Pakistan will implode if the US does not leave Afghanistan: Imran Khan

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by ejazr, Jan 10, 2011.

  1. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/09/pakistan-implode-america-leave-afghanistan

    The assassination of Salmaan Taseer has shown only too clearly the growing extremism in Pakistan, the radicalisation of its society and the polarisation that is taking hold. This is not just between the religious and the secular, but also the polarisation that the "war on terror" has caused between the various religious sects.

    There were no Pakistanis involved in 9/11 and al-Qaida was then based in Afghanistan. The only militancy we were suffering was among the tribal groups who had fought against the Soviets and whose idea of jihad was a war against foreign occupation. Yes, there was sectarian violence, but suicide bombers were unheard of.

    So after 9/11, when General Musharraf chose to ally with the Americans in the "war on terror", it was a fundamental blunder. Overnight he turned the jihadi groups created to fight foreign occupation from supporters into enemies, people prepared to fight the Pakistani army because of its support for the US invasion.

    Musharraf then made a second mistake in sending the army into the tribal areas. Our own tribespeople immediately rose up in revolt. Rather than co-opting these people – and, remember, every man is armed – we made new enemies. Then along came the American drones to kill more of our people. Soon, the American "war on terror" was seen as a war on Islam by the majority of Pakistanis and certainly by the Pashtuns in the tribal areas. Terror and extremism intensified.

    Every year extremism gets worse, our society becomes more radicalised and the bloodshed grows. This is how you must see the context of this assassination. Society is now so polarised that because Taseer criticised the blasphemy law he was seen as criticising Islam. But that was not what he said. This assassination would not have happened before the "war on terror".

    Imams of different sects are being killed now, and mosques and churches bombed. The fanaticism keeps getting worse. As disturbing as Taseer's assassination is, just as disturbing is the way his assassin has become a hero. That is why this whole thing is so dangerous, it shows where we are headed.

    I have been predicting this from day one. There is no military solution in Afghanistan, only dialogue, so the supreme irony is that in siding with the Americans all we have done is send the levels of violence up in Pakistan. The "war on terror" has weakened the state and then, thanks to the George Bush-sponsored National Reconciliation Ordinance in 2007, which allowed an amnesty for all the biggest political crooks, we now have the most corrupt government in our history. The "war on terror" is destroying Pakistan.

    Clemenceau once said: "War is too important to be left to the generals." He was right; for us it has been a disaster. There is incredible anti-American sentiment here, and the drone attacks only fuel that hatred. We need a change of strategy, otherwise the worst-case scenario will be achieved here; an unstable nuclear state.

    It's not a question of there being no room for moderates, it's that moderates are being pushed towards extremism. Taseer didn't say anything anti-Islamic, he just questioned the blasphemy law and whether it should be used to victimise innocent people. His death has caused many moderates to think there is no point in being a martyr. If it makes people such as myself think twice about what we say, then where does that leave us? We are all now at risk.

    Crime in Pakistan is now at a level that breaks all records. Yet 60% of the elite police forces are now employed protecting VIPs. Where does that leave ordinary people? Young Pakistanis are being radicalised and the Taliban grow in strength. The US is no longer fighting just the Taliban, it is fighting the whole Pashtun population.

    The consequences for Pakistan, with its population of 180 million, are enormous. And there is an impact, too, on Muslim youth in western countries. Graham Fuller, the CIA chief of staff in Kabul, wrote in 2007 that, if Nato left Afghanistan, Pakistan security forces could overcome terrorism and extremism. But, as long as the Americans push Pakistan to do more in the tribal areas, the situation will worsen – until Pakistan itself implodes.
     
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  3. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Pakistan will implode anyway, whether the US leaves Afghanistan or not. It's just a question of time.
     
  4. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Salamns Taseer's assasination and the adultation Qadri got shows us that something got wrong bad enough and the military will not be aa an effective ruler of country as before gradually pakistan is becoming more like Afghanistan with the clergy and radicals consolidating their power.The westernized elite will not be able to as effectively rule the country as before.Now I have a scenario which someone needs to simulate suppose the masses in Pakistan got so radicalised that they will no more be controlled by the feudal lords and the clergy will do a marxist type revolution with the feudals and the westernized elite as the class enemy in the garb of religious bigotry what will happen to the current power structure?The feudals will be out of the power equation and the army will be radicalised including the officer corps?or there will be a rebellion against the anglophone officer corps?

    Salman Taseer's murder is a milestone in Pakistans history where it shows that country will be plunged more into bigotry and may become a hot potato for everyone to handle including China.China can no more afford to be an ally to such a pakistan because of the uighur issue.We don't know how long it will take for such a metamorphosis to occur but it will definetly occur in the next 5-10 years. The anglicised elites will find it increasingly difficult to live in Pakistan like before that is for sure because the common man will not tolerate them like before
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2011
  5. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Actually, the impending implosion of Pakistan is a headache for the world, and for India in particular. Though it is a foregone conclusion that Pakistan will implode sooner rather than later, the nukes are bothersome - when Pakistan becomes like Somalia or Afghanistan, I hope the nukes are secured by then!
     
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  6. S.A.T.A

    S.A.T.A Senior Member Senior Member

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    All the more reason the US should stay put up.
     
  7. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Let us actually examine what happens after the US leaves. First thing would be will the largesse still come? I really doubt.
    If there is no pressure on the Taliban on the afpak border, then we can expect all hell to break loose inside pak.
    Seriously if Imran thinks his country will implode with continued US presence there, then the situation might be worse if they leave. All in all, good for the world if pak goes one way or the other.
     

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