When India-Pakistan wargames become real
Pakistan is conducting its biggest military exercises in 21 years and at the weekend thousands of troops backed by fighter jets took part in a mock battle to repel a simulated Indian military advance and inflict heavy casualties. The manoeuvres were designed to test a riposte to India's Cold Start doctrine of a rapid and deep thrust into Pakistan in a simulated environment, but you are never far from real action on the heavily militarised border between the two countries.
On Sunday, as the mock battle unfolded in the deserts of eastern Pakistan, the two armies were engaged in a real exchange of fire a few hundred miles away, along the border in Punjab. Both sides reported the firing in the Shakargarh sector and as is the norm blamed the other for starting it. It didn't last long and by the standards of Indo-Pak artillery duels it was a blip. But what is interesting is it took place along a settled section of the border as distinct from cross-border firing along the Line of Control separating the two armies in disputed Kashmir. Shooting across the international border has been rare, although there have been incidents in January this year and in July and September in 2009.
NightWatch intelligence, which closely tracks developments across South Asia, says the Shakargarh sector carries the weight of history and perhaps there is a message behind the shooting. This is the site of a decisive battle during the 1971 India-Pakistan War in which Indian rocket launcher units destroyed Pakistani army armoured brigades ending hostilities in that sector. Firing in the location is always a reminder of December 1971. So the question is were the Indians trying to remind the Pakistanis about that battle nearly four decades ago even as Pakistan carried out the wargames named Azm-e-Nau 3 or New Resolve 3?
India, Pakistan wargames have in the past caused jitters especially when thousands of troops are massed near the border along with heavy armour and you are not sure whether they are only meant for exercises or is it a preparation for a real war. Back in 1987, India conducted Brass Tacks, the largest military exercise of its kind across South Asia in the deserts of Rajasthan a few hundred miles from the Pakistan border.
The exercises included the bulk of Indian Army and its mechanised and armoured formations; in short all the paraphernalia for a real war, concentrated on Pakistan's sensitive border areas. For a Pakistani, it would seem the ideal location from which to launch a cross-border operation into the Pakistani state of Sindh that could cut Pakistan in half.
Others saw Brass Tacks as a threatening exhibition of an overwhelming conventional force. Pakistan responded with manoeuvres of its own that were located close to Punjab. As tensions rose, the hotline between the two countries was activated and officials from both sides tried to ease fears. Eventually Pakistani President General Ziaul-Haq travelled to India, ostensibly to watch a cricket match, but also hold talks to defuse the crisis. Later on both sides agreed to a phased withdrawal of troops to peacetime locations.
Since then India and Pakistan have agreed a set of confidence building measures designed to reduce chances of misreading each other's intentions. Each country is committed to informing the other about plans to exercises if they are above a certain level.
NightWatch intelligence,
For the Night of 19 April 2010
India-Pakistan: Indian troops opened "unprovoked fire" at the Pakistani border in Shakargarh Sector, ARY News reported 19 April. For more than 30 minutes, Indian forces fired at least 90 rounds and mortar shells at the boundary area. No casualties were reported.
Note: This is important for two reasons. First, it is the first shooting across the international border in years. Cross border shooting in this sector is serious because past wars have been won and lost here.
The second reason this is significant is that Shakargarh is the site of a battle that ended the India-Pakistan War in 1971. Indian multiple round rocket launcher units destroyed two Pakistan Army armored brigade in a strike division without ever engaging the tanks in direct fire in a matter of hours. The next day or so, Pakistan sued for peace. Firing in this location always is a reminder of December 1971. The timing suggests this incident is related to the next.
Pakistan: The armed forces have conducted the largest coordinated field training since 1989, according to Pakistani news sources. In Exercise Azm-e-Nau 3" (New Resolve 3) troops supported by fighter aircraft conducted a mock battle with India in the largest military exercise in 21 years, signaling that the old rival remained its biggest security threat. The purpose of the exercise is to remind the nation that India remains the primary threat to Pakistan and to test the "riposte" doctrine.
The exercise was held east of Bahawalpur in the central region of the international border with India. Some 50,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen participated. The Pakistan Army tested its ability to "counterattack" an Indian war preparation cycle by rapidly taking the fight into India before Indian could seize any Pakistani territory. Anywhere else in the world, this would be called a preemptive strike doctrine, rather than a counterattack doctrine.
Somewhat ironically one US-based commentator said, "It is meant to signal internally that we are back to where we belong," said Moeed Yusuf, from the Washington DC-based think tank, United States Institute of Peace. "For the world, it signals that India remains the principal threat."
Pakistan Major General Muzammil said India had been informed about the plan - which is required by bilateral agreements. He pointed out that India had conducted around 12 military exercises over the past two years - to test its Cold Start doctrine. "We cannot remain oblivious to what is happening around us."
Exercise Zarb e Momin in 1989 involved 200,000 personnel from all services and was the first exercise to test the riposte or counter attack doctrine. F-16s in the Pakistan Air Force apparently performed well for the Prime Minister, senior cabinet members and the senior military leadership who observed.
This exercise is good for Pakistan Army morale, but in any conventional fight India would win easily because they are more numerous and better equipped. That realization means that any future conflict between these two states will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Pakistan must use its nuclear missile force to survive an Indian conventional attack. That is the lesson of the crisis in 2002 that barely avoided escalation to full scale hostilities. That also is why there must be no more wars between India and Pakistan.
Two rockets fired from Pakistan into Punjab
Gurdaspur: Indian and Pakistani troopers exchanged gunfire after two rockets were fired into Indian Punjab from Pakistan, Border Security Force (BSF) officials said here on Monday.
BSF Punjab range Deputy Inspector General Jagir Singh told IANS that the rocket attack on Sunday night in Bhamial sector of Gurdaspur district was followed by automatic gunfire.
"Two rockets were fired from the Pakistan side on Sunday night. It was followed by weapon firing into Indian territory. Rifle firing is very rare from Pakistan and it happened after a long time," Singh said.
He added: "Our officials (BSF) retaliated and we fired around 800 to 900 rounds. In the past also there has been rocket firing from Pakistan side but till date they have not taken any action against the culprits and nothing substantial has come out of their investigation."
According to the BSF, nearly 15 rocket shells were fired from Pakistan towards the Amritsar area in June and September last year and in January this year.
Besides, cases of illegal infiltration and smuggling across the border are also on the rise.
During the last month alone, in two separate incidents on the border, BSF officials gunned down three Pakistani intruders and recovered 26 kg heroin and fake Indian currency with a face value of Rs.83 lakh.
In the meantime, BSF has lodged a protest with their border counterparts Pakistan Rangers and demanded immediate action against the miscreants.
"Taking cognizance of last night's firing we have registered a strong protest with Pakistan Rangers today (Monday) and we have demanded a thorough probe into this incident. We are waiting for a concrete reply from their side." Singh said.
"We have increased patrolling near the border and beefed up security in the entire area," he added.
BSF guards 553-kilometer long fenced international border with Pakistan that passes through Punjab.
Last month a 15-member delegation from Pakistan - including representatives of Pakistan Rangers - had come to Amritsar to participate in the four-day biannual meeting, March 28-31, with the top brass of BSF to discuss issues pertaining to border security.
Pakistan war games show of force for India: analysts
KHAIRPUR TAMEWALI, Pakistan — Pakistan is flexing its military might near the Indian border in massive war games analysts say are aimed at putting on a show of force for its nuclear-armed rival.
All branches of the military are taking part in the exercises named "New Resolve", which despite the Taliban militant threat in the northwest have so far focused on drills for conventional war on the eastern border with India.
Fighter jets roared overhead, shots rang out and tanks lumbered through the desert sands in the biggest war games in two decades in the Khairpur Tamewali area of Punjab province, 600 kilometres (about 400 miles) south of Islamabad.
The Pakistan Air Force's F-16s, French Mirages and Chinese-made F-7PGs engaged imaginary targets on the ground with a hail of bombs and missiles.
Up to 50,000 troops will take part in the games, which began on April 10 and will end on May 13 just 60 kilometres from the Indian border.
"The exercise seems to have nothing to do with the western borders," retired Lieutenant General Kamal Matinuddin, a defence analyst, told AFP.
"The way the military demonstrated its prowess by quickly mobilising troops and the war machinery showed the war games are actually focusing on the eastern borders," he added.
"Our armed forces must be capable of responding to emerging challenges on the eastern border by devising new tactics in response to new Indian strategy."
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since independence in 1947 -- two of them over the fate of the Himalayan territory of Kashmir -- and there have been repeated shows of military force on both sides of the border.
Recent tensions with India and reported new military strategy coming from New Delhi "have triggered a hot response from Pakistan," defence and security analyst Brigadier Mahmood Shah told AFP after witnessing the exercises.
"Our military keeps on putting to test its doctrines on the western border with Afghanistan but we really needed to test our capabilities focusing on conventional war on the eastern border," the retired brigadier said.
A campaign of suicide attacks and bombings in Pakistan blamed on the Taliban and other extremist Islamist groups has killed more than 3,200 people in less than three years across the nuclear-armed country of 167 million people.
Pakistan has diverted troops to battle against Taliban militants increasingly seen as a threat to national security in the northwest, with the US also pressuring Islamabad to go after militants who attack in Afghanistan.
The military has launched multiple campaigns in the last year to dislodge Taliban fighters from their strongholds in the northwest -- although the establishment still sees India as the primary threat.
But army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who witnessed the exercises along with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and other top civil and military officials, said Pakistan had no aggressive intent.
"We harbour no aggressive designs against anyone but self defence is our inherent right and we will protect Pakistan at all costs," he said at a ceremony attended by reporters flown in to witness the spectacle.
He added that Pakistan's army was "committed to play a positive role in contributing towards strategic stability in the region."
Relations between Pakistan and India have been bedevilled by mistrust and tensions, exacerbated by the November 2008 attacks in the Indian city of Mumbai.
In February, the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours held their first official talks since the Mumbai attacks, when 10 Islamist gunmen killed 166 people in the bustling financial capital.
India blamed the attacks on Pakistan-based militants and said talks could only resume if Islamabad took concrete steps to bring those responsible to justice and cracked down on groups operating on its soil.