Political tremors in Tamil Nadu after Modi rally in Trichy

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by parijataka, Oct 2, 2013.

  1. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Few might be aware that BJP opened its account in Tamil Nadu by winning civic polls in Ramanathapuram town in 2011. Currently it has a miniscule 2% vote share in TN but parties such as MDMK and DMDK are looking at it with interest after the response to Narendra Modi's Trichy rally. Support from educated youth, first time voters and middle class is expected to surge for BJP after NaMo's Trichy rally.

    Rethink among Tamil Nadu parties after Modi rally in Trichy

    CHENNAI: The huge crowds at Narendra Modi's recent rally in Trichy have triggered minor political tremors in Tamil Nadu. Parties which viewed his visit and the hype around it with skepticism are being forced to reassess their options.

    Even senior DMK leaders concede that the response to the rally has proved that the Modi factor cannot be discounted in TN . The battlelines may be drawn with DMK moving tentatively closer to the Congress and the AIADMK determined to go it alone with perhaps just the two Left parties for company but the emerging view seems to be that the Modi rally may shape the contours of pre-poll alliances further.

    Significant among the reactions to the September 26 rally was that of DMK chief M Karunanidhi who since his dalliance with the saffron party between 1999 and 2004, has been a consistent BJP basher. According to a former union minister, Karunanidhi is reported to have said after looking at the TV footage of Modi's public meeting that the party could not afford to "underestimate" the BJP anymore.

    There are at least nine Lok Sabha constituencies where the Modi factor may force rivals to rethink their strategy. These are constituencies where the BJP may emerge as a serious contender with help from smaller regional parties and where AIADMK and DMK are likely to be wary of a three-sided contest with a BJP-led formation in the fray.

    For the party - which had a 2% vote share in the last general elections - is expected to see a surge in its core support base comprising the educated middleclass and young and first-time voters in urban constituencies including Chennai, Coimbatore, Trichy and Tiruppur. A chunk of votes are expected to come from the more than 40 lakh first-time voters in TN. BJP's campaign on social media is expected to convert a sizeable section into voters. A VCK leader, who was unwilling to be named, said, "There seems to be a surge among the youth in favour of Modi after his visit to Tamil Nadu."

    BJP claims that the party's reign in Karnataka has already helped RSS gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu's border areas such as Krishnagiri. Once considered too insignificant for even smaller regional parties to strike a deal, it appears to be gaining supporters in new territories. For starters, MDMK which has small pockets of influence in southern and western TN, has made it known that it is keen on a tie-up with BJP.

    The saffron brigade is also banking on its surprise win in the 2011 civic polls in Ramanathapuram in the south to see it through in the Lok Sabha elections, according to Thamizhisai Soundarrajan, one of the party's national secretaries from the state. "There were doubts among political parties here as to whether Modiji can be a crowd puller in Tamil Nadu like in the North. The success of the Trichy meeting has changed their perspective," she told TOI.

    Political observers do not rule out the possibility of the DMK ditching the Congress in favour of the BJP. Tamil Nadu BJP leaders are already debating a dream combination that would include the DMK, the DMDK and itself. They are also optimistic about the ruling AIADMK shedding its reservations and opting for a tie-up with them. Senior leaders point out that the number of votes a tie-up with the BJP may bring against the backdrop of the perceived Modi fervour could far exceed the 3% combined vote share of the CPI and CPM besides some minority support. The DMDK too is assessing the Modi effect and whether it would compensate the loss of minority votes. "The impact of Modi's visit has proved that the BJP is not an untouchable in Tamil Nadu any more," said party's national secretary L Ganesan. "Except for the Congress, the Left parties and the Muslim parties, there are chances of alliances with any party in Tamil Nadu," he said.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2013
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  3. sasi

    sasi Senior Member Senior Member

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    There is a sense of vaccum in TN, there is a high chance BJP can win few seats.It can even go solo.
    It's high chances, it should contest directly against CONGRASS, LEFT and MUSLIM candidates.
     
  4. Dinesh_Kumar

    Dinesh_Kumar Regular Member

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    BJP's Southern Chapter started with victory in Karnataka, where Mr. Yeddy came to power promising " Party with a Difference" and after he got caught in corruption cases, says , "I haven't done anything which previous Governments also haven't".
    Huh?
     
  5. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Actually Yeddy was done in by Governor Bhardwaj and that IAC's Santosh Hegde. If you may recall, karnataka high court had dismissed all the allegations against Yeddy and he rightly deserved his position as CM back. It was a game played by the ghang of four Advani, Sushma, Gadkari & Anant. I call these four the Raavan ka kunba. They had done maximum damage to BJP. Instead of projecting Yeddy as a martyr, they decided to demonise him even after he got his name cleared.

    However in March 2012,the High Court of Karnataka quashed the FIR registered against him regarding the Mining scam. A division bench of high court of Karnataka passed the order stating that "Suspicion cannot be a ground to tarnish the image and reputation of a person who is holding a Constitutional post. Even during the course of argument, a specific question was put to Lokayukta counsel to produce any material to connect the petitioner for alleged offences, but he was mum and did not indicate any favours shown by Yeddyurappa as the chief minister to any mining company". In May 2012, the Supreme Court, temporarily stayed the case on this matter and ordered an official CBI enquiry, to be completed within three months.[54] On 25 July 2012, Karnataka High Court granted anticipatory bail to Yeddyurappa in a case relating to alleged irregularities in denotification of government land in 2009.
    HC strikes down case against BS Yeddyurappa - Economic Times
    http://www.firstpost.com/politics/hc-quashes-land-grab-complaint-against-yeddyurappa-614858.html
    Court quashes corruption case against Yeddyurappa | NDTV.com

    Read these links and see for yourself thatb yeddy was made a victim of conspiracy of Congress and Advani using Governor Bhardwaj and Santosh Hegde.
    Yeddy deserves his honour back and must be brought back to BJP asap.
     
  6. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    BJP always has presence in Coimbatore, Tiruppur and Tiruchchi districts. Coimbatore and Tiruppur voted for Vajpayee when NDA ruled.

    So Modi will have more response in these districts. These districts are populated by entreprenuers and the slowdown of India's economic growth has affected the three regions badly and the hype on Modi's pro development politics will lure them.

    Also for ADMK the Kongu region (comprising Coimbatore, tiruppur and 4 other districts) is a traditional strong hold of ADMK with the Majority Gounder community support (who also are sympathisers of BJP).

    Its a gain for BJP irrespective of alliances (in terms of vote share only as BJP cannot win even one constituency alone).

    It will be a loss for ADMK as it will lose some vote percentage (in terms of ,multiple end fight or BJP going into Alliance with DMDK and MDMK) in the Kongu Nadu and this may allow DMK to win some surprises in this region.

    It will be a sure win for MDMK and DMDK to ally BJP as they can win some seats riding this modi wave. Especially in the Kongu region.

    DMK is on a suicide mission with Congress, as they lie strangled in the corruption webs of congress (read Kanimozhi and her mother in 2G case) so a triple end fight in the state will be in their favor..

    If ADMK can come down and enter into alliance BJP and MDMK (and DMDK if possible :shocked:), the alliance will become the winning horse (a clean sweep has more probability).
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2013
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  7. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    will tamil voters vote a north indian and a north indian party????

    i dont think so.they simply vote for local leaders even if they are not the best(tamil politicians are very good administrators.i have lot of respect for them)
     
  8. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    like Karunanidhi or Jayalithaa or even PC.

    South Indian imho are too soft, but some of friends in Chennai (read urban youth) are very much impressed by Modi.

    Let's wait for election and see, but if UPA III comes in then India is gone for good.
     
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  9. Dinesh_Kumar

    Dinesh_Kumar Regular Member

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    Sir, i didnt know that..................even today man on the street in Blore, who reads Times of India thinks Yeddy was corrupt.........

     
  10. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Modi is a west Indian and BJP's roots are from RSS which started in Maharashtra, western India which is closer to Tamil Nadu than north. :D
     
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  11. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    The lies of congress propaganda against yeddy cud have been exposed only by BJP but due to Anant Kumar and coterie of Advani, sushma and gadhakari, Yeddy was forced to quit BJP. NAMO had infact very strongly opposed it and told Advani & co that it will have negative effect but Advani overrulled him stating that promise of clean governance will bring BJP back to power in karnataka.
    It is even more surprising that educated lot and young voters of Karnataka seem to go by hearsay rather than read the truth. I was surprised to see your post about yeddy and so decided to put the records straight.
     
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  12. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    come on.still india is seen as two halves.north and south.
    on your word modi is north west indian politician
     
  13. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    dont even utter such words for fun,it gives a herat attack
     
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  14. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    In TN voting pattern changes wrt Assembly and parliament elections.

    People will vote for Change in the assembly.

    But they mostly vote for a strong leadership in the center.

    You need to see how the voting happens in TN.

    Take for example the 1977 and 1980 General elections.

    the AIADMK + INC won the 1977 elections.

    The DMK + INC won the 1980 Elections.

    This happened because People in TN wanted Indhira Gandhi to be the prime minister.

    Same thing in the NDA era.

    in 1996 people voted for the UF which formed the Govt.

    in 1998 People voted for the AIADMK + NDA (ADMAK withdrew the support in 1999)

    in 1999 People voted for DMK + NDA.

    In these two elections people wanted Vajpayee to be the prime minister.

    In 2004 and 2009 The NDA lost the election because the polling in TN was fractured on secular lines with Advani Leading the NDA campaign. But this happpens to be the darkest chapter of TN's members in the Lok Sabha..

    In terms of a North Indian Contesting in elections in TN, Indira Gandhi would have won in any constituency of TN even if she has contested as a Independent candidate. Same Goes for Vajpayee. Even Modi is thinking of contesting in Madurai (Which happens to have a considerable Sourashtrian community voters).

    Just because we oppose Hindi, doesn't means that we are idiots or less patriots.
     
  15. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    And regarding the question on the Administrators in TN, Please go through the following comparision between TN and Gujarat on the social indicators .

    Per capita Income (PPP in 2008 $)
    Tamil Nadu = 3835.05
    Gujarat = 3782.87
    India = 3337.33

    Life Expectancy in birth.
    Tamil Nadu = 66.2 years.
    Gujarat = 64.1 years
    India = 63.5years

    Mean years of schooling
    Tamil Nadu = 4.79 years.
    Gujarat = 4.54 years.
    India = 4.10 years.

    School life expectancy
    Tamil Nadu = 10.57 years
    Gujarat = 8.79 years
    India = 9.62 years.
    Link:
    http://www.in.undp.org/content/dam/...human_development_index_for_indias_state1.pdf

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    93% houses in TN are electrified and 90% of houses in Gujarat are electrified.

    http://www.censusindia.gov.in/.../India/Source_Lighting.pdf

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The infant mortality rate in Tamil Nadu is currently estimated at 30 deaths before the age of one year per 1,000 live births,
    The under-five mortality rate is 36 deaths per 1,000 live births.

    Infant mortality in Gujarat is estimated at 50 deaths before the age of one year per 1,000 live births,
    The under-five mortality rate for Gujarat is 61 deaths per 1,000 live births.


    Percentage of children between 12-23 months of age who received all recommended vaccines.
    Tamil Nadu = 81%
    Gujarat = 45%


    Percentages of people having a Body Mass Index lower than normal.
    Tamil Nadu: Male=16.5%, Female=21.5%
    Gujarat: Male=26.2%, Female=30.3%


    Percentage of children delivered in hospital.
    Tamil Nadu = 90%
    Gujarat = 55%

    Links:

    http://www.rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-3 Data/TamilNadu_report.pdf

    http://www.rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-3 Data/gujarat_state_report_for_website.pdf
     
  16. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    in all these elections local parties are the winners,while national parties get consolation prizes.these alliances are very unstable.the tamil parties tame national partiess with their mp seats
     
  17. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    nothing new,gujarat has a single,best administrator while tamilnadu gas many good administrators
     
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  18. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Does your state have 24*7 uninterrupted power supply to whatever percentage has been electrified? :)
     
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  19. Free Karma

    Free Karma Senior Member Senior Member

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    A lot of people here really love Modi. I have no idea how modi mania caught on here, but he is quite popular here.

    The first time I heard of him was from my team lead at work when the spectrum scandals broke out, we were coming back from lunch talking about politics in general and he was showering praises upon him. I was a little bit taken aback, because of the amount of pure faith he had in him. Till now I had only experienced cynicism and pessimism whenever I've talked about politics to anyone.

    Although I dont know how the alliances are going to go, The DMK is still universally reviled by a lot of people for land grabbing, media monopoly, entertainment monopoly, 2g scams and other issues.

    I expect ADMK to do well these elections, I get the feeling that JJ harbours separate ambitions of her own. Currently it seems like she might run independently, and then think of alliances (i.e use the good result to bargain with who ever emerges as the largest party). Her aim is obtain a 40/40 like how the DMK did in the previous elections. This wouldve been easy but there have been some minor issues that have come up that might have rubbed people the wrong way, Like the vishwaroopam issue, where a lot of people were angry about her handling of the issue where she basically stated that the state could not cope with violence brought on by fringe muslim parties . While on the surface this looks like a muslim ally appeasement policy, but there have been other films that have had problems releasing...due to very strange reasons, that seem to suggest she is trying to dominate the film industry like how the DMK did (although claiming otherwise). But she has done some good things in the face of increasing inflation like the amma's canteen, and the reduced price vegetable shops, and finally getting a unified auto fare system. So will the good outweigh the bad? I think so.

    The BJP and the Congress have not been major players in the state for a while now, due the percieved dravidian-aryan thing. The trend should probably continue for the congress. But the BJP I think will fare better due to the modi factor. A lot of people are also alarmed at the large number of conversions happening in the southern end of the state. Also Both these dravidian parties constantly bash the majority, while they claim there is no god and that hindu rituals are bogus, they will happily take part in festivals of the other religions and praise them. DMK has always been this way, while JJ after damaging her name with the minorities due to the anti conversion bill wants to gain back their support I wonder how many people are tempted to vote directly for the BJP here instead of going through the known face. The challenges for the BJP are the lack of a big known face. They dont really have too many known people locally.

    The DMDK,which is literally falling apart, although they are allies with the ADMK, the part is a house of cards that is falling apart, while Vijaykanth is too drunk to notice it is falling and thinks he is flying. He does not have a good reputation, he comes drunk to rallies, beats people, screams at people while in a daze, and in general has become the laughing stock of the political world. A lot of leaders have defected to other parties, like the DMK and the ADMK at this point. Becoming the leader of the opposition at this point seems like a very lucky fluke at this point. The PMK I think has fallen out of favour with the people and the recent attempt to regain the spot light backfired, as they tried to hold a rally around the mahabalipuram temple, and while doing so weakened the structure while standing on top of it, and and putting flags, and violating the sanctity of it, the leader was booked later, and obviously the whole act didnt go down well with the people.The DMDK might recieve some of these votes, that have left the PMK but I dont think they will perform that well.

    Personally though I want to see other parties getting involved a bit more. I'm quite sick of both the ADMK and the DMK. They both have massive egos and are equally corrupt. I actually wouldnt mind the BJP getting a bigger role here, more competition is good, and will keep these two parties on their toes. Because at this point they are really comfortable with how things are, If you get voted out, you will be back 5 or 10 years later because there is no where else to go. If they heat is on you, just bring up the Sri lankan tamil issue and divert attention, it's so easy. If I were a SL Tamil I'd be pretty pissed, because of how badly they use this. But Overall, I think a ADMK-BJP alliance seems most likely.

    While I will be voting for modi (or the allies), I'm actually voting against congress, than for modi. To be totally honest, some of the stories about have the too good to be true feeling to them. People expect him to sit on his PM chair, wave his magic wand and expect everything to change. Also another thing that seemed contrary to what people talk of Modi was the raghuram ranjan headed development report that put Guj in the second category. But lets wait and see, the fun of the elections is just beginning!


    Edit: Also....First post! Hello DFI!! :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2013
  20. sasi

    sasi Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Tshering more or less it's ok. My district getting 24/7. Don't know others. There maybe some shortfall.
    If kundkulam-nuclear is goes online,it will be better. So no worries.
    Post poll alliance is possible with BJP.
    U see nearly 7 months for election. If amma shows open support now, CBI will hunt her.
    Congrass already started the game. They are trying to change defense lawyer in case going in banglore high court. Supreme court stayed it.
    So amma is patient and also we are watching coming ASSEMBLY election. After assembly ele.,we may see some movements.
     
  21. sasi

    sasi Senior Member Senior Member

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    percieved dravidian-aryan thing is dying and people are quite sick of both the ADMK and the DMK.
    This is wht i am talking abt, there is a sense of vaccum. Bjp can explore more urbanized areas..
     
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