Popular Uprisings: Is China the next domino?

Discussion in 'China' started by Ray, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Will China be the next domino?

    The Chinese government is ruthless against all forms of activities that challenges the writ and might of the CCP. It is plagued by the disparity that exists between rich and poor, Corruption is endemic. Food prices are high and increasing. There is a drought in the wheat belt. Unemployment is high.

    So should outside forces turn to democracy-promotion in China?


    Would there be any positive reaction in China to any assistance given to the pro democracy people around in China?

    Or would they be totally petrified at such a thought given the repressive repercussion that would follow?

    Notwithstanding, that such a thought prevails in foreign lands, especially in the US, does not auger well for the CCP.

    By assisting China wholeheartedly into Capitalism and encouraging such activities, the US has converted the Chinese to think of their individual good and not that of the society. This greed can be capitalised upon by countries that are inimical to China. It will increase the divide between the haves and have nots.

    It will cultivate the seeds of discontent and anger.

    The situation will be something that existed under Chiang Kai Shek, the once Great Leader of China.

    The situation would then be ideal for another Mao to arrive!
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2011
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  3. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

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    China will shoot it's way out of the trouble, so I guess Chinese regime is safe.
     
  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    IMHO No. Why no? The answer is below:

    However, there exist several reasons for a rebellion to start. The reasons are below:

    IMHO, outside forces should. However, PRC has Nuclear Weapons. Who will bell the cat?

    There will definitely be support from some quarters, possibly the non-Han quarters, but for the Hans, even if they might not believe in CCP, they definitely will defend PRC out of nationalist convictions.

    Given the volume of US-PRC Trade, I doubt if the US will try to muddy the waters right now.

    PRC, despite being communist on paper, have actually adopted (and/or evolved into) a largely capitalist system, the very system that communism proposes to fight against. True, this is an ideal time for another Mao to arrive. Any such development may or may not be good for PRC/China, from an Indian's perspective, anything that makes it easier for India to take back Aksai-Chin and Shaksgam Valley from the clutches of PRC is welcome.
     
  5. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Difference between PRC and other nations in the arab world having uprisings is that PRC will go to any lengths to quell any uprisings even that means killing its own people.

    For any uprisings in China to be successful, the army must support its masses which is next to impossible with the communist ideology already firmly doctrined in the PLA.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    As I see it, while the US is obsessed by spinning money, they have a greater zen to be seen as the 'saviour of the world' and that their system is the best.

    Whatever maybe said was the cause of the USSR's collapse, they found an amenable ally in Gorbachev and then the total collapse thanks to the drunkard Yeltsin!! To assume that the collapse was natural would be a trifle naive. The US has been chipping away at the USSR and Gorbachev was the coup d' grâce.

    China is riding an economic high on capitalism. Capitalism is a better system than Communism, but it is not a panacea of all evils. In fact, capitalism breeds individualism and greed. Individualism defeats cohesiveness as a Nation (see the condition of the US. Their psyche was vainglorious till their first defeat = Vietnam. Then it was downhill!). Today, their squabbling is unique.

    China succeeded so far since there was no individualism. It is not that Communism brought the societal cohesiveness. it is an Oriental thing. Communism buttressed it!

    Now the seed of individualism has been sown by US assisted capitalism. It deeper than what is seen. The divides are getting pronounced.

    The only thing which may prevent China's collapse is the indoctrinated Han arrogance of Han supremacy!
     
  7. JustForLaughs

    JustForLaughs Regular Member

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    haha this kind of speculation is always amusing. very similar to that joker gordon chang's work. all ill say is this speculation was around 20 years ago, 10 years ago, now. it will probably continue 10 years from now, 20.

    those so called "Like Egypt" points is the same for democracies as well. in fact, few country suffered as little as China during world recession so better be clear what context author are pulling these points from.

    any country that experience political turmoil, any similarity will be linked to China and then we have a new theory of how China will collapse. too funny.



    as for democracy itself, political ideology is not as important to Chinese as everyone believes. China is a good example pure communism? hardly. for China to be strong and the people prosperous, you think any Chinese care what the politics is called?
     
  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Actually I'm wholeheartedly looking forward to such an uprising though for now a beneficiary of China's transition. Meanwhile would appreciate your advice on below:

    * how much do u rely on "foreign" sources to learn about another foreign country (read China)?
    * is multiparty democracy as the solution to China’s political or economic problems or corruption? are there any preconditions for achieving true "democracy", like basic things, to name one - literacy?
    * is "communism" (in your remarks against "individualism") indeed distinctively opposite to "capitalism"? or instead merely different phases in social evolvement?
    * would there be a less nationalism gvnmnt replacing CCP who'd give up the territory claimed by India? (or would voters Han or non-Han support it?)
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2011
  9. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    I think the state is pretty cohesive in China, and it has shown good results as far as poverty alleviation, food-security, infrastructure development, jobs, and scope for individual growth, in general.

    Besides, the public hopelessly lacks any medium to coordinate an uprising. Such an uprising against such a powerful state would require at least 60% of the population's participation, lest it will be ruthlessly crushed.
     
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    NY Times is not India!

    Well Russia was a greater power than China. The US chipped away at it and it collapsed!

    China is from Planet Earth and not from Krypton, or is it?
     
  11. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    It is not the relying on 'foreign source'. What worries is that the idea of a 'revolution' is being thought about in China in a US newspaper.

    The US is capable of quite a few unusual political activities. The Colour Revolutions were not purely indigenous. It did have a whiff and more of US involvement.

    One wonders how is it that this revolution fire is spreading so fast around the Middle East - nations that by tradition are amendable to hard and ruthless government shaped by years of such rule historically.

    China which is an Oriental country has always given great importance to the family and society.

    The posts here by the Chinese itself shows that this is a thing of the past and all one is concerned is having their own posh flats (or apartments) and thinking merely of MONEY and feeling that MONEY is the end all and be all of life! Total individualism!!

    I was rather surprised when one Chinese poster proudly was spouting thoughts that would suit an American better, when discussing Africa and China - that the Africans were lazy and backward etc or words to that effect! It was a totally imperialist like tirade - Individual over Society,

    Communism is distinct in having opposite views to Capitalism. One is Society oriented and the other is Individual oreiented.

    When you read of reports of Mao's days or even novels of Mao's China written by Chinese, one can distinctly discern that the society came first and then the individual, if indeed the individual views were found necessary.
     
  12. JustForLaughs

    JustForLaughs Regular Member

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    im glad you brought that up. one of the early stages of the soviet collapse was them giving up the monopoly on power they had. multi parties with their own agendas arose. (democracy?) another big reason was some groups, the reformists, wanted to reform their market. (capitalism?)

    the worst thing people can do when trying to understand China is to look at all these countries except China itself. yet it is probably the most common approach. no amount of chipping as ever collapsed a strong Chinese dynasty. internal dissent and weakness was the reason a successful uprising could occur. history can tell us a lot. China has collapsed many times.

    but lets say CCP breaks. so what? what happen when Qing collapse? Tibet and Uighur can just sneak away? a huge number of Chinese groups arose to unite China again. that is the other historical lesson for China.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warlord_era

    actually, it will be much worse for those to try and break away. the Uighur greatest nightmares are the generals from Hunan.

    Qing dynasty's General Tso (左宗棠)
    KMT's chief police commander in Xingjiang, Tao Shi Yue (陶峙岳)
    PLA's general in Xingjiang, Wang Zhen (王震)

    i can tell you it is VERY lucky those generals were not around during their riots and attacks on Han Chinese.

    now China is where its at today (size, power, etc), from a collapsed dynasty that was declining for centuries and wasnt remotely modernized. it was invaded by a modernized Japan, during a Civil War. i really wonder if head to head competition with the US and so called chipping is going to break China.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2011
  13. cw2005

    cw2005 Regular Member

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    Current problems in China have been expected by the Central government of China. When they started to balance the gain from industrial cities to the farmers and let the food price increase, the wages in the industries sector rises for fighting for workers formerly supplied abundantly from the country side. Higher than normal inflation is also expected. This is simply the medicine PRC has to take to avoid long term problem of imparity between agriculture and Industrial sectors. It seems the decision was correct as we may see the food supply and price in the world is getting costly. China wants its farmers to stay at home and do what they do best. As I always say, the paramount consideration deep in Chinese mind is not to allow the Foreign Devil to harm China again and repeat the humiliation in last 200 years. As far as USA and its followers (India included in Chinese eyes) post threat to China, there won't be any uprising in China. In fact, if USA really wants (that I seriously doubt it) to see China's democracy evolved quicker, it should treat China fairly rather than as an enemy. After all, Communism, other than the name of it, has ceased to exist in China. If history is any valuable reference, China could only be collapse when the government fails to provide basic necessities to its people. China currently does much better than that.
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    I am watching how many Gordon CHang will appear here.
     
  15. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    As seen from nervous beijing

    B.RAMAN
    In its issue of February 14,2011, the "Global Times" of Beijing, which is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, has come out with a commentary on the success of the Revolution in Egypt. It is worth reading in full and is hence reproduced below:

    Egypt has won a battle, but not the war

    * Source: Global Times
    *February 14 2011
    *

    Street protest put the Mubarak's rule to an end. The regime change may bring progress for Egyptian society, though there is also worry over the prospects for the country and the entire Arab world.

    The first test Egyptian society will face is whether Mubarak's domestic and foreign policies based on rationalism become national policies in a democratic way. Egypt's middle class is weak, bureaucracy and corruption are prevalent and the income gap between rich and poor is huge.

    These problems cannot be solved by democracy itself. They require a hard process of economic and cultural development throughout Egyptian society. Egypt's real risk is that it has not formed a stable pillar to support democratic governance. Revolution broke out and changed the country, but there is no force to sustain that change. Therefore, the country is temporarily under the control of the military. However, in the months to come, the leader will still be elected from the old forces in the Middle East country, since there is still no new force to take over.

    Egypt has a population of more than 78 million. With underdeveloped industry, it produces far less oil than Gulf countries. It is the US' largest aid recipient country in the Middle East and the US ensured that the Mubarak regime was pro-American.

    If Egypt's future national path is chosen with the help of the United States, the significance of Mubarak's stepping down will be greatly reduced.

    If the Egyptians carry out elections by themselves, and encourage the Middle East to make its own choices, nobody could foretell the lasting consequences of this revolution.

    Various forces in the Middle East, including extremist forces, will engage in a brand-new competition to imprint upon Egypt's new social makeup. Egypt may well be the first chapter in a regional saga in this light.

    As the Middle East is still an important balance point for major forces in the world, the region's governance, democratic or not, will have wide-reaching impacts.

    The temporary takeover by the military can be seen as a response to global concerns. However, it is only a transitional military regime, lasting a few months,before the Egyptian society gets ready for democracy.

    Therefore, when the military regime returns the regime to the people, it could really show the difficulty facing the Egyptian revolution.

    http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-as-seen-from-nervous-beijing.html
     
  16. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Gordon Chang maybe a nightmare for the Chinese, but sadly he is not known in India and so his appearing here would be a miracle.
     

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