Possible way to tackle Pakistan permanently.

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by jassi, Jul 31, 2010.

  1. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    Hello friends... I have one question.... As it will not be good for India to be having a direct war with Pakistani due to India's growing economy, why don't India use same tactics like USA used against USSR in cold war era? I mean increasing Pakistan's Spending on defense beyond the affordable limit of its economy which will ultimately either break Pakistan in size/nation or economically for creating any possible problem in future . On the other hand, Indian economy can easily afford and allow ( which is already happening) to spend more on weapons/defense. Or this is already happening?
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    To my Pakistani friends, I am opening this thread just for discussion. As both nation don't like each other, so many things will happen and already happening. This could be just one of them.

    Note: Neither I am from defense background nor political. So pardon me if you found this thread useless. I have just expressed my views.
     
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  3. Terminator

    Terminator Regular Member

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    This will not work out as both USA and China would be financing pakistan to counter India.
     
  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    This is true but at the same time USA is trying to fuel a Pashtun-Punjabi division.
     
  5. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    Yeah, also USA cant support Pakistan for long time as USA's own economy is in bad position and will further go down with time. For china, it too wont be suitable for them to support Pakistan openly for long time as India will rise more and more. Moreover in future we can work on the issue if China's support to Pakistan and can find solution. Even at present also China's cheap import is killing Pakistan's own industry.
     
  6. Terminator

    Terminator Regular Member

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    Lethal maybe but personnally i found it as a gimmick to show India .Unstable pakistan would hurt them more currently.
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The closer Pakistan get to China the less money will come from USA. Eventually Pakistan will have to choose one over the other and it will be an ugly day.
     
  8. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    Actually, this is what India is doing now I feel. And about USA Funding, well they are not funding to the extent that Pakistanis would like. They are just paying for using Pakistan and not fully paying for the upkeep of the Pakistani Army, like they do to Israel I feel.

    About China, well again there is a limit as to what China and USA will do for Pakistan. India doesnt need anyones propping up and we should go like we are going now. Direct War is never a good option and a Cold War is the Best approach! Whoever blinks first, will loose and in this case, It will be Pakistan in all honesty! God Speed
     
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    USA is pursuing it's interests in Afghanistan. If the war continues to go badly USA will have to find someone to blame. This has already started with Obama getting rid of a General if this continues Pakistan will be blamed next, with the surge coming up this is a lot of men,money and equipment that USA is investing to meet it's goals if they are not met, US will definetly destabilize the region before pulling out.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2010
  10. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    WOT for USA is getting costly and more costly. Staying in Afghanistan till 2015 will exhaust them both morally and economically. And we are forgetting one thing, India is Big market. So Both USA and China cant ignore India's concern for long time... Everyone needs market to sell and earn. Our middle class is getting big and big each year. Also i dont think future president of USA will follow policies of obama. More and more people in USA are opposing him. I wonder what will be long term effect of WikiLeaks on US policies. One clear example of India's rise can be seen as David Cameron's remarks about Pakistan.
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    let's not get happy by random statements by leaders we need them to show results, the current economic crisis has made China stronger and it has weakened the West the foreign companies are squeezed out of Chinese consumer market, so the only choice left is a change in policies by western nations to a huge friendly and open consumer market and India is the top location.At this point many nations need India more than the reverse. Obama may have to adopt this pseudo Chinese appeasement policy until USA works itself thru the current economic crisis.
     
  12. Terminator

    Terminator Regular Member

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    @ Lethal:agreed



    Cameron is just trying to woo India in order to get some jobs in uk,sadly things didnt go well as he thought.His play didnt interest us more over issues regarding imigration spoiled the whole thing.
     
  13. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Yes, it is already happening. Let's run through some statistics.

    Indian GDP - $1.24 trillon (2008 estimate). $1.44 trillion (2010 assuming 7% growth rate from 2008 to 2010)
    Pakistani GDP - $178 billion (2008 estimate) $190 billion (2010 assuming 2% growth rate from 2008 to 2010)

    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=India+pakistan+gdp

    So Indian economy is 7.5 times bigger than Pakistani GDP.

    Assuming that India spends 3% of GDP on Military which comes to ~$44 billion per year and that 50% goes to face Pakistan and 50% to others (China, BD etc). So, India spends every year around $22 billion to face Pakistan. If Pakistan has to spend same amount on military to face India - it has to spend 9% of GDP on military. Any country spending 9% of GDP on military will not able to spend well on education, infrastructure, internal security etc. This in turn leads to decrease in growth, anarchy in the country and increased number of jihadis threatening the existence of the country.

    Assuming that India grows at a conservative growth rate of 7% - its GDP will reach $3.2 trillion by 2020. If Pakistan grows at 2% growth rate (given its dismal condition of security) for next 10 years - its GDP will reach $220 billion by 2010. So, in 10 years the economy of India will be almost 15 times of that Pakistan. If India still spends 3%% of GDP on defence and 50% of it on fighting Pakistan - it will be around $50 billion. To match this number, Pakistan has to spend 22% of its GDP on defence. This will spell doom for Pakistan. This is called 'war of attrition'. Pakistan will lose even without firing a shot. All India needs to do is to firm up its internal security to ward away the strikes by jihadis and keep the engine of economy growing unhindered.

    After 2020 (assuming 7% growth rate), India's growth rate (in $ billions) will be equal to that of whole Pakistan's GDP. If India grows by 10%, we will achieve the above stage by 2016-17. So, Pakistanis beware of Indian might.

    PS: All figures are approximate and few billions here and there.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2010
  14. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    You yourselves said west need India more than India need them.. That means Britain's policy has changed in reality. About recovery in USA, its more than economics crisis. Gap in the field of technology between USA and India/China is decreasing rapidly. Same is in the case of economy. People in USA are getting lazy to study... their innovations are driven by foreigners, mainly Indians and Chinese which are coming back home these days. About China getting stronger, i agree with you, but same is in the case of India.
     
  15. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Focus the discussion on how India can deal with Pakistan. Don't go on tangential discussion.
     
  16. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    One more thing, Indian rupee will also get stronger in comparison to $ as economy will grow, So even 3% of GDP on defense will mean much more than our today's estimate.
     
  17. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Since we are focusing on the economic angle as a possible solution there maybe a remote possiblity in the future that Pakistan seeks better relations with India as it would also benefit their economy??? It may seem remote with maybe a less than 1% chance of happening but even this possiblity exists and it maybe the best way to get stability and a permanent peace??
     
  18. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Yes, there are many many variables in this calculation than can change but overall direction will be the same. Pakistan will lose in this battle of attrition.
     
  19. jassi

    jassi New Member

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    @LETHALFORCE : Well i dont think it will happen. Since the creation of Pakistan, they have been told one thing, India is our enemy no one. And i think Pakistaan will never come out from religious thinking. Even well educated people there think from religious angle while thinking about india. Who can forget famous comment of "eating grass".
     
  20. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Can anyone straighten the dog's tail??. Same with Pakistan. The raison d'etre of Pakistan and its army is their enmity against India. I don't think there is even 0.1% chance of them changing.
     
  21. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    The best thing is to continue strengthen our defences that is barriers across borders,improve internal security,modernise our armed forces so that they realise that attacking us would be a lost cause (by that i mean to begin on paper itself India must be a formidable force) and lastly we should sustain and improve the average Indian economic development. Then as the gap between the average Pakistani and Indians widens the common man in Pakistan will see the folly of their confrontation which is draining limited resources into a useless struggle against India.
     

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