'Rivers, not Kashmir, Pakistan's aim'

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by anoop_mig25, Aug 9, 2010.

  1. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    i do not where to post it so i am posting it here. Mods can move it to appropriate place
    Although old article but i think this is the real cause for the battle for kashmir
    original article at http://www.strategicforesight.com/sfgnews_114.htm
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    March 31, 2005
    Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir is not driven by territorial ambitions or love for the Kashmiris but rather a desire to control the rivers in Jammu and Kashmir, says a report.

    "Pakistan's primary interest in Kashmir (is) to secure its water resources in order to satisfy Punjab and contain Sindh (and this) is in confrontation with the interests of the people of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC)," says the report.

    The report - "The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations" - was prepared by the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, a Mumbai-based independent think tank.

    "Pakistan is not interested in Kashmir alone; Pakistan wants Kashmir plus those districts of Jammu that form the catchment area of the Chenab (river)", it says. "A water war between Kashmir and Pakistan is inevitable in the future."

    It says physical control over the Chenab valley would provide Pakistan an opportunity to build dams upstream and regulate river flows to Punjab and Sindh.

    It notes that India has identified nine sites on the Chenab to build hydroelectric dams, some of which could be bigger or comparable to the largest dams in Pakistan - Tarbela and Mangla.

    Under the bilateral Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, India can only build run-of-the-river hydroelectric stations. "If Pakistan can get control of the area, it would have no such restrictions," the report says.

    "It would also provide strategic depth for the Mangla dam and the important Pothohar region in Punjab from where more than half of the army personnel are recruited.

    "However, India would lose the strategically vital Akhnoor area in Jammu and also access to Ladakh," it said.

    The report said if India and Pakistan were to take a political decision to restructure their relations, they would have to ensure that water served to bring them together rather than push them towards conflict.

    "Since 1999, every proposal made by Pakistan through Track II diplomacy, either directly or indirectly, refers to water as a core issue," the report said.

    "The statements made by Pakistan's military officials, Kashmiri leaders and newspaper editorials describe Jammu and Kashmir as a supplier of crucial rivers, and project bloodshed there as the sacrifice made by Kashmiri youth to ensure Pakistan's water security."

    It quoted Hizbul Mujahideen leader Salahuddin as having said: "Kashmir is the source from where all of Pakistan's water resources originate. If Pakistan loses its battle against India, it will become a desert."

    As a "bright and ambitious" brigadier undergoing a course at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London , President Pervez Musharraf himself had in a dissertation said the issue of distribution of Indus river waters between India and Pakistan had the "germs of future conflict".
    According to the report, Pakistan 's per capita water availability has declined from 5,600 cubic metres at the time of its independence in 1947 to 1,200 cubic meters in 2005. This is expected to reach the "threshold level" of 1,000 cubic metres before 2010.

    "While all provinces are suffering from water shortages, there is a tendency to force Sindh to bear a disproportionately higher share of burden than Punjab . The army leadership is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh," it said, noting that senior officers, including Musharaf, who is also army chief, have purchased land in Punjab .

    The report said the construction of Mangla dam had led to resentment on both sides of the LoC - in Mirpur area of Pakistan-administered Kashmir as it has submerged large areas in the region and in the Kashmir Valley on the Indian side because the Indus Waters Treaty undermines the potential to develop hydroelectricity and irrigation projects.

    "There is a direct conflict between Pakistan and the people of Jammu and Kashmir . Pakistan wants the Kashmir Valley and parts of Jammu to be able to build dams to divert waters to Punjab 's benefit at the cost of the Kashmiris.

    "On the other hand, Jammu and Kashmir needs to come out of the Indus Waters Treaty to improve its own irrigation, hydroelectricity and employment prospects.

    " Pakistan is not interested in the full accession of Kashmir if it involves giving equal rights to Kashmir along with other provinces. Pakistan 's interest is in having Kashmir as a semi-autonomous state, which cannot demand equal rights with other provinces, but which allows the federal government to exercise political control over its resources," the report said.
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    thats why in back channel talks they always favour chenad formula
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2010
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  3. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Before dreaming for all rivers in Kashmir they should improve their outdated water management systems . Even if they get access to water of all rivers how will they manage them with their such a Phantastic water management system which is being criticized by almost everyone including world bank.
     
  4. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    THEY WOULD IMPROVE THEIR water management systems ONCE THEY GET CONTROL OF KASHMIR
     
  5. Rebelkid

    Rebelkid Regular Member

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    Meh...talk about crocodile tears for Kashmir
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It is very well known that after the initial post partition days and the first war, the pakistanis realized more than being a muslim dominated area that should be part of pakistan it is the water that is more important in kashmir. So the indus water treaty was negotiated that too with international arbitrators. India on its part has kept its end of the deal through thick and thin. But I am sure when if india was put in an untenable position through terror and proxy chinese designs, it can in the future use the waters as a strategic weapon and pakistan is mighty aware of that.

    Kashmiris have long been off the list of pakistanis, its been the waters and the poor Kashmiris are just pawns for pakistan.
     
  7. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is also our problem outdated water mgt systems though state such as Gujarat has done a remarkable feat by boosting agricultural production in a fairly arid state thanks to efficient water mgt.
     
  8. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Rivers may be one of the reason, but this reason is a current reason started due to recent water crunches in Pakistan. When the Kashmir dispute started Water was no where in the picture.
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Indus water treaty was concluded 50 years back. Water came into picture very soon after independence
     
  10. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    People fail to see that water is the main cause of the dispute there is no mulim love in pakjabis mind to have kashmir. It was it is and it will be water. They can't accept India controlling water. It is now that they are accepting the truth.
     
  11. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    As if we DONT KNOW IT. We always knew that Kashmir is Pakistan 's jugular vein.

    The fact is that Indian leaders knew that Pakistan being strong believers in the Martial Races Theory ,would embark on Misadventures . WARS , FIGHTING AND CONQUESTS COME NATURALLY to them

    So it is necessary to be able to strike and really hurt the enemy.That is why we NEED Kashmir
     
  12. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Exactly .. the treaty was concluded on water sharing brokered by World Bank. So why Pak and Separatists bringing Water dispute again.
     
  13. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    :happy_2::happy_2::happy_2::happy_2::happy_2::
    first time in DFI my thread is seeing any debate/discussion going on
    ksi ki nazre ne lege
    =xy:)==cool===
    carry on frnds do n`t stop
    :emot112::emot112:
     
  14. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Bet 20 years down the line irrespective of Kashmir issued solved or not, the Water issue will be another great dispute just like Kashmir. So hope India kills this issue before it gathers momentum.
     
  15. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    indian politicans arn`t good at burying gost. they again allow this gost to appear regular and demonize india , pakistan and world people (not their governments)
     
  16. mayfair

    mayfair Elite Member Elite Member

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    I wonder if someone has told those stone pelting vitriol spouting Kashmiri Muslims about this.
     
  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Coz they don't want india to use water as a weapon. They want in under their control.
     
  18. samarsingh

    samarsingh Regular Member

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    wrt China we are at a disadvantage being a lower riparian country and without a formal treaty, wrt Pakistan the situation is fair because of the Indus Water Treaty. Any proxy support of Pakistan to flame separatism in Kashmir should be seen as an act of war, nothing less.
     
  19. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Any aggressive move by Pakistan wrt water will result in break of Indus water Treaty which is already not in favor of India. Re negotiations of the Treaty with a third party like last time the World Bank will only result in India gaining more, in current scenario.
     
  20. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    There should be no third party involved this time. Think about it. China can make the whole world draw Taiwan as its undisputed part; China can make the whole world accept Tibet as its undisputed part on all of their official maps. How? Why? Because China says "either you recognize Taiwan, or us". Why the hell don't we keep this policy? Either recognize Kashmir and Arunachal as an undisputed part of India or do business with Pakistan and forget trade relations with India.

    We are in a position to lay more assertive claims and therefore this opportunity should not be lost. Kashmir as a whole what is claimed should be the first diplomatic condition set forward to thousands of companies wanting to come to our country for their benefits. Recognize the state of Kashmir as an inseparable and undisputed part of India, or you want to keep it disputed fine go and increase your trade with Pakistan and their low-cost terror institutions.

    If we don't do this now, we will never get a chance again. Forgive me for saying this but India as a country has to think practically, politically, strategically and realistically. Walking on the lines of Mahatma Gandhi ji who was one single great man, cannot work out for our country. A single political saint has nothing to lose as compared to a country ; a nation has a lot to lose such as we've been taken for a ride by all countries around the world who dispute whichever part of India with our neighbours. Today it is Kashmir and Arunachal. Tomorrow it will be Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar, then West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

    We've seen countries going all haa hoo talking about how they love and stand by India. Let us put that to test and see how much worth their words they are.

    Make it a choice; Kashmir and Arunachal as undisputed parts of India, or take your bag of trades to Pakistan if you want to kiss them so much.
     
  21. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Tresh india will be able to do that in 10 years time when we will be a 5 trillion economy plus much stronger militarily.
     

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