The crash of a Russian-built commercial jet on May 9th in Indonesia came at a particularly bad time. The Sukhoi Superjet 100 had just kicked off a promotional Asian tour to attract orders and get Russia's aviation industry off the ground again.
The enthusiasm was cut tragically short, when the plane disappeared from radar screens at 2:33 pm on Wednesday. The following day, rescue teams found debris from the aircraft littering the steep slopes of Mount Salak in West Java. This leaves the investigation team with the unenviable task of piecing together exactly what went wrong on the doomed flight.
First, the Superjet 100 is unquestionably state-of-the-art technology. The aircraft, which took its maiden flight back in April 2011, combines the technical expertise of five US and European aviation companies. Russia has spent about $1.5 billion researching and developing the twin-engine aircraft with its Italian partner, Alenia Aeronautica SpA. According to the manufacturer, the aircraft has a range of 4,600 kilometers (2,800 miles) and costs just $35 million, well below the market price for this type of aircraft.
The Jakarta Post interviewed Chappy Hakim, the former head of the Indonesia National Team for the Evaluation of Transportation Safety and Security, on the avionics featured in the Superjet. "The cockpit, which is almost identical to the Airbus's design, is fitted with the latest Fly by Wire technology, a state-of-the-art avionic system and even a 'joy stick' to control the plane's maneuvers," Hakim said. "The aircraft comes with a Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) that alarms pilots about impending obstacles in the air. The Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS), installed since the first design, warns pilots whenever the plane flies dangerously low."
Given such advanced instruments, Hakim found it perplexing that the aircraft crashed the way it did (head-on into the mountain, as opposed to "swiping" it blindsided at an angle). Furthermore, the Superjet was "closely monitored" as part of its "continuous effort to improve the product." In other words, this state-of-the-art aircraft had a round-the-clock team of mechanics to keep the machine ship-shape.
According to the aviation expert, "this plane was in top shape and was flown by a highly competent crew, including Sukhoi's own test pilots."
Aside from the low probability of mechanical problems, investigators have some other disturbing questions to consider: why would highly experienced pilots request to descend to an altitude of 6,000 feet from 10,000 feet in a mountainous region if weather was a factor (there was reportedly some cloud cover, with a light rain)? The normal procedure in such situations is to ascend above the cloud coverage.
Since this was their second demonstration flight, the pilots certainly knew that Mount Salak is a 7,000-foot dormant volcano, one of many in the area. The discovery of the "black box" – that is, assuming it is found – should tell investigators if the crash was due to human error or some sort of catastrophic malfunction. Or it might lead investigators into less pleasant terrain.
Given the extremely sophisticated instrumentation onboard the aircraft, and the professionalism and experience of the crew, it is too early to rule out industrial espionage as a possible cause of the crash. In my opinion, the accident deserves a full criminal investigation of every single person – airline worker or not – who came into contact on May 9th with the aircraft before it crashed. Although it may sound over-the-top, unless researchers find conclusive evidence of human error or technical malfunction, I would even request polygraph tests. But that's me.
Sukhoi has plans to sell about 1,000 Superjets over the next ten years. To date, the ambitious campaign has already attracted about 200 orders from international clients. These numbers represent a respectable chunk of the highly profitable commercial aircraft market. Given the extremely competitive conditions of the global economy, which is still struggling to pull through a grinding recession, aviation companies have no desire to surrender their market share to newcomers. While a competitive market does not automatically point to foul play, it does not automatically rule it out either.
Meanwhile, Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin told reporters that a group of Russian investigators has flown to Jakarta to take part in the inquiry into the crash, and another group will travel there on Saturday. "As part of the criminal inquiry, a part of the group of Russian investigators has already flown out to Jakarta where they are going to attend the investigative procedures carried out by the Indonesian law enforcement authorities," Markin said.
The second group of investigators will fly to Indonesia on May 12, he said, adding that the investigation will focus on Russia as well. "It should be noted that the investigative procedures will take place not only at the air crash scene but also in the Russian Federation," Markin said. "In particular, investigators will question the technical staff who prepared the aircraft for the flight, as well as representatives from the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft company, who were involved in making and preparing the aircraft for operation."
Meanwhile, according to Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa, the Sukhoi crash will not affect economic ties between Russia and Indonesia.
"Economic cooperation between the two countries continues to develop without problems, as usual," said Rajas, who was quoted by Indonesian media on Saturday.
The crash of the Superjet on May 9th was not the only mysterious incident to hit Russia's aviation industry in a rather short period. On September 7, 2011, a Yakolev-42 aircraft crashed on takeoff near the city of Yaroslavl. The aircraft failed to gain altitude, struck a tower mast, and crashed. Forty-five people died. The accident occurred on the same day that Yaroslavl was hosting its third international summit, attended by 400 participants from 36 countries. The official cause of the plane coming down has been declared as "pilot error," although experts are still in disagreement as to exactly what caused the crash.