Rajasthan State Assembly Elections Dec 2013

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by parijataka, Oct 10, 2013.

  1. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Retaining Rajasthan a do-or-die battle for Congress

    JAIPUR: The Congress has to retain Rajasthan and Delhi, which will ultimately shatter the prime ministerial dreams of Narendra Modi. This is the thinking of top Congress leaders who are burning midnight oil to win at least the above two states in the forthcoming assembly polls to be held in five states, seen as a semi-final to the general elections next year. Once the two states are won, the Cong think tank feels that it will deflate the hype created around BJP's prime minister candidate Narendra Modi and checkmate his ambitions as helmsman at the Centre.

    "From Ahmedabad to Delhi, one (read Modi) has to go via Rajasthan only. And, we are leaving no stone unturned to see that Congress retains Rajasthan and Delhi for which party head honchos are personally involved. The high command has left the other three states for local leaders to take most of the calls," said a senior Congress leader, on assurance of anonymity. The leader preferred not to be named as party strategists are playing their cards close to their chest. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram are the other poll-bound states.

    In case of Rajasthan, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi are personally monitoring the poll preparations as core members of their teams have been frequenting Jaipur at regular intervals. Party general secretary in-charge of Rajasthan Gurudas Kamat, who replaced Mukul Wasnik a few months ago, has developed one-to-one rapport with leaders belonging to various factions. Party insiders say that soon after taking over, Kamat briefed Rahul Gandhi about the state of affairs including the sentiments of senior leaders and workers after which a paradigm shift took place in poll planning.

    "Pre-poll surveys conducted by the party indicated that internal strife could prove to be the biggest bane for the party. Kamat has firmly worked on cementing ties among the rival factions. His efforts have paid dividends, as all senior leaders are working coherently," said a Congress leader. Ashok Gehlot government policies have won laurels and those will be the main poll plank for the party. However, the widened gap among the Congress workers and those holding positions in the government was seen as a major stumbling block, which, the central leadership took up forehand.

    Changes are visible in Congress poll strategy. Once known as Gehlot's nemesis, national general secretary and Bhilwara MP CP Joshi is integral part of the party think tank. The screening committee for selection of candidates consists of Gehlot, Kamat, Ajay Maken, PCC chief Chandrabhan and Rajya Sabha MP from Odisha, Ram Chanda Khuntia. However, Joshi has attended most of the screening committee meetings in the recent past. The two leaders have buried the hatchet, apparently at the behest of the high command, in larger interest of the party.

    Party insiders say that Sonia and Rahul have insisted that the list of candidates will be finalized only by them to ensure no space for partisan politics. "There were apprehensions that local leaders will bat for their loyalists, which could have affected the party adversely. The high command is proactive and persisting with its interest in Rajasthan affairs only to keep flocks together," said a senior leader.

    Among all five poll-bound states, Congress brass has given maximum time to Rajasthan (obviously other than Delhi). Senior leaders including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul visited the state on several occasions. Besides, the Centre played pivotal role in sanctioning populist projects like refinery at Barmer, for which Sonia Gandhi laid the foundation stone even when requisite sanctions like environment clearance was still awaited.

    Congress has pinned high hopes in Rajasthan thanks to a few populist policies like free medicine and pension scheme. Moreover, party foresees strong possibility of dissidence in the BJP after candidates will be finalized. Party sources say that several ticket seekers in the BJP spent enormous amount of money and denied tickets, they will dampen party prospects. Congress leaders also expect rich returns from the alleged veiled camaraderie between Gehlot and Meena community leader, Kirorilal, who is moving places, almost everyday in a chopper.
     
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  3. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I donot know why they are calling election to this 5 assembly as semi final

    Whenever they have called it as semi final congress had won incoming lok sabha elections

    It happened in 1999 and 2004
     
  4. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Actually the chances of NAMO have been scuttlled by Advani & gang who decided to support FSI & Land bill.
     
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  5. sasi

    sasi Senior Member Senior Member

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    Survey doesn't show any good for Bjp in delhi and rajasthan.
    Local leaders doing good but national leaders are not doing enough.
    If Bjp loose these 2, it is because of dumb national leaders.
    Why they aren't on ground? Busy- day dreaming or going to sit on opposition this time also?
     
  6. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    but some people in dfi are say that bjp improved significantly in rajasthan and congress popularistic schemes are not doing well
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    All schemes takes time to fructify.

    New scheme have teething trouble on top of that.

    Congress should have read the tea leaves earlier so that by the time the elections came, they would be firmly in the saddle.
     
  8. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Thread title has been changed. Please use this thread for discussions on the 'Rajasthan Legislative Assembly Elections - Dec 2013'.
     
  9. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    In the last one year, Gehlot Govt. has turned into a Socialist Santaclause. Lots of freebies for the people on fringe. But the business class stays disillusioned.
    It would be interesting to see which side the electoral swings. Both, Gehlot and Vasundhara are poles apart in their policies.

    I must mention one thing here. The post Muzzafarnagar polarization of Jats could become a new factor in Rajasthan this time.
    Jats are a formidable voting entity here. What needs to seen is how much the Rajasthani Jats feel affected and linked with what happened with Mewati Jats. This could fiss out if there are multiple Jat candidates at the same seats. It happened on few seats last time.
     
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  10. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    1. Meena vs Gujjar. Meena looks like will go against BJP and Gujjars for BJP ?
    2. Jaat votes ? Will Meerut have an impact ? What about Naagar's absence ?
    3. Muslims and Dalit are definitely going to vote against BJP .
     
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  11. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Sachin Pilot is a Gujjar.

    Won't he draw the Gujjars away to the Congress?

    I wonder if the Minsters in the sex cases including murder will have any effect in feudal Rajasthan!

    I love the way they use sprrinkle their sentences with "Hukum"s!
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2013
  12. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Doesn't look like it.
     
  13. Simple_Guy

    Simple_Guy Regular Member

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    Jat vote critical in Rajasthan

     
  14. Simple_Guy

    Simple_Guy Regular Member

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    Royal families and Rajput vote

     
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  15. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Not much of a surprise.
    In Rajasthan there is a long standing perception that the Savarna (upper) castes have generally voted for BJP.
    Though I'd say that it is only a marginal tilt compared to Congress. Anyway, problems are with their electoral influences:
    a) they're not the highest in population numbers
    b) they don't vote with a good percentage
    c) they don't vote enmasse in one direction, even within a family the members could be voting disparately.

    If Rajputs are seen as bagging good tickets, Jats are bound to feel envy. But normally such a thing doesn't happen. Moreover Jats are tough negotiators and don;t relent.
    This time I'm hoping that all castes, specially Jats would rise above petty caste rivalries and look at the bigger picture before polling.

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
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  16. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Sir, Sachin Pilot is not a heavy figure in Rajasthan politics. His father was though, even against Sonia G.
    The son would at best influence in and around his own constituency (Ajmer).
    Gurjars have big issues with Jats and they got flamed up further, after the Jats bagged reservations one after the other.
    Apart from distributing goodies here like a Santa Claus lately, Congress led GoI has been dropping bytes on its intent for central reservation for Jats. But the moves have been too slow for Jats patience and it is also a seven year old demand of Gurjars. So Congress is in a bind because of Rajasthan election preceeding central ones by just a few months. The moment they seem to be giving the pie to one side, the other is sure to spell doom for them in Rajasthan. Game over.
    As a consequence, Gurjars are looking to renew their demand of ST status from BJP and some deal might take place. Currently Gurjars have OBC status in Rajasthan.
    Jat-Gurjar rivalry is merely one of the complications marring the Rajasthan analysis.

    Jats' ambitions are young, they quickly get disillusioned if a party doesn't seem to be toeing their line.
    They have their own reasons to ditch Congress this time - BhanwariDevi case, Muzzafarnagar etc. But it is too soon to conclude.
    We'll have to see whether Jats and Gurjars vote in opposite direction at a community level. As in, choosing separate parties and individuals at every seat where they share electoral influence. That would make it a big mess.

    Jats, Gurjars and Rajputs all three have divided leadership.
    Jats assemblies have had some very ugly scenes in the past because of this divide. At some places, as many as four Jat candidates have fought on same seat.
    Gurjars are bifurcated in Bainsla and non-Bainsla groups in their campaigns.
    Rajputs are divided in Bhati-Kalvi ('Samajik Nyaya Manch' fame) group on one side and the others that include Pratap foundation, conventional and party leaders etc.
     
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  17. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Jats got problem with Gurjars and Rajputs
    Gurjars got problem with Jats and Meenas.
    Hindu-Muslim divide as usual.
    My My .. what a scene.

    You're right about Meenas. They've benefited a lot in politics and bureaucracy here. They want status quo and hence would roll with Congress.
    Gurjars also might go to BJP. Rajputs would go to BJP
    Most Interesting and mysterious is the Jats swing. That is what I'm watching for :)
     
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  18. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Feudal Raj is today Mewar and far north, far south only ... rest is no longer feudal.

    That is a Rajput way of saying 'Ji' or 'Yes Sir/Madam'.
    We use it even while talking to parents and elders.
     
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  19. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Father is not called Pitaaji or daddy or Papa. he is addressed with respect as,"Daataa"
     
  20. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I found it most amusing when Maj Gen Zorawar Singh used to call Major Bhawani Singh of Jaipur - Hukum!

    When as per military protocol, it should have been the other way around!
     
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  21. Simple_Guy

    Simple_Guy Regular Member

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    @Virendra Rajasthan has some uniqueness that there has never been a regional or caste-based party. It has always been a battleground between the Congress and anti-Congress formations. Today BJP but before that it was Swatantra Party. Just browsing through Google Books found yet another party that led the battle against Congress in the first two state assembly elections in the 1950s:

    RAM RAJYA PARISHAD​


    I had never even heard of this party but it seems to have given the Indian National Congress a big scare in 1952! The Ram Rajya Parishad was formed by Swami Karpatri and Thakur Madan Singh Danta. The Thakur served as Captain in the Sawai Man Guards, and later served in the Rajendra Hazari Guards, and his estate of Danta was in Shekhawati region of Jaipur princely state.

    The Swami and the Thakur were alarmed at the Nehru government's proposed Hindu code bill, and formed the Ram Rajya Parishad to protect Hindu traditions from "secular assault". The party got a major boost when Maharaja Hanwant Singh of Jodhpur joined it. Mostly the rulers of princely states had an inborn loathing for politics and a natural instinct for serving in the army. But Hanwant Singh was then only 24 and peeved at the promises to Jodhpur state broken by Congress.

    Nehru had threatened to withdraw the Privy Purse if any member of Royalty stood for election, but Hanwant Singh said, "I have no use for privy purse." At a public meeting in Jodhpur he roared: "I have you, my people. Raise your hands, my privy purse!" It was predicted that Congress, which ruled India and also ran the interim government of Rajasthan, would easily sweep the state elections. Local bodies like the Marwar Kisan Sabha merged with the Congress on the eve of the elections. Hanwant Singh was undeterred and gave a new life and focus to the Ram Rajya Parishad which had the following in its manifesto:

    Right to bear arms
    Right to own property
    Formation of Akhand Bharat
    Protection of Hindu shastra laws
    Protection of cows
    Compensation for land taken away by government

    Jai Narain Vyas, interim CM of Rajasthan, patronizingly told the Maharaja: "Durbar Bapji, I beg you. Do not stand for elections. Do not humiliate yourself." Maharaja Hanwant Singh was unperturbed. "Guruji", he laughed, "if I were to put a stone up against you, the stone would win." Vyas decided to contest from Jodhpur against Hanwant Singh to teach him a lesson.

    In the 1952 elections the Ram Rajya Parishad swept the entire Marwar region, winning 34 out of the 35 seats, and defeating Jai Narayan Vyas in Jodhpur by a 60% margin. But just before the results were announced the Maharaja died in a mysterious crash of his private plane. Sabotage was suspected by the Jodhpur people who rioted and came for the Congressman Vyas, who was ironically given shelter by the Maharaja's family and driven to Jaipur in the curtained Zenana Cadillac. Vyas, humiliated beyond measure, announced his retirement from politics but a few months later contested a by-election and was elected the Chief Minister of Rajasthan.

    Maharaja Hanwant Singh bio

    A four year old party had trounced a more than century old pan-India party. Had Maharaja Hanuwant Singh lived, he would have taken the Ram Rajya Parishad to victory in the other parts of Rajasthan, and could have even posed a challenge to the Nehru Congress at the center. But because of Hanwant Singh's death this became a mere dream and the Ram Rajya Parishad dwindled down over the years and finally the anti-Congress forces rallied around the Swatantra Party, this time under the leadership of the Royal Family of Jaipur.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-W5IfxiUbd...AAGk/8UQ9deETllc/s400/Rajasthan_elections.jpg
     
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