Prediction for BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Pratap, Mar 27, 2014.

  1. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    Here is my prediction for BJP for coming LS elections. I have studied past trends and current situation and hence have put in lot of efforts to arrive at my conclusions. Below are seats I think BJP would get in each state with total number of seats in brackets

    Kerala 1 ( 20)

    Tamil Nadu 2 ( 39)

    Seemandhra and Telangana 4 ( 42)

    Karnataka 13( 28)

    Maharashtra 18 ( 48)

    Goa 2 ( 2)

    Gujarat 24 ( 26)

    Rajasthan 22 ( 25)

    Haryana 3 ( 10)

    Punjab 3 ( 13)

    J and K 1 ( 6)

    Uttarakhand 3 ( 5)

    Himachal 2 ( 4)

    Delhi 3 ( 7)

    Chhattisgarh 10 ( 11)

    Jharkhand 7 ( 14)

    WBengal 1 Darjeeling perhaps and may be Bappi Lahiri's seat ( 42)

    Arunachal Pradesh 2 ( 2)

    Orissa 1 ( 21)

    Assam 5 ( 14)


    Madhya Pradesh 25( 29)


    These states alone if adding the seats are going to send 152 MPs of BJP to centre. The heartland of India is still left out and after talking with guys on this forum and reading newspapers, I think that my projections which are listed below will not be too offmark

    Uttar Pradesh 35 ( 80)

    Bihar 22( 40) In bihar I expect LJP to win 3 seats apart from BJP's tally of 22


    Adding all these we get a figure of 207 seats exactly one more seat than Congress in 2009 and this is certainly going to be best performance of BJP till now.



    Would like feedback from our friends and I am sure that the margin for error is not even 10 percent so I can say that my projection is 200-215. Thank you.
     
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  3. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Guess work or opinion poll above.
     
  4. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    Guess work
     
  5. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    I will bump up the tally above:

    Karnataka +3
    Uttarakhand +2
    Assam +3
    UP +5

    Similarly I would reduce some seats from Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chattisgarh. BJP will be bit far from clean sweep.

    But roughly speaking 210-215 is most likely scenario.
     
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  6. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    In Karnataka and Assam, i gave conservative figures so may be you are right.

    Believe me, if Congress could get 21 seats in Rajasthan with just 96 MLAs , we will certainly see same happening for BJP this time. Congress is dead in Gujarat and it is immensely difficult for any man to ask for votes in LS election against Modi. Chhattisgarh also gave 10 MPs both in 2004 and 2009 and I do not see any chance of that getting reduced.

    Thanks for the response and yes we agree that 210 -215 is most likely.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
  7. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    UP was also conservative. It is a three cornered fight so expect BJP to shave off some victories by low margins(<5k) which will bump up their number.
     
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  8. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    And it can be otherwise too hence I think that numbers for UP are correct. I have not denied possibility of more than 40 seats only saying that my figures seem to be most probable. We know for sure that SantKabirnagar and Kairana are going in BJP tally but can not same about Mathura or Baghpat as fight there is tough.( just examples)
     
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  9. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Baghpat is not going to BJP. They should have got a better candidate.
     
  10. Sea Eagle

    Sea Eagle Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think BJP will get just one seat ( Hamirpur seat) in Himachal And the Congress will win the rest three :D
     
  11. sasi

    sasi Senior Member Senior Member

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    here and there,some seats come and go. 200 plus sure!
     
  12. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    I think BJP will get more seats from Karnataka and Haryana than given by the OP and also, a bit more in the TN.

    Also, Assam wont see as much seats as you have predicted as it seems the BJP is going solo there

    and I think UP will see atleast 50 MPs from BJP.

    I think BJP will win 220-230 MPs on its own..
     
  13. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    Sompal Shastri would have been a better choice as he is popular among old jats and defeated Ajit ( only man to do so). Do not be fooled by his surname as he is a Jat.
     
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  14. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    I do not think BJP will get more than 2 seats in TN . Assam gave 4 MPs to Advani led BJP so no reason why it won't give more than 5 seats.
     
  15. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Illegal Bangladeshis+ vote split between AGP and BJP will make sure Congis get 11+MPs in Assam.

    TN elections might surprise you. for the first time, BJP+ has emerged as an alternate to DMK and ADMK and might actually end up taking the second highest tally ;)

    Truths, Half Truths, Untruths of the Media: Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results
     
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  16. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    I have read about it but considering that fair skinned Iyengar from south karnataka going all strong, it seems unlikely that BJP would get more than 2-3 seats and if it happens, it will be biggest surprise for my life so far as election results are concerned.


    You are mistaken about Assam. AGP has no supporters now and all Hindus would vote for NaMo as he raises confidence of getting rid of bdeshis.
    The reason why Congress got so much seats in Assam vidhansabha was because the hindus thought that voting BJP AGP may split their vote and benefit Chaudhary Ajmal who has a party catering to illegal immigrants. BJP did not do anything during Vajpayee and so the distrust. This is not the case with Modi and belive me Assam will give atleast 5 -7 seats.

    BTW, apart from Kanyakumari and Coimbatore, which seats have chances of being captured by BJP?
     
  17. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Nilgiris and Vellore - BJP,

    Dharmapurai, Krishnagiri- PMK

    Dindugal- DMDK, DMDK and PMK are part of NDA

    Also, some party heavy weights like MDMK chief, contesting from Virudhunagar might also win from NDA alliance, though its very unlikely. Also, the MP contestant of MDMK from my constituency Dr. Sathan thirumalaikumar is a person of great integrity and is not matched up by either DMK or ADMK candidates and hence might pull a surprise. But, all in all, NDA alliance is stronger than DMK.

    but of course, there is no stopping AMMA in TN - she will win 30+ MPs on her own with no support :D
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2014
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  18. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    I have a hard time believing it. lets see..
     
  19. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    If Amma will win 30+ on her own, then BJP can not get more than 2 ( I am not talking about entire alliance only the party)
     
  20. Pratap

    Pratap Tihar Jail Banned

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    Well that is always the best option.
     
  21. gokussj9

    gokussj9 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Did anyone check out the latest IBTL opinon poll? They are giving NDA ~245.
     

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