludes: "The games' findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, Nato cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members."

    In such a scenario, Nato would be left with the options of either choosing defeat - with "predictably disastrous consequences for the Alliance and, not incidentally, the people of the Baltics" - or launching a costly counter attack, which could lead to nuclear escalation.

    To defend against the Russian threat, the report suggests Nato would have to increase its deterrent force in the region.

    It argues artillery and air forces supported by seven brigades, three of them heavily armoured, would be enough to deter Russia. Such a force would cost around $2.7 billion (£1.85 billion) a year.

    Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 caused the US to start the European Reassurance Initiative, with President Obama warning Russia had taken an "aggressive posture" near Nato countries.

    The Initiative commits "a persistent US air, land and sea presence in the region, especially in Central and Eastern Europe" for allies "now deeply concerned by Russia's occupation an dattempted annexation of Crimea and other provocative actions in Ukraine".
    Last year, a London think-tank warned war games conducted by Russia and Nato in Europe were making conflict more likely, by "contributing to a climate of mistrust" and leading to "dangerous close encounters" between Russian and Nato forces.
     
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  3. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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  4. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    It's true Russia can do this, but do they want to?

    Check out who has moved towards whom during the last 2 decades (Hint: Not russia)
    Neither is russia looking for more enemies nor are eastern euro countries worth anything from a strategic pov. :lol:
    What they might like is Tsarograd aka constantinople aka Istanbul.
     
  5. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    There is a bomb called JDAM which can kill 40 tanks in one go, that is literally a Tank regiment in one go.

    Russians may gain some territories if war happens, but they cannot sustain the war against 14 Trillion US + 13 Trillion EU economies.
     
  6. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    That is what I came to my mind first. (Not about the bomb, I didn't know about it). Russia can quickly take territory but sustaining it will be difficult. Question is, will US & Europe risk that kind of economic, resources and manpower investment for the eastern european countries?
     
  7. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    I do not think Putin will go to war !
     
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  8. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    On a separate note, why doesn't pak go for this bomb instead of developing tacticals? Both will serve the same purpose eventually wouldn't they? Actually, JDAM would be more effective that tacticals.
     
  9. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Of course he won't. At least not right now when he is already engaged in sanctions, syria, crimea & Ukrainian rebellion. This is just a hypothetical study anyways.
     
  10. Razor

    Razor CIDs from Tamilnadu Senior Member

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    Can you tell me why Russia would take territory in the East europe?
    Resources? Highly unlikely that they have anything that russia doesn't.
    Living space for people. Russia got plenty of that.

    Russia actually doesn't want any east euro land. This line of thinking is actually NATO propaganda trying to project a cold war villain type image of russia. And the fact that this newspaper is publishing these things might be an indication of the realignment process in play. i.e. india realigning itself to the west.

    In anycase what russia wants is the good will of east euros which they aren't going to get, because the euros are heavily brainwashed by NATO gang, for half a century about the russian aggressor.

    Now russia has taken kazakhstan and most of caspian (read EEU)
    This means access to Central asia, West asia, xinjiang (China) etc. This means more geopolitical leverage and more access to resources that even the whole of europe can not offer (eg: Kazakhstan has 1/6th of world uranium reserves.)
     
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  11. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I never said they want it or they are going to. I said this is a hypothetical study. Conversation itself is hypothetical analysis.

    Replying to your question. They don't need it but like some popular thinking they might be interested in re-vitalizing the Soviet Union dreams. Claiming the territory just because it belonged to them "once upon a time".
     
  12. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Yes, Russia can take Baltika (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania together is Baltika). The joke is, it is so small, that it fits in a bottle.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    A hypothetical study or a scheme to squeeze and arm even tiny nations against Russia..
    Nothing sells like a WAR SALE!! Loan Option Available!!!!
     
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  14. Bahamut

    Bahamut Senior Member Senior Member

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    No one needs Baltic countries ,they are spines country with very loud voice
     
  15. Panjab47

    Panjab47 सर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट्टादेवकल्पादृढ़व्रता|੧੫| Banned

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    Look at opposite, this only means they wish to cleanse the Russian minorities in these areas.
     
  16. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Brave to the weak. In Germany Russians and Russian speakers living more than the entire population of the Baltic States. Why not protect them?
     
  17. Panjab47

    Panjab47 सर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट्टादेवकल्पादृढ़व्रता|੧੫| Banned

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    @Akim Idk protection christians not my problem only destruction.
     
  18. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    It's just western fear-mongering. Russians won't take over Baltic countries because it would be a headache to keep them occupied later. It's NATO that has encircled Russia by opening bases in ex-soviet countries. It's funny how it's lefties who seem to be most anti-Russian nowadays. Also, it's lefties who seem to be against Asad regime. If US attacks syria and occupies it then lefties would soon start singing different tune. All of them have conveniently forgotten that they were all for toppling evil Saddam and other middle-east dictators.
     
  19. Panjab47

    Panjab47 सर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट्टादेवकल्पादृढ़व्रता|੧੫| Banned

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    @dhananjay1 abrahamics are known for being mentally insane & holding contradictory viewpoints. Living under totalitarian theocracies does that.
    https://pbs-0.twimg.com/media/CS44Tc2UwAIBe-w.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2016
  20. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Hitler was protecting Germans in neighboring countries. The result is known. Of course, the Baltic States cannot oppose Russian power, but Russia will not invade these countries.
     
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  21. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    The problem is entire world has become infested with non-theistic abrahamic memes. If I list even half of ideologies that I don't subscribe to, almost everyone here would start shouting 'extremist' :biggrin2:
     
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