Pakistan’s New Kashmir Policy? - Track II dialouge Oct 2011

Discussion in 'Internal Security' started by ejazr, Oct 23, 2011.

  1. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Pakistan s New Kashmir Policy Lastupdate:- Sun, 23 Oct 2011 18:30:00 GMT GreaterKashmir.com
    A realization that Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has done more harm to itself than any good?

    Those of us who attended the 6th and 7th Chaophraya track-two Dialogues on Indo-Pak relations (October 16-19, 2011) in Bangkok were in for a surprise when leading strategic thinkers and media representatives from India and Pakistan started discussing the ever so contentious ‘K’ issue. One retired senior official from the Pakistan military asked the Indians present at the dialogue bluntly: “Why do you Indians want to discuss Kashmir? We are not keen on a discussion on Kashmir. There are other more important things to be discussed”

    This was not a lone view coming from a retired Pakistani official; others from the Pakistani contingent seemed to be either toeing a very moderate line on Kashmir (in comparison to Pakistan’s traditional views on the issue) or trying to rank other issues such as Afghanistan and Balochistan much above Kashmir. The Indian stand seemed to be curiously different toot: some spoke about the positive changes underway in Kashmir and some others pointed out the continuing occurrence of human rights violations in J&K. Even this was a departure from the usual Indian defensive stand on Kashmir. There was a certain attitude of accommodation, sincerity and effortlessness to the Indian stand on Kashmir.

    The Pakistani climb-down on the core issue of Kashmir was coupled with an increasing focus on Afghanistan and the evolving endgame there. Not only were the Pakistanis emphatic about their accusation that India is trying to contain Pakistan in Afghanistan but were also negative about any potential strategic accommodation or cooperation with India in Afghanistan. Most of them were loud and clear about what Pakistan would want India to do vis-à-vis Afghanistan: Get Out!

    Deconstructing the new Pakistani stand on Kashmir
    So what do we make of Pakistan’s new stand on Kashmir? What explains this new, nuanced, and yet unprecedented Pakistani lack of interest in determining the direction in which Kashmir heads? Indeed, one would argue that Pakistani leadership does make occasional references to the UN resolutions, human rights violations in Kashmir, need to ascertain the wishes of the Kashmiri people etc. in their policy utterances, world forums and official meetings. An yet as one Pakistani participant pointed out this is how states behave: unless there is an official declaration of the radical change in official policy, states will always make their policy changes known in very subtle ways and ‘without prejudice to their held positions’. Hence Pakistani official statements on Kashmir ‘without prejudice to its held positions’ are not surprising.

    Let’s return to the question what explains the new Pakistani policy shift on Kashmir. Is it because the Pakistani establishment has realized that they are increasingly losing legitimacy and ground in Kashmir and that the people of Kashmir are no longer looking towards Pakistan for deliverance? Or is it because Pakistan has realized that it hardly has any international backers on the Kashmir issue and that terrorism as a state policy is increasingly looked down upon by the international community? Is it due to the so-called Indian ‘successes’ in addressing the Kashmir issue with increased political sensitivity? Or is it because Pakistan is bogged down in Afghanistan and hence unable to commit any material, diplomatic, military and political resources for the Kashmir cause? Or is the apparent Pakistani shift a mere tactical measure in the sense that given its isolation in the international community and the precarious situation that it faces domestically, Pakistan has decided to lie low on Kashmir and will revert back to its traditional positions and strategies once it feels more secure and confident? Or is it because Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has indeed positively transformed due to a serious internal change of heart and strategic priorities? And does that change of heart stem from a realization that Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has done more harm to itself than any good?

    I don’t think anyone has any obvious answers to these questions. It’s most likely that the perceptible change in Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has come about due to all the above factors. Indeed, it would be better if Pakistan’s new Kashmir policy has multiple sources, because if there is only one source for this policy change, there could, at least theoretically, be a reversal of its policy in case there is a change in that source.

    On its part, New Delhi should be wise enough to make use of this strategic window of opportunity and try to settle the conflict in Kashmir through an internal political process and the conflict over Kashmir with Pakistan through a sustained bilateral dialogue. If New Delhi thinks that it can afford to ignore Kashmir because Pakistan has lost its interest in the issue, it will lead to disastrous consequences for the people of Kashmir has shown in the past that they will be able to fight their own fight with New Delhi without any external helping hands. If anything, the Pakistani involvement has only given Kashmiris’ indigenous struggle against New Delhi a very bad name.

    New Delhi should therefore attempt to implement the various suggestions put forward by the various Kashmiri parties, dissident and mainstream, committee of interlocutors and the reports produced by the Prime Minister’s Round Table conferences.
    (Happymon Jacob teaches at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
     
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  3. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    If true, I would only take it as a tactical retreat while they regroup. Last years "intifada" is now a distant and quite forgotten memory particularly after it was shown that paid goons were behind it.
    Pakis cannot be trusted. If Pakistan is really sensitive about Kashmir and wants it, keep PoK and get out of Gilgit Baltistan as a permanent settlement. And yeah we can give a few square miles of Indian Kashmir as well but GB should be back in Indian control.
     
  5. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    You must be joking right ?

    If at all it comes to PoK or Nothern Areas, Pak will not bat an eyelid in choosing Northern Areas over PoK.

    NA is one of the most strategically important areas because it provides connectivity to China.
     
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  6. SpArK

    SpArK SORCERER Senior Member

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    I dont think they will jeopardize the very factor that's driving the nation to its existence.

    A complete set of rhetorics can be witnessed in UNSC with the new admission in coming months , of-course backed by the all weather mvuaah mvuaah guys.
     
  7. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It is as strategically important for india. That's why no I am not joking. If baat goes to laat, we need to make sure that area comes to us in any post war settlement.
     
  8. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    If the Pakis give up Northern Areas, how will they do their chumma-chaati with the Chinese? They will lose their link to China.

    Of course, the best thing would be for GB to be accessible to India. But IMHO, that is possible only after the breakup of Pakistan.
     
  9. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    I think that pakis would be ready to lose their so-virgin areas than to lose POK or Northern areas. If and when India acquires a hold on those places, Pakistaniyat would be shattered, and pak would be in pieces. Or it may happen other way around i.e. after pak is in pieces and Pakistaniyat is shattered, India will acquire hold on POK & NA
     
  10. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Nothing is acceptable of that sort too brother. Entire state of Kashmir is a homeland for Kashmiri people who are composed of the hosts Kashmiri Pandits,sikhs and Buddhists who are not even being asked their opinion of their own home-state by this crappy self-claiming 'liberal' panel! I mean, if this was the case with your state or my state, we'd be going and killing the separatists ourselves! At least I would be a part and parcel of it.

    Entire Kashmir belongs to India by ancestry.

    WE just have to wait for Pakistan to collapse, then walk over and take it.

    Such panels of "Indo-Pak" talks must NOT be allowed. This is the sign of leftist, ultra-liberalistic self-destructive mindset that is evident in politics of countries like Sweden, which is extremely dangerous for India. There has to be a limit in which people can "think" and that doesn't include seceding territory.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2011
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  11. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Haven’t we seen exact the same act from the Pakistanis when Musharraf was in charge, and once he was out, we got a return gift as Mumbai terror attacks.

    One thing is coming out quite starkly, looking at the Pakistani behavior over the past decade and few days/weeks/months, if the US pushes them hard on the back foot, these people act as pussies, if they see growing support from the US, they tend to misuse that “to have their say”.

    A demoralized country, a weaken economy, and internationally isolated is a perfect recipe to deal with Pakistan, you can have such a mix and Pakistani establishment is more than willing to listen.

    As yusuf is putting it, its at best a tactical retreat, you would be making a blunder if you are reading too much into this, don’t make the mistake. The peace doves and the peace inc (read "aman ka tamasha" - toi/geo types) will love it on either side, but we better keep our guard on alert.

    Solution to Kashmir, wishful thinking, but then MMS and peace doves tend to dream a lot!
     
  12. agentperry

    agentperry Senior Member Senior Member

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    when u know the trajectory of the missile you can intercept it. bu when you dont know its trajectory then you can do nothing but awaiting disaster.

    these criss cross from pakistani side and constant tackling should be taken care off. dont know whats in their mind
     

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