Pakistan's Black Pearl (Gwadar): Hype?

Ray

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Pakistan's Black Pearl

The hype about a Chinese-built port on the Arabian Sea says more about Islamabad's desperation than it does about Beijing's imperial ambitions.

BY URMILA VENUGOPALAN | JUNE 3, 2011

Upon returning to Islamabad, the defense minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, made two eyebrow-raising announcements: first, that Beijing had agreed to take over operation of Gwadar port in Baluchistan, and, second, that he had invited the Chinese to build a naval base there. China's leaders, seemingly caught unaware by these statements, promptly denied them. .....

.......Wall Street Journal opinion piece provocatively titled "China Breeds Chaos" claimed that "China wants to get into the great-power maritime game by operating ports throughout the Indian Ocean." Is Gwadar an isolated case or an important platform for the projection of Chinese influence in the region? .......

For much of the past decade, a theory called the "string of pearls" has gained currency, with proponents suggesting that Beijing is seeking to expand its influence by developing a "string" of commercial ports and listening posts -- "pearls" -- along the rim of the Indian Ocean. The term seems to have been first coined by defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton in a 2005 report "Energy Futures in Asia" and elaborated upon by dozens of armchair strategists since. A 2006 study from the U.S. Army War College described this purported strategy as a "manifestation of China's ambition to attain great power status and secure a self-determined, peaceful, and prosperous future" and hailed the development of Gwadar's port -- then in its early stages -- as a "win-win prospect for both China and Pakistan."

.......It is easy to understand why Beijing would be keen to build and operate a port in southwest Pakistan. Gwadar's strategic location at the crossroads of the global energy trade -- opposite the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf -- offers Beijing a handy transit terminal for Middle Eastern energy imports. With the Middle East likely to remain the largest source of China's crude oil imports, a significant portion of this supply will continue to transit the Indian Ocean. China therefore has an obvious interest in securing vital sea lanes. A commercial port facility offers a relatively uncontroversial means to achieve an important energy security objective.

Some have taken the "string of pearls" vision a step further, suggesting that military factors are also at play. In particular, some observers have claimed (so far without much evidence) that China is constructing naval bases at Gwadar, among other places. For example, Robert D. Kaplan writing in Foreign Affairs in 2009 claimed: "The Chinese government has already adopted a 'string of pearls' strategy for the Indian Ocean."¦ It is building a large naval base and listening post in Gwadar, Pakistan, "¦ a fueling station on the southern coast of Sri Lanka "¦ and a container facility with extensive naval and commercial access in Chittagong, Bangladesh." .......

It all makes sense -- in theory. A naval base in Pakistan would be a strategic asset for China. As a rising power, being able to project power in the Middle East and parts of Africa -- regions on which it is heavily dependent for natural resources -- is undoubtedly attractive. A naval base would also enhance China's influence in Central Asia, another area of increasing importance for Beijing. Also, with U.S.-Pakistan relations under strain and with American troops due to begin drawing down from Afghanistan in 2014, some, such as Nayan Chanda in a recent Times of India article, argue that China will look to seize an opportunity to fill a power vacuum.

But the truth is that Beijing is treading carefully, and with good reason. A combination of compelling economic, security, and political factors ensure that a fully functioning commercial port -- let alone an operational military base -- remains a distant prospect.

By far the most obvious deterrent to development is the endemic instability in Baluchistan province. Despite being the largest (and arguably most mineral-rich) of Pakistan's four provinces, Baluchistan has suffered decades of neglect by the central government. Chronically underdeveloped and beset by a low-level insurgency led by Baluchi nationalists, the situation on the ground has worsened considerably in recent years.........

Although much of this opposition is aimed at the energy industry, Gwadar has also become a focal point of protest. Hopes that the construction of the port would generate development and employment opportunities for locals have been dashed. Instead, most of the jobs created were handed out to members of other ethnic groups. Moreover, during the port's construction phase, members of Pakistan's military and civilian bureaucracies appropriated vast tracts of prime coastal land around Gwadar, according to an International Crisis Group report. .....

......In 2004, for example, three Chinese engineers were murdered in Gwadar, and in 2007, a bus carrying Chinese engineers was bombed in the southern town of Hub. An already tense security situation in Baluchistan has deteriorated over recent years as the insurgency has spread into non-tribal areas such as the southern Makran belt, where Gwadar is located........

.....Regardless of how sophisticated or efficient its new port might one day become, its usefulness to Beijing will ultimately hinge on how smoothly goods can be transported the 2,000 or so kilometers to and from the Chinese border. Already, the absence of road links between Gwadar and the rest of Baluchistan has hampered commercial activity. A local media report in January 2010 noted that the central government has been forced to subsidize the high cost of transporting goods from the port to other parts of the country.....

Even if China takes matters into its own hands by financing the construction of a road from Gwadar to the provincial capital of Quetta, as a Forbes article last year observed, security will remain a key challenge......

.......The ambitious vision articulated by former President Pervez Musharraf -- to turn the port into a Dubai- or Singapore-style trade hub -- seems to have fizzled out. Gwadar is open for commerce, but only up to a point.

Having become operational shortly after the Chinese completed the first phase of development in 2007, the port only received its first commercial cargo ship almost two years later, in July 2009. It has not seen much use since; a local newspaper noted last year that some port equipment had already started to rust. A planned second phase of (again Chinese-led) development has yet to begin, suggesting that Beijing may have other priorities. .....

Indeed, both financial and diplomatic considerations are likely to discourage China from deepening its involvement in Gwadar. These same factors make it doubly unlikely that Beijing would seek a military presence there.

The undefined but presumably substantial cost of establishing a naval base in an unstable part of a volatile country is one obvious deterrent. Such a financial commitment would in turn necessitate an open-ended political commitment, one that China's traditionally circumspect strategists would not undertake lightly.

Motivating their caution is Beijing's wariness of adding new sources of tension in Sino-U.S. relations. The Pentagon, already unnerved by China's rising military expenditures and its emerging naval dominance of the South China Sea, would not look on benignly were the People's Liberation Army Navy to drop anchor in Gwadar.

Might China someday seek a naval presence in Gwadar to protect its vital energy supply lines and possibly challenge Indian naval domination? It is perhaps with this eventuality in mind that China built the port in the first place. All indications, however, are that the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea will remain the focal points of Chinese maritime strategy for the foreseeable future.

For now, Pakistan's bold claims about China's commitment to develop Gwadar have less to do with Beijing's foreign-policy ambitions and more to do with Islamabad's desire to show Washington that it has other powerful friends. After the humiliation and hurt feelings caused by the United States' unilateral action against Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in early May, Islamabad's clumsy effort to play the "China card" was a blatant face-saving maneuver -- as Beijing's immediate rebuff made clear. .......

Pakistan's Black Pearl - By Urmila Venugopalan | Foreign Policy
Notwithstanding the writer's attempt to downplay the importance of the Gwadar port and the Chinese 'string of Pearls' strategy, while indeed Gwadar is taking time to be fully operational, its strategic value militarily and economically cannot be undervalued.

The Chinese are Masters at Deception and are also good at playing their cards slowly and deliberately. The fact that they are hard at it to develop a road, rail and a oil and gas pipeline from Xinjaing into Pakistan through POK, itself is an indicator that they are serious about the military and economic value of Gwadar.

It is true that the US will not allow China to drop anchor in Gwadar so easily. That is possibly why the US is cock-a-hoop with Bangladesh and going whole hog with naval exercises and Obama stating that he wants to visit Bangladesh. In short, the US wants to get a toehold into Bangladesh before the Chinese influences Bangaldesh into their camp. That the Bangladesh Govt has not accepted the Chinese feasibility study on development of a deep sea port (which would have assisted Bangladesh by having a container base) makes one wonder if there is more to it than what meets the eye.

The fact that the US is once again pressuring Pakistan over the involvement of their holy cow, the ISI, in nefarious activities in Afghanistan and elsewhere is an indicator that things are hotting up. That indicator is evident, given that the glamorous Foreign Minister of Pakistan was rather vocal in pique over Adm Mike Mullen's statement, when in other times, they have merely made some pathetic bleats when the US went ballistic in its way into Pakistan's affairs.

One must watch the space. Baluchistan maybe next on the cards for a slight US nudge! Given Pakistan's neglect and the US' single minded zeal to pursue its national policies to include doling out largesse without money pinching, anything can happen!
 

sob

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This article is from the Sunday Guardian

Pakistan Court stops China at Gwadar naval port

The Pakistan Supreme Court has issued an order that prevents Chinese companies from taking over the strategic Gwadar port for management and administrative purposes. The stay order stops all foreign companies from playing such a role after the Singapore Port Authority, which had 60% shares in the port, and was operating Gwadar since 2007, was asked to exit at the end of its contract. The control of the port was to be handed over to Chinese companies after Sinagpore's exit. No foreigner can now take control of Gwadar until the stay order is vacated. A source within the Pakistan government said that the stay order can be extended indefinitely, thus blocking the Chinese.
 

sob

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A more complete report is available from Dawn Dt. 5th September

SC moved against sale of Gwadar Port's shares | DAWN.COM

The Watan Party filed the petition at SC's Lahore registry through Barrister Zafarullah Khan and stated that 60 per cent shares of Singapore Port Authority and 20 per cent shares of Adeel Karim Dhedi Group in Gwadar Port were likely to be sold to China Harbour Engineering Company.

He submitted that Gwadar Port's shares were the property of people of Pakistan and could not be sold.The petitioner prayed to the court that sale of the shares to China or any other country should be restrained.
 

farhan_9909

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gwadar is neglected by this govt totally

Otherwise it does has importance and much more importance for China

anyway i heard that more provinces will be created in balochistan as well.
 

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