Rise of Russia(?)

[santosh10]

Living standards needs to improve in a sustainable manner. Rapid growth typically backfires. Russia has to take the approach of improving productivity of its workforce in a gradual and step by step manner.

hmmm, how do you see Russia helping other countries improve their living standard by writing off their debt? last post#80

 

[santosh10]

deleted........

 

[amoy]

Russia is now a bargain for China. Soon Russia will be practically owned by China and Putin's inflated sense of nationalism thrown into the frozen sewers.

so much hot air around "Russia owned by China", how? by a few investment or selling more oil n gas? or conversely can it be interpreted as China getting more dependent on Russia for energy security?

currently even Malaysia is hard hit by oil price slump, Ringgit sliding by over 20% YTD, whilst 30% of Malaysian govt revenue is oil related！ nonetheless yr economy seems to fare it pretty well. so will our neighbor Ruski weather the storm coming out stronger diversifying its economy and trade mix!

BTW 2 pieces of latest news for yr ref. -

1) Chechen terrorism attacks caused 17 death, a key bldg burning down in crossfire.

2) Russian inflation up with Ruble depreciation, 30% of household income spent on food on average (surprising!)

 

[jouni]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busin...-the-world-s-2nd-weakest-currency/512591.html

The Moscow Times Dec. 04 2014 19:51

The Russian ruble is now the second-weakest currency in the world, having lost 39 percent of its value since January, news agency RBC showed in a report published on Thursday.

Only violence-ridden Ukraine's hryvna has fared worse, suffering a loss of 46 percent since the beginning of the year.

Since January, Russia's Central Bank has spent about $70 billion defending the ruble, which has suffered from Western sanctions over the country's involvement in Ukraine and falling prices for oil and natural gas, which form 68 percent of Russia's exports, according to news agency Bloomberg.

Rounding out the five weakest currencies are the Ghanaian cedi, Argentinian peso and Syrian pound, RBC reported.

 

[asianobserve]

Chechen militants attack Grozny, shattering peace as Putin gives speech - The Washington Post

MOSCOW — In a stunning return to siege-style violence in the Russian region of Chechnya, well-armed Islamist militants seized an empty school and office building Thursday before an hours-long shootout in which at least 20 people died, authorities said.

 

[amoy]

sorry @asianobserve , for my misread. Ringgit is not that weak, down by 4.3% from June. It was crude oil that plunged by over 20%.

Putin has many cards to play, China card for one (China is a willing partner in this game of course), as Asia Pacific consumers in the long run may well make up for the loss of market share on the West side.

And there're other cards , Turkey, South Stream - Putin drops South Stream gas pipeline to EU, courts Turkey | 4-Traders

Russia on Monday scrapped the South Stream pipeline project to supply gas to southern Europe without crossing Ukraine, citing EU objections, and instead named Turkey as its preferred partner for an alternative pipeline, with a promise of hefty discounts.

The EU, at loggerheads with Moscow over Ukraine, and keen to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, had objected to the $40 billion South Stream pipeline, which was to enter the EU via Bulgaria, on competition grounds.

The proposed undersea pipeline to Turkey, with an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic metres (bcm), more than four times Turkey's annual purchases from Russia, would face no such problems. Russia offered to combine it with a gas hub at the EU's southeastern edge, the Turkish-Greek border, to supply southern Europe.

Nevertheless, EU-candidate Turkey's deepening energy ties with Russia are likely to raise eyebrows in Europe and the United States, coming as Western powers have imposed economic sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine, and as Europe tries to lower its energy dependence on Russia, which supplies about 30 percent of its gas needs, half of that via Ukraine.

"As our cooperation develops and deepens, I think we will be ready for further price reductions," Miller told reporters in Ankara. "As we develop our joint projects ... the level of gas price for Turkey could reach the one Germany has today."

The South Stream pipeline had exposed cracks in EU strategy as Hungary, Austria, Serbia and Bulgaria among others saw it as a solution to the risk of a repeat of supply disruptions via Ukraine, while Brussels and Washington saw the project as entrenching Moscow's energy stranglehold on Europe. Yet its appeal has waned as economic growth has stalled, and with Azeri Caspian gas due to land in Italy from 2020.

See? it works, EU is divided.

The trump card - energy - is well played up to now. When the dust is off Russia is bound to tip a better balance btwn the East and West by enlarging its customer base so that it gets less vulnerable to fluctuations of price or demand on either side (less dependent on either). By then Russia can be in even a more comfortable position not to be "owned" by either side.

 

[asianobserve]

sorry @asianobserve , for my misread. Ringgit is not that weak, down by 4.3% from June. It was crude oil that plunged by over 20%.

Putin has many cards to play, China card for one (China is a willing partner in this game of course), as Asia Pacific consumers in the long run may well make up for the loss of market share on the West side.

And there're other cards , Turkey, South Stream - Putin drops South Stream gas pipeline to EU, courts Turkey | 4-Traders





See? it works, EU is divided.

The trump card - energy - is well played up to now. When the dust is off Russia is bound to tip a better balance btwn the East and West by enlarging its customer base so that it gets less vulnerable to fluctuations of price or demand on either side (less dependent on either). By then Russia can be in even a more comfortable position not to be "owned" by either side.

That's okay. Our economic data is on the web and readily available for everyone's viewing. Of course we are affected by oil price slump but nowhere what major oil and gas exporters are suffering from at the moment. Unlike them we have a balanced economy.

 

[asianobserve]

China is really is into Russia right now because it suits it interests (like Russia it too wants to weaken the West, America in particular). But China is also using the West-Russia rift to profit by getting gas deals from Russia at very low prices. So it's clear that China has more leverage on Russia now than ever before. And China's entry into Central Asia is sure to create future conflicts with Russia, I'm sure your strategic planners have this in mind.

Eu might be divided on Russia but it is still able to do something. And just imagine for a moment what the EU can do against Russia if they are not divided...

 

[amoy]

Putin says West using sanctions to undermine Russia, Crimea 'sacred'

But the Russian strongman dismissed Russia's mounting economic troubles as the economy slides into recession under the pressure of Western sanctions and falling oil prices.

"We are ready to take upon any challenge and win."

Employing extremely yemotional language, Putin said that Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in March, had a "sacred" signficance for Russia, comparing it to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

"That is how we will treat this," Putin said.

"From now and forever."

He said Russia would not scale back its ties with the West despite bitter confrontation over the Ukraine crisis which saw Brussels and Washington slap several rounds of sanctions against Moscow this year.

"Under no circumstances are we going to scale back our ties with Europe, America, at the same time we will revive and expand traditional ties with the south of the American continent, will continue cooperation with Africa, with countries in the Middle East," he said.

He added that Russia would not get sucked into a new arms race but insisted that the country's army was ready to deflect any attack.

 

[amoy]

China, Japan in a row. Back 10 years ago Russia was phishing btwn Japan and China
>> Russia prioritizes China over Japan for oil (Kyodo) Updated: 2005-07-10 as then Asia PAC seemed not so much of an imperative.
Now a different approach - Russia and Japan's Pipeline Dilemma | The Diplomat

On Wednesday, the Nikkei reported that Russia is interested in restarting talks to build a natural gas pipeline between its Sakhalin Island and Japan's far northern island of Hokkaido, according to a senior Japanese foreign ministry official. The source said that Russia brought up the plan last month, while also saying "Construction of a pipeline will depend on the Ukraine issue and negotiations over the Northern Territories."

The plan has been dormant since late spring, just after China signed a similar massive pipeline deal with Russia. Despite the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the time, as late as May 23 a group of 33 Japanese lawmakers were lobbying the Abe administration to push the pipeline in talks with Putin in Tokyo scheduled for this fall, which were later cancelled.

Russia already supplies 9.8 percent of Japan's LNG imports. The proposed pipeline would deliver 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, which at full capacity would supply 17 percent of Japan's total natural gas imports. As an additional bonus, using a pipeline does not require the building of expensive regasification plants, and natural gas from Russia would probably still be cheaper, as prices for the prospective Russia-China pipeline are expected to be $10.50 to $11.00 per million British thermal units (BTUs), while Japan's LNG import price was $13.05 BTUs on October 10.

Japan is caught in a similar position to China, in that it has to carefully manage its ties with the U.S. and Western Europe and those with Russia, and energy is becoming an increasing part of that Russian relationship. This is also part of Moscow's attempt to balance its interests and expand its energy influence eastward, as its relationship with Europe becomes increasingly tenuous and with the U.S. looking to target Europe with cheap shale gas exports over the next few years. This potential rebalance in global energy markets will help to drive down the premiums that Northeast Asia currently pays for natural gas, with Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC) researcher Masumi Kimura saying that the Russia-China pipeline "will surely put downward pressure on gas prices and some say it is the beginning of the end of the Asia premium."

While Japan is still careful to caveat cooperation with Russia, contingent upon how the situation in Ukraine unfolds, the crisis does not appear to be an arresting factor in its current form, especially as Tokyo's Western allies become preoccupied with the heightening conflict with IS in Iraq and Syria. Particularly for the U.S., if Ukraine continues to be a second-tier problem, Japan may find enough space to continue negotiations with Russia over the proposed pipeline.

Russia always has leeway so long as it remains a top supplier of energy the lifeline for the modern world. And present price crunch is temporary.

 

[asianobserve]

Putin says West using sanctions to undermine Russia, Crimea 'sacred'

I guess Putin has altogether forgotten that a country named Ukraine still exists...

 

[sgarg]

hmmm, how do you see Russia helping other countries improve their living standard by writing off their debt? last post#80

It is better to write off debts which you cannot collect.
This is the reason why Russia prefers to deal with India as Russia knows India always pays its debts.

Soon all creditors of Pakistan will realize the same as this country is about to implode as well.

 

[sgarg]

I guess Putin has altogether forgotten that a country named Ukraine still exists...

As a Malaysian, Ukraine does not matter to you at all. Your anti-Russia view is funny. Did not stop your country from buying Russian fighters.

 

[santosh10]

It is better to write off debts which you cannot collect.
This is the reason why Russia prefers to deal with India as Russia knows India always pays its debts.

Soon all creditors of Pakistan will realize the same as this country is about to implode as well.

Living standards needs to improve in a sustainable manner. Rapid growth typically backfires. Russia has to take the approach of improving productivity of its workforce in a gradual and step by step manner.

@asianobserve

hmmm it also confirm that these countries need debt relax, more needy, isn't it? just have a look on the amount of debt Russia has written off during last 7-8 years, more than $100bn+

from here, in response to your post# regarding "living standard" of Russians, we have a comparison as below :thumb:

(The Living Standard Comparison, w.r.t. to the Debt on the society as whole, the Total Debt, which includes government+business+household debt etc too.)

//data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

Per Capita Income PPP in 2013- World Bank

United Kingdom: $36,197

Italy: $34,303

Spain: $32,103

Russia: $24,120

Greece: $25,651

Poland: $23,275

(as the second most industrialized East European country after Russia, we find Poland is a good comparison :thumb: .)

//data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

=> Total Debt: and dont forget, in today's world, something that matters the most is as below. how much debt you have to pay back, before you become a rich nation..... and if i dare to say, considering the hefty resources Russia has, Russians have the most bright future in world at present, not surprised why they have thrown out over $100bn+ foreign aids for its poor friends recently

//cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/t1-overall_0.png

and its worth mentioning, as the interest rate payment occurs on the total debt, once inflation rise, and we need only one more 2008 type recession in this regard..... as we do understand that the way these OECD economies have doubled their debt since 2008 recession, they won't be able to borrow this time again
we may see a type of social unrest in OECD economies, on the back of one more recession like 2008-09....


=> and the Per Capita Income Growth Rate: a comparison: Russia was rising along with BRIC speed till the 2008 recession, and Per Capita Income of Russia and US since 2008 is compared as below, even if US is pumping twice oil/gas since 2008 too. and referring the above comparison, Russia isn't a developing country like Indonesia, India, China, Philippines, its well compared with developed country like US as below :ranger:

//blogs-images.forbes.com/markadomanis/files/2013/03/GDPPerCapitaRussiaUS.png

 

[santosh10]

[MOD Edit: Don't quote off topic posts.]


Russia's economic fortunes rise as West sinks

Despair, which is judged on the 'despair index' as inflation + unemployment + poverty, in the West is now higher than in Russia, says Ben Aris. :ranger:

The traditional way of measuring pain in times of crisis is to look at the misery index: inflation + unemployment. But to really capture the pain people are feeling, you need to look at the despair index: inflation + unemployment + poverty.

The shocking fact is that despair in the West is now higher than in Russia.

In October, the US Census Bureau announced that one in seven Americans is living in poverty — the highest number since record-keeping began 53 years ago.

Two weeks later, the UK announced that the number of people out of work has reached its highest level in 17 years, and youth unemployment has hit a historic high at well over 20pc, according to the Office for National Statistics. Spain capped the round of bad news by announcing that unemployment there is 23pc — its highest figure ever and the highest in the EU. Even with the West's low inflation, the misery index is already very high. :coffee:

But unemployment coupled with inflation alone doesn't really tell the whole story. What does it matter if the cost of an iPod rises by 10pc a year if you can't even put food on the table or heat your home?

The despair index allows a direct comparison between the West and emerging markets. The surprise is that central and eastern European states are doing better than the developed economies of the West.

And thanks to record low poverty and unemployment numbers in November, Russia's despair index score of 25.5 is now lower than that of the United States, which has a despair level of 28.1.

Russia's score highlights the transformation the country has been through since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Life for Russians at the start of the Nineties was truly horrible. Russia's misery and despair indices were into the thousands thanks to hyperinflation, but as the decade wore on, the despair index fell steadily from around 90 in 2000 to the current level.

It is easy to blame the rising despair on the current crisis, but the US Census says poverty levels in the US have been rising since well before the current crisis began. Economists say that most American families were worse off in 2000 than they were in 1990.

There are some problems with comparing poverty across countries. With a poverty line of $11,139 (£7,160) per annum, America's poor are a lot better off than most Russians, who earn an average of $9,600. However, the US Census Bureau says half of those living in poverty live in "deep poverty" with incomes half of the official poverty rate, which would make them poor even by Russian standards. :ranger:

The existence of poverty in the "rich" world only underscores the fact that western democracy is flawed and emphasises the increasingly desperate need for deep structural reform. There has been a lot of talk of emerging markets overtaking the West, but for the majority of people, the Brics have already caught up. If you are rich, then you are better off living in America, but if you are poor, then the chances of your life improving are now brighter in Russia. :thumb:

Ben Aris is the editor and publisher of Business New Europe.

Russia's economic fortunes rise as West sinks - Telegraph
.

telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/business/8989603/Russia-economic-fortunes-rise.html

 

[santosh10]

Getting personal eh? Rest assured I have no intention of bringing "Malaysians" versus "Indians." I just feel I have to respond after you brought the "Malaysia" part first. I am all for academic discussion no matter how heated t becomes.

I may help you here.

considering 350million+ Middle Class of India, which is more than total population at the time of freedom in 1947, this number is around 35 times to total Middle Class Number of Malaysia. :ranger:
(Population of Malaysia at 25million and Middle Class Number at 10million, around. as, half of the Malays just eat and work here there, money is owned by Chinese, and by Indians also to an extent, isn't it?" my Chinese girl friends used to say the stories of shiits Malays of Malaysia.... come out of the bluffs that a Muslim country is industrialized by Muslims, the Malaysia .)

and when you read my 2 posts as below, always remember, how China has 100times+ Middle Class than Malaysia, even if its Per Capita Income is less than half to Malaysia :thumb:

for example, you might be proud to live in "Kuala Lumpur" but in my eyes, most of Malaysians may find it tooooooo hard to get a similar size property in Mumbai

globalpropertyguide.com/most-expensive-cities

=> read the posts#25 and #26 and come with some arguments :ranger:

//defenceforumindia.com/forum/economy-infrastructure/64395-brics-e7-economies-ibsa-2.html#post961126

 

[amoy]

Putin heralds concrete reforms to be rolled out -

In his annual address to Federal Assembly, Russia's leader Vladimir Putin proposed several measures of boosting Russia's business activity, non-resourse exports and improvement in investment.

Putin Suggests Total Amnesty for Offshore Capital Returning to Russia / Sputnik International

MOSCOW, December 4 (Sputnik) — During his annual state-of-the-nation address to the Federal Assembly Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested total amnesty for capital returning into Russia.

"I propose to introduce full amnesty for capitals returning to Russia. The full one. Let's do it now, but once," Putin said.

Giving amnesty to money and capital returning to Russia "will give solid legal guarantees" to people with offshore assets.

"I am convinced that we need to completely shut down and turn the page from offshore in the history of our economy and our country." Putin said.

In his annual address to Russia's parliament, Vladimir Putin laid out a plan for the liberalization of the nation's economy, which is struggling as falling oil prices and international sanctions have brought the ruble down by almost half in the past few months.

Russia's leader also announced a four-year freeze in tax hikes and easing of administrative control over the nation's businesses, aiming at providing a catalyst for the development of Russia's entrepreneurship. Putin proposed a significant deregulation of Russia's economy in order to spur growth in the country.

Putin's call for a total amnesty for offshore capital has the prospect of creating a significant influx into investment-starved Russia. Under the proposed amnesty, investors who move capital back in to Russia will be provided with guarantees of safety from criminal or administrative punishment.

Putin's proposal has the potential to solve some of the difficulties Russia's economy is facing making up for the lack of borrowing liquidity. Money repatriation can contribute to a stronger ruble and ease internal pressure on Russia's financial sector.

Putin stressed that, regardless of the political situation, Russia will be "open to the world", by creating an atmosphere and system beneficial for foreign investment and joint ventures with international enterprises. He noted that the government's main objective should be to stimulate private investment and provide people with new opportunities.

"We have a huge internal market and resources, capable intelligent people," he said.

Putin also offered government support to the nation's banking sector by allocating money from Russia's National Welfare Fund. He also promised state support to enterprises involved in non-commodity exports.

Oil and gas make up more than 50% of Russia's budget income and roughly 65% of the nation's exports. The recent decline in oil prices has had a significant negative impact of Russia's financial sector. Coupled with the effects of international sanctions, estimated at $140 bln this year, they have created extremely unfavorable conditions for economic development.

Putin's proposals hopefully will buoy investor's trust in Russia and lay a solid foundation for short-to-medium-term improvement in Russia's economy.

also Putin Calls for Business Inspections to Become Public / Sputnik International

 

[sgarg]

Putin is getting good advice on economy. Russia MUST increase industrial output. It can take domestic loans, overseas loans, whatever, but the objective should be to increase industrial output.

Only one issue that I see is that Russia needs to put capital controls. This will need to happen sooner than later.

 

[jouni]

Putin is getting good advice on economy. Russia MUST increase industrial output. It can take domestic loans, overseas loans, whatever, but the objective should be to increase industrial output.

Only one issue that I see is that Russia needs to put capital controls. This will need to happen sooner than later.

Who is gonna buy the industrial output? Their quality is no match for European or Asian products.

 

[amoy]

In his annual address to the Assembly I recall Putin also mentions the Eurasian Tariff Union that encompasses Kazakh, Belarus, Russia and possibly Armenia plus some Central Asian states who're ready to join. If he's ambitious enough China Mongolia and Korea can even be enrolled into this union for the regional economic synergy in parallel with EU.

Russian news: China Ready to Import Russian Engineering Products, Export Agricultural Goods - Russia Insider

SOCHI (RIA Novosti) - China is ready to export agricultural products and oil and gas equipment to Russia, China's Vice Premier Wang Yang stated Saturday.

"China is willing to export to Russia such competitive products as agricultural goods, oil and gas equipment, and is ready to import Russian engineering products," Wang Yang said during the 18th session of the Russian-Chinese Commission for the Preparation of Regular Meetings of the Heads of Governments.

He noted that trade turnover between Russia and China is increasing every year. Compared to the same period of 2013, it has already grown by 6.7 percent. This trend will help to accomplish the task to increase trade turnover to $100 billion by 2015.