Pakistan’s grand march

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by ajtr, Jun 24, 2010.

  1. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Pakistan’s grand march

    By M K Bhadrakumar

    Often derided as a ‘failing state,’ Pakistan presses ahead with a foreign policy agenda that meets the country’s national priorities.


    The Pakistani diplomacy has been presenting some stunning success stories. It is coolly cruising toward a ‘nuclear deal’ with China. The deal doesn’t involve any Hyde Act prescribing the contours of Pakistan’s Iran policy or a Nuclear Liability Bill freeing Beijing of culpability for faulty performance.

    Nor has Pakistan agreed to have a ‘minimum deterrent’ or shown willingness to cap its inventory of nuclear weapons already exceeding India’s. It seems no power on earth can stop Pakistan getting a ‘waiver’ from the Nuclear Supply Group (NSG). Not even the United States.

    Compare it to how the UPA government tied itself in knots to conclude a nuclear deal with the US. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh staked the survival of his government and resorted to dubious methods to re-charter the course of coalition politics for reaching his destination. He is still to explain his failure to fulfil his assurances to parliament. Of course, the ENR technology will not flow to India.
    Why is Pakistani diplomacy doing so well? The army chief Pervez Kayani has just concluded a 5-day visit to China, which raises Sino-Pak defence cooperation to new heights. Yet, Islamabad is preparing for the second round of the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue for which secretary of state Hillary Clinton is visiting Pakistan next month.


    Hardly three months after the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue in Washington, the Obama administration is sitting down with the Pakistani leadership — civilian and military — for another round of high-voltage diplomacy. Against this backdrop, Kayani’s visit to Beijing underscores that Islamabad is not lacking in foreign-policy options if the Obama administration resuscitates the Bush-era doctrine pampering India’s regional vanities.

    The self-assuredness of Pakistani diplomacy is such that on the eve of the strategic dialogue with the US, Islamabad ambled across the final lap of negotiations to sign an agreement with Tehran over a $7 billion gas pipeline from Iran. It was done with such manifestly cavalier abandon. The agreement came hot on the heels of the latest UN sanctions against Iran that the Obama administration robustly pushed through.

    Why is it that Indian diplomacy chooses to settle for vacuous rhetoric and grandstanding in the ties with the US — a gala state dinner for Singh or an elegant pair of gold cuff links for external affairs minister S M Krishna? India lives in its region and can the US ensure its preeminence?

    Our smaller western neighbour, which we often deride as a ‘failing state,’ presses ahead with a purposive foreign policy agenda that meets the country’s national priorities of energy security. The Iran gas pipeline project throws into relief the dismal truth that India lacks a foreign policy that serves its national objectives of growth and development.

    Spin masters
    Every time the subject comes up, the spin masters serving the establishment come up with some lame excuse or the other. The latest thesis is that India could be ‘floating on gas reserves’ and might indeed be ‘energy-secure.’ True, Reliance is developing new gas fields under lucrative pricing conditions provided by the government and competing Iranian gas imports are, arguably, best avoided. But that has nothing to do with the country’s energy security as such. An honest discussion about the cost of Iranian gas becomes practically impossible, given the opaqueness of the government’s pricing policy.

    Then, there is shale gas, which is lately touted by our spin masters as a promising energy source ‘likely to overtake’ — in the womb of time — both conventional gas as well as liquid fuels. Unsurprisingly, Reliance bets on shale gas. And needless to say, shale gas extraction, which involves tapping natural gas trapped between layers of shale rock, requires latest American technology and the Reliance is currently buying into it in a significant way.

    Of course, Reliance’s emergence as a ‘diversified, vertically integrated player’ in the energy sector could be a matter of national pride. But can national pride be equated with the government’s energy security policy? The heart of the matter is that India needs both the Reliance fuelling wealth as well as Iran’s fabulous South Pars gas fields feeding the gargantuan Indian economy for decades to come.

    Quite obviously, the US disfavours Iranian gas feeding the Indian market on a long-term footing as it could deprive the Big Oil of lucrative business. Two, the US seeks to block Iranian energy exports until such time as US-Iran normalisation materialises. Three, the US is fundamentally opposed to the emergence of an Asian energy grid involving Iran, Pakistan, India and China, which would have potentially far-reaching strategic implications for American global strategy.

    The Indian leadership has failed to show the transparency that a ‘failing state’ like Pakistan possesses in defining its hardcore national interests vis-à-vis Iran. Pakistan also has a political elite that is corrupt and which may harbour a sense of vulnerability to American pressure.

    But what distinguishes its foreign-policy making is that the GHQ in Rawalpindi as the custodian of national interests, draws the bottom line. Which, in turn, enables Pakistani diplomacy to turn to its advantage the growing Sino-American rivalries in the central, south and west Asian regions.

    Ironically, the Obama administration doesn’t object to Pakistan’s independent foreign policy. Nor does it seem to mind if Pakistan disagrees with its agenda towards the situation around Iran. The Indian leadership’s fear psychosis is clearly unwarranted.
    (The writer is a former diplomat)
     
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  3. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The difference is that Pakistan has both the sole super power and the one pretending on its side. The former needs it to fight its war and the other uses it as a strategic asset. Pakistan milks them both.
     
  4. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    ^^Even managing superpowers by its side is an art.Either be like Chinese or be like Pakistanis.
     
  5. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    uh even whores earn more then PhD student...... so what should be the choice.................?
     
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  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Depends on your idea of fun LOL!!
     
  7. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    be a master who can afford one....there is no middle marg.
     
  8. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Alright, so, Pakistan is the whore. US is its pimp. The other pimp is China. But US is also the thanedar and China is the wannabe thanedar. But India, the poor hard working baniya. With a whore being in the neighborhood, India's business is being spoiled. Further, the whore has a bro(LeT, JuM..etc) and they frequently disrupt Indian baniya's house. When the baniya goes and complains to US thanedar, the thanedar does nothing because its his whore's brother. Now, what should the baniya do? If he does nothing, whore's bro will get emboldened and start inflicting more damage.
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I guess we need to get baniyas in south block. They might have the answer to all this.
     
  10. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Gujju baniyas??!! :p
     
  11. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    certainly pakistan have better diplomats as well as better foresighted policymakers(read army) then india. when it was time to make friendship with usa our policy makers remained non-aligned. now when its time to take our relationship with china at new heights then they are cosiness with usa which is even not giving us an equal treatment
     
  12. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Yeah, someone needs to make me the PM. Rajya Sabha seat for me and my mates. Good God, will have to suck up with Sonia G. Cant do that. I think i have no chance.
     
  13. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Nah, you should start sucking up to Rahul G or Priyanka G, then in about 40/50yrs time, you can do a manmohan. :D
     
  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    40 to 50 years. i dont know i will live that long. Till then if we dont have people managing well, we will be confined to the sidelines of the international game. I dont think it will happen. We will be up there on the high table.
     
  15. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Yep, I too believe that India's time has come, but we still need effective policy makers. But seems like we have dithering bunch who are afraid to take any action with conviction. What we are left with is, pakistan acting and India reacting.
     
  16. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It wont last too long. USSR being as powerful as it was, could not stand up with the better managed US to last the distance. Pakistan will not last the way its going.
     
  17. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Yusuf, thats the trick: We are not competing with Pakistan here. We are competing with Pakistan's sponsors and their will to keep Pakistan afloat. So, the question is can the sponsors last the distance?
     
  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Conflict of interest will take care of that as India rises.

    US is certainly sucking up with Pakistan for obvious reasons. China to contain India. Once India gets out of its regional reach to a global one, China will have to rethink if it wants to confront India and undermine its own development as a super power.
     
  19. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    India is a big monster. A key strategic location, huge population with increasing educational and economic clout. This gaint cannot be allowed to realise its potential for the present super-power or the wannabe one to have monopoly on the throne. So, they will throw everything they have got, Pakistan will not be allowed to die easily.
     
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  20. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    looks like in coming few days Indo USA Alliance is going to get stronger and as soon as USA is out of Afganistan pakistan will have only one Godfather left ie China.
    Lets wait and watch if China want India to get closer to USA . Only reason India will ally or get closer to USA will be to counter China. In 2-3 years Asian sub continent game will become interesting .
    China will be running to save their own A** and only God will save Pakistan.
     
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  21. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Back to the topic, people. Thanks.
     

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