Rise of neo-nazi Golden Dawn in Greece

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
Do not enjoy the schadenfreude.

I am expecting this to happen in India too. Make no mistake. Right wing, neo nazi etc whatever. But India is equally fcuked. And things will get a lot worse in India before it gets really worse in western Europe. Though the recovery in India will be faster, are you prepared for the coming exigency.
And Can you also state the reasons for it Sir. I have been shouting about it from day one, though no one seems to think it is true though there are tell tale signs that we are getting there slowly and steadily:sad:
 

Bangalorean

Ambassador
Joined
Nov 28, 2010
Messages
6,233
Likes
6,853
Country flag
And Can you also state the reasons for it Sir. I have been shouting about it from day one, though no one seems to think it is true though there are tell tale signs that we are getting there slowly and steadily:sad:
Yes, even I want to know why there is an impending sense of doom. What is predicted, for when, and what kind of exigency preparation are we talking about?
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
Yes, even I want to know why there is an impending sense of doom. What is predicted, for when, and what kind of exigency preparation are we talking about?
Ah thats easy. Look at the Reasons for the rise of far right groups in Greece/EU as whole. The reason for the EU crisis. The reason the PIIGS failed. Economically socially. You will find lots of similiarities between that and India today, though India has the same problems in the budding stage. Atleast, they became rich first before throwing themselves into a rotten welfare state:sad:
 

Bangalorean

Ambassador
Joined
Nov 28, 2010
Messages
6,233
Likes
6,853
Country flag
^^ Well, India is not that far down the path of a "welfare state". I take the opposite view. India has such a vast mass of have-nots, that the potential is immense and massive. I don't see anything catastrophic happening anytime soon. Growth may slow, there may be some issues here and there, but we will not collapse or get ourselves destroyed!
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
The reason for the economic doom in EU was the excessive govt spending, which was unsustainable leading to a debt trap. The same policies which were supposed to help the poor is now biting them back in the ass. Anyway. Thats what is the basic reason (root cause) of all problems in the EU. Anyway, when the govt runs out of money it can loot from Peter for paying Paul, it will end up with budget cuts and spending cuts which will throw the poor back to the wolves. Jobs will stagnate. the Businesses will become uncompetitive, unemployment will rise, unrest will come. Its all there . You can apply this for both India and EU

Result?- Rise of Far left and Far Right.
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
^^ Well, India is not that far down the path of a "welfare state". I take the opposite view. India has such a vast mass of have-nots, that the potential is immense and massive. I don't see anything catastrophic happening anytime soon. Growth may slow, there may be some issues here and there, but we will not collapse or get ourselves destroyed!
As I said, we are in the beginning stages only :)

And we even have the illegal immigration problem :p

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/economy-infrastructure/37594-shocking-april-industrial-output-growth-only-0-1-worse-than-expected.html#post513923
 
Last edited:

panduranghari

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2012
Messages
1,786
Likes
1,245
And Can you also state the reasons for it Sir. I have been shouting about it from day one, though no one seems to think it is true though there are tell tale signs that we are getting there slowly and steadily:sad:
India is just another country with eunuchs who run the government every where; state or centre.

Though long term I see a lot of hope for India short term the economy will get worse. Are you ready when the price of petrol is 150 rs per litre? At that price everything you know will be a lot different that what it currently is.

Oil is the engine of the the economy. It lubricates it. Rupee is inflating like there is no tomorrow. And with inflating rupee the oil is gonna get expensive. Also your salary is going to remain same or increase at a rate way lower than the inflation.

Your surplus will go into purchasing oil so that you can do your current job either if you drive to work or if you own a business and you rely completely on logistics which gets you goods. If you are in debt, then god help you.
 

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
The comparison of social welfare spending by the Greeks and the social welfare spending by India is laughable at best. The Greeks used to spend 90% of their revenue on govt. payments, salaries and benefits. Govt. employees could retire at around 50-55 but had a life expectancy of close to 80. And they had debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Not to mention the enormous defense spending that Greece use to do despite dire economic crises to compete with Turkey. Just like what Pakistan does today when competing with India. It currently spends the highest on military as percentage of GDP than all EU countries and on social welfare it actually falls in the middle. Most EU countries spend between 27-39% with Greece spending 25% of GDP. On the tax collection side, it has one of the lowest revenues as a percentage of GDP. Most wealthy people can evade taxes which shows that the trickle down economics don't always work.

Keep in mind that it was a conservative right leaning govt. that ruled Greece between 2001-2009 that did the largest amount of spending, more spending than any socialist govt. infact. This includes indirect "spending" as well through massive tax cuts for the wealthy. The problem is that while Greece was borrowing and spending, its interest rate was being subsidized by Germany thanks to the Euro instead of being forced to borrow at a higher interest rate as its debt-to-GDP ratio kept piling up. There is no such case with India where the RBI will step in to stem govt. spending with higher interest rates if it goes overboard with spending.

And do you know how much India spends on social welfare as a percentage of GDP? A grand total of 1% excluding subsidies for petrol, diesel, fertilizers, electricity e.t.c.. If you add those worthless subsidies that hardly do any REAL good, then we have about 3.5% given that last year we spent 2.5% of GDP on subsidies. For India, the problem is to channel these resources in the right direction to improve, health, education and address basic food scarcity issues rather than inefficient subsidy schemes that are bound to fail. This is OT anyways, but just thought I would explain the Greece vs India welfare state.
Greece spends 25% of GDP while India spends effectively only around 1-1.2% of GDP on social welfare. Countries like Germany and Sweden spend close to 30%. Even the US spends around 15% of GDP on social welfare.
Social welfare basically includes basic food, healthcare and education, sometimes even higher education and R&D.
Welfare state - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Welfare for all: Rs 139 per Indian, per month - Times Of India
 

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
On the immigration issue, as one debater mentioned, that is the least of their worries. The official stats show that there are more Greeks leaving Greece than new immgrants coming in. Even the illegal immigrants who come to Greece actually plan to go ahead to Germany or England, not stay in Greece. In 2011, Germany alone saw a 90% rise in Greek arrivals and similar rates were seen in Italy, France and other parts of the Eurozone.
Ofcourse its easier to blame a "foreigner" rather than blame yourself when you are hit with a crisis and this what the GD party has latched on to.
 

shuvo@y2k10

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
2,653
Likes
6,709
Country flag
as the financial.military and strategic importance of europe will decrease in the next two decades we will see more such movements across europe.these kinds of movements shows the true face of europeans and lifts the veil of human rights and democracy which they have been lecturing the world since ww2 and killing thousands of innocents for the last 10 centuries on the other hand
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
The comparison of social welfare spending by the Greeks and the social welfare spending by India is laughable at best. The Greeks used to spend 90% of their revenue on govt. payments, salaries and benefits. Govt. employees could retire at around 50-55 but had a life expectancy of close to 80. And they had debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Not to mention the enormous defense spending that Greece use to do despite dire economic crises to compete with Turkey. Just like what Pakistan does today when competing with India. It currently spends the highest on military as percentage of GDP than all EU countries and on social welfare it actually falls in the middle. Most EU countries spend between 27-39% with Greece spending 25% of GDP. On the tax collection side, it has one of the lowest revenues as a percentage of GDP. Most wealthy people can evade taxes which shows that the trickle down economics don't always work.

Keep in mind that it was a conservative right leaning govt. that ruled Greece between 2001-2009 that did the largest amount of spending, more spending than any socialist govt. infact. This includes indirect "spending" as well through massive tax cuts for the wealthy. The problem is that while Greece was borrowing and spending, its interest rate was being subsidized by Germany thanks to the Euro instead of being forced to borrow at a higher interest rate as its debt-to-GDP ratio kept piling up. There is no such case with India where the RBI will step in to stem govt. spending with higher interest rates if it goes overboard with spending.

And do you know how much India spends on social welfare as a percentage of GDP? A grand total of 1% excluding subsidies for petrol, diesel, fertilizers, electricity e.t.c.. If you add those worthless subsidies that hardly do any REAL good, then we have about 3.5% given that last year we spent 2.5% of GDP on subsidies. For India, the problem is to channel these resources in the right direction to improve, health, education and address basic food scarcity issues rather than inefficient subsidy schemes that are bound to fail. This is OT anyways, but just thought I would explain the Greece vs India welfare state.
Greece spends 25% of GDP while India spends effectively only around 1-1.2% of GDP on social welfare. Countries like Germany and Sweden spend close to 30%. Even the US spends around 15% of GDP on social welfare.
Social welfare basically includes basic food, healthcare and education, sometimes even higher education and R&D.
Welfare state - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Welfare for all: Rs 139 per Indian, per month - Times Of India

Really? Then what about this statistic Sir, can you please explain this to me:noidea:

Subsidies and other transfers (% of expense) in Greece

Subsidies and other transfers (% of expense) in India

Also, please Look at the Tax revenues as a Proportion of GDP of Both the Countries. You will know why I thought that India is headed the way of EU...

Tax revenue (% of GDP) in India
Tax revenue (% of GDP) in Greece

On the immigration issue, as one debater mentioned, that is the least of their worries. The official stats show that there are more Greeks leaving Greece than new immgrants coming in. Even the illegal immigrants who come to Greece actually plan to go ahead to Germany or England, not stay in Greece. In 2011, Germany alone saw a 90% rise in Greek arrivals and similar rates were seen in Italy, France and other parts of the Eurozone.
Ofcourse its easier to blame a "foreigner" rather than blame yourself when you are hit with a crisis and this what the GD party has latched on to.
The Immigration Problem is not the Problem of the Greece alone. The Entire population of the EU has a hidden grudge against the immigrants, both Legal and Illegal. It is true. And the Economic down turn will make that worse. Which is an important reason for the rise of the Far Right Wing. But even here, India Faces the same Bangladeshi illegal immigration problems, despite facing brain drain from emigration. Another Similiar scenerio, comparable to EU

So as far as I can see, we have a huge potential for the rise of Far Right groups in India :D
 
Last edited:

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
^^^^ Can you give me what figures you are looking at to compare % of GDP spending on welfare?

From the links you quoted, those are figures of % of expenditure not GDP, so it doesn't really compare to the % of GDP that I was quoting in my post. The revenue is however a % of GDP which stands at 20% for Greece and close to 11% for India.

To get an idea of welfare spending, you can probably look at the expenditure as % of GDP figure which is around 50% for Greece and 17% for India. Keep in mind that also the Central govt. debt to GDP ratio is around 126% for Greece and 55% for India.

So there is still a long long way to for India to go the Greece way. And because we have an RBI that will throttle govt. borrowing when it starts increasing like it did in the last 2 years, the danger is less likely. Greece basically hoodwinked the ECB (or some might say the ECB colluded with Greece) to give them essentially free money at low interest rates when their high debt to GDP ratio demanded much less credit and a higher interest rate loan.

As Banglorean mentioned, we till have a long way to go before we even spend like a welfare state. Our real welfare spending is around 1% of GDP and if you add the inefficient subsidies that we provide across the board, even to the rich like the diesel subsidies, then we bump it up to 3.5% of GDP. The proble is our "welfare money" instead of being speant on healthcare, education and the like is frittered away in handout schemes which allow for corruption and are inefficient.
At the same time out tax to GDP ratio has gone down mainly to address the growth slowdown but also because we havn't implemented the DTC and GST that would close a lot of loopholes and tax holidays that we are providing at present. It would get more bussiness activities under the tax net and end tax holidays so that we can bring the overall tax rate down and still have our revenue go up. Fiscal balance has to look at both the revenue and expenditure sides.
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
^^^^ Can you give me what figures you are looking at to compare % of GDP spending on welfare?

From the links you quoted, those are figures of % of expenditure not GDP, so it doesn't really compare to the % of GDP that I was quoting in my post. The revenue is however a % of GDP which stands at 20% for Greece and close to 11% for India.

To get an idea of welfare spending, you can probably look at the expenditure as % of GDP figure which is around 50% for Greece and 17% for India. Keep in mind that also the Central govt. debt to GDP ratio is around 126% for Greece and 55% for India.

So there is still a long long way to for India to go the Greece way. And because we have an RBI that will throttle govt. borrowing when it starts increasing like it did in the last 2 years, the danger is less likely. Greece basically hoodwinked the ECB (or some might say the ECB colluded with Greece) to give them essentially free money at low interest rates when their high debt to GDP ratio demanded much less credit and a higher interest rate loan.

As Banglorean mentioned, we till have a long way to go before we even spend like a welfare state. Our real welfare spending is around 1% of GDP and if you add the inefficient subsidies that we provide across the board, even to the rich like the diesel subsidies, then we bump it up to 3.5% of GDP. The proble is our "welfare money" instead of being speant on healthcare, education and the like is frittered away in handout schemes which allow for corruption and are inefficient.
At the same time out tax to GDP ratio has gone down mainly to address the growth slowdown but also because we havn't implemented the DTC and GST that would close a lot of loopholes and tax holidays that we are providing at present. It would get more bussiness activities under the tax net and end tax holidays so that we can bring the overall tax rate down and still have our revenue go up. Fiscal balance has to look at both the revenue and expenditure sides.
There are several things which dont add up in your comparison actually. Thats why I brought that spendings by the govt.

For instance, you are saying that the welfare is very limited in India and is only 3% of the GDP. Now that does not add to the fact that the central govt and state govt spending on the education alone is a welfare considering that they are given for free. There are several other indirect welfare spending in our country by the govt, in form of educations, PSUs, electricity etc. Dont know if that part was even considered when taking the subsidies % of GDP. Anyway, that said, the welfare as % of GDP figure of USA/EU also includes the spending by their respective govts right?

Another thing is, the Govt spending which I think is the most important matter to be considered while thinking about economics. Govt spending in welfare is as high as or more than Greece as a %, and is largely unsustainable, thanks to the planning by the govt. And this will lead to debt as a % of GDP to increase rise right? And whats worse, once given the subsidies and the spending cant be even cut back, even at times of dire circumstances.

And another problem I noted is the tax collection as a % of GDP. We all know that the govt money and its spending is "very efficient". So now the Tax as a % of GDP is only 9% right? so what will happen when the Tax as a % of GDP rises? We will see more of our money spend inefficiently no? This is what our govt is doing is it not? Trying to raise the Tax as a % of GDP through new tax systems? If this continues, we will have a large amount of govt spending in inefficient way leading to debt after debt. Hence I think we are slowly reaching what EU is facing right now.

But I only have a very basic understanding of this issue, and so correct my mistakes if you will
 

panduranghari

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2012
Messages
1,786
Likes
1,245
^^^^ Can you give me what figures you are looking at to compare % of GDP spending on welfare?

From the links you quoted, those are figures of % of expenditure not GDP, so it doesn't really compare to the % of GDP that I was quoting in my post. The revenue is however a % of GDP which stands at 20% for Greece and close to 11% for India.

To get an idea of welfare spending, you can probably look at the expenditure as % of GDP figure which is around 50% for Greece and 17% for India. Keep in mind that also the Central govt. debt to GDP ratio is around 126% for Greece and 55% for India.

So there is still a long long way to for India to go the Greece way. And because we have an RBI that will throttle govt. borrowing when it starts increasing like it did in the last 2 years, the danger is less likely. Greece basically hoodwinked the ECB (or some might say the ECB colluded with Greece) to give them essentially free money at low interest rates when their high debt to GDP ratio demanded much less credit and a higher interest rate loan.

As Banglorean mentioned, we till have a long way to go before we even spend like a welfare state. Our real welfare spending is around 1% of GDP and if you add the inefficient subsidies that we provide across the board, even to the rich like the diesel subsidies, then we bump it up to 3.5% of GDP. The proble is our "welfare money" instead of being speant on healthcare, education and the like is frittered away in handout schemes which allow for corruption and are inefficient.
At the same time out tax to GDP ratio has gone down mainly to address the growth slowdown but also because we havn't implemented the DTC and GST that would close a lot of loopholes and tax holidays that we are providing at present. It would get more bussiness activities under the tax net and end tax holidays so that we can bring the overall tax rate down and still have our revenue go up. Fiscal balance has to look at both the revenue and expenditure sides.
Well if you include the subsidies, the hidden welfare spending in India goes well beyond the 40% threshold.

The more government tries to tax, the more the business go underground.

The handouts from the government are nothing more than to keep the sheeple happy and under control of the local mafia also known as politician.
 

panduranghari

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2012
Messages
1,786
Likes
1,245
But I only have a very basic understanding of this issue, and so correct my mistakes if you will
Hey doc, you are closer to understanding the economic 101 than many economists who have studied in their respective schools. You truly are a quick learner.
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
Hey doc, you are closer to understanding the economic 101 than many economists who have studied in their respective schools. You truly are a quick learner.
Thanks Doctorji .

I got my first approval in DFI :yey:
 

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
@panduranghari and Mad Indian

A point is being made that India will become like Europe because, GoI is taxing a lot and spending mostly on welfare.

The point I am making is that India is nowhere close to a Greece like situation for the following reasons

(1)Indian welfare spending as a percentage of GDP is very low. Welfare spenging even if the subsidies like fertilisers e.t.c. are included is very low. Major welfare spending is usually on food, education and health. I have listed the data and atleast for the last few years they have been around 3-4% of GDP INCLUDES subsidies. If you take out the subsidies part which are quite inefficient and focus on only education, health e.t.c. spending, then it is close to 1-1.5% of GDP. If you compare this with European countries, these are in the 30-40% range. Even in the US its around 14-15% of GDP.

We are comparing central govt. here for both countries. We are NOT comparing state and provincial debt and spending for Greece. And we are not comparing state owned companies in Greece with the PSUs in India. So lets keep the like for like comparison. But just FYI, the govt. budget does include any cash subsidy paid to PSUs. These items are available in the union budget.

(2) India has room to improve its revenue collection by implementing DTC and GST and increase its tax-to-GDP ratio. GoI has been actually cutting taxes consistenlty rather than raising them. In the past couple of years, GoI HAS been offering major tax cuts as part of the GFC stimulus package. For FY11 this was around 30-35 Billion USD(Revenue Foregone Due to Tax Exemptions Double: CAG | Anirudh Sethi Report).
And this is also once of the reasons why the tax-to-GDP ratio has gone down with the deficit going up. At some point in time, preferably when we have a growth uptick, this has to be rationalised. These include things like IPL's five year tax holiday. Or how the zero taxes on Software exports was ended recently which they enjoyed since 1991 when MMS passed his budget now that software companies have become established.
While India's tax to GDP ratio is around 10-11% now, Greece has a tax to GDP ratio of around 20%. So while Greece has little room to raise taxes further. India can do a lot more to increase its tax base. We don't even have to increase our rates. Just widen the net, end tax holidays selectively on profitable industries and provide tax cuts and incentives to innovative and tech centres like renewable energies. The same idea with applied with software exports.

And just last month, another set of tax cuts were provided to boost exports as part of the Trade policy. (Government unveils changes to Foreign Trade policy, new export sops | Real Time News, India).

That is why I choose the words, improve revenue collection rather than just raise taxes.

(3) India's debt-to-GDP ratio is much lower than Greece. This is a no brainer and if you have been following the debt-to-GDP ratio, you will notice that it has come down from the high of 80% in 2002-2003 to around 55% now. For Greece we are talking around 126% of GDP and increasing.
If Greece had its own currency and central bank, it could atleat devalue its currency and become more competitive and increase exports. And its very likely that Greece would not have gotten in this situation in the first place because its credit rating would have meant that it would have to pay increasingly higher interest costs and deter it from getting bigger and bigger euro loans based on the credit rating of Germany.

In India's case, our currency can be independantly devalued and we have a central bank in the RBI.
Not to mention that Greece has had 4 consecutive years of negative growth, India has been the second fastest growing major economy after China for about the same period even briefly beating China in 2010 with a 10.4% vs 10.3% (India outpaces China: Winning the growth World Cup | The Economist).
 

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
sir did I not say that if the present policy systems are continued unabated other Will lead to EU like scenario? As I said, we are nowhere there yet but we are getting there.

Regarding the 2002 debt, that debt is not bad debt as it was backed by investment in the tangible assets like investment in infrastructure. Tell me what s the debt for MNrega backed by.

Besides, the central spending if continued without adequate revenue generation Will lead to debt won't it?

And if you claim that the subsidy/welfare is only 5% of the GDP then why does that graph show otherwise?

Indian growth story was because of the low base from which we began. That aside why do you think our growth rate is faltering now-no its not because of global slowdown
 
Last edited:

Mad Indian

Proud Bigot
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Messages
12,835
Likes
7,762
Country flag
if you ask me the tax money is better off in the hands of the businessmen who can invest better than the inefficient govt.
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top