Russia Is Doomed

asianobserve

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Don't be fooled by Putin's façade; the pillars of Russian power are steadily declining.

By Zachary Keck
March 05, 2014
The Diplomat

Everywhere one looks today, signs of a resurgent Russia are omnipresent. Although Vladimir Putin has undoubtedly worked hard to craft this image, it is a mirage. Russia is doomed over the long-term, and its short-term maneuvers aren't enough to compensate for this fact.

Traditionally, Russian power has rested on four pillars: population, energy, weaponry and geography. Three of these are diminishing.

The backbone of modern Russian power has been its massive population. Nowhere was this better demonstrated than in WWII. Russia no doubt played a leading role in orchestrating Hitler's demise, starting with its legendary stands in Leningrad and Stalingrad. However, Stalin sapped the military might of Nazi Germany less because of the strategic or tactical genius he possessed, and almost entirely through his willingness to expend the lives of his citizenry.

According to some estimates, the Soviet Union lost somewhere between 22 and 28 million people during WWII. To put this in perspective, the United States and Great Britain each lost less than half a million people and even Germany only lost between 7 and 9 million lives during the war. Nonetheless, for nearly half a century after the war the Soviet Union could credibly threaten the much richer West solely because of the sheer number of men it could put under arms.

Yet like most of Europe, Russia has recently seen its population dwindle even as countries like China, India and much of the third world have seen sharp rises in their own populations. As AEI's Nicholas Eberstadt observed in World Affairs: "in the last sixteen years of the Communist era, births exceeded deaths in Russia by 11.4 million; in the first sixteen years of the post-Soviet era, deaths exceeded births by 12.4 million." Unless Russia can reverse this depopulation for a sustained period of time, it will likely become increasingly irrelevant in international politics.

Another source of modern Russian power has been its massive energy reserves. Indeed, high oil prices during the 1970s allowed the Soviet Union to flex its muscles abroad. However, as energy prices stabilized during the 1980s the artifice upon which the Soviet system began to crumble. Far from continuing to expand, the end of the decade saw the Soviet empire disintegrate, with Moscow powerless to stop it.

The so-called resurgence Russia has enjoyed since Putin first assumed power has also been built on high energy prices. And like the Soviet leaders before him, Putin has squandered the temporary respite provided by high energy prices instead of using it to reinvest in the country and its people. As the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development noted gloomily in December 2012, "Not only are Russian exports highly concentrated in natural resources, this concentration has increased over time: the shares of oil, gas and other minerals in Russia's exports are higher today than they were 15 years ago."

It went on to reflect: "In 2012 Russia remains highly dependent on its natural resources. Oil and gas now account for nearly 70 percent of total goods exports"¦. Oil and gas revenues also contribute around half of the federal budget. The non-oil fiscal deficit has averaged more than 11 per cent of GDP since 2009, while the oil price consistent with a balanced budget is now in the region of US$115 per barrel and rising."

The problem with the Russian Federation's economic model, much like that of the Soviet Union's before it, is that it is only sustainable so long as energy prices remain artificially high. But, of course, energy prices are almost certainly going to decline over the coming years as a result of greater energy efficiency in the West, slowing growth in the East, and greater supply as a result of the energy revolutions being enjoyed in the Western Hemisphere and elsewhere around the world. And as goes the price of oil so goes the Russian state.

Also like the Soviet Union, Putin's Russia has managed to maintain a modicum of global influence through the sale of its military weaponry. Although Russian military technology is greatly inferior to the West and the United States, it is sufficient to meet the national security needs of most states around the world. More importantly, Moscow continues to exhibit a willingness to provide it to states that the West refuses to deal with on moral or geostrategic grounds. In these states at least, Russia has been able to maintain a degree of influence.

This source of influence will also diminish in the years ahead. In some places, this will be because of declining defense budgets. In most cases, however, it will merely be because of greater competition from the likes of China and South Korea, the former at least also willing to overlook the moral transgressions of potential buyers.

Thus, over the long-term Russian power will have to come nearly exclusively from its prized geography. To be fair, the value of this real estate is increasing thanks to the increased importance of Asia and the warming of the Arctic. Still, this alone is hardly sufficient to sustain Russia as the major power it once was, and may someday become again.


Russia Is Doomed | The Diplomat
 

Jagdish58

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Don't be fooled by Putin's façade; the pillars of Russian power are steadily declining.

By Zachary Keck
March 05, 2014
The Diplomat

Then why don't you and your NATO allies finsh off Russia by attacking & break it into pieces:lol::thumb:

I guess US & other NATO Rats fear this

TOPOL



and the god of hell R-36 AKA SS-18 SATAN:hail:

 
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p2prada

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So, negative press about Russia has started.
 

nirranj

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The europe except the France, Germany and England and few others is seeing a decline in population. And the England, France and Germany are seeing a growth in immigrants and England is becoming a muslim majority state... The US itself is seeing a high rise of immigrant population and is predicted to fall behind the Chinese in economic might...

Nothing does the west has to rattle the Russia...

The future powers are in the SAARC-ASEAN-China region. The europe, Russia and the west are decaying...
 

prohumanity

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Russia is NOT doomed...Russia is emerging as respected world leader. Zionist financed media( CNN,BBC etc) are badmouthing Russia as zions are afraid of a man like Putin who has capacity to lead an alternate group comprising of Russia, China, India, Brazil, S Africa, Venezuala, Argentina, Iran andmany more. That's almost 75% of World's population. Zions are afraid that their control on global economy, banking and business will be lost and then, just 13 million will not be able to enslave 7 billion. End of hegemony and bullying? A peaceful, Multipolar, democratic World my man !
 
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W.G.Ewald

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Russia is NOT doomed...Russia is emerging as respected world leader. Zionist financed media( CNN,BBC etc) are badmouthing Russia as zions are afraid of a man like Putin who has capacity to lead an alternate group comprising of Russia, China, India, Brazil, S Africa, Venezuala, Argentina, Iran andmany more. That's almost 75% of World's population. Zions are afraid that their control on global economy, banking and business will be lost and then, just 13 million will not be able to enslave 7 billion. End of hegemony and bullying? A peaceful, Multipolar, democratic World my man !
Where does your anti-Semitism come from, Pro?

It already infects too many here, including one moderator.
 

asianobserve

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So, negative press about Russia has started.
I believe Putin has overstepped this time. He has awakened something in the Western coalition that has been dormant for 20+ years. He should watch the next American President for there will be no reset.
 

Kshatriya87

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"Russian military technology is greatly inferior than the west and US"

What a load of crap!
 

asianobserve

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West still depends heavily on Russia for it's oil :


And Russia still depends heavily on West for revenues. But you should read that part of the analysis above citing Russia's dependence on natural resources export for revenues as one of the reason it is doomed. Why? Because gas and oil are bound to go down in prices as America becomes more energy independent.
 

thethinker

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And Russia still depends heavily on West for revenues. But you should read that part of the analysis above citing Russia's dependence on natural resources export for revenues as one of the reason it is doomed. Why? Because gas and oil are bound to go down in prices as America becomes more energy independent.
Doubtful if Russia trade relations will stop in future, energy independence or not. Importing is cheaper then local production.

Shale oil may not be the magic pill for U.S. energy independence | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram

"The path toward U.S. energy independence, made possible by a boom in shale oil, will be much harder than it seems.

Just a few of the roadblocks: Independent producers will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back. Shale output drops faster than production from conventional methods. It will take 2,500 new wells a year just to sustain output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota's Bakken shale, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Iraq could do the same with 60."
 

asianobserve

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Doubtful if Russia trade relations will stop in future, energy independence or not. Importing is cheaper then local production.

Shale oil may not be the magic pill for U.S. energy independence | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram

"The path toward U.S. energy independence, made possible by a boom in shale oil, will be much harder than it seems.

Just a few of the roadblocks: Independent producers will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back. Shale output drops faster than production from conventional methods. It will take 2,500 new wells a year just to sustain output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota's Bakken shale, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Iraq could do the same with 60."

Part of the economic tool being leveraged against Russia is the export of American LNG to Europe, especially Eastern European countries. Gulf and Middles Eastern gas supplies are also romping up supply lines to Europe. These Gulf countries no doubt are too eager to supply more LNG to Europe.
 

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